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September 24, 2019

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Interesting analysis. For me the primary goal is to retire the incumbent. We don't need an exciting or charismatic candidate to do that. We need one whose positions won't drive away moderate voters.

That rules out Sanders, Warren, O'Rourke, Castro and Booker. Reparations, decriminalizing illegal immigration and abolishing private health insurance are losing positions.

Biden and Klobuchar aren't exciting. I think they can win the centrists and some anti-Trump Republicans, though. Besides, the positions of the Democratic left aren't going to become law unless the Republicans lose a lot more Senate seats than seems likely.

Excellent analysis Rogue!

Biden’s bankruptcy reform included closing a narrow path under the bankruptcy code to allow debtors to discharge much of their student loans.

Warren should pass on any presidential debate with the incumbent. There is no requirement for live debates and given the incumbent’s long history of various forms of abuse against women it would be appropriate.

The “moderate” voters in the northern battle ground states don’t decide statewide elections there. It’s all about motivating and focusing the Democratic base. Does it really matter if a never trumper or disaffected Republican in California, New York, Alabama or almost all the other states crosses over to vote for Biden or doesn’t for Warren.

Arizona is mostly unique in that a Democrat who walks like a Republican and talks like a Republican might win a statewide election once every few decades. That duck will not fly in northern battleground states because the base won’t show up.

The idea that the Bay Area would "lock up" for Gabbard is ... debatable.

She's not the kind of Hindu that other Hindus would recognize as Hindu.

She's a past supporter of various strong-man leaders.

Her campaign slogan, "A Warrior's Heart", is not well aligned with Bay Area voters.

Right now, he's against impeaching Trump.

I don't know if she's a witting tool, or an unwitting tool, but she's a tool: many of the social-media accounts that shill for her seem to be Russian or Ukrainian bots.

Fortunately, Democratic primary voters are visibly uninterested in her candidacy.

Rogue, I've loved your writing and loved you for a long time. Thanks. Here's my two cents: There is a very very neat guy named Sherrod Brown. I was hoping he would run for president and was very disappointed when he decided not to do that. Months later, I became very angry when I read that Mr. brown made that decision out of deference to Joe Siden when Biden decided to enter the race. I am an old Democrat who has very mixed feelings about Mr. Biden. -- currently foremost among those feelings are that J.B. Is a foolish and selfish man. If Biden falters...I wonder if Brown could still get inn...

a DNA test that failed to prove Indian ancestry.

You might want to google to confirm that, because as far as I can tell, it's false.

The report concluded there is “strong evidence” she had a Native American ancestor approximately six to 10 generations ago.

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/10/the-facts-on-elizabeth-warrens-dna-test/

Pretty much every reputable source seems to agree.


I think the Democrats may have made a mistake by not having a sold candidate by now. Trump is winning by frequency of appearances. He is hoping to pull off a couple of things that wiil increase his vote count and paranoid that the economy wiil take a big hit before the election.
Meanwhile he is doing everything possible to folks he hates. Like in California and Puerto Rico. And hurrying the destruction of the planet while insulting children.

That said if Bidens brain stays on the postive side of dementia and he picks Warrren as a running mate. It might work.
The White Man and his brain, Elizabeth.

Good piece Jon. And even though im still a registered Ike Republican i still would like to have coffee with Bernie and lunch with Jimmy and Rosalie Carter. Real people and really good people

Note: Joe might never been a politician if it wasnt for Jimmy Hoffa.The Irishman is soon to be released at your local theaters.

I've yet to hear anyone outside of Warren or Sanders say or push ideas that approach the populist approach Trump took in 2016:

"The U.S. is going to substantialy [sic] reduce taxes and regulations on businesses, but any business that leaves our country for another country, fires its employees, builds a new factory or plant in the other country, and then thinks it will sell its products back into the U.S. without retribution or consequences, is WRONG!"

