The Census reported earlier this spring that Phoenix was the fastest-growing city in the country. During the Great Recession, I wrote in jest the prayer of the Arizona developer: "Please God, give me one more boom, with championship golf." And the prayer has been answered, or so it seems on the surface.
The city added 25,288 new residents between 2017-2018. But even adding in fast-growing suburbs such as Buckeye and the "town" of Gilbert, the metropolitan area is far below the 100,000-plus it was growing in the 1990s and early 2000s. A glowing Forbes article talked of "a business-friendly environment, plentiful job opportunities and affordable cost of living." But the reality is closer to the one elucidated by commenter Concern Troll: Most of the population increase in Phoenix can be attributed to retirees and the low-wage service jobs that cater to them.
Permits for new housing units in metro Phoenix haven't recovered to their pre-crash levels; they're about where they stood in the early 1990s. Construction employment is only where it stood at the turn of the century, far below the mid-2000s. If the local-yokel boosters — "things must be good because people keep moving here" — are having a growthgasm, they're faking it.
There's growth and then there's growth. In 2017, median household income in Maricopa County grew to a record $62,221. But this was far below the $89,919 in Seattle's King County or Denver's $64,974. Per-capita personal income — the economist's gold standard for individual well-being — clocked metro Phoenix at a little more than $44,000 in 2017, the most recent year for which data are available. That compares with more than $69,000 in Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue; around $60,000 in Denver; $55,000 in Austin, and $54,000 in Portland. No, lower cost of living doesn't even things out. And these are all cities against which Phoenix is competing for talent and capital.
Phoenix ranks as one of the worst cities for growth of its millennial population. It even ranks poorly for baby boomers. This helps explain why it has such a low percentage of its adult population with bachelor's degrees or higher among major metros. It's home to one of the largest public universities in the country but can't retain this talent base.
Phoenix is the nation's fifth-largest city in the 13th-largest metropolitan area. But it comes in at No. 67 (160th in young-firm employment and 240th in per-capita income) in the new Walton Family Foundation report on Most Dynamic Metros. It did better in the Milken Institute's Best Performing Cities analysis, coming in at 20 yet still punching below its weight. Metro Phoenix lacks a single charitable foundation among the nation's top 50. Funding for the arts is staggeringly low.
On the latest Brookings Institution Metro Monitor, Phoenix came in No. 74 on standard of living and No. 31 in average annual wage. Phoenix has an abysmal showing in job concentration, a critical measure of how metros perform in the most advanced technology sectors. Astoundingly, Phoenix even does poorly in so-called opportunity jobs — promising positions for those without a college degree (coming in 76th in this rigorous Federal Reserve study). In other words, this is no blue-collar heaven, even if it performs poorly in advanced, high-skilled college-degree jobs.
Fifth most populous city in the United States. But Phoenix ranks only 56th on the Center for Public Land's authoritative ParkScore. Mesa, 35th by population, ranks No. 95, next to last on ParkScore. Phoenix ranks 29th out of 30 largest cities in walkability.
As regular readers know, population growth brings carrying costs: Increased need for infrastructure, public services, schools, healthcare, not to mention the externalities — the cloaked expenses from more sprawl, destruction of the environment, pollution, etc. Growth doesn't pay for itself, certainly not in Arizona.
Meanwhile, a new study finds that many shrinking cities are prospering. Smaller cities rank higher on most measures of quality, including ParkScore.
Here's some growth that matters: High-wage jobs, income, school funding and teacher pay, headquarters companies, adults with bachelor's degrees or higher, advanced industries, people moving out of poverty, cultural institutions, transit and passenger-train service, venture capital, startups, planting of shade trees, historic preservation, an environmental ethic, quality density, patents...constructive politics. Call me when this happens at a fastest, fifth-largest level in Phoenix.
Sorry to sun on the parade.
Where will the water come from?
Posted by: joel hanes | June 19, 2019 at 08:13 PM
Jon, its old people! Next time you are in Phoenix take about a 6 hour drive between far west Buckeye and east of Gold Canyon. They are even building homes in Peralta Canyon for old people. And in Phoenix its ugly 3 or more story apartments everywhere. And Extended Stay continues to build. The Valley of the Sun will be a safe place from the rising sea levels as the glaciers continue to melt at a phenomenal pace. Oh well the planet will deal with humans by 2100 as it provides catastrophes reducing the human population by at least 6 billion. Remaining will be hunter gathers and Bankers.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM
You, Cal, are an optimist on two counts. 2100 (2050 if we are lucky), and those rising water levels will be at least marginally saline based and won't do much for the looming water crisis here. I doubt we will be much of a safe haven.
