Ground zero

Have you noticed how many stories are generated out of Phoenix and Arizona by big national news organizations, including the New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times? This is a big change from the days when we operated in relative obscurity. It is also no coincidence.

For one thing, the state is so different from the one I grew up in: 1.3 million population in 1960 vs. 7.2 million in 2020. Arizona was the 35th most populous state in the union in 1960. Now No. 14 — the third largest in the West — and Phoenix is the fifth most populous city. With size comes scrutiny.

But more important is that many of the crises of the future are being played out here. Climate change. Border pressures. Demographic shifts. The crisis of political legitimacy and our experiment in self-government. We have a front-row seat and are players. Yes, I'm happy for the Suns (and that the arena contract requires the team to keep the city name) and for the center-city infill. Happy for light rail (WBIYB).

But all is not well. Indeed, it's shocking how dark the future looks — and Arizona is ground zero.

Every four years, the nation's intelligence agencies publish an assessment of where the planet is headed over the coming 20 years. The latest, Global Trends 2040, is entitled "A More Contested World." As the New York Times summarized:

The world is...rent by a changing climate, aging populations, disease, financial crises and technologies that divide more than they unite, all straining societies and generating “shocks that could be catastrophic.” The gap between the challenges and the institutions meant to deal with them continues to grow, so that “politics within states are likely to grow more volatile and contentious, and no region, ideology, or governance system seems immune or to have the answers.” At the international level, it will be a world increasingly “shaped by China’s challenge to the United States and Western-led international system,” with a greater risk of conflict.

Arizona isn't mentioned in the 144-page report.  But one would have to be a fool or obsessed with the short-hustle of real estate not to see the implications.

I think about a "small" one: Once Phoenix could feed itself between the bounty of Salt River Valley produce, diaries, and the Tovrea feedlots and slaughterhouses. Now we're almost entirely dependent on the 10,000-mile-supply chain. And the pandemic showed how fragile that is.

The big one, of course, is climate change. Even before global warming became undeniable, land-use practices were creating local warming. Specifically, replacing citrus groves, farms, shade trees, grass and landscaping, and natural desert with pavement, gravel, skeleton trees, and "shade structures."

In my lifetime, the overnight temperature has risen by more than 10 degrees (it's now a national problem with deadly consequences). Draw out the timeline and the results are more stunning. Consider that on May 1st, 1936, the high was 87 and the low 57. This past May 1st, the high was 99 and the low was 75. 

With the summers getting hotter and lasting longer (June set new record highs), the development interests have no response but more people, more sprawl, more freeways. They throw out techno-magical thinking such as "cool concrete" (which doesn't exist). Their answer to historic drought is to throw down gravel on the historic oasis to enable more sprawl. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Meanwhile, the West is on fire and the worst wildfires are in Arizona. These didn't happen when I was a boy. But few natives of my age are left in the state. So the residents now don't know what was lost and what's at risk. They live in highly vulnerable bubbles of air-conditioned cars, offices, and houses. They blather about not having to shovel sunshine and many take mountain hikes in high summer, often requiring risky rescues from the Fire Department.

That situation has become so bad that Phoenix Fire Captain P.J. Dean sent out a remarkable message (copied from the Phoenix Courant and edited for space):

The Technical Rescue Teams (TRT) of the Phoenix Fire Department have been providing rescue services to our mountain preserves for decades. Our skilled members with specialized training and equipment take great pride in the fact that we will respond unconditionally for anyone regardless of circumstance or location. Since only a small percentage of our units have the specialized training and equipment to perform mountain rescues, they are often required to perform several rescues throughout a 24-hour shift. This is in addition to the other incidents they will also respond to such as structure fires, car accidents, medical calls, etc.

Recently, this commitment has come at great expense. On June 16^th, the temperatures in Phoenix rose to a scorching 116 degrees. On this day, the Phoenix Fire Department responded to three, consecutive mountain rescues during the hottest part of the day. These rescues were located in the most difficult terrain and elevations that our Mountain Preserves have to offer. 