If our nation isn't going to support the needs of its citizens, regardless of color, race, religion, sexuality or gender, then we are not a Democracy. Trump lied and cut taxes for billionaires and corporations and left workers holding the bag; he is gutting EPA regulations in the face of climate change; trying to roll back equality for LGBTQ people; building walls instead of bridges. On and on it goes and people keep wanting a 'centrist'??? Let me ask a question: How do you compromise with a fascist and fascist party? Answer: Ask Neville Chamberlain.

I'm sending Bernie and Elizabeth bottles of Scotch Wiskey and boxes of Cuban Romeo and Julieta's.

Good analysis. Seems to me that every candidate with the possible exception of Delaney and Gabbard are so far left, they are practically immune from being attractive to mainstream voters. Those two definitely don't meet your experience and accomplishment bar.

Biden is allegedly moderate, but he has taken positions so far left it will be hard to tack to the middle. And of course there is the fact that he is the Gaffematic 2000, not to mention the current ethics issues he has to survive which an impeachment wouldn't make any easier. He's not exactly inspiring.

In fact, there's very little charisma or inspiration in the bunch. What there is, the only voters getting inspired are the far left and people who are willing to vote for anyone who is running against Trump. Will those be enough to tip the scales in favor of a Nominee Warren or Sanders?

Sure, Trump didn't have the experience and credentials candidates really should have, but he has charisma to a lot of people and an uncanny knack for connecting with many voters. Do any of the thin-resumed Dems have that?

Politics is sales, and there are no absolute rules on what can work in either field. If you can get enough people to buy what you're selling, they don't care what your background is.

By the way, since Alfred E. Newman is officially retired from Mad Magazine, maybe he would actually consider running.

Don't know if any of you ever saw the in-depth interview of Kelly Ann Conway soon after the election. She laid out in detail how she got Trump elected. Using voter data, which they learned how to do from the democrats, they targeted the appropriate voting districts and sold Trump to them like they were selling them a brand of toothpaste (her words). I couldn't believe what I was seeing and hearing. She fully admitted to using the democrat's data collecting methods and did a better job of selling her product. The democrats didn't have a product back then and they don't have one now. Another thing she said, "trust your own data and disregard the polls conducted by others."

My words, " if you trust the polls of our current broken media, you are a fool".

Trump Whitening toothpaste?

This just in: UC Berkeley poll has Warren waaay ahead in California primary. Mind you, just a poll. The plot thickens...

Trump Toothpaste "Make your teeth and your country whiter"

Warren - as my ancestors did, "use a stick or a pine needle"

Biden, Bernie - "teeth? who has teeth?"

Kind of depressing when the parties are in a big battle of " your corruption is worse than our corruption. "

Either way, we lose. (:-(

Posted to the "War on Shade" column.
Where the trees have gone and why I keep hanging out with Thomas and Jared.
https://lithub.com/are-civilization-and-income-inequality-inextricably-intertwined/

While I immensely enjoy your history columns, I think writing like this is where you have the most impact.
My primary objective is also to retire the incumbent. While I find your concise descriptions of each candidates drawbacks discouraging, I am also in agreement. It concerns me that the D's can't put up a seasoned male moderate with good creds. I would vote for a woman pres in an instant, but worry about all those who won't and the goal is retirement. MAGAbots I have spoken with are enchanted by their growing largess in the healthy economy, which they mistakenly attribute to Trump, and his hardline trade policies. The banksters seem to be backing away from their self fulfilling recession predictions, which would put Trump in the dumpster.
Anyway, I just read your musings column and while as a newcomer, I didn't know any of the vanished ATeam, people come and they go. Actually, they are probably still around, just silent.

Maybe, they gave up?

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/08/01/how-rousseau-predicted-trump

Back in the 1990s or so, there used to be a widespread fear of a shadowy cult called the Illuminati. The fear disappeared when it was discovered that they were actually a very real organization called the Christian Dominionists. The wave of rationality unleashed by this unburdening was probably one of the main reasons Obama got reelected.

Now there is a new shadowy cult everyone is afraid of, the Alt Left. And it appears that the Alt Left is simply the Federalist Society. If this is substantiated, America will experience another wave of rationality.

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