Phoenix in the 'teens'

In 2010, Phoenix and Arizona were stuck in the worst (by most measures) bust since the Great Depression. Unemployment peaked at 10.9% in January statewide and 10.2% in metro Phoenix. Single-family housing starts in the metro area plunged from a monthly peak of 6,000 in 2004 to 854. Construction jobs fell from 183,000 in June 2006 to 81,000 in the summer of 2010. Phoenix was a national epicenter of the housing crash.

It was an eerie time. Freeways that had been clogged with tradesmen's pickup trucks were noticeably empty.

Now, nearly a decade later, the economy has recovered. Metro Phoenix joblessness was 4.1% in October, higher than the 3.6% nationally but still a marked improvement. Building permits clawed out of the 2009 trough but are still at levels of the early 1990s.

Population — the holy of holies worshipped by the local-yokel boosters — bounced back. After falling from 2008 to 2010, it rose by 653,000 by 2018 in the metro area. A much ballyhooed snapshot had the city itself the fastest-growing in the United States from 2017 to 2018. But the percentage rate of change looks to be slower this decade than the 2000s or the record 1990s.

True, the decade doesn't officially end until a year from now. But the "twenties" begin in the popular imagination this New Year's. So let's take stock of the "teens":

The good:

• The 20-mile starter line of light rail (WBIYB) opened in late 2008 and has operated with notable success. It hooked up to Sky Harbor with the Sky Train and was expanded into Mesa and north toward Metrocenter. The sky didn't fall, as the thuggish opposition predicted. The south extension survived a Koch-sponsored effort to stop it (although the Council regrettably killed light rail to Paradise Valley mall). Tempe is nearly done with a streetcar, too.

• ASU's downtown campus came into its own with new buildings, an expanded footprint, and is now home to the second-largest student body after the Tempe campus. The light-rail connection has been essential to its success.

• Aided by light rail, downtown and Midtown Phoenix experienced their biggest construction boom since the 1960s. Land that had sat empty for decades was finally occupied by apartments and offices. One of the biggest coups was reviving Park Central, which will be home to Creighton University's $100 million health sciences campus. It will offer degrees in medicine, nursing, pharmacy, physical therapy, occupational therapy, and physician assistant. Another big step was Banner moving its corporate headquarters to the tower at Central and Thomas.

• Projects begun in the 2000s — the Phoenix Convention Center, Sheraton, Phoenix Biosciences Campus, CityScape, etc. — rode through the worst of the downturn and SB 1070 loss of convention business to find favorable results. The Biosciences campus expanded, although slowly. Roosevelt Row, a labor of love by the Resistance since the '80s, became a national destination.

The bad:

• The economic model didn't change. Real estate, retirees, tourists, low-wage back office and warehouse jobs, and a few legacy advanced manufacturing industries remained the backbone of the metro and state economy.

The Great Recession was what might be considered the ultimate teaching moment. After the comparatively mild "Barron's recession" of 1990, leaders established the infrastructure to go after high-wage economic clusters. The effort faded under the sugar high of population growth, but at least it was there. Not this time.

As a result, Phoenix is even further behind peer cities and metros in wages, quality of jobs, startups, venture capital, capturing the high end of tech (not data centers), and overall competitiveness. This may not matter to the championship golf zeitgeist, but reality says otherwise. Being behind means less opportunity and fewer ladders up, lack of corporate stewards and a narrower tax base.

Arizona's tax revenue increased only 1% as of the first quarter of 2019 from the pre-recession peak, adjusted for inflation. That compares with a U.S. average of 13% and 29% in booming Washington state, 30% in Oregon, and 32% in Colorado (all supposedly "Blue state hellholes").

• Segregation grew, with Anglos generally in the suburbs or suburban parts of Phoenix and Hispanics — mostly lower income — in most of the city. Phoenix has large numbers of distressed ZIP Codes compared with peer cities.

• Phoenix City Council lost the constructive majority responsible for much progress in the late 1990s and 2000s. After Greg Stanton stepped down as mayor to run for Congress, a rump Council was essentially controlled by right-wing bomb thrower "Better Call Sal" DiCiccio. The new Council is largely untested and unlikely to find the old consensus.

• The prevailing statewide ideology remains: extreme right dogma, endless tax cuts, weak regulation, and inadequate investment in such areas as infrastructure (except for roads). The governor and his supporters call this "business friendly" and point to population growth or selective articles about "best place to start a business" as validation.

But in fact the state and metro are embarrassingly behind their blue counterparts in economic power and prosperity. Teacher pay and school funding is at Mississippi levels. Higher-education funding cuts were the worst in the nation. Combined with the low-end economy and overhang of deferred maintenance etc. from the Great Recession, the red dogma makes for continued crises and regression.

• The Great Recession provided a desperately needed break from the feverish sprawl that has not only made Pinal County unsustainable but profaned some of the most beautiful parts of the state.

