A decade ago, Arizona and metropolitan Phoenix became an epicenter of the Great Recession, brought on by Wall Street hustles and Sun Belt overbuilding. Statewide unemployment reached a high of 10.9 percent, slightly less in Phoenix and Tucson. The speculative real-estate economy, which had become the economy, collapsed. House prices fell 50 percent or more, with historic levels of foreclosures or people being underwater on their mortgages. For many, this meant financial ruin. The overall damage was far worse than 1990 and both the state and metro area trailed their peers by years in recovering. Even now, the number of construction workers is at 1999 levels, even though population has grown considerably.
Ten years later, what's most remarkable is how little has changed. The one exception is real progress with central Phoenix infill, but it's a smidgen of the overall situation.
Sprawl development-driven economy? Check. Dependence on lower-skilled, lower-paid back office jobs? Check. The economic center in the car-dependent office "parks" of the East Valley? Check. Poorly-funded schools, more Big Sort Republican newcomers, Kooks in control of state government? Check, check, and check. Phoenix is the only major metropolitan area in North America that's building extensive new freeways, including the corruption-ridden South Mountain loop.
In other words, the vulnerabilities that drove Phoenix into a ditch a decade ago have been sustained and reinforced. No lessons learned. Nothing to see here, it's sunny with championship golf, so buy a tract house or move along. As Talleyrand said of the Bourbon dynasty, "They had learned nothing and forgotten nothing."
The "learned nothing" part of the quote certainly applies. But this situation is remarkable even for Phoenix. When the hard times of the 1890s showed the limitations of irrigation dependent on the private-sector, Phoenix leaders made sure the Salt River Valley was first in line for federal reclamation under the Newlands Act. Arizona's support of FDR ensured that Phoenix received a disproportionate share of New Deal money, helping the city out of the Great Depression early.
When the end of World War II brought a sharp contraction, local bigs led by Frank Snell worked to recruit "clean industry." Their biggest prize was Motorola. The shock of the 1990 real-estate collapse led to the creation of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council and a cluster strategy to build high-tech, high-paid industries.
This time, it's wash, rinse, repeat. Not even an aspirational attempt at changing direction as in the 1990s, when the cluster strategy's focus was lost in the decade's red-hot population growth.
Why? First, the Real Estate Industrial Complex continues to call the shots. It benefits from the status quo. The normal pluralistic power that defines a normal city doesn't apply here. Phoenix has a much smaller advanced tech-based economy than in 1980, as well as no civic-minded corporate headquarters such as Dial and Valley National Bank. Second, the state has turned even redder. This guarantees public policies that make the metro and state unappealing to top talent and high-end investment.
Phoenix being named the second-fastest growing city last year is evidence to the local-yokel boosters that they're winning. So do the endless stream of "positive" press releases in the local business press and from the murky Arizona Commerce Authority. Amazon warehouses! But not even in the running for Amazon HQ2. The truth is that Phoenix is not competitive for its size (Denver, Portland, and Seattle outperform it by every quality measure). And more people bring carrying costs. The population growth also comes in two large blocks: Retirees and lower-skilled people seeking more affordable housing than, say, California. Neither will carry Phoenix to the Next Big Thing. Most don't even consider it home.
Beneath the surface, the past 10 years have brought substantial change. It's just not discussed except when Homey suns on the parade.
The city of Phoenix has gotten poorer. In 2017, more than 36 percent of the population lived in distressed ZIP codes, while only 19 percent lived in prosperous ones. The poor Hispanic population is disproportionately segregated in the linear slums of the city. Better-off Anglos live in the suburbs — 99.9 percent of Gilbert residents live in prosperous ZIP codes. For peer-city comparisons, San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, Denver and Austin have no distressed ZIPs. The percentage for Portland and Seattle is tiny.
Even by local-yokel standards, all is not well. The trend line for growth is far below historical levels for this point in an economic expansion. Aerospace is promoted as a big winner. Yet employment in April was about 14,000 (civilian labor force 2.3 million) compared with 19,000 in 1990. Building permits are well below 1990s or 2000s highs. Construction employment is little better than in the 2001 recession.
A precious decade has also been lost to prepare for climate change. Sprawl is expanding the single-family tract house blob from Yavapai County to Benson, with no thought about water (this is being gamed and concealed). Yes, light rail (WBIYB) — but it serves few employment centers and constructive policies such as carbon taxes and land-use boundaries are as likely as a space alien visitation.
