'No hurricanes in Arizona!'

This piece of boosterism is not technically true — the state has been hit by the remnants of powerful Pacific hurricanes. Indeed, Arizona should take stock of Hurricane Florence and its effects in North Carolina. Let me explain.

Hurricanes are nothing new to the Carolinas. What is new is their severity, in part caused by climate change, combined with population growth and development.

Hurricane Florence was only a Category 1 storm when it made landfall, yet it caused historic levels of flooding. This came only a year after flooding damage caused by Hurricane Maria. In some cases, the very same areas saw severe flooding. Parts of South Carolina saw some damage, too.

North Carolina's population grew by more than 21 percent in the 1990s and nearly 19 percent in the 2000s. In 2017, it had more than 10.2 million people. South Carolina added more than 15 percent in those same decades.

A good part of that came in vulnerable coastal areas. For example, Wilmington's New Hanover County, an epicenter of Florence flooding, stood at 227,000 last year, more than double from its 1980 population. Horry County, S.C., another hurricane target, held more than 333,000 last year, more than three times its 1980 numbers. 

Both Carolinas have allowed unregulated development in hurricane zones. This ranges from subdivision pods to industrial chicken and hog farming, the latter causing a toxic disaster now. Study of the effects of climate change on storms and rising sea levels is not only denied by state leaders but outlawed.

Another effect of the runaway development has been to destroy many natural safeguards against hurricanes and flooding, especially wetlands.

One can only imagine the consequences today if another Hurricane Hugo hit. Not if, but when.

Which brings us to Arizona.

Our fair state is now America's 14th most populous — the same size as Massachusetts or Washington, although it lacks their high-end assets (it does have abundant sunshine and championship golf). Phoenix is the nation's fifth-largest city, although it too lacks the assets of peer cities.

As in the Carolinas, no barriers stand in the way of development. Once-rural Pinal and Yavapai counties are exurban bedroom "communities" of metropolitan Phoenix. Thousands of houses are planned outside of Benson.

Although Arizona is full of climate-change deniers, the state hasn't outlawed its study. It simply is ignored. Serious assessments of water availability are either not done, are suppressed, or are gamed for fraudulent results.

The immense population influx (the state held 1.3 million in 1960) and churn, along with the power of the Real Estate Industrial Complex enable the short hustle and short memories.

Few Arizonans remember when the High Country was wild and mostly empty, before shady land swaps vomited subdivisions into former National Forest land. Few remember when we didn't have the monstrous and lethal wildfires of the past 20 years.

Nineteen Prescott firefighters killed in the Yarnell fire of 2013 would have lived in earlier times because there were neither such conflagrations nor the exurban sprawl outside Yarnell they were trying to protect.

Arizona's clear and present danger is climate change. Summers are getting hotter and lasting longer. And, as with the Carolinas, Arizona has destroyed many of its natural protections. The biggest, of course, is low population — we're now way past overshoot.

But Phoenix also paved over the groves, farms, and desert that lowered temperatures at night. It cut down thousands of shade trees and substituted heat-radiating gravel for grass. The ethos of newcomers is to do more ("we live in a desert!").

Yet central Phoenix especially is a natural oasis. The gravel and skeleton trees are ahistorical, not natural to the area, and making the effects of climate change much worse. Phoenix desperately needs to protect the remaining oasis and make the water investment for thousands of shade trees — instead of letting the water go to new sprawl  

Meanwhile, amid all the "what to do about the diminishing Colorado River" (never an issue before the CAP), the most important step is never mentioned: Stop the sprawl. Indeed, roll it back.

But how do you stop people from moving here? Taxes. The funding needs are enormous, including education and rail transit to give people transportation options. And land-use boundaries.

Everything beyond the above is blather. Arizona is ground zero for catastrophe. All the brightsiding and sales talk won't change it.

 

 

Comments

[soleri]

The quickening pace of natural catastrophes is beginning to create a few chinks in the armor of denialism. Most people have selective memories and hazy recall of anything beyond last year's once-in-a-lifetime weather event. But I notice there's not quite the same adamant refusal to entertain the elephant in the room. Donald Trump can change the subject to Mexican hordes and Muslim terrorists, but I'm hearing more words like "it didn't use to be like this".

Climate change is still a non-starter as a campaign issue but its day is coming if only because nature is not nearly as passive as Americans under the influence of TV and social media. At some point, a protracted drought will sharpen the collective focus of Arizonans. We are living beyond our means and the checking account is overdrawn.

It's too late, I suspect, for "life as we know it". A radically new day, predicted by all those know-it-all scientists Republicans love to mock, is fast approaching. A terrible quandary will present itself - which minority to blame for all of this. Who was busy overbreeding? Who was busy giving away all our precious Colorado River water to Mexico? I fully expect Republicans to blame Democrats for climate change before our species crashes altogether.

Karma is a bitch and she doesn't care how many Facebook friends you have or who you voted for. You can only mock reality for so long before it bites you hard on the ass and doesn't let go.

