Days of risk

Rogue Columnist attracts two distinct groups of readers. Those who want commentary ("a pen warmed up in hell") on politics, climate, current events, and Phoenix. The other is attracted to the history columns — and by far the most numerous clicking on the photo galleries. Today, I'll serve the first batch of readers.

As I write, Russian troops are massing on the borders of Ukraine and in response NATO is stepping up readiness, the United States has placed thousands of troops on "high alert," and, along with Britain, emptied out its embassies in Kyiv (Kiev), the Ukrainian capital.

At the risk of being labeled a Putin apologist, do we really want to go to war with Russia over Ukraine? I'm old enough to remember when every international challenge was seen through the lens of Munich, when British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain appeased Hitler and sold out Czechoslovakia. Appeasement was justified as avoiding "a quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing..." in Chamberlain's words. He thought he secured "peace in our time." Churchill knew better: "You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war."

This is not a Munich moment. Or is it — see the update.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, it was handled skillfully by President George H.W. Bush and Secretary of State James Baker. Ukraine broke away from the USSR and Moscow let it and the other republics go, not least because Russia was exhausted by the expense of empire. But it was understood that NATO would not expand one foot east beyond the pre-Cold War boundaries. Instead, beginning under President Bill Clinton, all the former Warsaw Pact countries and Baltic states joined NATO. Many also became members of the European Union.

Boris Yeltsin, president of Russia, made Moscow's discomfort known, despite the friendly faces of the "Bill and Boris Show." He coined the term "near abroad" for countries that were important to Russia's national interest, especially Belarus and Ukraine. For centuries, they had been part of the Russian Empire. Now, except for Belarus, Moscow faces what Putin sees as hostile nations on its borders — a country that suffered invasions from the Mongols, Napoleon, and Hitler.

It was easy for Washington to brush off these concerns when Russia was weak, looted by oligarchs, its armed forces rusting and obsolete. But under former KGB man Vladimir Putin, Moscow cleaned up its act. Specifically, the Russian ground forces are modernized — lessons learned by the American destruction of the Soviet trained and equipped Iraq army in the First Gulf War — and advances in its nuclear weapons beyond the 1970s-era Minuteman ICBMs of the United States.

A conventional war could turn nuclear in a hurry. Russian generals have talked about "escalate to deescalate," using tactical nukes to turn back a NATO attack. No wonder the alliance, especially Germany, was not together on how to handle a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Outside the mainstream reporting, Putin wants a Yalta 2.0. The original Yalta was the World War II conference where FDR, Churchill, and Stalin divided up Europe. In Yalta 2.0, Ukraine would be in Russia's sphere of influence. It would not become part of the EU, much less part of NATO.

Russia may not invade all of Ukraine. It might simply install a puppet president, who would put down a majority that wants closer ties to Europe and fears Russia. Then the ball is in our court. 

[UPDATE]

Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine, some things are clearer.

Putin's fear is not a NATO attack but democracy in Ukraine and its threat to his autocracy. Instead, he has united NATO, caused Germany to increase its defense spending, and turned much of the world against Moscow for its brutal attack. Only Trump — who asked for Putin's help in the 2016 election — and Republicans are defending Moscow. Ukraine is fighting heroically and inflicting damage on Russian forces.

Putin denies Ukraine even existed as a sovereign nation, one of many lies he's told. Isolated in the Kremlin, Putin is seeming more unhinged, even putting nuclear forces on alert. President Biden is shrewdly handling the crisis.

 

Discuss.

 

 

 

 

 

Comments

[Cal Lash]

I think George Carlin had it right.
The US loves war.
Particularly A macho male,
my dicks bigger than yours, war.
Guys like DICK Cheney and COLON Powell.
And Donald RUMBLEsfield.
We violated the NATO agreement, big time.
The Big Dog wants Manifest Destiny of the planet.
Thanks Jon.
I like most evetything you scribble.

