The field

Carl Muecke illustration

Even though seven have dropped out, 19 Democrats are still running for the presidential nomination. One of the many hard lessons of Donald Trump's Electoral College win is that anyone can run for president, whatever (insert pronoun-war choice here)'s qualifications.

I'm old enough to remember when each party put up their most experienced and accomplished people to become Leader of the Free World. Ike never held elective office, but as a five-star general he successfully managed the politically charged alliance that liberated Western Europe. Reagan was "just an actor" (so was I, so this dismissal always grated), but he served two terms as governor of the nation's then-third largest state. The same was true of W. His father was "Mister Resume." JFK's resume was thinner, but included war hero, congressman and Senator.

No more. Here's my take, and the comments section is below for your's:

Michael Bennet. Who? He's a Senator from Colorado, been in office for 10 years, and before that was Denver superintendent of schools. Enough said.

Joe Biden. While the former vice president is experienced and has a centrist temperament, he's bungled two previous presidential runs, wears a target for every opponent, and is a haphazard speaker. His handling of Anita Hill and support for bankruptcy "reform" would dog him. He'd be no match for Trump in a debate.

Cory Booker. The New Jersey Senator and former mayor of Newark is a gifted orator. Still, he lacks large-scale executive experience or foreign-policy chops. The Newark water contamination will bite him. And, as with many of the candidates, he's from the Northeast, which hasn't produced a winning Democratic presidential candidate since 1960.

Steve Bullock. Who? The Montana governor might bring along a red state with three electoral votes. Otherwise, we're once again presented with a candidate who has no major executive experience, no foreign policy experience, and would be chewed up by Trump in debate.

Pete Buttigieg. Everybody loves Mayor Pete. He's young! He's articulate! He's gay! He gets the existential crisis of climate change! So far, he'll carry every deep-blue bastion. Let's get real. The man is mayor of a small Indiana city (South Bend ranks 306th in population). Like so many of these candidates, he needs to run for U.S. Senate, which, without commanding Democratic control, none of the plans of these candidates will happen, even if they win.

Julián Castro. He's young! He's handsome! He speaks Spanish! He's a POC! Once again, the bluest places will swoon — but they don't have enough electoral votes to carry the White House. Trump will paint Castro as an advocate of open borders. He showed a no-class moment in the debate where he badgered Biden over his memory. Older people vote. And once again, thin resume: San Antonio mayor and cabinet secretary.

John Delaney. Who?

Tulsi Gabbard. She's young! She's female! She's Hindu! She's a POC! This again solidly locks up Seattle, the Evergreen State College, Bay Area, LA, and Boston (despite the fact that she was an Army National Guard officer, too). Unfortunately, while Gabbard has served four terms in the U.S. House, only James Garfield rose directly from that body to be elected president. Rutherford B. Hayes likely lost the election of 1876 but secured Democratic support in the House in exchange for ending Reconstruction — and initiating decades of Jim Crow. She has the same lack of experience in foreign affairs that should disqualify so many other candidates for 2020. 

Kamala Harris. The California Senator enjoyed an early burst but lately has settled into the second tier in polls. A product of the Bay Area political machine and former state attorney general, Harris has star power and a toughness that might hold up to Trump. Might. But she's almost a freshman Senator, with no major legislative accomplishments or foreign policy experience. She won't swing those few Midwest districts that made the difference in 2016.

Amy Klobuchar. The Minnesota Senator was tough in her questioning of Brett Kavanaugh. She's a centrist who wants to go after votes in red states. So far, not bad. Unfortunately, she lacks charisma and can't get traction in a crowded field.

Wayne Messam. Another mayor of an even smaller town.

Beto O’Rourke. Everybody loves the former El Paso congressman. He's handsome! He speaks Spanish! He promises to come after our assault rifles! Everybody loves Robert Francis O'Rourke except the swing voters who will decide the election. Beto couldn't even win the Senate race against a weak Ted Cruz in Texas. 'Nuff said.

Tim Ryan. Who??

Bernie Sanders. Peggy Noonan's description fits well: "He comes across like your angry Menshevik uncle in the attic, but like that uncle he means what he says, is sincere and convinced, and that has its own power." I know several friends of the blog love the Bern. And if the future of the republic were not at risk, I would love to see Sanders win the nomination, be destroyed by the right and lose badly to Trump. At no point in American history has a left-wing candidate won the presidency. Ask President McGovern.

Joe Sestak. Former congressman and admiral. No chance.

Tom Steyer. Three words: Hedge fund billionaire.

Elizabeth Warren. She's smart, came up from a modest Oklahoma background, did pathbreaking research on middle-class economic troubles while a Harvard professor, established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and has detailed plans for nearly everything. The last such candidate to offer such detailed policy positions was...Hillary Clinton. Trump is especially effective against women in debates and already has nailed Warren as "Pocahontas," something she made worse by recklessly taking a DNA test that failed to prove Indian ancestry.

Marianne Williamson. She's a thoughtful essayist. Otherwise, in addition to lacking any government or foreign policy experience, Williamson comes off as a kook.

