'Smart city'

I see that the local-yokel boosters bamboozled Popular Mechanics into doing a story claiming that Bill Gates wants to build a "smart city" in the Phoenix exurbs. This lacks any corroborating evidence, any skeptical journalism. It is, as the old newsroom joke goes, a story too good to check. What we do know is that Gates' investment arm plinked down $80 million for a stake in the speculative "master planned community" called Belmont. The promoters want to built 80,000 tract houses, along with industrial, office, and retail space.

The whole thing strikes me as dodgy. Water availability, especially in the long-term, is one of the two biggest issues facing Phoenix. A game of musical chairs is being played thanks to the complexity and opaqueness of Arizona's water law and enforcement. But the outlook is not good. The metro area and state are past population overshoot, especially for the one-trick-pony of building single-family detached tract houses in an ever-widening footprint of sprawl. The other unpleasant reality is climate change, which bodes very ill for the state. More sprawl destroys the unique, lovely Sonoran Desert.

The ghost of Ned Warren is looking on the spectacle of taking $80 million in Bill Gates' chump change with envy. As I wrote in a Seattle Times column, being one of the world's cleverest men in one field — bringing enormous riches — does not make you smart in everything else. Maybe he'll make a quick buck if the project is ever built. The suckers left holding the bag won't be so fortunate.

Similar sad hilarity came from a New York Times Magazine piece about Doug Ducey making Arizona the capital of self-driving cars. No regulations, come on down! The problem is that the companies will neither have their well-paid design and engineering jobs nor make the vehicles here. They will merely use our abundant freeways and wide streets to experiment. What could go wrong? 

Self-driving cars are another manifestation of our delusion with techno-magic. And anything, anything, to keep Happy Motoring going. In reality, we need fewer cars, way fewer. Most red-blooded Americans want to drive their own cars, thanks very much. And the growing ranks of the impoverished classes, especially in Phoenix, won't be buying self-driving cars or Teslas. 

The real 'smart cities' are in the heart of real cities: walkable, convenient, with creative friction playing out as advanced companies are located close to each other. The sustainable and sane future is Amazon's innovation district in Seattle, not office "parks" on freeways. Fringe projects are extremely inefficient, requiring new infrastructure — and in Arizona this means always playing catch-up but never catching up, because impact fees are usually nonexistent, tiny when applied. Sprawl has been Phoenix's worst enemy, from competitiveness and environmental protection to civic health.

It's worth noting that Gates located the headquarters of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in Seattle's core, right across from the Space Needle, not out in the fringes. If he were starting Microsoft today, it wouldn't go in Redmond — hot talent wants cities, not suburbs. And Gates lives in a state that benefits from urban growth boundaries.

I'm old enough to remember when Phoenix saw itself as "the city of the future" — car-based, spread out, everything built around the automobile and speeding from one place to another. It proved disastrous. The cities that are prospering today — the ones most in serious contention for Amazon HQ2 — are dense, with great urban bones and assets, top universities, rail-transit systems and overflowing with high-skilled talent. In other words, the anti-Phoenixes.

Phoenix's only sustainable future is smaller, focused in the Salt River Project, with investments in an abundant shade canopy and quality density. The local-yokels who see the future in fringe development are just trying to sell something. And like Ned Warren, they'll have money in the bank when the roof falls in.

 

 

Comments

[NormW]

From what I can gather, the land parcel in question is to the west of the White Tank Mountains, adjacent to the proposed I-11 route and the fabled Sun Valley Parkway. Am I correct in remembering that there wasn't a lot of water in the Hassayampa aquifer which led to... no development in the area?

[Bradley Dranka]

In a Republican state, where capitalism is much, much more the true religion than anything based on Christ, making money in an immoral fashion is the accepted form of worship. Also, denying climate change by just "sucking it up" and "manning up" is very preferable than having to admit you're the butt of the global warming "joke" the capitalists have played on you. And realizing Phoenix's time has come--and is rapidly going--surely is not something the power-brokers in Arizona want the public to get a whiff of.

[Rogue Columnist]

You are correct, Norm. The Hassayampa is small and oversubscribed, and the underlying aquifer quite limited — and remember, AZ is supposed to stop pumping ground water.

[100 Octane]

"In reality, we need fewer cars, way fewer. Most red-blooded Americans want to drive their own cars, thanks very much"...Both true and ironic.

The Gates deal sounds like a tax angle, perhaps they need to park 80 million somewhere for a while. I don't know. But for the lack of water not being discussed as part of the "planned community" is a wonder.