Never let a crisis go to waste? Unfortunately, Phoenix failed this test.
Jon i got a fiver says your right!
Want to be houseless but not homeless
Read Nomadland by Jessica Bruder.
And Gilbert and ADOT have a lot in common.
Follow the money.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 07, 2018 at 03:06 PM
I have a relative who is both a trumpster and a Christian, and their take on global warming is that God has the power to get us out of what is coming. They don't deny global warming, but their belief is that God will step in. I have ceased speaking with them because they have adopted a condescending attitude toward science and my belief that God WLL NOT step in to save us from ourselves. This relative is almost a parrot for Fox News.
I think the attitude my relative has is probably shared by many in the Christian conservative trump-worshipping camp. It almost seems as if they feel that because they believe, they will somehow be exempted from Mother Nature's coming wrath. This probably accounts for the "devil may care" attitude prevalent in Arizona's powerholders toward global warming.
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 07, 2018 at 04:34 PM
Becoming a White Make God and owning a big slice of Heaven for you and your large family probably has some influence.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 07, 2018 at 04:44 PM
" 4 suprising places at risk because of climate change. "
The Alps, Alaska, the Dead Sea
and (you fill in the blank) _______.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 07, 2018 at 04:53 PM
Bradley-early in my career I was in the life insurance business and would run into a Christian who professed Life insurance was irrelevant since God was coming back anytime and it was unecessary.Being young I would argue the odds of that happening,but I soon learned that my best response was to just walk away and not waste my time
.As for the power structure in Phoenix,they remind me of Einstein's quote "doing the same thing and expectind a different result is the definition of insanity "Of course ,I have been saying this since I retired in 2006 so maybe I am wrong, but I am in Flagstaff 6 months out of the year and waiting to see when the Az. voter figures out they are insane to reelect the same wing nuts.
Posted by: Mike Doughty | June 08, 2018 at 10:49 AM
It's true that Arizona's kookie Republican State Legislature and poorly funded public schools are a big turn off to many out of state businesses and entrepreneurs thinking of relocating here. But there is progress in the right direction taking place in the Central Corridor and many new venues for visionary people to meet and hang out. There are positive movements taking place in greater Phoenix that will soon come into the light. So despite the hot summers and dark forces giving the State a bad image, better times are ahead for Arizona.
Posted by: James Melikian | June 08, 2018 at 10:54 AM
James-I hope you are right, but facts as written by RC show that sooner or later bad things are going to happen to my beloved Az.
Posted by: Mike Doughty | June 08, 2018 at 01:14 PM
Phoenix is my hometown and for this reason, I have an affinity for it. But many years ago I smartly left it and moved to the East Valley. I love it out here and will not choose to return. You can rail against the Legislature all you want. Much of it is deserved. But to ignore Phoenix' poor leadership comprised of Stanton who lacks intellect is just being blind. Don't be blind Jon!
Posted by: Andrea Angulo Gutierrez | June 08, 2018 at 01:17 PM
Five years out of Phoenix. You'd be amazed at how not living in a state run by kooks improves one's mental health....
Posted by: Diane DAngelo | June 08, 2018 at 05:41 PM
The next bust is coming and the knives are out. Jesus will not get in the middle of that.
Posted by: Jerry McKenzie | June 08, 2018 at 09:44 PM
Sharing mo longer exists in a huge number of peoples vocabulary.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 08, 2018 at 11:10 PM
Being Christian myself does not exempt me from caring about others; indeed, it is what Jesus teaches us as intrinsic to being Christian. I strongly feel this "caring behavior" has been jettisoned by many Evangelicals (whom I term "evengreediers") in their lust for money and power.
It is this lust for capitalism's baubles that makes people of all faiths and political persuasions unwilling to not only share, but to consider the coming day of reckoning from global warming. Truly believing in global warming will necessarily require sharing with the less fortunate, but also require the most painful step of reining in the new "American Dream" of overconsumption.
I can guarantee you the powerholders in Arizona would rather become Socialists than give up any part of their "Rock and Roll Lifestyle (all apologies to the band Cake)."
It is this addiction to Capitalism and overconsumption that morphs into an "ugly Americanism" that marginalizes even considering global warming--or its ramifications, much less the less fortunate who will feel global warming's most negative impacts.
As Bette Midler sang, "God is watching us from a distance."
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 09, 2018 at 08:45 AM
Jerry, I would be interested if you would expand a bit more on the statement you posted.