As a result of their exposure to the elements during these rescues, 12 firefighters were sent home mid-shift due to heat-related issues. Two of the firefighters were hospitalized with acute renal failure due to dehydration and exhaustion. It is important to note that these were all very well-conditioned and experienced members of our TRT team who perform these types of activities frequently during their 24 hour shifts. Under normal weather conditions, a TRT crew performing multiple rescues in a shift is manageable. When the Phoenix heat reaches its upper limits, these rescues become an entirely different situation for both patient and rescuer.

This was an unprecedented outcome which gave us great concern for the welfare of our community and our Firefighters. Whereas hiking our parks is usually considered a safe activity, this day was evidence of how extreme temperatures can make it exponentially more dangerous for everyone involved. 

As Firefighters, we deal with danger and manage risk on a daily basis. Each of us have taken an oath to put ourselves in harm’s way to protect others. This is something you can count on us to do anytime it’s needed. Unlike the other emergencies we respond to, the time frames of hiking and performing Mountain Rescues in extreme temperatures can be managed by restricting access to some trails.

Our request is that the City of Phoenix, Parks and Recreation Board restrict all access to the Cholla Trail Head and Echo Canyon Trail Head which lead to the top of Camelback Mountain and Piestewa Peak Trail Head which leads to the top of Piestewa Peak when outside temperatures reach 105 degrees Fahrenheit. 

There is a prominent, urban legend in hiking circles that the individuals who require rescue from our trails are from out of town and without proper conditioning or preparation to hike. This couldn’t be farther from the truth. Whereas people who clearly underestimate our parks do end up being rescued, we frequently rescue people who are experienced and prepared hikers. Being “in good shape” or “knowing what you are doing” in no way makes you immune from experiencing an injury, exposure or medical emergency while hiking. Anything can happen to anyone; we see it time and time again.

Restricting access to these two parks under this criterion would greatly reduce, perhaps even remove, the potential of a hiker becoming ill or injured during temperatures that have proven to be the most dangerous for trail users and rescuers alike. There are a multitude of other parks and trails to enjoy in Phoenix if one does not wish to abstain from outdoor activities in extreme temperatures. We feel this balanced approach would make our community safer yet still retain the freedom for hikers to utilize our other parks anytime they like. 

It is important for us to acknowledge the magnitude of this request. It is not something we take lightly. As an organization, we are normally not in the business of engaging in any efforts that could potentially limit one’s access to anything. There have been several efforts in the past to limit access to trails that we have avoided on principle. We simply felt it wasn’t our place to become involved with. 

We now feel that the safety of our community and of our first responders must take priority. There have been far too many recent instances that illustrate the danger under these circumstances can no longer be ignored. This issue has been ongoing for several years and unfortunately persists despite many previous efforts to mitigate it

Shovel that. At some point, sooner than anyone realizes, Phoenix will become uninhabitable. With its enormous population — although with growth slowing, a historic low of 16% from 2010 to 2019 — Phoenix will present the nation with a Hurricane Katrina-like disaster scenario if the grid goes down in summer. Or a long out-migration back to the Midwest or up to the Pacific Northwest. Either way, the costs and dislocation will be huge and of national consequence.

This was one of the major points made by Andrew Ross in his 2011 book, Bird on Fire: Lessons From America's Least Sustainable City. Rather than pay attention and change course, the local-yokels attacked him and built more freeways.  

They have been sowing the wind for decades with the childish delusion that only population growth mattered, and in the least sustainable fashion. Now we will reap the whirlwind.

 

Comments

[Billy]

Phoenix has many issues, but it is difficult to see how it is more at risk from climate change than Miami, New Orleans, or many other cities that face catastrophic flooding risks in the near future. Engineering solutions for extreme temperatures and water supply seem much easier than the prevention of massive fires or flooding (see recent NYT article on Chicago). Of course, the relative risks are only relative, and it would be nice to seem some actual leadership on this issue from the local governments, even with simple steps like planting more shade trees, white paint.

