My new Gene Hammons Novel (a mystery due out in the next year or two) is set in 1936. In my research, I found that much of the Midwest and South suffered from a terrible drought, which claimed thousands of lives (separate from the Dust Bowl). But Arizona had plenty of rain that year — temperatures were also lower than today — and Phoenix was protected by the dams and reservoirs on the Salt River. And therein lies a tale.
The population of Arizona was around 443,000 — fewer than live in today's Mesa. Phoenix clocked in at 55,000 or do, double that for the metropolitan area (remember, the city then was only around 17 square miles). Had today's mega-drought hit then, Phoenix would have been fine. Even with climate change.
But population growth has long been the primary driver of Phoenix's leadership. On the flag of the Arizona Republic in 1936 was a bug headlined "How Phoenix Grows!" listing population increases and building permits (The "flag" is the name of the paper atop the front page; the "masthead" lists the newspapers leadership, typically on the editorial page). So as of 2020, Arizona's population is 7.2 million, with Phoenix the nation's fifth most populous city — though far from No. 5 in other measures of quality and influence.
However, like it or not, Arizona exerts enormous national consequence because of the drought. Arizona is now the third (soon to be second) most populous Western state, behind California and Washington. Not least because of its dependence on Colorado River water, with too many straws in the river from Nevada and California, too.
Arizona likes to toot its horn about water conversation, the 100-year groundwater requirement (LOL), blah, blah, blah. It won't be enough if the state continues to add people, especially in regions with iffy water supplies or gamed reports about water availability. Water goes where the money flows, so you can be damned sure (dammed, too) that California won't lose its supplies.
Magical thinking abounds — building desalination plants, another CAP canal, "cooling concrete," etc. None of this will happen. Running the air conditioning with power from Palo Verde (North America's largest nuclear generating station, helpfully built upwind of the fifth most populous city) is necessary. But how long before the water to cool it runs out?
Regular readers know what I think should happen: Dismantle Glen Canyon Dam, stop and reverse sprawl, plant an abundant canopy of shade trees, and pull back into the footprint of the Salt River Project. Also, for the areas outside the historic oasis, create a real desert aesthetic for buildings and landscaping. Hint: It wouldn't involve gravel "lawns." The Sonoran Desert is the wettest in the world and you can hike its extent without walking on gravel.
Water investments in native cottonwood trees are far more useful than another pod of tract houses in "master planned communities" (which are neither master planned nor communities). You can also plant mesquite, willow acacia, desert willows, and more. Look at the photo galleries on the history section of this blog and see how Phoenix was a city of shade trees.
That won't happen either because the Real Estate Industrial Complex will do anything, anything, to keep the Ponzi scheme going (with championship golf!).
Every time I'm back in Phoenix, I'm shocked at the ongoing desertification of the city, even in the central city and Arcadia. Tearing down shade trees, ripping out grass, hedges, and other landscaping and throwing down the bounty of the Arizona Rock Products Association. Newcomers — and almost everybody is — plants a "lawn" of gravel and smugly says, "We live in a desert."
No, you morons. First, most of the Salt River Valley is a natural oasis. Second, all that gravel and pavement, with some palo verdes and "shade structures," worsens local warming. Third, the loss of real shade trees depletes a critical means to fight climate change.
Phoenix is a national model of precisely how not to address living with this drought. But when the bill comes due, and the developers have all decamped for the Coast, the consequences will be horrific. Population growth will stop and reverse. By 2100 if not before, Phoenix will be unlivable. But unlike the Hohokam, nobody will be trying to preserve the ruins of the Super Walmarts.
Stick to your kniting, Jon. Seattle is a craphole - what do you say about THAT?
Posted by: terry dudas | October 25, 2022 at 05:04 PM
You and I are dreamers but my dreams have different solutions than yours.
Limit the amount of clean water that flows into the oceans. Build power and flood control dams. Syphon excess spring runoff across the mountains to where it is needed. Build a dam and locks under the Golden Gate Bridge. Dredge the Columbia river. Plant Atlantic salmon on the west coast . . . .
