Transition

Illustration by Carl Muecke.

In the near future, I will examine the Obama presidency. But one thing is certain: For the past eight years, I have slept well knowing this fine, scandal-free man was in the White House. No Drama Obama. History will be very kind to him. He may well be remembered as the last president of the United States.

Now we're headed into an ominous "experiment."

Donald Trump enters the White House with less legitimacy than any president in history. His opponent, Hillary Clinton, won the popular vote by the largest margin ever (tying Obama in 2012). Trump's approval rating is the lowest for an incoming chief executive in history. His Electoral College victory will forever be tainted by the tilting of the election in his favor by Russian intelligence, FBI Director James Comey, and media malpractice — manically overplaying fake Clinton scandals while downplaying or ignoring Trump's massive real scandals and conflicts of interest. And never forget voter suppression. This was the first presidential election after the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act.

Nevertheless, Trump and the Republicans are claiming a mandate to undertake a massive shift in our nation's life and trajectory. Taking health care away from 30 million Americans — at least half of whom are in the vaunted white working class — is Job No. 1. But the damage won't stop there.

The Republicans are hot to cut taxes on the rich and eviscerate "entitlements" (read the earned benefits of Social Security and Medicare). To roll back regulations protecting the environment and holding back the looting from anti-competitive mergers, too big to fail banks, and the oligarchs. The latter, along with a proto-junta of generals, stuff his cabinet nominees. If we only see America turned into a banana republic kleptocracy, we'll be lucky.

But we won't be that lucky. If you voted for Trump, or Jill Stein or Gary Johnson, or wrote in Bernie, you voted to kill the planet. Under Obama, concrete steps were finally being taken to address climate change. These will not only be eliminated, but an orgy of carbon extraction and burning will be undertaken. Trump's pick for Secretary of State is the former CEO of Exxon Mobile, which worked for years to spread denier propaganda. I never want to hear some right-winger talk about the effect of the national debt on their grandchildren. Those spawn will be living on a planet out of a science-fiction nightmare because of our selfish short-sightedness led by the Republican Party. Not least among the consequences will be massive migration. Brown people are coming.

On a lesser level, want to go back to a country before the Clean Air and Clean Water acts — signed by that commie Dick Nixon? Without an Environmental Protection Agency or OSHA with power? With the public lands sold off or "returned to the states" (to which they never belonged)? To see our infrastructure become even more backward? We're about to find out. The Republicans have total power in Washington. They are on the verge of having control of enough state legislatures to be able to ram through constitutional amendments.

I don't want to hear about the inevitable progressive triumph because of the disasters total GOP control will bring. What makes you think 2018 or 2020 will be easier elections, in the "post-fact era," with a Trump-packed judiciary and Republican legislatures further eroding democracy? Minority rule by this white oligarchy could continue indefinitely. We must fight, of course. Resist. But Hillary Clinton won the election. And, no, Bernie couldn't have done better.

Ignorance is a touchstone of the new order that will begin in less than three weeks. The New Yorker has an apt cartoon. A man is standing in the aisle of an airliner. He says, "These smug pilots have lost touch with regular passengers like us. Who thinks I should fly the plane?" And many hands go up. We are living in the most complex era in history, and soon the planet's superpower will be led by a team of ignoramuses. They don't believe in science. Facts have a left-wing bias. Trump will have the nuclear codes, in the "football" carried by a military officer everywhere he goes.

Vidkun Quisling was the politician installed as head of the Norwegian puppet government by Hitler during World War II. After the country was liberated, the Norwegians put Quisling on trial and then before a firing squad. But his name entered the language as synonymous for traitor and stooge. Beyond Trump's loss of the popular vote, conflicts of interest, and other problems mentioned above, his biggest impediment to legitimacy is the help he received, indeed solicited, from Russia.

Regular readers here know that I opposed the expansion of NATO into the former Warsaw Pact countries and was not in a bother about Crimea or Syria. The former was part of the Russian empire for centuries and the latter a longstanding Russian ally. We're not the world's policeman. We can't fix everything. Russia has legitimate national interests. But the attack on the American election is something else again. It verges on an act of war. And Trump is covered in its stench. What does Putin (Robert Gates: "stone cold killer") have on Trump? What does he have on the Republican Party, which now so admires him. As I've written before, I am old enough to remember when Republicans constantly warned that the Democrats would surrender America to Russia. Projecting, much?

I wish I could offer some hope for the new year, but I can't truck in fake "positive thinking." Maybe the blue islands can host a resistance, but it will require more than protests against everything in the safe downtowns of cities such as Seattle.