Andrew Yang. Detailed plans for everything, but the former tech executive once again lacks the experience that was once considered foundational for any successful presidential candidate. That was before Trump, and Yang is no Trump.

It's a weak field. And remember how Trump dismantled the clown car full of (on paper) highly qualified Republican primary candidates in 2016. He's scrambled our politics so much that only someone who can play reality television can compete. Maybe the country is so sick of Trump that the fever will break and he'll be ousted in a rush for decency and normality. But none of the Democrats project the optimism of an Obama or Reagan — and American voters like optimism.

Matt Taibbi put it well in an August essay:

The average American likes meat, sports, money, porn, cars, cartoons, and shopping. Less popular: socialism, privilege-checking, and the world ending in 10 years. Ironically, perhaps because of Trump, Democratic Party rhetoric in 2020 is relentlessly negative about the American experience. Every speech is a horror story about synagogue massacres or people dying without insulin or atrocities at the border. Republicans who used to complain about liberals “apologizing for America” were being silly, but 2020 Democrats sound like escapees from the Killing Fields.

Ronald Reagan once took working-class voters away from Democrats by offering permission to be proud of the flag. Trump offers permission to occupy the statistical American mean: out of shape, suffering from gas, poorly read, anti-intellectual, treasuring things above meaning, and hiding an awful credit history.

Can Warren do a reverse Nixon, running to the left in the primaries and pivoting to the center for the general? Maybe. She's the strongest candidate of the bunch. But I'm not convinced the majority of Americans are ready for the most extreme positions of the Democratic left.

 

 

 

 

Comments

[El Kabong]

Interesting analysis. For me the primary goal is to retire the incumbent. We don't need an exciting or charismatic candidate to do that. We need one whose positions won't drive away moderate voters.

That rules out Sanders, Warren, O'Rourke, Castro and Booker. Reparations, decriminalizing illegal immigration and abolishing private health insurance are losing positions.

Biden and Klobuchar aren't exciting. I think they can win the centrists and some anti-Trump Republicans, though. Besides, the positions of the Democratic left aren't going to become law unless the Republicans lose a lot more Senate seats than seems likely.

[Zack]

Excellent analysis Rogue!

Biden’s bankruptcy reform included closing a narrow path under the bankruptcy code to allow debtors to discharge much of their student loans.

Warren should pass on any presidential debate with the incumbent. There is no requirement for live debates and given the incumbent’s long history of various forms of abuse against women it would be appropriate.

The “moderate” voters in the northern battle ground states don’t decide statewide elections there. It’s all about motivating and focusing the Democratic base. Does it really matter if a never trumper or disaffected Republican in California, New York, Alabama or almost all the other states crosses over to vote for Biden or doesn’t for Warren.

Arizona is mostly unique in that a Democrat who walks like a Republican and talks like a Republican might win a statewide election once every few decades. That duck will not fly in northern battleground states because the base won’t show up.

[joel hanes]

The idea that the Bay Area would "lock up" for Gabbard is ... debatable.

She's not the kind of Hindu that other Hindus would recognize as Hindu.

She's a past supporter of various strong-man leaders.

Her campaign slogan, "A Warrior's Heart", is not well aligned with Bay Area voters.

Right now, he's against impeaching Trump.

I don't know if she's a witting tool, or an unwitting tool, but she's a tool: many of the social-media accounts that shill for her seem to be Russian or Ukrainian bots.

Fortunately, Democratic primary voters are visibly uninterested in her candidacy.

[C. Cannon]

Rogue, I've loved your writing and loved you for a long time. Thanks. Here's my two cents: There is a very very neat guy named Sherrod Brown. I was hoping he would run for president and was very disappointed when he decided not to do that. Months later, I became very angry when I read that Mr. brown made that decision out of deference to Joe Siden when Biden decided to enter the race. I am an old Democrat who has very mixed feelings about Mr. Biden. -- currently foremost among those feelings are that J.B. Is a foolish and selfish man. If Biden falters...I wonder if Brown could still get inn...

[joel hanes]

a DNA test that failed to prove Indian ancestry.

You might want to google to confirm that, because as far as I can tell, it's false.

The report concluded there is “strong evidence” she had a Native American ancestor approximately six to 10 generations ago.

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/10/the-facts-on-elizabeth-warrens-dna-test/

Pretty much every reputable source seems to agree.

[Cal Lash]

I think the Democrats may have made a mistake by not having a sold candidate by now. Trump is winning by frequency of appearances. He is hoping to pull off a couple of things that wiil increase his vote count and paranoid that the economy wiil take a big hit before the election.
Meanwhile he is doing everything possible to folks he hates. Like in California and Puerto Rico. And hurrying the destruction of the planet while insulting children.

That said if Bidens brain stays on the postive side of dementia and he picks Warrren as a running mate. It might work.
The White Man and his brain, Elizabeth.

