Arizona in play

Hope springs eternal. Every election cycle since Bill Clinton carried Arizona in 1996, the narrative has gone like this: The state will change politically as newcomers bring their (more liberal) values. And thanks to Hispanics Arizona is on the cusp (always!) of becoming a purple or even deep blue electorate. The 2016 map above shows how that worked out in the most recent presidential race.

Might it finally happen this year?

Before getting there, a little history. Arizona was a solidly Democratic state until Harry Rosenzweig persuaded Barry Goldwater to run against incumbent Sen. Ernest McFarland in 1952. Political fixer Steve Shadegg switched parties to run Goldwater's campaign — and Barry stunned Mac, the Senate Majority Leader and father of the GI Bill, in a close race.

Shadegg was a talented campaign manager and had a good product: Handsome, authentic, charismatic, sexy, ran with a fast crowd (the real Barry was nothing like he was depicted by the national press). But Mac was dragged down by more than this, more even than changing demographics. The Korean War was still dragging on as a stalemate. Americans who had won World War II were angry over a "police action" that didn't yield victory. Whatever glow Harry Truman attained in recent decades, he was deeply unpopular in 1952 and this hurt Democrats.

Still, it wasn't a sea change. Mac came back to Arizona and became highly successful as governor. And for the next three-plus decades Arizona was a competitive state for both parties. Our longest serving Senator was a Democrat, Carl Hayden.

These were different parties compared with today, to be sure. Both were mass parties, with liberal, centrist, and conservative factions. Arizona Democrats tended to be conservative ("pintos"), although Mo Udall in southern Arizona was more liberal, as was his brother Stewart Udall, who left Congress to become JFK's Interior Secretary.

Goldwater launched the beginning of the GOP's right-wing takeover when he won the presidential nomination in 1964. But both he and Rep. John Rhodes helped push Nixon out of the White House in 1974 because of the Watergate scandal. Both Arizona Republicans would be aghast at the Trump Republican Party.

Continued migration from the Midwest turned Arizona deep red. This is the Big Sort phenomenon, where people move to places that have their political and social values. The enormous retiree population, which votes in every election and votes red (same with the LDS), makes the situation more difficult for Democrats.

Thus, with the exception of St. Janet's two terms and Terry Goddard as AG, Republicans have controlled most important political branches for decades. They've never paid a price for Arizona's low standing in almost every area of well-being. They want sunshine, championship golf, endless driving, low taxes, and everything else can be blamed on "the Mexicans."

Hispanic turnout has been abysmal. California 1994 Proposition 187 was the rough equivalent of Arizona's SB 1070. Two differences: The former was passed by voters. And it turned out to be so unpopular that it was one of the major factors that destroyed the GOP's statewide chances pretty much forever in the Golden State. But SB 1070 was a political boon for the right in Arizona.

And Clinton's win in 1996? It was less than it seemed. Running against a lackluster Republican who spoke of himself in the third person, the president carried 46.5% vs. Bob Dole's 44.3%. (H. Ross Perot was once again on the ballot). Tellingly, Clinton lost Maricopa County.

Today's state of play is less favorable to Republicans. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won the Senate race in 2018. Although her modern pinto voting record irritates progressives, it made the difference in beating Martha McSally. In a quarterback sneak, Gov. Doug Ducey named McSally to serve out John McCain's term and give her an advantage this year. It hasn't worked out that way, as Mark Kelly, popular astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords, is doing well as the Democratic candidate.

Another shift: Five of Arizona's nine congressional seats are held by Democrats. Arizona's Republican representatives tend to be comically extreme or corrupt, lacking wide appeal outside their districts.

This year, the drumbeat of Arizona-turns-purple stories ( see here, here, and here) have more credibility.

I'll believe it when I see it. Much will depend on a combination of revulsion against Trump and high Democratic turnout. As always, a large Hispanic vote would be a game changer.

For the state, the most significant and constructive change would be Democrats taking control of the Legislature, the strongest branch of government. Then the Kookocracy would be swept out, at least for awhile, and good things could come.

 

Comments

[Cal Lash]

and
https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/?utm_source=The+Muck+Rack+Daily&utm_campaign=d69f951bbc-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_09_01_04_27&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_af2b2023a3-d69f951bbc-28068313

[soleri]

If Biden is five or more points ahead of Trump in late October's national polls, he will likely win Arizona. I'm wondering if the growing number of California exiles hasn't shifted the political balance of power to the Democrats.

[Ruben]

The California exodus is hard core right wing. I've met them. Hard core, fire breathers. Pro gun, anti-tax, anti-government. Pro law enforcement. Loads of them are ex-law enforcement.

[Cal Lash]

Many years ago I talked to a LA Sheriffs Deputy that was living in Yarnell and flying to LA to work. He advised many California cops and others (right wing minded folks) were moving to Idaho.

I think the Arizona shift is a combination of LDS that have finally realized a Mark Kelly is a good choice and that Donald is a Whacko. So says Mitt Romney.

And the Hispanics have really been pushing voter registration. I have a Spanish speaking gringa friend that has been helping in this area.

Plus a number of 2016 Trump voters have said thats enough let us try something else.

[Cal Lash]

Plus Trumps recurring lies about social security benefits
may be pushing some of Arizona's
retirees to Biden.

[Thomas]

I've been hearing about the blue wave for so many years. What I hear now is what I heard when Janet Napolitano was governor. I agree with Jon, I'll believe it when I see it.