Trump is the only individual to become president with no experience — none — in the serious endeavor of government. Even Zachary Taylor brought the discipline and knowledge of being a career Army officer, not some racketeering quisling. And Taylor's presidency was littered with missteps that hastened the coming of the Civil War. U.S. Grant was a fine general, a disaster of a president, betrayed by his corrupt party and administration — but, again, not a traitor or con man himself. And, again, in much simpler times.

The new president brings in tow a very dark movement. Some want to explain it away. It's not Hitler or Mussolini reborn! Maybe not. Of course, Hitler wasn't HITLER — until he was. No, this is our own special hell. Trump is not normal. Trump must not be normalized.

Today's president has much more power — commander in chief of the world's mightiest military and a far-reaching national security state — than ever imagined by the Constitution's framers. Trump is a serial liar, sociopath, narcissist, reality television star. He doesn't read books. He's a hothead. Maybe he'll be impeached, to be replaced by the garden variety reactionary-theocrat Mike Pence. Or taken out by the deep state or even a military coup. But the forces behind him, real Americans and the oligarchs, might not tolerate this. So, a Reichstag fire for America?

One thing is sure: This anti-Obama will face a fraught moment — facing Iran, North Korea, or even China. Maybe one of his own making. After all, when the Republican religion fails and the scandals mount, if blaming "liberals and mi-norities" isn't enough, there's always foreign adventure to distract the base.

Fun fact: With a smaller stockpile and less accurate missiles, China has our cities targeted with its nuclear missiles.

I am missing President Obama already.

 

 

Comments

[Bradley Dranka]

I have only one thing to say: "Stupid is as stupid does."

The working stiffs who voted for Trump admitted they didn't see things becoming better for them under Trump. They simply voted for something "different" without understanding (or caring to attempt to understand) what their vote for Trump portended. Change for change's sake without bothering to know the details.

As I said before, "Stupid is as stupid does."

And if they get a fifth columnist traitor, it's all the same in their small universe because these far-right reactionary pseudo-patriots prefer Russian totalitarianism to sharing power with the Democrats and liberals.

Ronald Reagan IS rolling over in his grave.

[Quija]

Trump will be impeachable on day 1 due to his numerous financial conflicts of interest and the Emoluments Clause. Ryan and company will refrain from instituting impeachment proceedings as long as Trump signs legislation implementing the Ryan Better Way proposal and all other right wing randian domestic programs to repeal the New Deal and Great Society safety nets. These repeals will be impossible to reverse for the foreseeable future as Republicans own the House of Representatives until at least 2030.

A lot of US military boots on the ground in Syria in 2017.

[Concern Troll]

NO boots on the ground, and the R party has already most likely agreed to keep a bunch of trump promises in exchange for some of their agenda.

The biggest danger for the R party is the Obamascare repeal and all of the medicare and social security rollbacks.

The base that put Trump in heard explicit promises not to roll it back, and yet the first thing a bunch of House dipshits are pushing is stuff that will hurt old folks.

That is the stupid part of the R party- cutting medicare and social security along with a Medical Insurance debacle will almost ensure a horrific midterm election and the possibility of losing the house.

Now, tight control of the agenda within the scope of the major Trump promises is the key to keeping any semblance of control for Paul Ryan, and McConnell is going to be a big problem for Ryan and Trump.

Pence is also the key, because so much that Trump promised is against his normal preferences.

How to reconcile the Trumpian promises with the normal Republican idiocy will be very interesting, if not nearly impossible.

If he does deliver a significant amount, the Dem party may have a long exile.

But it won't be the R fantasy of Pence, it will be Trump's projections.

[blaxabbath]

Immediately after the campaign we heard about #fakenews and how it was responsible for the election results. A month later I read a Tweet from Time Magazine (who I consider a reputable outfit) that read: "Millenials don't know what fabric softener is for" with a link to their story. The brief story, which is really about fabric softener sales being down, then attributes the headline to a quote by Shailesh Jejurikar, P&G’s Head of Global Fabric Care -- which is printed AFTER another quote by an industry exec saying that millennials don't like additives and are eco-conscious. To me, this followed the exact same format as their Trump coverage where they capitalize on false statements as headlines to lure readers (read: sell ads) and clarify/correct the headlining statement in the bottom of the article. Now, things may have changed since I took my first (and only) Intro to Journalism Course 20 years ago, but I though the most important stuff went in the first few paragraphs because that's as far as most readers will go. Seems like the place to point out that the headline is an opinion/lie -- or simply not list an opinion/lie as a headline.

