The chart above is pimped on Twitter as "Voter anger explained — in one chart."
With all due respect to my friends at Brookings, it doesn't explain the lead enjoyed in Arizona by [the real-estate developer]. The Wall Street Journal is closer to the mark in a story headlined, "Arizona Primaries to Stress Immigration."
[The real-estate developer] has made illegal immigration a centerpiece of his campaign since the day he entered the presidential race last June. He’s said many illegal immigrants from Mexico are “criminals” and “rapists.”
He’s also called for the mass deportation of all 11 million illegal immigrants currently living in the U.S. One of his top applause lines at rallies is that he will build a wall along the entire U.S.-Mexican border and force the Mexican government to pay for it. His rivals, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, have made similar comments.
“Border security is not just rhetoric here in Arizona,” said Christine Jones, a businesswoman and Republican activist who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2014. “It will always be among the top issues because it’s an issue that people live” in their day to day lives in the state, said Ms. Jones, who is currently neutral in the 2016 race.
Mr. Trump has won the endorsements of the popular former governor of the state, Jan Brewer, as well as Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who has built a national reputation for his tough stances on undocumented immigrants and his unorthodox treatment of prisoners in his custody, including housing inmates in tents and forcing them to wear pink underwear.
How precious of one of Rupert Murdoch's mouthpieces to talk of the Badged Ego's "unorthodox treatment of prisoners..." (Read civil rights violations and prisoner deaths that have cost the county millions of dollars and set a trap that might finally bring this villain down — my sources say he is finally beginning to sweat).
But you get the idea. In Arizona and many places around the country, the appeal of [the real-estate developer] is all about maintaining white supremacy and regaining lost status by the blue-collar white demographic in the midst of a changing America.
Arizona was never a major manufacturing state. It had no auto industry to lose to Mexico or machine tools to China, as with Ohio. It had no textile, apparel, and furniture sectors employing 300,000 or more, as did the Carolinas — lost to China. Since the 1980s, its incomes have trailed the national average. The legacy semiconductor industries lured to Phoenix by great effort from the late 1940s through the 1960s are mostly a memory, especially Motorola.
No, this election is all about brown skin, about beating back "the other."
Nevermind that Arizona used to be part of Mexico. Or that illegal immigrant labor has been an essential part of the short hustle of cheap housing for retirees from the Midwest. Logic does not trump self-selecting tribalism.
I know what some of you are thinking: that #FeelTheBern will somehow do something that even SB 1070 and sweeps couldn't do. That it can mobilize a transformative wave of Hispanic voting that makes Arizona a purple, even a blue state.
Nothing in Arizona's history, certainly not since the enormous influx of Anglos from the Midwest gave Republicans a lock on state politics (goodbye Roosevelt Row BID), indicates this will happen. All of the outrages of recent years, all the failures of Republican policies, have only reinforced the ruling Anglo class. Because they vote. If anything, the Democratic Party has become weaker. And don't expect a Social Democratic Party to make Maryvale offset the East Valley, Sun City, and championship golf.
1. It's just laughable as the media, the GOP, and everyone else tries to explain the appeal of Trump. The answer is that there is no answer. It just is.
2. And yeah, people are frustrated about the lack of an answer on the immigration problem. The federal government does nothing, a few states (including Arizona) do something, and then the federal government sues those states. And then sanctuary cities decide to ignore the federal laws. President "I can't lead" signs executive orders that get tied up in courts while the middle class muddles along while some support college tuition assistance for young people who aren't even citizens. This entire country should hang it's head in shame on the lack of an immigration solution.
3. I think a part of Trump's draw (and here I go doing what no one else can) is more about trade and perhaps tougher trade laws helping those lost or reduced manufacturing jobs. Or maybe all those millions of middle class workers, making less money than they did years ago, just hate Mexicans while they trade stories about the good old days and lynchings.
Racism or economics?
On this blog, it's usually racism.
Posted by: INPHX | March 17, 2016 at 04:40 PM
Inphx did you get these thoughts while changing your clothes in a phone booth?