Bradley, one has to wonder why the god worshipped by evangelicals is so darn focused on money, sex and imposing their way on others.
To James above, I would propose that the "good times" or "bad times" of Arizona's future depends on Mother Narture's delivery of H2O.
Posted by: Ruben | June 09, 2018 at 09:32 AM
Ruben.
Evangelista leaders are gods!
"And he rammed the fear of (his) God into her behind the altar."
Elmer G
Not to fear Earth doesn't go dark for at least 4 billion more years. Humans much sooner.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 09, 2018 at 12:29 PM
Har U go Rube.
Billionaire tent evangelists
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/are-evangelical-leaders-saving-scott-pruitts-job?mbid=nl_Daily%20060918&CNDID=48614199&spMailingID=13664481&spUserID=MTc5Mjg4MTEyMTI0S0&spJobID=1420821004&spReportId=MTQyMDgyMTAwNAS2
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 09, 2018 at 02:09 PM
Ruben, you asked this question: "One has to wonder why the god worshipped by evangelicals is so darn focused on money, sex and imposing their way on others."
I'm guessing that somewhere along the line the "evengreediers" lost their way. That "losing their way" was likely straying from Jesus Christ's teachings of goodwill, accepting people as they were (warts and all), and being, in thoughts and actions, good to those who "deviated" from what those earlier evangelicals believed. I'm also convinced that many of those earlier evangelicals "control" impulses were informed by their forebears' control of slaves. That and their own "white privilege" entitlement experiences that the control of the Jim Crow era which allowed them to enjoy their "freedom and liberty" on the backs of the oppressed Blacks.
This white majoritarian, divinely-blessed, "manifest destiny" colored (pun intended) many of those evangelicals attitudes about being morally correct in their faith to a mentality of being (remember the Moral Majority?) sent by their God to control all that which they defined as religiously aberrant.
This was all done under the aegis of In God We Trust," with the "Under God" part of the Pledge of Allegiance being a poke at "Godless Communism" in 1954 being no accident at the time of Brown vs. Board of Education. This "Godless Commie Pinko" was a common epithet directed at those the "silent majority" had political differences with.
Abortion, LGBTQ rights, marijuana prescriptions for pain, the Islamic faith, the NFL "kneelers" protesting police terrorism in Black communities, those advocating global warming, etcetera, are all seen as both "ungodly" and "un-American" by these current "ugly americans."
Because they want "freedom and liberty" for only themselves (as the "righteous") the current "evengreediers" agenda bases this "control" of those they differ with and despise on the mantle of "saving Western civilization" from these "mongrel hordes."
That God would want humans to have complete freedom to both make their way and determine their ultimate fate is waaaaay over the heads of these 21st century storm-troopers. As is the idea that freedom and liberty are only valid in their absolute state of everyone having access to and enjoying them.
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 10, 2018 at 10:16 AM
Ruben, I guess, in short, my motto is "live and let live."
I see myself as diametrically opposed to the evangelical/evengreediers. who, I fervently believe, seek to control that which lives in a manner they disagree with, despise, and they want to dominate with dogmatic decrees.
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 10, 2018 at 01:36 PM
Thanks for information about distressed Zip Codes. I remember when downtown Phoenix was the center for National Corporate headquarters (at one time there were 5, including Dial) and the Valley's financial center and legal center Not a title trust bldg or corporate headquarters left You can't find educated or even literate workers in Phoenix. Unregulated immigration, investment in sports arenas and the metro rail have ruined Phoenix. The metro rail has flooded Phoenix neighborhoods with the homeless and brought in cdrime and drugs. How is the religious ranting posted here relevant to anything? Phoenix is not a redneck city Bradley Dranka. Half the city council is Hispanic and they all received election funding from LGBT community and Planned Parenthood.Who are these white racists running Phoenix. Let's hear names.
Posted by: Patricia Dilgard | June 12, 2018 at 04:08 AM
Pat, I didnt read "Phoenix is ran by racists" just Arizona.
and IMHO organized religion is the enemy!
And thank you for your services as a Phoenix Librarian.
Keep reading and writing
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 12, 2018 at 10:41 AM
Arizona is the Mecca for rednecks and Phoenix is its capital. The state legislature passes budgets embracing illiteracy so it is no surprise the workforce is illiterate. The metro rail is too lacking in reach to significantly effect metro Phoenix. Unregulated migration into Phoenix from Midwest small towns and suburbs is a corrosive factor on the quality of life in Phoenix. Phoenix jumped from a small town to Sprawl City without every having a significant downtown except in the faulty memories of aging Phonecians.
