The scam...again

The headline in the New York Times read, "Arizona Limits Construction Around Phoenix as Its Water Supply Dwindles." Then the story began:

Arizona has determined that there is not enough groundwater for all of the housing construction that has already been approved in the Phoenix area, and will stop developers from building some new subdivisions, a sign of looming trouble in the West and other places where overuse, drought and climate change are straining water supplies.

The decision by state officials very likely means the beginning of the end to the explosive development that has made the Phoenix area the fastest growing metropolitan region in the country.

But the devil is in the details. The state won't revoke building permits that have already been issued. Instead, it's hoping "new water conservation measures and alternative sources (will) produce the water necessary for housing developments that have already been approved."

Gov. Katie Hobbs said construction would continue in Phoenix and its suburbs, as well as Tucson. “We’re going to manage this situation,” she said at a news conference, according to the Times. “We are not out of water and we will not be running out of water.”

Actually, we are.

The news is deceiving. It sounds as if the new restrictions will finally stop the sprawl machine. Instead, they will largely apply to localities such as Queen Creek (photo above). It has grown from a patch of agriculture and desert in Pinal County to nearly 60,000 people (82% white), almost all in single-family tract houses. And it relies entirely on groundwater.

In fact, Arizona depends on groundwater — which took thousands of years to accumulate — for an astounding 45% of its water needs, including 54% in Maricopa County. When I was growing up, most of Phoenix's water came from dams and reservoirs on the Salt and Verde rivers. But that was then.

Pinal County lacks the water of the Salt River Project, so relies on 47% of groundwater to meet its demands. Pinal has been pumping groundwater for decades, so much that subsidence is a serious problem. And this was before places such as Maricopa and Queen Creek ballooned into massive suburbs of Phoenix.

As I've written before, the Central Arizona Project was sold as a way to wean Pinal County off groundwater and onto CAP water. The results have been disappointing, with the CAP providing about 32% and only 13% in lieu of groundwater pumping.

In addition, the much-touted Groundwater Act with its Active Water Management Areas and "100-year supply" requirements for new developments is largely a scam. Nobody's going to give us desalination plants. A second CAP canal won't help with the Colorado River in a historic drought and too many straws in the river and the effects of human-caused climate change. The federal government wouldn’t spring for that, either.

Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how much the new restrictions apply to Buckeye, which already lacks the water to become a city nearly the size of Phoenix. Or plans for Douglas Ranch west of the White Tanks, which is being sold as a place for 300,000 in "master planned communities." Research shows neither has the water. The restrictions won't prevent development outside Benson from destroying the San Pedro, the last free-flowing river in the Southwest.

Central Arizona is in the middle of the Five Stages — past denial and anger (often directed at me) — now at bargaining. Maybe the tribes will sell us enough water! Eliminate agriculture! Even cut back championship golf! Turn the lush, shady historic districts of Phoenix into gravel and skeleton trees! Look for loopholes in the restrictions, bribe where necessary! Climate change is a hoax!

Anything, anything, to keep Ponzi scheme sprawl going. Acceptance will be a long time coming.

RELATED: The groundwater act.

The dam problem.

The Central Arizona Project.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comments

[Cal Lash]

AMEN.
THANKS JON FOR YOUR CONTINUONING REPORTING ON ARIZONA SCAMS.

[Jim Edmondson]

Great article, thanks Jon. I'm sure there will be many fancy plans put forth, all without substance, and all approved. The corruption and greed will continue until Arizona is wrung dry like an old, tattered sponge, and the last drop of water is gulped.

[Azreb]

I’m not going to post an update on justice delayed is justice delayed is justice delayed. Rogue will just steal it, put it in as a new column and make hundred$ if not thou$and$ of dollar$ and I’ll get squat.

This professional writing business is a dog eat dog world.

[Mariam Cheshire]

I wrote a book that shows the fate of Phoenix. "Return to Sanctuary - Plague"

And I said exactly what Jon has said for a long time. "We ain't got enough water."