Posted by: Cal lash | March 17, 2016 at 05:41 PM
Xenophobia never goes out of style on the right, so it's natural that Trump has an advantage with the Republican Party's ultra-low information base. Contra our resident Koch Troll, that base is less apt to connect the dots between trade agreements and less employment opportunities and income. Of course, this is the party that was adamantly against the auto bailout. Yes, they're idiots, but there still has to be a reason why they vote against their own interests. This is why the black magic of hate is so important since the party uses it to cleverly mask the import of libertarian economics. Koch Troll can't have it both ways. Either Ayn Rand is right or there is a role for government, including making trade deals that are fairer to American workers and mitigating the worst impacts of globalization.
Donald Trump, of course, is a fraud. He's uses incendiary rhetoric not because he really believes what he's saying but because he's an instinctive demagogue. He's not going to build a wall on the southern border, he wouldn't tear up trade agreements, and he won't deport 11 million Mexicans. He would devastate the economy if he did. This charlatan would sooner divert the rubes with diversionary antics like getting into a Twitter war with some "loser".
I'm surprised Trump looks like he's going to win the nomination. I would never have predicted this outcome, and I still wouldn't be surprised if something happens between now and his presumed ascension. That said, if he wins the nomination, and Hillary is his opponent, he will not win. I'll go out on a limb and predict he'll even turn Arizona blue. The election will be high turnout, and this will give the Dems a marked advantage.
I read the Front Page link to Informed Comment the other day (http://www.juancole.com/2016/03/what-is-political-revolution-and-can-bernie-sanders-deliver.html)
The writer Ali R. Abootalebi posits the idea of a Social Democratic Party that could harness the Bernie Sanders movement's fervor. I find the idea fanciful if only because it's extraordinarily difficult creating an institution out of whole cloth. The history of third parties is this country is usually one of short-lived excitement and long-term futility. Moreover, it misses how the Democratic Party is really up for grabs in terms of ideological coloration. You want a more liberal Democratic Party? Run for office! There is no conspiracy thwarting liberals from taking control of the party. If there is an impediment, it's that politics is an exercise in straddling interest groups and concerns. Purists are easily frustrated for a reason.
The reality of America is that we have a left and right in America where the right is essentially bonkers with xenophobia, resentment, and litmus tests. In this vein, Trump is the agent that strips all the ideological finery and reveals the naked beast underneath. This means the left has to carry the burden of responsible governance in a nation that is often untethered to reality. There's a huge tug of war, blue vs red, that pits relative sanity against stark insanity. We have to win this war before this nation can finally move forward. I wish there was an easier way to do this. There isn't. We're at an impasse because this is a 50-50 nation. There is no possibility of real change until this logjam breaks.
Posted by: soleri | March 17, 2016 at 05:44 PM
Soleri says: You want a more liberal Democratic Party? Run for office!
Exactly.
Posted by: Hattie | March 17, 2016 at 06:18 PM
Soleri writes:
"There's a huge tug of war, blue vs red, that pits relative sanity against stark insanity."
"the right is essentially bonkers with xenophobia, resentment, and litmus tests."
I guess the second quote proves the first.....
And I was against the auto bailout. I think it's pretty clear that history has taught us that only a certain moronic, naïve, chump (like Soleri) would have been for it:
http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/29/news/companies/gm-profit-bailout/
Thanks guys- for providing a clinic in how to privatize profits and socialize losses.
Posted by: INPHX | March 17, 2016 at 08:17 PM
Inphx I think U had those words backwards. Should read economic racism?
I don't find Trumps or Sanders success suprising. I think it's very clear and has been for a long time that the US was going to get to these flash points.
I don't think Obama is responsible for nada movement on immigration. It was at a stalemate long before Obama and then when he got in, it was the GOP that decided to do nothing on Obama's watch. The message, no more black presidents.
Personally I had difficulties with the bailouts and trade deals. But more so I have dissolutionment with the the continued lack of bringing Wall Street into the justice system. As I write Goldman Sachs has a new program borrowed from the failed Bit Com financial system plugged into their faster than the speed of sound trading transactions.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 17, 2016 at 09:53 PM
AND, In the US, Economic racism is the non violent equivalent of Mexico's limpieza social.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 17, 2016 at 10:00 PM
Inphx, u want to splain why that auto bailout news clip that u posted sounds overall like a bad deal? My read seems to suggest despite the mentioned losses and profits, in the long run it worked out reasonably well
Posted by: Cal lash | March 17, 2016 at 10:08 PM
Cal:
Ford didn't need a bailout. A normal GM bankruptcy would have worked out; no one needed the federal government to stick it's nose in. But to a regulator, why waste a crisis?