The folks who are really profiting in PHX are the large scale landlords. They keep turning over their properties and jacking the rents. I am on the mailing list of an income property broker and the progression is stunning, while so many people I know with good - if not great - jobs are "to poor to stay, no money to move". I have no idea how anyone who doesn't have an income in excess of 60k or a trust fund lives here unless they bought a house in 2009. Of course, those are exactly the people who lost their houses in 2009, so there you go. The only question in this game of musical chairs is who will still be here when the music stops.
Posted by: Colleen | June 20, 2019 at 12:32 PM
Yep.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 20, 2019 at 12:39 PM
Succinct analysis, Jon. The overarching problem in metro Phoenix (and, you know I've consistently harped on this) is the lack of love for and commitment to the place. Outsiders love the scenery and winter weather but residents don't hold a "patriotism" for the place like residents of other places. That's where the problem starts. The "shakers" here are around mostly to exploit the millions who live here for their own personal reasons. There's no real community esprit de corps. People have been conditioned by the shallow suburban potentates (who themselves care only about Glendale or Gilbert) and the mediocre media to call the place "the Valley." What more meaningless, colorless way to refer to a discrete place than that? Not only are they not proud of "Phoenix," they don't even like to use the word. It is a self-defeating pathology.
Posted by: Phil Motta | June 20, 2019 at 12:42 PM
Jeez, sounds like Phoenix has nothing to complain about. At least they did not make like the leaders of Pinal County and decide that they would make prisons the biggest employer in the county. Sad... all those people I went to school with now dealing with PTSD, low pay and the threat of being hurt by criminals. Way to go Pinal County Board of Supervisors.... :(
Posted by: JD Smith | June 20, 2019 at 12:48 PM
For many years i have heard some say
"we should annex Mexico."
If you havent noticed Phoenix is being annexed. Maryvale is now West Mexico and if you drive the east side streets from Broadway to Thomas, welcome to East Mexico. I love the great signs, Llantas aqui and the many murals that have arisen. Check out Oak Street between 14th and 15th street.
We are here gringos!
Tu amigo. Gringo pata saluda, Cal!
Colleen, my friends in the Historic districts get offers every day for their old houses. So if you got the $$$$ one can put in a bid for the coming new luxury condos next to the big Cigna medical facility at 3rd street and Earl.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 20, 2019 at 04:36 PM
I believe we should have a Malthusian world recognized holiday.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 20, 2019 at 06:21 PM
PS, i left a comment on the Union Station article.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 20, 2019 at 06:22 PM
The Valley's leading industry appears to be growth. Not growing, but growth. Phoenix water managers told me that they had decoupled economic growth from water usage all while listening to the beginning of the end of Agriculture in Pinal county. I will miss the days of locally grown foods, including the massive amount of cattle and chicken that are fed by the alfalfa grown there. And if they think that won't impact the cities, they are crazy.
As to the importation of hispanics- awesome. I fail to see the problem with mixing and integrating cultures. The murals are always welcome as are the taco trucks.
But my heart is heavy. The city is getting too big for me. I may find my way to Tucson, where the growth is more limited, the people are more conscious of their place in the desert and our southern neighbor is a shorter drive away.
Posted by: Roger | June 21, 2019 at 02:24 PM
Roger, Try WHY! Or how bout AJO!
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 21, 2019 at 05:30 PM
Restructure the Arizona University System to provide greater accessibility, affordability, and accountability to a public university education for many more Arizonans:
http://PSUandAzTech.blogspot.com
Posted by: Sanjeev Ramchandra | June 22, 2019 at 12:25 AM
Roger, have you heard the approval is "in" to build thousands of houses near the San Pedro near Benson? And houses continue to go up on 10 and 19 as you go east or south from Tucson. Of course Trump is right climate change is fake news as those folks moving here are doing such only to play golf year around and get a tan.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 22, 2019 at 09:27 AM
From the front pages
Despite new law, Trump administration has not given Puerto Rico emergency food stamp aid.
Puerto Rico like California will be punished by Trump.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 24, 2019 at 10:34 PM
I have, Cal. That as well as the mine that will essentially ruin a beautiful part of the region. The state is gripped by construction developers.
We are a world away from the idiots running DC and NYC. I hate that their decisions impact us and we have little recourse in the matter.
As to Why or Ajo, are there jobs?
Posted by: Roger | June 25, 2019 at 08:09 AM
No but we could ooen a coffeeshop bookstore old person hangout. Might make a buck or two when the illegal Canadians are in.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 25, 2019 at 08:22 AM
"Laws change; people die;
the land remains"
Abraham Lincoln
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 26, 2019 at 12:57 PM