Based on my experience, the people who tend to move here from California seem to be more often conservative than progressive. The latter has the option of moving to places like Denver that have lower COL vs California and fits their political leanings. I don't entirely buy the idea that progressives are moving to Arizona from California, but things could be changing. I think the difference between people moving here now and 20 years ago is that the cost of living in California has become a significant burden for a lot of middle-class and working class people, that they don't have a lot of choice in moving. In the past, I noticed a lot of people moving here did so to save money and not because they necessarily had to do so, which also tends to bring in the anti-tax, conservative crowd.

I can see Kelly and Biden winning Arizona, but I think that might be more of a sign of a country getting tired of the extremes of the Trump years. Who knows what it will be like in another decade or two. For all the optimism some folks had about the blue wave back in 1996 or even the 2000s due to some small Democratic "victories", there has been more proof of a resilient right-wing base in Arizona.

[Cal Lash]

Trumps not to noticed sneak attack on Social Security
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/opinions/social-security-payroll-trump-altman/index.html

The GOP's continuing efforts to Kill anything Roosevelt and Obama did.
https://billmoyers.com/story/republican-tax-plan-new-deal/

[HMLS]

I'll believe it when I see it." Rogue

Agreed.

Arizona may have been a Democratic voting state before Goldwater but so was the rest of the Confederacy.

The Big Sort theory carries some weight, but most people I know who move, do so for financial reasons and job opportunities. Moving to another state primarily for political reasons strikes me as the privilege of very few.

[Ruben]

They are not moving for "political reasons". They are moving for a variety of underlying issues which form the basis of their political leaning.

I forgot another of their anti's.

Pro suburb and anti-city.

These folks are not moving to downtown Phoenix or Tucson.

[Cal Lash]

What the voting crowd looks
like in Rubenville.
https://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g31305-d1818350-Reviews-Creekside_Steakhouse_and_Tavern-Payson_Arizona.html#photos;aggregationId=&albumid=101&filter=7&ff=461877831

[Rogue Columnist]

About the Big Sort:

https://www.npr.org/books/titles/137985250/the-big-sort-why-the-clustering-of-like-minded-america-is-tearing-us-apart

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/how-the-big-sort-is-driving-political-polarization?sref=aHMKh2AG

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/18/books/review/Stossel-t.html

https://www.c-span.org/video/?205962-1/the-big-sort

[HMLS]

Thanks Rogue, I"ll check it out.

[DoggieCombover]

Voter registration is one thing, voting another entirely different thing. What is the deal with Hispanic turnout?

[Cal Lash]

Will your vote get counted and
will voting work?

"I think that any real social change has come from people moving in the streets, has come from people fighting outside of elections and outside of the parliamentary method that we’re taught in a civics class, if people still have those."
Vicky Osterweil in her book,
“In Defense of Looting,”

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/vicky-osterweils-case-for-looting?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_090320&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&bxid=5bd67d4224c17c104802a222&cndid=48614199&hasha=0523227b7149c0b82cb49b2af58cfdec&hashb=b4d894932a65b44ae2bcace91ea577e9c3a69cdc&hashc=27b2e1888dfb7e258ae5036789675e58bea59212aedaefc767cca4308ce0a752&esrc=AUTO_OTHER&utm_term=TNY_Daily

[soleri]

Underneath the copyright notice of In Defense of Looting appears these words:
“The scanning, uploading, and distribution of this book without permission is a theft of the author’s intellectual property,”

Personally, I'm favor of stealing this book if only to make the author's point as explicitly as possible.

[Cal Lash]

Shoplifting at Powell's???

[soleri]

Wokeness never sleeps, particularly in Portland.

[Cal Lash]

Portland WOKENESS?
Is that you?
More NUDE cyclist and less guns.
Beware Nudity in video
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=nude+bicyclists+video+in+spain&docid=608011449100142713&mid=A178553AE5E1871A973AA178553AE5E1871A973A&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

[El Kabong]

I've also been of the "I'll believe Arizona's going blue when I see it" persuasion. But I think we started to see it in 2018. The Arizona Republican Party has gone all in for Trump. I think it will pay a significant price for that.

I think Jeff Flake is right that you can't build a consistent majority on fear and resentment. I hope he's right.

[Cal Lash]

Flake is not a Udall but he and other LDS appear to becoming more like Jesus than others. Its pretty obvious Trump is an evangelistic profiteer. Time for him to get tossed out of the temple.

[El Kabong]

"Time for him to get tossed out of the temple." Amen.

[Cal Lash]

(LDS) Ann Romney joins Michelle Obama to get out the vote.
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/515051-ann-romney-to-join-tv-special-with-michelle-obama-to-get-out

[Pop Logan]

Most of my life I have been an independent, and considered myself a moderate. I have served in the military and worked for DoD and a federal law enforcement agency. I voted for Republicans for President until 2000, but could not vote for someone as unqualified as Dub. Wanted to vote for McCain, but he lost me when he selected Palin as his running mate. I knew from the start that Trump was morally, intellectually and temperamentally unqualified for the job, and nothing has happened in the last 4 years to prove me wrong.

I seem to run contrary to the theory that you become more conservative as you grow older. I hope that I am not the exception to the rule, and that many other 60+ voters will recognize the incompetence and corruption of this administration and sweep them out. I have never voted a party ticket, but this year it is Biden, Kelly, and Tiperneni for me. Just wish Ducey was on the ballot this year so l could vote for his opponent too.