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September 01, 2020

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and
https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/?utm_source=The+Muck+Rack+Daily&utm_campaign=d69f951bbc-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_09_01_04_27&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_af2b2023a3-d69f951bbc-28068313

If Biden is five or more points ahead of Trump in late October's national polls, he will likely win Arizona. I'm wondering if the growing number of California exiles hasn't shifted the political balance of power to the Democrats.

The California exodus is hard core right wing. I've met them. Hard core, fire breathers. Pro gun, anti-tax, anti-government. Pro law enforcement. Loads of them are ex-law enforcement.

Many years ago I talked to a LA Sheriffs Deputy that was living in Yarnell and flying to LA to work. He advised many California cops and others (right wing minded folks) were moving to Idaho.

I think the Arizona shift is a combination of LDS that have finally realized a Mark Kelly is a good choice and that Donald is a Whacko. So says Mitt Romney.

And the Hispanics have really been pushing voter registration. I have a Spanish speaking gringa friend that has been helping in this area.

Plus a number of 2016 Trump voters have said thats enough let us try something else.

Plus Trumps recurring lies about social security benefits
may be pushing some of Arizona's
retirees to Biden.

I've been hearing about the blue wave for so many years. What I hear now is what I heard when Janet Napolitano was governor. I agree with Jon, I'll believe it when I see it.

Based on my experience, the people who tend to move here from California seem to be more often conservative than progressive. The latter has the option of moving to places like Denver that have lower COL vs California and fits their political leanings. I don't entirely buy the idea that progressives are moving to Arizona from California, but things could be changing. I think the difference between people moving here now and 20 years ago is that the cost of living in California has become a significant burden for a lot of middle-class and working class people, that they don't have a lot of choice in moving. In the past, I noticed a lot of people moving here did so to save money and not because they necessarily had to do so, which also tends to bring in the anti-tax, conservative crowd.

I can see Kelly and Biden winning Arizona, but I think that might be more of a sign of a country getting tired of the extremes of the Trump years. Who knows what it will be like in another decade or two. For all the optimism some folks had about the blue wave back in 1996 or even the 2000s due to some small Democratic "victories", there has been more proof of a resilient right-wing base in Arizona.

Trumps not to noticed sneak attack on Social Security
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/opinions/social-security-payroll-trump-altman/index.html

The GOP's continuing efforts to Kill anything Roosevelt and Obama did.
https://billmoyers.com/story/republican-tax-plan-new-deal/

I'll believe it when I see it." Rogue

Agreed.

Arizona may have been a Democratic voting state before Goldwater but so was the rest of the Confederacy.

The Big Sort theory carries some weight, but most people I know who move, do so for financial reasons and job opportunities. Moving to another state primarily for political reasons strikes me as the privilege of very few.

They are not moving for "political reasons". They are moving for a variety of underlying issues which form the basis of their political leaning.

I forgot another of their anti's.

Pro suburb and anti-city.

These folks are not moving to downtown Phoenix or Tucson.

What the voting crowd looks
like in Rubenville.
https://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g31305-d1818350-Reviews-Creekside_Steakhouse_and_Tavern-Payson_Arizona.html#photos;aggregationId=&albumid=101&filter=7&ff=461877831

About the Big Sort:

https://www.npr.org/books/titles/137985250/the-big-sort-why-the-clustering-of-like-minded-america-is-tearing-us-apart

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/how-the-big-sort-is-driving-political-polarization?sref=aHMKh2AG

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/18/books/review/Stossel-t.html

https://www.c-span.org/video/?205962-1/the-big-sort

Thanks Rogue, I"ll check it out.

Voter registration is one thing, voting another entirely different thing. What is the deal with Hispanic turnout?

Will your vote get counted and
will voting work?

"I think that any real social change has come from people moving in the streets, has come from people fighting outside of elections and outside of the parliamentary method that we’re taught in a civics class, if people still have those."
Vicky Osterweil in her book,
“In Defense of Looting,”

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/vicky-osterweils-case-for-looting?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_090320&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&bxid=5bd67d4224c17c104802a222&cndid=48614199&hasha=0523227b7149c0b82cb49b2af58cfdec&hashb=b4d894932a65b44ae2bcace91ea577e9c3a69cdc&hashc=27b2e1888dfb7e258ae5036789675e58bea59212aedaefc767cca4308ce0a752&esrc=AUTO_OTHER&utm_term=TNY_Daily

Underneath the copyright notice of In Defense of Looting appears these words:
“The scanning, uploading, and distribution of this book without permission is a theft of the author’s intellectual property,”

Personally, I'm favor of stealing this book if only to make the author's point as explicitly as possible.

Shoplifting at Powell's???

Wokeness never sleeps, particularly in Portland.

Portland WOKENESS?
Is that you?
More NUDE cyclist and less guns.
Beware Nudity in video
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=nude+bicyclists+video+in+spain&docid=608011449100142713&mid=A178553AE5E1871A973AA178553AE5E1871A973A&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

I've also been of the "I'll believe Arizona's going blue when I see it" persuasion. But I think we started to see it in 2018. The Arizona Republican Party has gone all in for Trump. I think it will pay a significant price for that.

I think Jeff Flake is right that you can't build a consistent majority on fear and resentment. I hope he's right.

Flake is not a Udall but he and other LDS appear to becoming more like Jesus than others. Its pretty obvious Trump is an evangelistic profiteer. Time for him to get tossed out of the temple.

"Time for him to get tossed out of the temple." Amen.

(LDS) Ann Romney joins Michelle Obama to get out the vote.
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/515051-ann-romney-to-join-tv-special-with-michelle-obama-to-get-out

Most of my life I have been an independent, and considered myself a moderate. I have served in the military and worked for DoD and a federal law enforcement agency. I voted for Republicans for President until 2000, but could not vote for someone as unqualified as Dub. Wanted to vote for McCain, but he lost me when he selected Palin as his running mate. I knew from the start that Trump was morally, intellectually and temperamentally unqualified for the job, and nothing has happened in the last 4 years to prove me wrong.

I seem to run contrary to the theory that you become more conservative as you grow older. I hope that I am not the exception to the rule, and that many other 60+ voters will recognize the incompetence and corruption of this administration and sweep them out. I have never voted a party ticket, but this year it is Biden, Kelly, and Tiperneni for me. Just wish Ducey was on the ballot this year so l could vote for his opponent too.

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