Mariam Cheshire

[Cal Lash]

One would expect many insane arizona politicians supported by destructive immoral developers to continue to murder the enviroment and thousands of species.

But Hobbs? A democratic "liberal?"
She gives 50 million to the pave everything ADOT?
Now she promises to make sure we dont die of thirst while bringing more water using industries, more tract housing and more residents? Doesn't that sound sweet?

I've been wanting to drop off a couple of old books just in case she didnt know or forgot.

Killing the Hidden Waters by Charles Bowden and Cadillac Desert by Marc Resiner.

Meanwhile in the real world the Coyote living at the Phoenix Country Club is feasting on residential cats and breeding local dogs.

When we are gone the Coyotes will rule.
Thats the "Good News" per Cactus Ed Abbey.

[DoggieCombover]

My, my, my such cynicism...now, I am not a Pollyanna or a denier, but some perspective is called for here. There is no doubt in my mind that the current path we are on is unsustainable.

But what we have here are projections based on a model--over a 100 year time frame!! This is simply voodoo, no way any meaningful conclusions can be reached over that time frame. Having worked with many professions using many models, two things I've learned: 1) Believers confuse models with reality, and 2) models are based on numerous assumptions, none of which can be reasonably verified, they are merely best guesses.

It's good to finally have the discussion about the shell game of the "certification" process at the highest levels of AZ government, but changes in technology, changes in behavior, and changes in codes and standards will obliterate those assumptions. Much as what is already happening in industry where they are becoming almost a closed system by treating and reusing water that goes into their processes. Phoenix is already talking about this. Something similar will happen with housing developments.

And if all else fails, as we all know, water flows towards money...

[AzRebel]

Doggie, I prefer the wisdom of the west.

Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting.

No nonsense back then. Life and death.

No models. Actual fact. We've had droughts here that have lasted 100 years. We're at about year 22. You can't solve drought issues for 7 million people by making the number 10 million people.

I agree with your modeling comments. They are manure as a general rule.

But the math. The actual math never lies. 7 million too much. Subtract, don't add.

[B. Franklin]

When it came to land and water, my father-in-law was a very wise man.

And he used to say "never buy land off Project. Never." And he never did.

Barring a series of events so catastrophic that they're almost unimaginable, SRP will always be able to supply its customers.

The towns, businesses, and people living off Project are another matter. Good luck to them.

He also used to say that the only way to get people to conserve water was to charge them what the water really cost.

That day may be coming sooner than anyone thinks.

[Diane D'Angelo]

"the only way to get people to conserve water was to charge them what the water really cost."
Start with golf courses, please.

[DoggieCombover]

Aaand it's always go directly to demonizing golf courses. What about soccer fields, softball/baseball fields, (especially spring training facilities which are only used a few months of the year!), city parks, football stadiums etc. etc.?

The reality is, besides providing open space, reduction in urban heat island effects and other benefits, golf courses are the most intensely used outdoor facilities compared to any of the above. Golf courses provide recreation basically all daylight hours, year round. When's the last time you saw a baseball or football game at 9:00 AM?

[Cal Lash]

Why Grass?
I remember many
SAND LOT games

THE BIG PICTURE.

Nevada is trying to eliminate grass and still coming up short on having enough water for the growing human population.

We need walls at all four borders and no population growth. As a result the Sun City die offs should reduce the population. HA!

But not to worry. Mohammed has approved the take over of world golfing.

8 billion and counting as we hurtle towards the Sixth Extinction.

[Bill Pearson]

"8 billion and counting as we hurtle towards the Sixth Extinction." (CL)

Here's the good news Cal, most of us won't be around to see it happen.

BTW DC, comparing a golf course to a soccer field is like comparing an elephant to an ant.

As far as Sun City, the largest number of homes sold here are to current residents already living in the state of AZ. Long live Sun City.