I don't like to bash the news industry (not because they don't deserve plenty but I feel like one of those outsiders beating up on teachers when I've never been in the field) but I think their inconsistency as professionals is, to put it lightly, confusing. I think they put more effort into newsvertisements (remember the full page ads that look like articles but, you know, aren't?) or 'sponsored-content' than simply performing investigative journalism.

It's not the biggest problem we have but I think it's worth noting, considering how their slant to the truth and coverage will effect the future as much as it did this past election, that change is needed in the Fourth Estate as well.

*Note: This is no specific aim at Rogue, specifically, because I think he's focused on major/important truths and, generally, because he is a columnist rather than a reporter (at least in the capacity of this site).

[Stephen]

I supported Clinton. That is what makes this kind of article so alarming to me. The "Trump is a Russian agent" theory is the liberal equivalent of the Birther conspiracy theories of the last eight years. Coming from people I used to respect.

"But the attack on the American election is something else again. It verges on an act of war" - That is hyperbole. At worst they released a bunch of lame emails. The Clinton team lost the election. They knew like everyone else that the electoral college votes determine the winner. They now seem to be trying to start a war with Russia.

Yes Trump may be a disaster. But hiding behind kookey conspiracy theories is not going to help anyone.

Here are a couple of less hysterical articles:

http://www.ianwelsh.net/everything-cost-clinton-the-election/

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/michigan-hillary-clinton-trump-232547

[B. Franklin]

Trump isn't smart enough to be a Russian agent.

Russian stooge? Sure. Useful idiot? You bet! When a man has that many debts to that many foreign entities he is easily compromised.

Many of these people with post mortem theories about "how Clinton lost" (despite having almost 3 million more votes) overlook all of the uncounted votes in Detroit (see Greg Palast's work) and the success of Republican voter suppression in every swing state. So, add the Supreme Court's destruction of the Voting Right's Act to Comey and the Russian hackers as part of any analysis of how "bad" Clinton's campaign strategy was.

The good news is that all of the Red States will suffer just as much if not more than the Blue ones when the Party of Oligarchs starts dismantling Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the ACA, OSHA, the EPA, and any other progressive legislation they can get their hands on.

Remember, in general Red States take much more from the Federal government than they pay in. And there won't be nearly as much coming from the Feds as there has been in the past.

[Mike Doughty]

I have been waiting for the inauguration to pass judgement on Trump.I expect it will be very bad,but mostly I am disappointed in the voting public.While I sympathize with the feeling of frustration the Tea Party and their kind must feel,turning over the levers of power to Trump is absolutely stupid.We shall see,but I am glad I'm too old to serve in the army and wealthy enough not to rely on SS.

[Bradley Dranka]

My big problem with Trump is his dogged sticking to his positions with regard to Putin (i.e.: "the Russians had nothing to do with hacking the e-mails). Trump's admiration of "strong leaders" suggests he rather likes the methods of totalitarianism. It is also Trump's less-than-complete support for "freedom" that greatly unsettles me.

I really believe Trump sees himself as being at least semi-authoritarian--a strongman, if you will.

The difference between authoritarianism and totalitarianism is VERY small, indeed.

[Dan]

I know this is an odd thing to take away from your otherwise spot-on rant, but why do you consider U.S. Grant to be a terrible president? That seems ahistorical at best, especially for folks who aren't white. There seems to be a pesky narrative that he was a bad president or was somehow incompetent, but a more honest reading of history seems to say otherwise.

[Bradley Dranka]

Rogue Columnist,

The lack of expressed outrage by Republicans over Trump's embrace of Putin is beyond hypocritical--especially when these SAME Republicans have no problem proclaiming themselves as the "ultimate patriots."

But the lack of Democratic and liberal condemnation of this betrayal is almost as unsettling.

This last makes me more worried than the Republicans self-serving silence.

[Quija]

To "wipe out" ISIS as Trump puts it, air campaigns will likely be insufficient to do so. Given Trump's hawkish advisors and his erratic nature, US ground forces in Syria are a strong possibility in 2017.

The extreme gerrymandering of the House of Representatives back stopped with a right wing Trump Supreme Court makes Republican control of the House a lock even if Ryan's Better Way agenda of gutting Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid is implemented against the wishes of the majority of the electorate. The Freedom Caucus which was willing to crash the US credit rating to stop "runaway " deficits has no qualms in adding trillions to the federal deficit to further right wing ideology.

