Distressed Arizona

It's tough all over. Well, not really.

In the latest Distressed Communities report, which digs down to the ZIP Code level nationally, Gilbert ranks as the least distressed among America's 100 largest cities. It has zero distressed ZIP codes and 99 percent of them are considered "prosperous." The report, by the Economic Innovation Group, considers seven metrics to rank areas "distressed," "at risk," mid-tier," "comfortable," and "prosperous." It's become one of the gold-standard reports as America struggles with sharply different economic and social outcomes.

Chandler also did very well, No. 4 nationally, with zero distressed and 65 percent prosperous ZIP codes. Scottsdale ranked No. 10, again with zero distressed and 61 percent prosperous. These showings are no mystery. All three jurisdictions are overwhelmingly higher-income Anglos, along with the preponderance of the state's high-end economic assets. (Someone once sniffed that he lived in south Chandler, as if this would impress me. My Chandler is circa 1977 and south Chandler is alfalfa fields.). Scottsdale has plenty of extremely rich retirees and part-year residents. Gilbert, and to a lesser extent Chandler, also benefits from the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Yet Tucson ranks a shocking 91 out of 100. Nearly 59 percent of the city's ZIP codes are distressed and less than 8 percent are prosperous. This is the kind of calamity more likely seen in famously troubled places — and indeed the other bottom 10 include Detroit, Buffalo, and Newark. 

Tucson lacks rusting steel mills and deindustrialization. But it does share something with many other distressed cities: poor minorities separated far from most of their affluent fellow citizens. For example, 85714, which is south of Ajo Way (below South Tucson), turns in 40 percent of the population with no high-school diploma, vs. 13 percent nationally. More than 41 percent of the adults are not working (28 percent nationally), 36 poverty rate (16 percent nationally), and 50 percent of the national income median. The ZIP Code is more than 92 percent minority (Hispanic).

Although 85714 is the most severe example, Tucson has plenty of these ZIPs.

In addition to highly concentrated poverty and poorly funded schools, Tucson suffers from one of the worst metropolitan economies in the United States. Last year, jobs barely increased and bankruptcies rose. At $39,541 in 2016, Tucson's per-capita personal income trailed metro Phoenix by nearly $2,700. But that's not fair because Phoenix is so much larger. Salt Lake City, which is about the same size metro as Tucson, leaves both Tucson and Phoenix behind, at $46,023.

Interestingly, both Tucson and Salt Lake were nearly identical in PCPI until the mid-1990s. Then Salt Lake began to pull ahead, investing in a high-tech economy and a regional rail transit system. And, of course, this advantage was pressed to the maximum by the Mormons, who wanted the best for their church headquarters. Salt Lake City came in No. 10 in the influential Milken Institute Best-Performing Cities report. Tucson dragged in at 154. Phoenix was 40.

It wasn't supposed to work out like this. In the 1970s, Tucson was a college city, add in the Southern Pacific Railroad and Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, with an incredibly rich history and enchanting setting. Go back before statehood and it was the most important city in the territory — one reason Phoenix wound up with the capital was a compromise between the two rich population centers of Prescott and Tucson. But let's linger in the 1970s, population 263,000, reliably Democrat, smart and progressive (and hometown of Linda Ronstadt). Not only that, but the University of Arizona was making its run at becoming a major research university, as the University of Texas had done. Why didn't Tucson become a Portland or an Austin, if not a Salt Lake City?

First, the UA was savaged by decades of budget cuts and outsmarted at the Legislature by ASU. Second, as Arizona doubled-down on "growth" as its primary economic project, metro Phoenix got all the toys, such as there were to be had. An increasingly reactionary state government did little to encourage the environment that would have let Tucson, or even Phoenix, catch the headwaters of the technology economy. Tucson and Pima County inflicted their own wounds, from terrible sprawl to the repeated failure to build light rail. Tucson's most influential businessman was a car dealer (Jim Click). While Tucson has a few big employers, such as Raytheon, as UA has done some tech transfer to startups, they aren't enough. Now the metro area has attracted large numbers of Big Sort right-wingers to the fringes — and they vote.

Arizona shouldn't be smug, despite the East Valley showing. Mesa ranked 41st and Glendale 82nd. The city of Phoenix came in 76 out of 100 (Austin 9; Denver 19; Portland 17, and Seattle 7). The city had more than 36 percent of its ZIP codes in the distressed category, only 19 percent prosperous.

The state as a whole had more than 24 percent of its population living in distressed areas, above the national average. More than half of Americans in distressed ZIP codes live in the South, so rock on GOP policies. One thing Arizona shows is that those same policies allow for comfortable geographic separation. So don't expect Gilbert to rise up to help Tucson.

 

  

 

Comments

[soleri]

I was in Tucson a couple of weeks ago and reacted with a mixture of disgust and curiosity to its could-be-anywhere suburban character. Central Tucson still has some decent charm, however, and there is a significant housing boom in downtown. Even its failed La Placita Village (a kind of Mercado project from the early '70s) being razed for a big apartment complex. But the main action is the craptacular sprawl on the far northern and southern edges of town. I loved Tucson intensely 40-some years ago but left knowing its magic had a sell-by date. The only thing I got wrong was just how awful it would be.

As with so many mid-tier cities, Tucson's identity has suffered as its key local assets have either been absorbed by national entities or faded into irrelevance. Like El Paso, Tucson has had significant population growth while also seeming less consequential as a city. Some of this relates to the declining importance of old extraction industries in the economy. Some of it is an immigration surge from Mexico where construction or landscaping labor dominates. They might actually make decent money but if it's off the books, it won't necessarily be visible.