[Diane D'Angelo]

Can the U.S. handle NOT being at war? Given what I've seen in the past 25 years, I have my doubts. On a side note, remember how pitifully under-equipped our forces were in Iraq? Well, I'm working with those folks now, helping them heal from brain injuries and post-traumatic stress. So many lives ruined.

[Cal Lash]

Glad I wrote in Eugene Debs
and Mother Jones.

[Reality Street]

And then there's the subtext of what domestic pressures the Biden administration may feel to do some dick swinging -- or not -- following the Afghanistan debacle.

If Putin brushes Biden's saber rattling aside and stomps through Ukraine unfettered, where does that leave the Democrats and how will their opponents (from both sides of the spectrum) spin things?

Would heretofore isolationists change their flavor and loudly bemoan a capitulation for the sake of political expediency?

Ideally, this wouldn't matter. But...

The last thing a divided US needs right now is something new and big to fight about at home.

And is Western Europe ready for another wave of refugees? What reactions would that provoke?

Finally, is the US or Western Europe even in any real position to confront Russia militarily sans nukes?

After Ukraine, who might be next?

This won't be pretty, no matter what happens.

[Mike Doughty]

How would we feel if Mexico was charmed by Moscow and offered a chance to join their team? We know what happened in Cuba. After 60 years we are still fighting against Cuba and the sugar industry is still happy. They are still an easy punching bag for insincere politicians. Thanks for being brave enough to write what we are all thinking,but to gutless to admit.

[Cal Lash]

Did we beat feet out of Afghanistan in anticipation of boots on the ground in Russia?

[iaed]

Heather Cox Richardson in Letters from and American writes an interesting assessment of the developing conflict: https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/january-24-2022 .

[resilc]

I'll be on the second flight over to the Ukraine right after Vicky Nuland and the rest of the neo-con-job generals take on the first wave of Rooskies rolling on to the Dnieper River, where they will stop for brunch.

[M.H.]

Try reading Chapter 6 of The Next 100 Years by George Friedman (published in 2009). This article seems to parrot that analysis.

Then, give in to the fictional novel NEVER by Ken Follett. See one vision of how the world goes nuclear.

[DoggieCombover]

Putin is doing plenty of his own dick swinging here. Russia is in a world of hurt economically and every time it gets bad for him domestically, he puts on his tough guy outfit (or maybe takes off his shirt) and does something like, say, annex Crimea or announce hyperweaponry to get the focus off of the problems.

If NATO hangs together on the sanctions they are discussing, it only gets worse for the Russian people. If he can't sell oil and gas, it's a very dark outlook for their economy and hence his support. He knows that. We shall see who blinks first.

[iaed]

Some interesting commentary implicating Trump and his minions with respect to the pending hostilities: https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/january-24-2022

[Linda Harris]

Reality Street, we are not "fighting" Cuba. We don't have to. They are a very poor state with tourist revenue down because of Covid, sanctions that are still in place and an aging population because of a low birth rate. Like reslic, I read "Never" by Ken Follett and the parallel of the trajectory explored in the book and our present situation is frighteningly simiar.

[Reality Street]

Linda, I think you’ve got your posters mixed up. The reference to Cuba was by another.

But I’d have to say the US has been “fighting” Cuba in one form or another since 1959, though we’ve never gone all in.

Cheers

[Cal Lash]

Cuban organics are doing fine without an aspirin from Bayer/Monsanto.
And the American Mafia.
I only know of one president that has ruled longer than Fidel.
Two individuals who for over half a centuary survived everything
the Big Dogs threw at them.
A study in power

[Aleksandr S.]

Boomers want their nuclear war with the Reds.

Jews like Blinken, Nuland, Sherman, Zelensky and their financiers won't rest until they destroy Christian Russia.

[Reality Street]

Do I smell a Putinbot?

[Cal Lash]

IAED
good post.