Posted by: Bill Wald | October 26, 2022 at 12:04 PM
No mention of agriculture, the bulk consumer of water in our state and the west coast in general. Should we just let AZ farmers freely use water as they see fit? Should California be sucking up the Colorado river to grow water-intensive almonds, most of which are exported and not even consumed by Americans? Can we all please just cut back on how much meat we consume?
I agree with what needs to change in urban planning.
Posted by: hellfire | October 26, 2022 at 12:28 PM
Regular readers know what I think should happen
Yes. And nothing changes. For decades now. In line with my comments on this suggested topic in your 10/20/22 return post.
Which raises an interesting point: Everything you are talking about in this post is cultural. Why, it's almost like you are lamenting the failure to transmit and preserve cultural knowledge about how to live responsibly and accountably. Hmmm, who else does that? Could it be... cultural conservatives? The same people who were mocked mercilessly for correctly predicting the cultural decline that has occurred?
Same core lament (people are being socially irresponsible)...same loss of control over the institutions charged with transmitting cultural knowledge to the population (now anything goes and nothing matters)...same prophecy prescription which will be right some day (repent or else end times)...same reaction from existing corrupt power structures (exile, ridicule, unpersoning)...
Think about it.
There is a reason it is called Conservation. And it should not be surprising that after decades of neoliberal wokery and cultural degradation in this country that environmentalism, good government, and public morals all find themselves in a remarkably similar "place." -- on the outside looking in on a teetering, corrupt edifice that spews empty rhetoric about "democracy" but values its own self-preservation above all.
Posted by: TD | October 26, 2022 at 10:34 PM
Translation?
Posted by: Cal Lash | October 27, 2022 at 10:15 PM
I'm trying to think of something that American conservatives "conserve".
Certainly not the environment.
Certainly not a woman's bodily autonomy.
Certainly not public education.
Certainly not equality of opportunity.
Certainly not the right to vote.
Certainly not democracy in general.
So far all I can come up with is the constant conservation of their overwhelming smugness.
Then, of course, there's conserving the rights of the one per cent; keeping them safe from any possible emotional discomfort or fiscal harm.
And always "the right to bear arms" which is obviously the cornerstone of American conservatism.
Posted by: B. Franklin | October 29, 2022 at 03:30 PM
I started following Jon while he was still at the Republic. The reason he caught my eye was because he was offering common sense ideas to issues that challenged the community.
At that time, the city, county, state and country were headed in a bad direction. Picture a graph where the line of progression is headed downward at a 45 degree angle.
I must have been really naive at that time because I thought that the "powers that be" would see his ideas and take him up on his advice. Little did I know that they would do the opposite.
Fast forward to now and we are still at a 45 degree downward angle and we are speeding faster and faster to who knows what hell awaits us.
As to the blog, I would vote to keep it as a photo and memories site for us old folks.
After millions and millions of words posted, WHICH CHANGED NOTHING, I vote we stop the political stuff which has tens of commentors who still try to sway a person here and there. Failure is never fun and I"m afraid that the overwhelming tide of uneducated, ignorant citizens have bulldozed us into the pit of irrelevance.
Posted by: Ruben | October 31, 2022 at 09:13 AM
Much gloom and doom! While I have learned from and enjoyed the historical photos, the "political stuff" is the main reason I follow this blog. It's the debate that matters, even if minds are rarely changed, insight and understanding is enhanced, otherwise we continue to dwell in our unchallenged silos and echo chambers. Which is a big part of what is wrong in the world.
Posted by: DoggieCombover | November 01, 2022 at 10:40 AM
At this point, the best thing for Phoenix metro would be to suffer a catastrophic failure of the power grid July through August. At least we'd find out who really belongs there.
Posted by: Pat | November 01, 2022 at 11:02 AM
Pat,we wrap in the wets sheets and sleep outside on cots and mom prays for a breeze.
Ruben makes valid points but i think we should keep a balance of both history and news. And the column need not always be about Arizona.
How about Cincinnati or Miami Flordia or Spain or Uruguay?
Or the where the profit goes from mixing Asphalt, Concrete, Sand and water.