Phoenix IS a redneck city Bradley Dranka and being a redneck is as much a state of mind as it is a particular skin color.
Posted by: ANON | June 12, 2018 at 11:47 AM
well said ANON
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 12, 2018 at 12:12 PM
For all the evengreedier "evangelicals,"
"From A Distance"
From a distance the world looks blue and green
And the snow capped mountains white
From a distance the ocean meets the stream
And the eagle takes to flight
From a distance, there is harmony
And it echoes through the land
It's the voice of hope, it's the voice of peace
It's the voice of every man
From a distance we all have enough
And no one is in need
And there are no guns, no bombs, and no disease
No hungry mouths to feed
From a distance we are instruments
Marching in a common band
Playing songs of hope, playing songs of peace
They're the songs of every man
God is watching us, God is watching us
God is watching us from a distance
From a distance you look like my friend
Even though we are at war
From a distance I just cannot comprehend
What all this fighting is for
From a distance there is harmony
And it echoes through the land
And it's the hope of hopes, it's the love of loves
It's the heart of every man
(Every man)
It's the hope of hopes, it's the love of loves
This is the song of every man
And God is watching us, God is watching us
God is watching us from a distance
Oh, God is watching us, God is watching
God is watching us from a distance
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 12, 2018 at 04:28 PM
Patricia Dilgard, the white racists are the Republicans in the legislature who, in their sanctimonius "law and order" indignation, constantly hoop and holler about "lax" border controls as a smokescreen for their His-panoia.
This faux-righteous, far-right, rabble-rousing is designed to give those in their base a "feel-good" pill to allay their guilt over employing these "illegals" in their yards, restaurants (cooks, servers, buspeople), construction workers, and as drug providers.
It's simple: the Anglos create the demand, and the "illegals" fill that demand for low-wage workers and drug providers.
Look in the mirror because we "uhhhmuhhriKKKuhns" are a BIG part of this problem.
And God is watching from a distance.
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 12, 2018 at 06:16 PM
The psycho con man and the evil theocrat,
the most dangerous duo in World History!
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-young-pence-southern-baptist-convention_us_5b227acce4b0bbb7a0e55579
and for my birthday
https://www.amazon.com/Already-Know-About-Your-Religion/dp/B01MZXC99Q/ref=sr_1_75?ie=UTF8&qid=1529009034&sr=8-75&keywords=atheist+necklace
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 14, 2018 at 02:10 PM
Now AG Sessions is using the King James book of myth and fairy tales concocted by early LSD users to conduct government business.
The "christian?" crusades never ended. They are still slaughtering!
And subjecting innocent children to Dante's Inferno on the SW border.
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 15, 2018 at 08:40 AM
And Patricia asks " how is all this religious ranting relevant ".
Hell, there's a full scale assault on our government by these brain washed "ians " . I can't put Christ in their name because they do and worship everything opposite of what Christ taught.
It's a battle that is relevant as hell.
Posted by: Ruben | June 15, 2018 at 10:57 AM
God may be watching from a distance, but one thing for sure is that if It is, it is shaking its head at your hysteria. . and possibly mumbling, "oh my Jesus, what have I wrought?"
Posted by: terry dudas | June 15, 2018 at 03:46 PM
If watching your country being raped by a gang of traitorous, holier than thou, grifters doesn't engender something resembling "hysteria" in you, perhaps you are part of the problem...
Posted by: B. Franklin | June 15, 2018 at 06:01 PM
“God May be Watching from a distance” Your god is reportedly all encompassing so that makes distance non-existent.
Religion (Pence the Theocrat) basically is Authoritarianism. I see no difference between Trump and the following rulers for life.
https://freedomhouse.org/report/modern-authoritarianism-origins-anatomy-outlook
and a little 1984
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=dYWL%2fcXg&id=4E05B2BF2FE7EC45662F2E6E7ECBC06136727EFB&thid=OIP.dYWL_cXg0DAncStskm6SDAHaEs&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fcommonsense4worldequality.files.wordpress.com%2f2015%2f06%2ftotalitarianism.jpg&exph=380&expw=600&q=modern+authoritarianism+symbols&simid=608008595143461920&selectedIndex=0&ajaxhist=0
and just for the dude
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=nanci+griffith+sings+god+is+watching+from+a+distance&view=detail&mid=AF613143661FA7016F63AF613143661FA7016F63&FORM=VIRE
Posted by: Cal Lash | June 15, 2018 at 09:57 PM
terri dudas, your insulting and rote conservative rhetoric contains nothing that contradicts or rebuts anything I've said.