[Cal Lash]

IAED
an old article but on subject.
The Next Act of the Neocons
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/06/opinion/sunday/are-neocons-getting-ready-to-ally-with-hillary-clinton.html
AND PER GLENN GREENWALD
The Neocons' Primary War Tactic: Branding Opponents of U.S. Intervention as Traitors
By rehabilitating neocons and elevating them as thought leaders, liberals live in their framework. Thus are opponents of U.S. involvement in Ukraine deemed treasonous.

[iaed]

Cal,

I just wish it would be law that at least 50% of the children, grandchildren, and great grandchildren of the neocons serve in the military as foot soldiers sent into battle. The neocons know how to beat their chests, so they should know how to wail for their children.

[Cal Lash]

10-4

[Cal Lash]

Today:
"indicating that US ground forces were involved in the fight."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/middleeast/isis-syria-prison-attack-intl/index.html

[Cal Lash]

https://harpers.org/archive/2010/01/the-wisdom-of-rats/

"History here has been mainly a series of one-act plays—human communities enter with cultures formed in other environments, flourish for a spell, and then recede. Modern American and Mexican history insists it is the final act, and that its script will now play out here until the end of time. But as the nations shout these beliefs, the ground underneath them and the sky above them turn a deaf ear. We are dancing to the edge of life and we now move through the forests of dread and what we fear, really fear, is not some other nation conquering our plains and mountains and deserts, no, no, what we fear is that someone or something will do to us exactly what we have done to the buffalo, and to the mounted warrior on horseback with that lance and bow, what we have done to the rivers and the trees and the fine native grasses that first fell under our footsteps as we ventured into the bewitching and yearning ground.

[Cal Lash]

UKRAINE CRISIS: When a NATO Foreign Minister Accused the Alliance of ‘War-Mongering’ Against Russia
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/26/when-a-nato-foreign-minister-accused-the-alliance-of-war-mongering-against-russia/

[Vanessa Jones]

Why don't they just invite Russia to join NATO?

[Cal Lash]

VJ the Neocons will want to brand
a big T on your head.
But I think that's a good Idea
but you will have to convince The Russia Mafia that its a profitable thing.

[Cal Lash]

Jon its time for some more valley buildings.
Few seem to care about Putin jerking off.

While I think Vladimir's weakness is his dream for a Mother Russia I cant see him leaving his castles and that new young wife to fight a war. Except maybe another Judo Match. But isn't that what Putin is doing,
a mental Wing Chun match of throwing Biden to the mat. Betcha Sleepy Joe never read the Art of War.
Speaking of Sonoran Desert structures.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=r3pANA90&id=5F4370ACCB5198B5AC6DEF965BF4EDA214BA071D&thid=OIP.r3pANA906Y4Wya4e1h6zZAHaEa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.af7a40340f74e98e16c9ae1ed61eb364%3frik%3dHQe6FKLt9FuW7w%26riu%3dhttp%253a%252f%252fgnosticwarrior.com%252fwp-content%252fuploads%252f2015%252f10%252fHohokam-city.jpg%26ehk%3dcvYMSDo4r4g17oydNn1txqflUGW41hr1lRqGRrhSe%252b8%253d%26risl%3d%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=764&expw=1280&q=photos+of+hohokam+dwellings&simid=608016985335343711&FORM=IRPRST&ck=A6C3856AE832F5736414ADFA5A1B7EE0&selectedIndex=32&qpvt=photos+of+hohokam+dwellings&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

[Rich Weinroth]

Here's my take. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons--literally hundreds of them--in 1995, and in exchange received secure border guarantees from Russia, the United States and the UK. So much for that. So what country is ever going to give up their nuclear weapons in light of this? The lesson is to get nuclear weapons and never give them up. Would Russia dare to threaten an invasion of Ukraine if it had kept its nuclear weapons? Of course not. Our failure to live up to our agreement will further increase nuclear proliferation around the world, and eventually these weapons will be used. But sure, let's just let Russia invade whatever country it wants with no real consequences. Or maybe we should just take a chunk of Canada because there is nothing the Canadians can do. How about British Columbia and the Yukon. Or take Greenland. How about the South Island of New Zealand. It's quite nice. Let's just say that any large power with nuclear weapons can invade whatever country it wants and divide up the land and resources. I'm sure it will work out.