Posted by: Cal Lash | November 01, 2022 at 02:40 PM
Good thing we have unlimited water resources so we can absorb however many people come up from Mexico (but probably aren't Mexicans) seeking AsYlUm lol.
Good thing there isn't an actual market for water so we have no idea how much the actual cost is. Much of the waste of water (championship golf, smelly blue colored artificial lakes in N. Glendale, Mesa, Chandler) would disappear if they had to pay the true cost. Now we have subsidized water so we get all those beautiful ugly things.
I could go on, but the problem started with the gov in 1909 with the Roosevelt Dam and compounded til today.
Jack Swilling, Mr. Murphy and the gang had it right.
Posted by: Michael | November 03, 2022 at 03:39 PM
Mike ur rite.
As much as i liked T.R.
he should have declared NM, AZ
and Nevada
Roadless Wilderness.
AND AMONG OTHER THINGS
For years i have bagered Arizona to shut down 89A from Sedona to the rim.
Now Oak Creek is poisoned by humans.
The onslaught of foreigners from Canada. Michigan, The Dakotas. Minnesota and so on is back again. The freeways are a slaughtering nightmare as is being trampled at Frys groceries.
The Sixth Extinction is in full swing.
Posted by: Cal Lash | November 03, 2022 at 06:37 PM
Bill, there are nearly 100000 dams in the US built by human techies.
The only ones that should remain are dams built by beavers.
Maybe you can catch a ride with Elon to Mars. I heard Ice has been discovered there. Probably enough for a village of Susan Calvin and I robot technocrats and their Margaritas.
Your pal. Cal Luddite.
Posted by: Cal Lash | November 03, 2022 at 06:44 PM
Beavers.
See Rewilding episode 97.
Posted by: Cal Lash | November 04, 2022 at 10:52 AM
I'm glad to see that Rogue is back in action.
Do you think that Phoenix's Drought Pipeline Project - https://www.phoenix.gov/waterservices/dpp - will extend the footprint of the Salt River Project? Could these pipelines endanger the water security of people residing in the original footprint?
I just finished Grady Gammage Jr.'s book, "The Future of the Suburban City: Lessons from Sustaining Phoenix". In it, he presents a more optimistic view of the future of the Phoenix metropolitan area, while noting the many challenges. I'm curious if you've read the book, and if so, what some of your takeaways were.
Posted by: Kevin in Preskitt | November 05, 2022 at 07:08 PM
Does Grady get paid to be optimistic?
And
Its a short trip from ASU to the HoHoKam (those who are gone) Museum.
Will Musk bring ice back ftom Mars?
Technology may not save the human race.
7.4 million less people in Arizona might help.
Posted by: Cal Lash | November 05, 2022 at 10:05 PM
Kevin in Preskitt: Take Grady with many grains of salt. He made his very-good-living as a real-estate lawyer engaged in making the sprawl machine happen.
He'll use every justification to continue it. Don't fall for it.
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | November 06, 2022 at 03:12 PM
Well, Cal, from what Jon says, it sounds like you were right about Grady. I bought the book used, so Mr. Gammage received no payment from me for his optimism.
Posted by: Kevin in Preskitt | November 06, 2022 at 10:41 PM
Kevin,
Jon and Grady have in common the world of intellectualism.
I'm a on the ground (sand) around the campfire guy. I listen to the whiskey laden words of others flowing through the rising campfire smoke. And come morning i put my cowboy coffeepot on the red embers hoping 3 cups will bring some sense to what i heard.
Currently im trying to decide if the Chiricahua Apaches and the Yaquis actually have surrendered.
Posted by: Cal Lash | November 07, 2022 at 09:46 AM
Cal, I believe it was the Chiricahua Apache who captured and enslaved my great grandfather for seven years back in 1860.
It would seem proper in these times of "woke" reparations that I receive free buffets at the area Indian casinos. I would consider it a "good trade".
Posted by: Ruben | November 07, 2022 at 11:21 AM
I thought it was your great grandmother?
I thought she stayed?
And Casino food is Italian products controlled by the Lucianos
Posted by: Cal Lash | November 07, 2022 at 03:49 PM