This is because the God I believe in is about love and compassion--and wants us humans to allow other humans freedom--and NOT to use our freedoms to control others. I believe allowing others the same freedoms we enjoy is the most comparable act of governmental "love" to the love God and Jesus Christ have for us. I also believe that other religions may have the same manifestation of our God in their supreme being.
But I suspect, ms. dudas, that God is watching the evangelical evengreediers and shaking its head at their earthly temptation-driven control agenda--and God's head is SPINNING....
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 16, 2018 at 10:04 AM
ms. dudas, One other thing: If, as I truly believe, that complete democracy--with equal and unassailable freedom for everyone--is the closest thing to God's love for us, and I see the evengreedier evangelicals and trump as a "clear and present" danger to that democracy, how am I displaying "hysteria???"
Please explain to me your reasoning, ms. dudas. I'm sure it's fascinating....
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 16, 2018 at 10:12 AM
cal, I think the "watching from a distance" is a metaphor for the idea that God will not interfere in humans making their own destiny--as in the global warming going on. It's also part and parcel of the "freedom" God wants us to have to determine our own spiritual fate, and why I believe democracy for everyone--and not the select few--is truly in line with God's wishes for us.
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 16, 2018 at 10:39 AM
B. Franklin, Anyone who isn't "hysterically perturbed" at the active and ongoing campaign to limit personal freedom for the many probably agrees with the premise that freedom ISN'T for everyone. These people do not support democracy.
This idea of limiting freedoms is very easily expanded to authoritarianism, totalitarianism, and monarchy/dictatorship, with the despising and hatred of "difference," be it political, sexual, lifestyle, sprituality, etcetera, being its combustible fuel.
More often than not, those supporting trump agree with his bullying, racist, disrespectful, boorish, and intentionally undiplomatic 21st century "ugly American" mindset and rhetoric.
The 2018 midterms will likely tell us clearly who the patriots and "trait-riots" are. One not be a supporter of those wishing to undermine our democracy to be traitorous. They need only be sympathetic to the idea that freedom is not for everyone.
If we patriots don't get this one right, with a stiff rebuke of trump and his plutocratic posse, we will get it "good and hard." And that damage may be the start of an irreversible destruction of American democracy.
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 17, 2018 at 07:39 AM
There is a story about the FBI agents being excoriated in last week's Inspector General's report that deals with e-mails between FBI agents who didn't like trump that is relevant to the points I've made.
Maybe this "resistance" to trump in the FBI had A LITTLE SOMETHING TO DO with what those FBI agents, who know more about "subversives" than you or I do, saw as a potential subversive despot who they likely knew had made contact with the Russians and how he likely wanted freedom for only his political persuasion. Thus, "Benedict Donald" was a potential threat in their eyes to the American ideal of liberty, democracy, and freedom for everyone.
In fact, doesn't that appear to be happening now? What with trump calling a free press the greatest threat to democracy?
The problem with trump, his canonizing coterie, and his worshipping political storm-troopers is that they refuse to acknowledge that this "deep state" exists because it is the ONE price we pay for the STABILITY and PREDICTABILITY of our nation. Part of that "deep state" is that it will likely protect itself if it feels threatened.
Another problem with the "my way or the highway" mantra of the trump supporters is their aversion to taxes, when it is TAXES that pay for not only the "deep state," but all of the other things that make our society as smoothly functioning as it is.
When one lives in a world where everything one doesn't like is "fake news" substituted with "alternative facts," is it any wonder that those dealing in this "gibberish" would think the "deep state" can be suddenly replaced with something "better" that they feel someone other than themselves should pay for?
This is the kind of "rationalizing" one gets in the trump echo chamber.
And it is why the stakes are so high this November, because the only thing trump and his followers understand is total iron-willed determination.
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 17, 2018 at 12:23 PM
I am correcting my statement of, "What with trump calling a free press the greatest threat to democracy?" I misspoke there; trump never said that.
That said, I do believe trump views the free press as the greatest threat to him and his bullying vision of "America First" ugly Americanism where every other nation (and dissenting group in America) must kow-tow and bow down to his brand of nationalism.
Does this echo Adolf Hitler's Deutschland Uber Alles motto?
Posted by: Bradley Dranka | June 17, 2018 at 01:08 PM