[Ruben]

cal, I can't think of anything to write. And no, you can't threaten to deport me. I was born in NEW Mexico, not old Mexico.

[Cal Lash]

Rich W, good points.

and more on
Vladimir's emotional weakness

"Vladimir Putin presents himself to his citizens and to the world as the standard-bearer of a modern counter-enlightenment. He has declared liberal democracy “obsolete,” a political arrangement that has “outlived its purpose.” One of his historical role models is said to be Alexander III, a reactionary tsar in the Romanov dynasty who instituted draconian restrictions on the press, sought to “Russify” his multi-ethnic empire, and mobilized against internal and external threats. Four years ago, Putin expressed his deep admiration for the tsar while visiting the Crimean Peninsula, a substantial and distinctly unthreatening parcel of Ukraine that Russia invaded in 2014 and has occupied ever since."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/01/31/putin-ukraine-and-the-preservation-of-power?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_DavidsonSorkin_01272022&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&bxid=5bd67d4224c17c104802a222&user_id=48614199&hasha=0523227b7149c0b82cb49b2af58cfdec&hashb=b4d894932a65b44ae2bcace91ea577e9c3a69cdc&hashc=27b2e1888dfb7e258ae5036789675e58bea59212aedaefc767cca4308ce0a752&esrc=End_News_217&utm_term=TNY_DavidsonSorkin

[Cal Lash]

Ruben you are from Spain.
Spain took back "New Mexico" after your ancestors did
the The Pueblo revolt.
And a photo of your great great great great great grandparents on the Salt River.
No bridge.
https://14je0al6g153k7ias3cbadcy-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Hohokam-Irrigation-640x395.jpg

[Cal Lash]

“They must understand,” Sergei Lavrov said in one of his many public statements last week, “that the key to everything is the guarantee that NATO will not expand eastward.”
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/25/patrick-lawrence-russias-red-line/

[Cal Lash]

Antony Bliken. Wrong guy for the job.
He was an active proponent in going to war in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lybia. All colossal failures as will it be in Ukraine.
Antony never served a day in the military.
Reminds me of a supervisor whose idea of war was playing whiffle ball.
I knew i should have voted for Bernie.
Next war? McConnell keeping Biden from putting someone on the Supreme Court.
You know Jimmy Hoffa helped Biden win his first election, but he's dead.

[iaed]

My kids still think I should have voted for Bernie, and they are in their 40's. I wonder...

[Vanessa Jones]

Cal,
As far as I'm concerned they're the Capital-T Traitors.

George Washington would agree with me.

Avoid entangling alliances, peace and honest friendship with all, or something like that.

[Ruben]

Thanks for the drawing cal. I had heard through the generations that great-grandma (times 32 generations) was a hottie. Just think, around that same time period Russia (Kievan Rus) was just getting started. They had leaders like Vlad the Great and Yaroslav the Wise.

Now in the US we have Donald the Idiot and Biden the Infirm.

Concerning the current state of affairs in the world, I still don't have anything say. Other than, it's very tiring.

[Cal Lash]

Si.

[Cal Lash]

Pelosi moves to save Ukraine?

[Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn]

It seems Rich W. has some neocon tendencies and may still be fighting the Cold War, which we won but didn't win because the land of Russia was not vaporized with nukes.

"We have to stop Russia from invading...otherwise the whole world will have nuclear weapons and we'll all die.”

You first Rich!

Anthony Blinken is completely unqualified.

[Cal Lash]

While you all had your eye on the US NEOCONS trying to get the war going in Ukraine the neocon boys and girls got the US/CIA and US army trained military
in Burkina Faso to over throw the civilian government in Burkina Faso.
A day with out war is a bad day.
Friedrich Krupp

[Cal Lash]

And they did what?
"when presented the United States with a choice: triumphalism or reconciliation."