Good piece Jon. And even though im still a registered Ike Republican i still would like to have coffee with Bernie and lunch with Jimmy and Rosalie Carter. Real people and really good people

Note: Joe might never been a politician if it wasnt for Jimmy Hoffa.The Irishman is soon to be released at your local theaters.

[Roger]

I've yet to hear anyone outside of Warren or Sanders say or push ideas that approach the populist approach Trump took in 2016:

"The U.S. is going to substantialy [sic] reduce taxes and regulations on businesses, but any business that leaves our country for another country, fires its employees, builds a new factory or plant in the other country, and then thinks it will sell its products back into the U.S. without retribution or consequences, is WRONG!"

If our nation isn't going to support the needs of its citizens, regardless of color, race, religion, sexuality or gender, then we are not a Democracy. Trump lied and cut taxes for billionaires and corporations and left workers holding the bag; he is gutting EPA regulations in the face of climate change; trying to roll back equality for LGBTQ people; building walls instead of bridges. On and on it goes and people keep wanting a 'centrist'??? Let me ask a question: How do you compromise with a fascist and fascist party? Answer: Ask Neville Chamberlain.

[Cal Lash]

I'm sending Bernie and Elizabeth bottles of Scotch Wiskey and boxes of Cuban Romeo and Julieta's.

[Jon7190]

Good analysis. Seems to me that every candidate with the possible exception of Delaney and Gabbard are so far left, they are practically immune from being attractive to mainstream voters. Those two definitely don't meet your experience and accomplishment bar.

Biden is allegedly moderate, but he has taken positions so far left it will be hard to tack to the middle. And of course there is the fact that he is the Gaffematic 2000, not to mention the current ethics issues he has to survive which an impeachment wouldn't make any easier. He's not exactly inspiring.

In fact, there's very little charisma or inspiration in the bunch. What there is, the only voters getting inspired are the far left and people who are willing to vote for anyone who is running against Trump. Will those be enough to tip the scales in favor of a Nominee Warren or Sanders?

Sure, Trump didn't have the experience and credentials candidates really should have, but he has charisma to a lot of people and an uncanny knack for connecting with many voters. Do any of the thin-resumed Dems have that?

Politics is sales, and there are no absolute rules on what can work in either field. If you can get enough people to buy what you're selling, they don't care what your background is.

[Jon7190]

By the way, since Alfred E. Newman is officially retired from Mad Magazine, maybe he would actually consider running.

[Ruben]

Don't know if any of you ever saw the in-depth interview of Kelly Ann Conway soon after the election. She laid out in detail how she got Trump elected. Using voter data, which they learned how to do from the democrats, they targeted the appropriate voting districts and sold Trump to them like they were selling them a brand of toothpaste (her words). I couldn't believe what I was seeing and hearing. She fully admitted to using the democrat's data collecting methods and did a better job of selling her product. The democrats didn't have a product back then and they don't have one now. Another thing she said, "trust your own data and disregard the polls conducted by others."

My words, " if you trust the polls of our current broken media, you are a fool".

[Cal Lash]

Trump Whitening toothpaste?

[Norm W]

This just in: UC Berkeley poll has Warren waaay ahead in California primary. Mind you, just a poll. The plot thickens...

[Ruben]

Trump Toothpaste "Make your teeth and your country whiter"

Warren - as my ancestors did, "use a stick or a pine needle"

Biden, Bernie - "teeth? who has teeth?"

[Ruben]

Kind of depressing when the parties are in a big battle of " your corruption is worse than our corruption. "

Either way, we lose. (:-(

[Cal Lash]

Posted to the "War on Shade" column.
Where the trees have gone and why I keep hanging out with Thomas and Jared.
https://lithub.com/are-civilization-and-income-inequality-inextricably-intertwined/

[TimBob]

While I immensely enjoy your history columns, I think writing like this is where you have the most impact.
My primary objective is also to retire the incumbent. While I find your concise descriptions of each candidates drawbacks discouraging, I am also in agreement. It concerns me that the D's can't put up a seasoned male moderate with good creds. I would vote for a woman pres in an instant, but worry about all those who won't and the goal is retirement. MAGAbots I have spoken with are enchanted by their growing largess in the healthy economy, which they mistakenly attribute to Trump, and his hardline trade policies. The banksters seem to be backing away from their self fulfilling recession predictions, which would put Trump in the dumpster.
Anyway, I just read your musings column and while as a newcomer, I didn't know any of the vanished ATeam, people come and they go. Actually, they are probably still around, just silent.

[Cal Lash]

Maybe, they gave up?

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/08/01/how-rousseau-predicted-trump

[Collin Merenoff]

Back in the 1990s or so, there used to be a widespread fear of a shadowy cult called the Illuminati. The fear disappeared when it was discovered that they were actually a very real organization called the Christian Dominionists. The wave of rationality unleashed by this unburdening was probably one of the main reasons Obama got reelected.

Now there is a new shadowy cult everyone is afraid of, the Alt Left. And it appears that the Alt Left is simply the Federalist Society. If this is substantiated, America will experience another wave of rationality.