[Bradley Dranka]

On Republicans rolling back Obamacare: There is a complete LACK of details regarding THEIR alleged healthcare plan.

This just SCREAMS that Republicans have NO plan other than going back to the "everyone for themselves" that came before. This is allowing insurance and healthcare unlimited profits with little oversight--and the less healthy among us simply dying. Yes, I DO believe the Republicans' lack of concern for life is THAT cynical.

You see, there is a real and pervasive, Wild West, everyone for themselves streak within the Republican party that HATES the idea of helping the needy or less fortunate. The ONLY possible caveat to the aforementioned is these needy and less fortunate passing a political "litmus" test--which means agreeing with the Republican religion of "less government," and "working" for every little scrap you get. Profits and production reign supreme, with little thought given to quality of life, including universal healthcare, for the masses.

With a money man at the top, as any New Yorker would say, "It's ALL about the MONEY, baaabaay."

[Cal Lash]

Will king Donald turn Baron into Gold?

[teri dudas]

Bradley, before you stroke out, read Ben Carson's alternative plan. Betcha it will be the foundation for what's coming.

[Cal Lash]

That plan the won't work has been pushed by psychos since the 80's.

[Wendy Gray]

Stephen, this article is most assuredly NOT "hysterical," nor does it say "Trump is a Russian agent. It says, "Trump is a serial liar, sociopath, narcissist, reality television star. He doesn't read books. He's a hothead." Which he is. It also says that Republicans with an anti-social prigrams, anti-protecting the Earth, and pro-enriching the rich and powerful are now in power and in a strong position to get their way. That also is true. Everything else follows. Cause and effect is neither hysterical nor a liberal conspiracy.

[B. Franklin]

This is what a health care expert thinks about Ben Carson's health care plan:

"For a person who has serious health problems or for a person who has a low income, a $2,000 health care savings account is worthless, or near worthless" said Timothy Jost, professor of law at Washington and Lee University who specializes in health care regulation and law. "It would not either allow them to buy health insurance or allow them to afford health care or anything other than very routine primary care and some medications."

"I wouldn't mind the government giving me $2,000 for a health savings account because I have great health insurance from my employer," Jost added. "I'm sure if you are a doctor at Johns Hopkins, this is a great idea. You have $2,000 in your pocket. But if you are from the wrong side of Baltimore, it is not going to help very much. It is not going to help you get insurance and not cover more than basic primary care."

I guess for a Republican, though, it's that quality of being a boon for the rich and worthless for the rest of us that makes it good.

[Bradley Dranka]

Ms. Dudas,

Why don't you give me YOUR reference point for your glowing assessment of Carson's "alternative plan," instead of just cryptically referring to it.

At this, http://time.com/4143205/ben-carson-health-care-plan/, I found this...
On its surface, Carson’s plan repeats many of the conservative criticisms of Obama and his signature domestic achievement. But other than promising to dismantle Obamacare, Carson’s proposal lacks specificity. It’s unclear how, exactly, he would improve the delivery of health care, how his plan would keep costs down, or how those who cannot afford quality insurance would pay for medical treatment.
“By expanding HEAs and high-deductible insurance coverage, my plan returns money and decision-making where it belongs — into the hands of American patients and their doctors,” the conclusion of the plan reads.

As I said before, it seems like just a return to the "old system."

[Rogue Columnist]

The voucher is not Carson's idea but a hoary GOP "plan" from years ago. One ER visit would consume most or all of the $2,000.

[blaxabbath]

Well, the truth is that the optimal 'fix' to U.S. healthcare starts with a single-payer option. Since we know lobbyists will never let that happen (and the system will never reduce the lobbyists' influence -- see my earlier rants about the House Apportionment Act), any arguments about why the Democrats or GOP's plans are flawed is just an exercise in futility. Health Care will, regardless, continue to trend on the path of everything else -- the rich will get theirs and the poor will be taken care of to a point we accept as "well enough" and the middle class will get squeezed out.

Same as it ever was.

[Cal Lash]

YEP

[teri dudas]

Bradley - it's all in his book. Read it.

[B. Franklin]

For those of you who don't have the time or inclination to read anything that Dr. Ben Carson writes, or, more probably, has written for him, here's a precis of his "plan":

"Under his plan, Carson says people would be free to return to private plans they used before the Affordable Care Act, even if those plans did not meet the “minimal essential coverage” requirements put in place by the federal government. Pre-Obamacare plans often were less expensive, but did not meet basic expectations of insurance.

Also under Carson’s plan, the age that seniors would become eligible for Medicare would jump from 65 to 70. Seniors in the program would receive fixed contributions to their own choice of private health plan, rather than a government one.