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/28/the-tangled-tale-of-nato-expansion-at-the-heart-of-ukraine-crisis/

[Cal Lash]

"The missing piece in the Ukraine crisis, you begin to notice, is that vast grain field and the 45-million people who live on it. The real players in the crisis are NATO, just west, and Russia to the east, and of course the fretful US across the ocean. But who speaks for the Ukrainians??

https://lithub.com/andrey-kurkov-on-the-view-from-ukraine/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Lit%20Hub%20Daily:%20January%2028%2C%202022&utm_term=lithub_master_list

[Ruben]

If you are old enough to have lived through a few of these rodeos before, look for the following to happen soon:

The USS Arleigh Burke attacked by mysterious Russian forces in the Black Sea. Then WAR !!!

The Pentagon and the State department announce that they suspect Russia has WMDs. Then WAR !!!

[Cal Lash]

A War Only America & Britain Seem to Want

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/28/a-war-only-america-britain-seem-to-want/

[Rich Weinroth]

Mr. "Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn". If you are going to bring up conspiracy allegations against Jews or anyone else for that matter, at least have the balls to use your own name. And I would say to the Rogue Columnist, you need to police your site. It's your message board.

As to what specifically to do, I would have long ago provided Ukraine with defensive weapons (e.g., anti-tank, anti-plane weapons) to raise the cost to Russia for an invasion. I also would bar all Russian imports into the United States, and if Russia invades, bar Russia from the US financial system and bar any imports from the EU to the US within 90 days from any country that trades with Russia. Since our market is more than 10 times that of Russia for the EU, the EU would have no choice but to flush trade with Russia. I would further freeze all Russian assets in the US, including all assets held by Russian companies and their principals, and that would include all US Government securities. I would freeze all securities held through Swiss banks until they identified the Russian owners of those securities, and if they fail to do so within 90 days, I would have those securities permanently forfeited to the US Government. Further, with the consent of the Baltic Countries and Poland, I would move 2 full US armoured divisions and full complements of fighter and bomber aircraft to those countries to deter any Russian aggression against NATO members.

[Cal Lash]

Rich, that sounds good.
Best sanctions ive heard.

[Cal Lash]

When i was breaking out of my teens my guys were Ike and Moshe.
I still have my Moshe Dyan T shirt.
But cant find my Ike button.

[Cal Lash]

As i recall in 76 i had the duty of delivery General Moshe Dyan's evening meal to his Biltmore Hotel room.
His room door was opened by a serious looking tall physically fit body guard.
Dyan was standing near the door and had on a black eye patch. He had little hair and was wearing a wife beater T shirt, plaid boxer shorts and calf length black socks.
I handed the food to the body guard and Dyan said thank you.
Th Phoenix Police security detail for Dyans stay was led by Organized Crime and Intelligence Bureau Lieutenant Glenn Sparks and Sergeant Oscar Long.
Arrangements were also made for a meeting with Dyan for interim Maricopa County Attorney Don Harris. Harris is of the Jewish faith and a former US Marine.
Sparks and Long are deceased as are most of the participants.

[Cal Lash]

Policing the site and real names.
I have always been disappointed in folks not using their real names.
However I have conflicted with Talton when he censored or dropped posters off.
What people post tells you a lot about who they are and where their head is.
For example, at 82 im totally insane
but its fun.
"Keep scribbling"

[Ruben]

A few kinks in your plan Rich.

Russia has nukes. You don't corner nuke owners.

Banks call the shots. Not the US, not Russia. Banks. Banks won't allow harm to come to themselves.

Freeze Russian assets? Trump has been a Russian money launderer/asset for over thirty years. He has operated as such right under the nose of feds and state and county and city authorities for the benefit of all the parties. How do you freeze all of them?

The world is no longer about "territory".

This is no conspiracy. This is a financial chess game being played by players who we could not even begin to imagine the money and power they hold in their hands. We aren't even pawns in their game. We are nothing.