[Susan Unmacht]

One of the strange things about the build up around the Valley is that the high(er) rises are in fact heat traps. They are clustered in prime areas for example around Central in Phoenix, Apache and Rural in Tempe and now blossoming on McDowell and Scottsdale Road. A particular sorrow for me is the encroachment on Papago Park. It's thoughtless in a critical time of climate crisis. And still they come....

[DoggieCombover]

This is not Phoenix problem, anymore so than anywhere else. People were dropping like flies in the Pacific Northwest and BC with the recent unprecedented heat wave. I've seen no more data on that, but at the time it was hundreds of people dead, on a par with a Phoenix summer. Would the grid going down be any worse than it was in Texas this winter? What if the grid went down in Minnesota when it's 20 degrees below zero?

My friends in ID, MT, CO and WY are mighty sick of breathing smoke all summer, every summer, with the attendant health issues. The fact is, we are well past the tipping point on climate change. There are more greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere from uncontrollable wildfires than any other source. Unless someone brighter than I am can figure out how to tax the carbon and reduce that source, we are already into the future that was forecast.

[soleri]

The American West is currently burning up while the East is drowning in rising sea levels and too much rain. Maybe we can imagine all of this as an anomaly in which life as we once knew it will return, we pray, next year. This kind of denialism is now the go-to strategy for a country that lives in a fever dream of unhinged anger and anxiety.

It's already too late. Whatever we do in the future will be insufficient to stem the tide of environmental catastrophe. We did this to ourselves while gorging on Netflix and pizza. Maybe we can imagine a smarter, saner nation patiently building a future that can endure for centuries instead of a few decades. It's a nice fantasy if you ignore the evidence all around you.

[Steve Weiss]

We were shocked by the conditions our military had to face in Iraq, but they stayed for 20 years. I suspect it's the lobster in the pot, turn up the heat slowly, don't toss into boiling water.

Downtown Voices Coalition is kicking around another conversation on the state of the city and inviting Andrew to either come out or join us virtually. Some kind of panel. You interested in attending/participating?

[Kevin in Preskitt]

Are city leaders taking any action on the fire captain's letter?
It makes sense to me to close the Piestewa and Camelback summit trails when temperatures hit 105 (or maybe 110 degrees as an alternative). They should make it a misdemeanor, punishable by a hefty fine, to be on those trails when they're closed. They would have to pay part of the cost of being rescued. This would be similar to the "stupid motorist" law about driving into flooded water crossings and needing rescue.

[DoggieCombover]

The first rule of search and rescue is to not expose more people to the same hazard. For example, in avalanche country, you just don't go until it can be done safely. Perhaps harsh to some, but if the captain feels so strongly about the danger--then don't go until you feel you are not endangering your rescuers.

I also couldn't help but contrast these supposedly fit, hale firefighters with wildland firefighters who work in that extreme environment every day, all day long. I have been involved with that in one way or another for decades and not seen anything like 12 people going down.

[DoggieCombover]

Oh, and last night the City Council agreed to a "pilot" project to close a couple of the more difficult trails, while encouraging people to go to other trails...I'm not making this up.

[cal lash]

NO SHIT JACK
Flaming in Phoenix
A FIRE STORM
During WWII US bombers deliberately started Fire Storms in human highly density populated Germany.
Today human activity brings us many killing fire storms.
ED Abbey burnt Phoenix down in his novel, The Good News.
Charles Bowden and many others have pointed out the consequences of building cities in places that will be temporary.
Around 200 AD, Tertullin of Carthage "Suggested pruning the Luxurince of the human race.
About 1800 Thomas Malthus wrote about outgrowing resources.
In 2017 50 Nobel prize winning scientists said that, "human over population and environmental degradation are the two greatest threats facing mankind."
But today Billionaires Eldon Musk and Jack Ma contend that "by 2039 the biggest issue will be population collapse, not explosion."
Maybe? Seems like that will require a lot of dead people!