Taxpayers (you and me) got hosed so that unions, GM executives, and certain equity holders made out like bandits.
Even if you agree that there should have been a bailout, taxpayers (the capital source) should have made out like bandits-not the folks (unions, GM management) that helped create the mess.
Posted by: INPHX | March 18, 2016 at 08:09 AM
Must be cause I'm Old. When I hear the word Regulator, Moonshine immediately comes to mind. Boys har comes dem thar regulators.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 18, 2016 at 08:25 AM
Cal:
To a hammer, the world looks like a nail.
To a regulator, the world is something to regulate.
Posted by: INPHX | March 18, 2016 at 09:11 AM
INPHX For many years I was a Regulator ( a cop and and administrator for government agencies). However for the last 20 plus I been working for the "Dark Side". Also known as defense attorneys.
As a 75 year old Republican I greatly admire and respect Bernie Sanders and the ever humble Jose Mujica.
And I have no respect for those that have brought us Lucifer and his buddy Mussolini.
Particularly I have great disdain for Ted Cruz's Theocratic religious beliefs. Organized religions evolution has been ugly and in particular Theocratic religion. The resurrection of the sword has been coming to the US for years and is now being held high as the solution to all things.
So I pray for a socialistic atheist to carry election day.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 18, 2016 at 10:41 AM
Cal:
I have previously expressed both a liking and a sense of respect for Sanders; he is humble, straightforward, a great communicator, and you know exactly what you're getting. He also has a generally unblemished record which is rare in today's world. I'd respect him as a President (I think). I'd disagree with him, but I'd respect him. And quite honestly, he's probably at the top of the respect list for me in this cycle
I find Cruz extremely unlikable. He's bright, he's focused, he has a terrific resume, but I am also put off by the bible thumping (although not as much as you). And I think he's wrong on immigration.
The religion thing gets confusing. We see the carnage in some part of the rest of the rest of the world when states endorse religions; thank God that our Framers had the sense to try to distance religion and politics.
But I think that's different than someone letting religious beliefs influence how they vote; especially on social issues. If a Catholic is against abortion because they are Catholic and they support candidates who share that view, is that the religious influence that the Constitution wants to avoid? What if an atheist happens to be against abortion? Are the motives of the voters important?
BTW, who are you praying to?
Posted by: INPHX | March 18, 2016 at 11:12 AM
The Sajuaro.
In the full moon the Coyote and I stand in the shadow of a great Sahuaro and howl.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 18, 2016 at 12:33 PM
INPHX, I am opposed to all Organized Religion. But not to all religious people.
When I backpacked from Arizona to DC in 95-96, I pitched my tent in many church lawns. I was only turned down 3 times in 5 months. Twice by the Catholics and once by the Presbyterian Church in Texas near SMU, even though my name was Calvin. I spent that nite in the fire house next to the church at the invitation of the firefighters. And then the next nite at SMU at the request of my attorneys student daughter.
As a militant agnostic I believe one has a right to an abortion but in general I am opposed to abortion particularly when it involves a lack of responsible actions.
I also favor ones Right to Die.
Another reason to live in Oregon.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 18, 2016 at 01:30 PM
Romney, a member of the Theocratic once lost tribe of Israel now found in Utah just endorsed the Theocratic tent revivalist, Ted Cruz. I'm waiting to see if FLDS Warren Jeffs currently locked up in Texas also supports his Theocratic Brethren Texan, Ted Cruz.
Well U know what they say, God is always on the side of the right. Or is it Righteous?
It was so long ago when I was held captive and tortured in the basements of " Christian " churches.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 18, 2016 at 02:22 PM
I wonder what Trump and Arpaio talked about before his endorsement? I wonder if it could be anything so crude as a full presidential pardon, in the event he ever needs one? Joe's gotta be getting tuckered out by now, but if he retires, an outsider will get a look at the books. The time for an independent audit would be better for Joe in oh, say, after his funeral. How's that for karmic retribution-old, tired, in big legal trouble and the subject of oversight by the Justice Department, surrounded by new sharks he barely knows, after having thrown all the old sharks under the bus to save his own ass?