Alas, the mindset didn't change once the Real Estate Industrial Complex recovered from its epic face plant. The exurban-wilderness interface is at risk again. Sprawl is reaching outside Benson. This massive project would endanger the last free-flowing river in the Southwest.

All of this is totally car-dependent. Phoenix is the largest city in North America with no intercity passenger trains; it also lacks commuter trains. Instead, freeway building is happening on a scale that's rare these days. Boondoggles such as the South Mountain Freeway add huge unaccounted costs called externalities. They include pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, loss of rural land, and the induced demand effect increasing congestion.

Only a relative lack of interest by the capital markets and continued slack in the housing market prevented, say, Buckeye from becoming its own metropolis...for a while, at least.

The ultimate verdict on the "teens" is that it was the last decade when Arizona might have made the hard decisions to avert a climate catastrophe. And reality doesn't care what the climate science deniers "believe."

 

Comments

[Bill Pearson]

Let me be the first to wish everyone a happy and prosperous New Year. My fear is 2020 will be the ugliest time we have seen given the political climate and the pending election.

That out of the way, awesome column Jon. This state is so backwards it's painful to watch as the governor touts his plans for a better AZ and the results are little more than looking at a Chamber of Commerce brochure.

It is interesting to note the shifting sands and the idea AZ is purple rather than dead red is intriguing. One wonders where we will be 20 years from now. Sadly, long range planning has never been an AZ benchmark.

This column fits nicely with your last. It begs the question; can any major metropolis thrive without a more progressive agenda focusing on more robust industries than more sub-divisions and tourism?

I think not, but what the hell do i know eh?

[Joe I.]

Induced demand is a fictitious term when mentioned by itself. We could build larger freeways in North Dakota and it would probably not result in a greater demand for residential land. An appropriate supply of population has to be present for induced demand too even be mentioned. That said, the South Mountain freeway is a welcome addition to the road system in Phoenix. Now, if they could maintain the other roads appropriately we'd be headed the right direction!

Happy New Years!

[Amy mcnam]

Worked nearby walked home once PAM to Tempe fourteen miles along the routes scary as fuck it’s far too

[Cal Lash]

Arizona road maintenance is based on political party, religious orientation and wealth zone.
Phoenix was a nice town in 1950.
Now it's just ugly.
Tempe was a nice village in 1950.
But now it is really ugly and gets uglier by the mintue.
Now that Cochise county is growing maybe we can get a freeway from Mexico city to Benson.
Yep Arizona needs more freeways.
I'll notify ADOT next year.
Right after i do a campfire chat with Edward Abbey and his pals.
Hasta manana

[toughteri]

Hang on to your drawers, all, 2020 will be a whirlwind year. Cheers!

[Cal Lash]

Yep Teri, should be interesting!
Maybe better than Bush/Cheney as we invade Mexico, Iran and Iraq as Rocket Man, and Trump exchange, I love you Valentine greetings and Putin invites Donald to Russia, again for some unrecorded chit chat.
And of course we keep encouraging the Saudis that have been bankrolling Anerican Politicians since the CIA sailed the Adriatic, to keep bombing "the enemy" into the sand dunes
Hasta luego to 2019 a most insane year!

[Cal Lash]

First Iran and Iraq. Now if Trump can just figure out how to Drone that anti Trump commie in Mexico.

[Roger]

2019 was the year that may have turned me off from Phoenix and Arizona. I got to learn that the only model for growth was ... endless streams of people moving in. Not jobs. Not industries. Not anything else. I learned that the plan for our future water use was... deregulation.

Worse is the fact that the state still believes that the CAP will continue to flow for decades.

Worse-er is that all the industries here don't give a sh... darn.

When Governor Duchey told everyone that the state was "Open for Business" what he meant was the state was "For Sale". Land, water, copper, uranium, public lands- anything not nailed down can be yours for the low low price of making numbers up and getting the local rag and TV personalities to yuck it up a bit. Catherine Reagor for Governor!

I'm channeling my Ed Abbey, now. This state needs some wrenching.

[Cal Lash]

Roger, Wrenching is illegal and soon Boycotting capitalist enterprises will be also. I suspected decades ago that no major film producer would have the fortitude to make a movie out of Abbey's "The Monkey Wrench Gang."

[Joe Schallan]

Cal— how about the Coen brothers for doing the movie? The Big Wrenchowski? Oh Billboard Where Art Thou? True Grit (in the Gas Tank)??

[Cal Lash]

Joe, all news to me.
Whats Billboard?
I'll Google your suggestions.
Just in from watching The Song of Names.
Excellent film.

[Cal Lash]

You will have to provide more info.
I couldnt find what your posting about.
I dont see any connection between your post and Edward Abbey's Monkey Wrench Gang novel.

[Cal Lash]

Sorry Joe, i wasnt following. How about the Cohen's doing a movie based on
The Monkey Ranch Gang?
I would prefer that Ridley Scott and Quentin Tarantino collaborated on such.