Now back to my quiet retirement where i don't give two shits about anything. Amen.

[Cal Lash]

Bill, i have
great grandkids.

Personally i find golf as silly as tiddly winks.

U said
"Two shits about anything"
BP
There in lies my reason for a die off.
Amen back to U

Ps. Did you burn those books i sent you?

[Cal Lash]

I favor a 10 percent tax increase to all persons living in private aged restricted retirement communities such as Sun City's to be distributed to Arizona public schools but not so called Charter schools or to Private schools.

[Pat]

Many a racketeer did strike it rich by sticking a straw in Barry's ditch.

[Cal Lash]

The ditch was co sponsored by Carl Hayden and Barry Goldwater with the backing of LBJ. Another president making a mistake on water. (T.R. and flood irrigation.)
Opposition at the time had a faint voice.

I just reached out to Edward Abbey, he spoke from his Great Sonoran Desert resting place and said,
Its time to shut down the Ditch.

[Bill Pearson]

Still got your books set aside to return to you Cal. Never burned a book in my life, never will. Surrounded by a library of great writers (and some not so great) and as much as my wife says get rid of them; i simply can't let them go.

[Helen Highwater]

Get a kindle. Save the earth.

Do you think paper grows on trees?

[Dave Parish]

Cal:
Never thought marriage could "last forever." Never did the aisle waltz. Not contributing to the worlds population, at retirement, my property taxes should be reduced 50%. Schools claim over 60% of this tax. Because of law... this overpayment reeks.

[Cal Lash]

As an 82 year old republican
im all for public schools.
I don't mind the taxes.
But Private and "Charter" schools.
No tax money. No vochers.
Parents pay
Plus pay for public schools.

[Cal Lash]

My first school was a one room country school. With a horse barn and 2 Outhouses.
Grades 1 thru 8 in the same room. One school Marm. It exists today as a Hostorical School house used as a community center.

[Cal Lash]

"Property taxes."
I quit paying them 20 years ago.

How about
"one cannot own land but
lives with the land."

And in regards to this article
by Talton,
taxes on air and water are here.
When the WELL goes dry?

[Paulie Pavilion]

Legislature - freeways build more freeways. Shift the money from public (yuck) transit and build more freeways. Finish the 303. Start the 404 !!!!

Mayor - what? We ain’t got no stinking water shortage. We got too much water. Move here now. You ain’t gonna die of thirst. You might drown. Whatsa matter with you can’t you swim? Come on over.

[Joe]

If water is appropriately priced then water scarcity is nothing to be scared of. The arguments against more developments remind me of "peak oil" scare tactics or of the Simon–Ehrlich wager. I'd write more, buy I have a tee time at a championship golf course in 25 minutes.

[Cal Lash]

Yep, ",appropriately" priced water will work.
Another way to reduce the human population.
I'd write more but i have important things to do. More important than chasing my balls around on the grass.
How silly!

[eclecticdog]

Coyote spotted in my neighborhood (NW 12th Street & Indian School) yesterday. Neighbors freaking. They do not realize they are always nearby. Keep the stray cat population down.

Reading Charles Bowden books and wish I had started reading his work earlier.

[Cal Lash]

Helen, my books are Sajuaro parchment.

Electric dog. Glad to hear you are liking Charles Bowdens "scribblings."
Chucks writting is not for everyone.
Thry are not novels.
But for some it is outstanding.
He was hired by folks associated with Tucsons educational institutions.
His resultant study got him fired.
The University of Texas turned his study into the book, "Killing the Hidden Waters" in 1977. It continues to sell today. Get the later copy with his Introduction.
When i turn on the faucet.

His book Red Line is pure Chuck.
Pushing the Accelerator.
Dakotah was found on his computer after he died. This book closley resembles a lot of my early years. Bowden and i were both born on a hot sweaty day atop the black soil of the midwest.

Blood on the Corn was about Reporter Gary Webb and the corrupt US government. It was published in Matter