INMHO Human activity is driven by the desire to exceed that needed for reasonable survival but reaches the absurdity of suicide by amassing ridiculous consumption.

and then there is these thoughts
https://caityjohnstone.medium.com

[Mariam Cheshire]

I watched for a comment by Cal Lash and knew it would be a wider look at what is going on. Cal can find opinions that make the pessimists look like optimists. I won't be around to see it, but I'm hoping the pendulum will swing back the other way, that Somebody will come to the rescue, that our planet will stay livable.
Maybe Branson, Bezos, Musk, possibly the Chinese will find a new world for us to start all over again. This 93-year old will volunteer for a ride on a rocket.
Mariam, author of "Stories About the Hotel Westward Ho."

[El Kabong]

I try to keep on the sunny side but on climate change I can't see one, other than the fact that I'll probably be gone when the bill comes due for how we've been living.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

@Mariam, I've been reading a lot of science-related articles and listening to science-related podcasts. I figure that while many Americans slouch toward fantasy and darkness, I'd drift toward rationality and listen to people who are smarter than me and give them the benefit of the doubt.

Neil Degrasse Tyson has regularly addressed the possibility and peril of humans colonizing space. In short, we're stuck on our little blue rock.

The first challenges are of leaving Earth. The practical economics: If we look at space launches of satellites and the space station, we're just talking about orbital Earth. It costs about $10,000 per pound of matter to achieve orbit. You start with the fixed costs of the vehicle (tons), fuel and crew (hundreds of pounds each). Then you add the payload.

Then there are physiological concerns. How do carbon-based life forms adapt and survive when the biological and chemical interactions beyond Earth are different and likely nonexistent?

Re-creating a biome beyond Earth runs into the economy problem.

Once, Degrasse Tyson had on a ethicist on his podcast to weigh the ethical implications of space colonization. The guest wasn't Cal Lash, but sounded like him. He says world history is an argument against space exploration, because humanity would just take our bad habits (war, resource exploitation, social stratification) to our celestial frontiers. If we haven't figured out how to abolish war, prejudice and exploitation here, we're not any better as colonizers no matter our ideals.

[Ramjet]

One more time!
We are screwing ourselves of a place to stand.

[Roger 01]

A nice illustration of the cancer that is 'sustainable growth':

Recently an article came out that highlighted that homes that were being built or had been built could not be habitable as a result of PFAS and PFOA forever chemicals that were found in the groundwater in the area. Those chemicals came from Luke Air Force Base that was nearby.

ALSO nearby, something the company I work with helped put in place, is Red Bull, White Claw and another bottling facility. All mine groundwater to provide everyone with their drinks of choice. I asked someone with direct connections to them if there was a concern that these chemicals were in their wells as they were right next door to these homes. The answer was an acknowledgement that it was a good question and a valid concern but hey- they were 2 miles away. How bout them Suns eh?

I see so many in the water industry that are jaded and have given up. They realize they sold out our resources for pennies on the T-Bill and now simply tell me when I challenge them 'Well, it's legal'.

I feel like I'm losing my mind when no one cares about the train wreck approaching that everyone is doing all they can to ignore.

[Mariam Cheshire]

Hello Bobson - Although my favorite will always be Asimov, I'm disregarding the science part of sf. We are going to lift away from this planet with our minds, forget about the dollar per tonnage. We could all go on the same channel and will ourselves to High Barbaree. Lots of choices on that one, but we would be writing a book on Jon's dime. So all we can do now: Look at the problems with Jon's research and Cal's digging further and try is protect what we have left.
from Mariam, author of "The Alternate Safe World of Sanctuary," written in 1972

[cal lash]

The “Extinction Prevention Act” Is Not Enough
The Human Population Needs To Be Stabilized in the U.S.
https://rewilding.org/the-extinction-prevention-act-is-not-enough/

Bobson, I had to look up ethicist. HA!

[Roy Warden]

Arizona is also “Ground Zero” in the Border crisis. For decades Arizona insiders used Illegal Labor to harvest crops and to build infrastructure. Arizona Project 1977 article "Bob Goldwater's Ranch Uses Illegal Aliens." https://www.newspapers.com/image/105881980/