[Cal Lash]

"There are only 5000 PEOPLE in the World.
They are called bankers.
Everyone and everything else is a commodity "
Rueben i think a few of Rich's things are doable.
However this continuing bs about mother Russia and Ukanine is a side show to the internal war in the United States.
Not much uniting going on.
The current white Supremacists religious whackos are in a tear to redo the country. After they make abortion punishable with a death penalty they are going to tell you what you can read and say and that rejected live sperm constitutes more murder. Meanwhile the rest of the country is busy deciding whether to vote for Neil Young or Joe Rogan. Well back to my copy of Vanity Fair.

[Cal Lash]

Excellent article in Rogues Front pages on Russia and Ukraine by Yulia Latynina.

[Susan Long]

Rich Weinroth for Secretary of State!

[Susan Long]

Secretary of Defense is what I meant.

[Cal Lash]

"Big War CEOs: There’s chaos in the world and our prospects are excellent"
and said:
"the third largest weapons producer in the world, “actually promote[s] human rights proliferation.”

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/01/28/big-war-ceos-theres-chaos-in-the-world-and-our-prospects-are-excellent/?utm_campaign=The%20Dissenter%20&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter

[terry dudas]

Bravo, Ruben - truer words have not been written here.

[Ruben]

Thank you terry. I was hesitant to comment about these issues, but cal sent a string of threatening e-mails telling me to say something. He's retired, cranky and armed, so I did the best I could.

[terry dudas]

Rueben - old guys can get THAT way. Old gals can too, I know.

[Cal Lash]

Ruben its my patriotic duty to FORCE you to speak. My grandfathet fought in two wars.
1917 and 1942.
He fought against his far removed ancestors from Prussia. One of these relatives became a Lash and left Prussia to skip out on the ongoing European conscriptions around 1745 and entered America illegally.

[Cal Lash]

His son, Jacob Lash fought in the American Revolution
Correction.
The first relative got here about 1745 and his son changed the name Loesch to Lash. I may be related to Eleanor Roosevelt's communist companion, Joe.

But thanks for posting Ruben.
I was begining to think everyone had left the planet to hang out with Eldon.

[Cal Lash]

I meant Elon.
Eldon was my 1956 classmate

[Cal Lash]

"Russia’s demand for a written response was a trap, one neither the U.S. nor NATO yet recognizes, writes Scott Ritter."

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/30/checkmate-in-ukraine/

[Rogue Columnist]

Anti-semitic comments will be deleted.

[Ya Boy Alec]

It all gets so tiresome. Everything I said was factually accurate, but just something you CAN'T EVEN MENTION.

But I get it, Rogue. I know they'll come down on you. Look at Whoopi. I have no problem with you. I just don't like it when people try to pick a fight for no actual reason, with someone that actually can fight back, and has a tendency of following invaders all the way home.

As I see it, the US Government declared war on the Americans in Sep. 2001. The first chapter was abroad but now it looks like the war is coming home. So, who cares, maybe? The Brandons are all really inept and incompetent people, so hopefully they'll screw up their marching orders.

Watch March 19 though. That's their favorite day to kick off the festivities.

[Al]

Wait no, I've got a good one.

I'm not anti-semitic. I support Israel...with my taxes.

Thank you! Thank you!

[Cal Lash]

See Guardian News on Israel is an Apartheid country.

[eclecticdog]

Little harsh on Chamberlain there Rogue. What could he do? England did not want another blood bath and the military industries were just starting to ramp up (even then they lucked out during the Blitz thanks to Goering).

[Marsha Ann]

Ukraine is our greatest ally. Putin is a bully and threatens Ukraine, especially the Ukrainians who speak Russian. He is the greatest threat to peace in our time. If we don't stop him there we will have to stop him here.

George Washington warned us to stay out of entangling alliances and foreign conflicts. But he was a slave owner so we must do the opposite of what he says, to fight racism. It takes all of us. Those are our values. It's who we are. People are dying. You're either with us or against us.