Medicaid, meanwhile, would be shifted to the states, although Carson would block state officials from using federal money to administer the program. Instead, Medicaid dollars would have to be used to pay for coverage or go to people’s private health savings accounts. The plan does not stipulate how states would pay to administrate the program.

Four pages of Carson’s ten-page plan are full color photos of himself, including two from when he worked as a neurosurgeon. In one of the images, he looks intently at brain scans, and in the other, he is wearing full scrubs performing a surgery."

To summarize: Garbage In, Garbage Out.

[Jerry McKenzie]

Running up debt is part of the neo-liberal plan. Not happy with the little folk being yoked with home, car, college (and soon to be secondary and primary education), and consumption debt they will lasso us with the national debt and then rich will flee to nations looking for a stronger flow of trickle down.

[Cal Lash]

You want to waste your time on Ben Carson's insane comments, be my guest. According to the web His medical license was revoked by all 50 states. Hope no one here let him operate on thier brain.
Maybe the Donald will put him in charge of brain behavioral surgery in vacant Walmart FEMA lock downs. Obama is go to quit using those sites on 012016 when the Putin puppet king clown takes over.

[Bradley Dranka]

Ms. Dudas,

Let's see if the Republicans propose it: I'll read it if they actually propose anything. I'm highly skeptical they have anything to offer that isn't some version of "you're on your own" because so much of their ethos is individualist--and not about community other than their own.

[Cal Lash]

The current GOP leaders are intent on establishing white supremacy and Baron states and putting a chain collar around the neck of the poor and people of color. You can tell by the stupid grin on the pudgy lilly white senator from Kentucky that he is as happy as a Yorkshire hog in a mud bath as he sticks it to non White folks. I predict the blood bath is about to begin.

[Gump]

everything will work out

[Cal Lash]

U have a definition of "work out"?

[Donna]

I am watching Leah Rimini's series on Scientology and thinking the Scientologists are quite a bit like the Trump followers. No matter what factual evidence is presented to them they stick with their own alternative reality (thank you Terry). CNN is fake news, Trump did not mock the disabled, Obama was born in Kenya, Russia had nothing to do with the election. They remind me of the old joke of the wife finding her husband in bed with the other woman, and when caught, denies it and asks her "who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?" I'm waiting for the whole scientologist mindset-if you find fault with the church, you're a criminal. And we have years of this to get through...

[Mark in Scottsdale]

Jon, you are so imaginative and colorful in your opinions or projections. Posts like this are so well-rendered and compelling-sounding that I enjoy reading them regardless of whether I agree or disagree.

I have to think you might have a great dystopian novel or two in your pen if you ever wanted to write one.

Also, I found your City of Phoenix book to be a breezy but rich read. You packed a lot of valuable history into the brief format, and I continue to hope for a more expansive Phoenix history book to be commissioned for you someday.

Quote from Concern Troll:
"That is the stupid part of the R party- cutting medicare and social security along with a Medical Insurance debacle will almost ensure a horrific midterm election and the possibility of losing the house."

I agree, I feel like this runs the risk of eroding public support in a hurry. You have total control, total power ... and you're going to immediately pursue your least popular agenda items? I guess you'll never have more complete control, but you have to realize how much damage it will cost you in midterms and in public opinion if you actually cut the most popular entitlements.

I think healthcare in America is such a morass than any attempt to improve it, or worsen it, immediately becomes a disaster. There is so much money on both sides and so many special interests and so many people getting various subsidies and handouts that it's nigh-impossible to navigate.

I will be surprised if they successfully repeal OR replace it. I think they'll chip away at parts of it but ultimately leave the body of it to fail (or persist) on its own merits/flaws. We shall see.

The current political situation reminds me of trench warfare...the lines move back and forth a little bit but it's ultimately an intractable quagmire in which the celebrated advances here and there of a few miles are of little consequence and require great human sacrifice.

Personally speaking, no matter how awful or great things may seem, I believe God is in control and there is always a greater purpose to the highs and lows of the human existence. This is a challenging time but I believe He will bring us through it.

A more secular encouragement might be that, hey, the American left survived eight years of W., about whom they were pretty distraught in 2000, and made it through to have eight years of a President of their choosing. It seems American politics is always a back and forth.

In the meantime, I'm trying to stay focused on doing what I can do to be a positive witness and, I hope, make some sort of positive impact on the people around me.

Thanks to all for your insights and opinions, it's always nice to have the chance to hear new opinions and think about things.