The university/downtown area may serve as a life preserver for the city given the wretched sprawl on the periphery. Traffic is horrendous with no solution in sight. The socioeconomic segregation almost feels like the kind one used to see in Latin America where a huge underclass coexists with a smaller middle class. The political paralysis prevents any kind of systemic effort to mainstream distressed populations. Tucson still seems sleepy in some respects but the magic, such as it was, has disappeared. One of the sadder things here is that the desert is gradually losing its majestic forest of saguaros, due at least in part to climate change. If Ed Abbey's ghost is hovering over this ruined paradise, he must be weeping.

[Cal Lash]

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.”
― Edward Abbey, The Journey Home: Some Words in Defense of the American West

[Cal Lash]

"Humans build their societies around consumption of fossil water long buried in the earth, and these societies, being based on temporary resources, face the problem of being temporary themselves".
Charles Bowden

[AzReb]

"I'm thirsty, let's go to Colorado."

Anonymous Hohokam
1000 A.D.

[Kevin in Preskitt]

Could Tucson's poor showing be due to the fact that most of the metro area's well-off live north of River Road, outside Tucson city limits?

[Rowdy]

Ya'll spend a whole bunch of yer time with yer heads in the clouds. Dang, if'n ya went back 30,000 years you'd find homosapiens living in fine looking caves an Neanderthals living off near them mammoth dung piles. Just what it is. Life ain't fare. Hell, I spect ya'll think tracks was made for trains. Nope. Tracks was made for some folks to live on the good side and nother folks to live on the other side. Just how it is. Some fellar said it's in our DNA. Whatever, the hell that means. You dogooders, you keep on trying though. It keeps you out of the saloons where us regular folk is just trying to relax and have a good time. See you on down the trail. Distressed Zip codes. Dang if that don't beat all

[soleri]

Dang, if'n ya went back 30,000 years you'd find homosapiens living in fine looking caves an Neanderthals living off near them mammoth dung piles.

No wonder Donald Trump is president. Cracker-barrel philosophers deem all human progress to be a fraud because the wrong people get ideas and such. Fortunately, there's the internet to propagate their own "ideas". Say, burn it all down! We were much happier when we were stupid and certain.

[Cal Lash]

Was Rowdy that drunk on Gunsmoke?

[drifter]

Rowdy is a fake redneck.

[soleri]

Rowdy is a sock puppet trolling this blog for some unfathomable reason.

[john tally]

Rowdy ain't no fake redneck. She's my neighbor in the single-wide park down by the fertilizer plant.

[B. Franklin]

That sounds about right.

[Ramjet]

Perhaps it is just AZreb or Helen Highwater screwing with you all.

[Mrs. Rowdy Yates , widow]

Hey John. Was that you peeking in my winder the other night? Hope you enjoyed the show. Much abliged fer sticking up fer me.

[phxSUNSfan]

It's been over a year since I have visited Phoenix. I am amazed by the changes and the amount of construction going on downtown! Downtown is still no match for my new hometown of Boston but the changes are encouraging. What I will say about east coast cities is that each is unique and amazing. Even Providence, RI, a city of 190,000 has a downtown that easily competes with Phoenix, for now. It helps that Providence is home to several universities including Brown, an Ivy League school. Providence also has a density that surpasses Seattle with nearly 10,000 per square mile. I can take a train from Boston to several unique cities in New England like Providence. I do have to say, living in New England is more challenging than Phoenix. It's extremely expensive, very cold, hard to get around even on foot due to weather, the street grid and the compactness of the varying cityscapes. With that being said, I want to be in Boston permanently and visit Phoenix as much as possible.

[soleri]

I took an East Coast trip via Acela from Boston to Washington over a decade ago. The train was ridiculously slow but it was a great way to see some wonderful cities, including Providence. Congratulations to phxSUNSfan for his new Boston home. The weather is a challenge but it is spectacular in ways newer cities can't possibly match. Paradoxically, it's a very young city on its sidewalks from all the students living there. The architecture, history, museums, and universities put Boston on a level no other American city can match. I doubt Phoenix will ever compete in its league - how could it? - but if it evolves a denser core, good things will result.

[phxSUNSfan]

Acela travel times really haven't imported over the last decade. It takes 3 hrs and 30 min to travel between Boston and NYC. It is nearly faster to drive during no peak hours. I would love true high speed rail between Boston and NYC.

[Rogue Columnist]

If Trump doesn't totally screw the pooch, Amtrak schedules will improve. Plus, on the train you can read, work, rest, converse. It's the sane way to travel. I always take the Amtrak Cascades when I go to Portland. Would never take the madness of I-5.

[drifter]

Japanese Bullet Trains are fabulous. The interconnected subway, train and bus system makes for a great country to live in. Heads above anything in the USA.

[Thomas]

I love your comment about the south Chandler sniff. Those losers are so common now in that part of Chandler. I think half of them aren't even native Arizonians, probably losers who couldn't even cut it out in California then come crawling here complaining that they couldn't stand the liberal politics of their old state that's causing it to decline into Mexico or some other racially biased comment. As if we're buying that excuse.

Those kinds of people look down at "North Chandler" as if it's some kind of slum or a slum of the future, which to be honest isn't too far off. I think they're sitting on a high horse because they think they're living in an area immune from that (I hope that it's not - for my own amusement) and that somehow that makes them better. Typically elitist snobbery you'd find in a place like North Scottsdale, except the people there are usually wealthy. The types in "South" Chandler are people who wish they could afford to live like someone in North Scottsdale.

I'm glad to find out that I'm not the only one who has experienced the "South" Chandler stupidity. I thought it was all in my head.

Would love to hear more from you about what you think about people like that, John. And also Chandler as a whole. I wouldn't mind more Chandler articles.