[Bradley Dranka]

100 Octane, I'm curious...has potential lack of water, whether current or future, ever been discussed regarding "planned communities." I've never heard of it being a consideration in Arizona.

[Jeffie Trapp]

"Once a man drinks from the waters of the Hassayampa, he can never tell the truth again."

[Steve Weiss]

Since I heard this would be in the area around Tonapah, I had figured there was a geothermal component to the concept.

[Rob Spindler]

A weak defense of Gates' plan suggests that a smart city is one where residential and commercial building environment, traffic and food and water consumption is centrally controlled to enable efficiency and sustainability in the desert. I tend to think *when* that goes wrong it will *really* go wrong, but we should be experimenting with those things. The specific location and scale of this project is probably not appropriate, I assume its' outside the corridors where 100 year groundwater supply is required by AZ law.

I can relate to Rogue's comparison to the self-driving cars. Last weekend LD 18 rep Mitzi Epstein (D) called for comments on Facebook about the cars. I got trolled by four people when I suggested public safety and jobs might be at risk and asked "Is This a Good Thing?" I didn't know I am a buggy whip proponent. The lack of thoughtful discourse around new technology is concerning.

[Ramjet]

Trump must have had some Hassayampa water.
Old Ned Warren. I love to tell the story of how I "scammed" Ned and lived to tell about. LOL

[Jerry]

Nice quote Jeffie! And do tell Ramjet...

[Joe]

If the scarcity of water is priced appropriately the demand for water will adjust appropriately. Large lawns, golf courses, municipal parks and pools may become a lot more expensive. However, xeriscaping will become more popular.

Self-driving cars will not be owned by individuals and sit idle for 90% of the time. They will be dispatched from central storage facilities using apps like Uber and Lyft. The price of using self driving cars will decrease dramatically as economies of scale are realized through more efficient car utilization, cheaper insurance, bulk maintenance and a more efficient driving style.

Solar energy continues to become more productive. There's no lack of sunlight in the desert!

[Phil]

Question: Who wants to move out into the sticks? And, if there is anyone, who goes first? The residents or the jobs? What do the developers construe as the demand driver? After the Great Recession of 2007 to 2015 (polite term for "The Last Depression"), the real estate that was clobbered the hardest, lost the most value and took longest to come back to life was in nearby Buckeye. What's smart about Belmont?

[Cal Lash]

Not sure what was on Gates mind but maybe he has to much leisure time and has been reading up on Sun and Sand.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrakis

[Cal Lash]

DUMB CITY!!!
http://www.hcn.org/articles/fish-and-wildlife-service-retracts-its-concerns-about-a-massive-arizona-housing-proposal?utm_source=wcn1&utm_medium=email

[Cal Lash]

Maybe Bill has been talking to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
The grandiose Future Investment Initiative, held in Riyadh on October 24-26, was meant to symbolize the transformation afoot in Saudi Arabia to the thousands of business and political leaders from across the world who attended to hear the plans for a new “robot city”—complete with gimmicks like offering Saudi citizenship to a robot.

[Rob Spindler]

https://slate.com/business/2017/11/bill-gates-smart-city-in-arizona-is-not-smart-not-a-city-and-has-almost-nothing-to-do-with-bill-gates.html

[Jon7190]

On the subject of autonomous cars, Car and Driver's November issue has the bulk of the issue on a section examining the current state of self driving cars. It is edited by Malcolm Gladwell, who surprisingly to me, is actually a car guy. Very in depth and thoughtful look at the possible futures of the automobile.

[Jon7190]

Cal Lash wrote "The grandiose Future Investment Initiative, held in Riyadh on October 24-26, was meant to symbolize the transformation afoot in Saudi Arabia to the thousands of business and political leaders from across the world who attended to hear the plans for a new “robot city”—complete with gimmicks like offering Saudi citizenship to a robot."

When I read that, an image popped in my head of a Jetsons style robot with a red and white checkered head scarf.

[John Cote]

A belated post, but I just have to add - Bill Gates genius is not technical prowess, others did it better but his lawyers silenced them. His real forte is turning a product already legally purchased into a perpetual annuity. A Bill Gates "Smart City" is a true nightmare. 4 years after purchasing a home you will get a notice that Belmont 101 will no longer be supported. You will need to either buy Belmont 202 or subscribe to Belmont 365 for an annual fee. What could go wrong if you don't? The automated school bus might pass your kids buy and the automated trash truck might pick them up and send them to the dump. AND, Russian hackers might open your garage door and take your self driving Mercedes to the nearest seaport for shipment to Vladivostok!

[Karen Pallin]

I believe you (all above) may be wrong. History will have the last laugh.