Or maybe Trump just promised to make him head of Homeland Security. INS wouldn't be prestigious enough for Nickel Bag Joe. Homeland gets you lots of air time.
Posted by: Pat | March 18, 2016 at 06:15 PM
Cuba is another plus for Obama. REPUBLICAN legislators/business owners to fly to Cuba with Obama to sell Cheese and Chevy's.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 19, 2016 at 08:18 AM
Interesting NYT article on the loss of manufacturing jobs, and the political fall-out in Indiana.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/good-jobs-goodbye-a-factory%e2%80%99s-closure-sows-seeds-of-anger/ar-BBqFudi?li=BBnbcA1
Granted, the Phoenix area never had the kind of manufacturing jobs discussed in the article, but (back in the 1970's) we did have a broad-based, functioning economy. Folks could make a living.
I know some of Trump's Arizona supporters are racists, but I don't think that explains everything about his supporters. Even in Arizona.
Still feelin' the Bern!
Posted by: sj | March 19, 2016 at 08:39 AM
The bad side if opening Cuba is that the likes of Monsanto, Cargill and a lot of new Chevey"s will destroy what's left of Cubas natural environment.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 19, 2016 at 08:46 AM
SJ, WHAT Arizona needs is more Wilderness and less people. I live on the deserts edges and every day developers destroy more of the Great Sonoran Desert. Not much left but you know we have to have places for Canadians to winter.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 19, 2016 at 08:50 AM
If white voters were that angry about trade John Kasich, who voted for NAFTA and reiterated his love of free trade deals at a recent debate, would never have been elected Governor of Ohio. The only politicians who have (arguably) been punished for it have been Democrats.
Posted by: Donna Gratehouse | March 19, 2016 at 03:59 PM
"As a militant agnostic I believe one has a right to an abortion but in general I am opposed to abortion particularly when it involves a lack of responsible actions."
LOL. Because when someone is irresponsible what you definitely want her to be is a parent.
Posted by: Donna Gratehouse | March 19, 2016 at 04:01 PM
Yes, Cal, we need to keep our wilderness, our desert. I can't argue with that at all. How do we convince the rest of the yahoos to stop subsidizing the developers?
We are putting a 6 lane freeway through South Mtn. Park! Can't wait for Loop 404 to break ground . . . gotta have that cheap land for houses. Tell me again, when was that building boom supposed to hit?
I read somewhere (LA Times?) that what is holding back the next housing boom is that we don't have enough "immigrant labor" (read: cheap, exploitable, throw-away human beings) for the developers to REALLY make a profit.
Posted by: sj | March 19, 2016 at 05:27 PM
Donna, Good point!
Posted by: Cal lash | March 19, 2016 at 07:00 PM
Donna, Good point but even though I was a para-medic and a cop the thought still makes me queasy.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 19, 2016 at 07:12 PM
So far a good read by a former Hillary associate. "The Industries of the Future by Alec Ross.
Posted by: Cal lash | March 20, 2016 at 12:00 PM
The Theocrats favor a Theocrat and if that dosent work they will go with a Democrat??
would-support-democrat-if-trump-becomes-republican-pr/21330683/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk1%26pLid%3D-1602712478
Posted by: Cal Lash | March 20, 2016 at 01:38 PM
NAFTA was signed by Bill Clinton and ratified by a majority Dem senate. Trump will just yell "NAFTA, Clinton. Nafta, Clinton" There wasn't a lot of domestic opposition, nor much in the way of balanced discussion in the media. The best info on the likely consequences of the deal came from left wing media- particularly Pacifica radio. The demonstrations in Seattle were portrayed almost exclusively as a riot, which indeed in part took place, carried out by an anarchist faction. Chicken, meet roost.
Posted by: Dawgzy | March 20, 2016 at 04:59 PM
This logic regarding immigration is so interesting. 'there was no manufacturing industry in Arizona's past, therefore RACISM...'
It's sad how there is no mention of the people on this planet trying to migrate to the USA legally. Their story goes unheard mostly.
Posted by: 311fan | March 23, 2016 at 06:40 PM