[Cal Lash]

Good column, Jon ( the comma was approved by Pompeo)
Only the planet earth has the ability to destroy that which is “buried under asphalt and greed.”
“when the cities are gone and all the ruckus has died away. when sunflowers push up through the concrete and asphalt of the forgotten interstate freeways. when the Kremlin & the Pentagon are turned into nursing homes for generals, presidents, & other such shit heads. when the glass-aluminum sky scraper tombs of Phoenix, AZ barely show above the sand dunes. why then, by God, maybe free men & wild women on horses can roam the sagebrush canyonlands in freedom...and dance all night to the music of fiddles! banjos! steel guitars! by the light of a reborn moon!”
― Edward Abbey
“Water, water, water....There is no shortage of water in the desert but exactly the right amount , a perfect ratio of water to rock, water to sand, insuring that wide free open, generous spacing among plants and animals, homes and towns and cities, which makes the arid West so different from any other part of the nation. There is no lack of water here unless you try to establish a city where no city should be.”
― Edward Abbey, Desert Solitaire: A Season in the Wilderness

“What is the purpose of the giant sequoia tree? The purpose of the giant sequoia tree is to provide shade for the tiny titmouse.”
― Edward Abbey

The Great Sonoran desert will return when the last developer is “strangled with the entrails of the last” banker!

[Cal Lash]

OOPs. should read.
Only the planet earth has the ability to destroy that which has defiled the desert “buried under asphalt and greed.”

[Donna Ballard]

right as "rain"

[Rogue Columnist]

Rogue Columnist has now passed 30,000 comments. Thanks to all who have contributed. I think we have the smartest and most civil conversations here.

[Ramjet]

I have said it before and I will say it again.
We are screwing ourselves out of a place to stand.
Let's build walls on our western, northern, and eastern borders.

[Cal Lash]

For Ramjet,
Beyond the Wall by Ed Abbey aka cactus ed.

[Ruben]

If you change "not" to "now", I"ll crack open a beer and toast to your milestone.

[Done. Thanks for the catch. — RC]

[Bradley Dranka]

As long as the Arizona and Phoenix powerholders continue their "boosterism" designed to keep the "paradise" Ponzi scheme chugging along, the gullible will follow. But, remember, climate warming deniers: It's not nice to fool Mother Nature!

[James Rowland]

My parents built a house in an east side subdivision, and we moved in in 1956 when I was 10. Before the subdivision the land was desert. One of the first things my dad did was to plant four shade trees, two in front and two in back. A year or so later he planted two more trees. I sold the house almost two decades ago. The last time I visited the old neighborhood, a few years ago, I noticed that all of the shade trees had been removed, not only from my parents' former home, but throughout the neighborhood. If I moved back to Phoenix I'd make sure that my home was covered by shade trees. So, why are there fewer trees now? My guess, and it is only a guess, is that in 1956 virtually everybody had evap cooling, so anything that helped to keep a house cool was used. Over the years virtually every house converted to air conditioning, so in terms of comfort all you have to do is dial the temperature. So, anybody have some other ideas -- I'd really like to know.

[Amy Kirkwood]

I'd like to see more shade as well independent of taxes SOMEOneust figure in the coat continuation of the body and soul to live in AZ. How lovely is it to walk outside and be hit

[Amy Kirkwood]

Oops typod h hit trees

[Ruben]

Amy, your typo ," how lovely it is to walk outside and be hit", perfectly describes the life and death of pedestrians in metro Phoenix.

[mikeinw]

Labor Day Floods of 1970 ...

[DoggieCombover]

Better yet would be to control the water supply. Trouble is, there is, relatively speaking, a supply yet that will provide for lots more development. SRP won't admit it, but they have water due to the fact that an acre of development uses waaay less water than an acre of cotton, and I believe 90+ percent of their service area is developed now. The Indians have an absurd amount of water due the water rights settlement that somehow envisioned them as farmers far beyond current practice. Solve the water and solve the issue.

Point of clarification, the Yarnell fire fatalities were not due to an abnormal fire that didn't historically occur, they died in the middle of chaparral, which has always burned explosively. They also violated basically every fundamental safety practice by ending up there, google the "Ten Standard Firefighting Orders" sometime. What is abnormal are megafires in ponderosa pine forests.

[Ruben]

The fire bosses who broke so many basic safety rules are all still in their positions or happily retired.

[ed dravo]

James

I suspect the homeowners petitioned SRP to close the irrigation flow to the homes. Every neighbor congruent to the other neighbors along the irrigation route must opt out of the flow. SRP then blocks the pipe delivering water to those homes. They then destroy the delivery box so that the neighbors can’t restart it. To restart the flow all the homes along that water route must sign back on. If there are apartments on the block they’re usually the bad news.

[ὀστρακισμός]

I’m hoping for a Kavanaugh column soon!

[Cal Lash]

The column where Brett and Leonard are incarcerated in Rome by Francis for quisling.

[Ruben]

A senile Grassley and a senile Feinstein heading up a committee. What could go wrong.

[Cal Lash]

Cavanaugh drops out after Grassley and Feinstein agree to make Howard Roark a Supreme Court justice.