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September 03, 2015

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The migration going on in the middle east and Africa due to political unrest and climate change is dwarfing our little problem. If it visits us, our response will be very, very ugly.

Great post---

The migrant problem (and it's spin offs) may soon become the most important issue in the world (and the US)

People living in horrid conditions risking everything to move somewhere where they hope it will be better. And some with perhaps more nefarious motives.

But those inflow countries- they're broke. They can't handle the influx. They have large parts of the population that abhor the immigration- because of the jobs situation and the utilization of social services. And because of long entrenched religions and cultures.

It's not hard to imagine that soon, the military will be used to turn the people away.

Here in the US, I'm 100% for some type of pathway to citizenship for the existing illegals in this country. But you HAVE to close the border.

Every day that we don't, the problem is just going to get worse and worse.

And how many cops and at what financial cost will "CLOSE THE BORDER, be?
Might it be cheaper to do something to make people not want to migrate?

Immigration, per se, has never really been the problem. Assimilation is the problem—or the challenge. I agree that “open borders have always been an article of faith for liberals…”, as a conservative, I agree in principle. Anyone who wishes to come to America, become an American, learn our language, and adopt our culture is more than welcome. No, I don’t care what language they speak at home, or what day of the week they worship—or if they worship, but they should want to become “one of us”.

Proponents of open borders will argue that most immigrants do—in fact—want to assimilate, and I agree. My complaint is not so much with the immigrants themselves as with the “politically correct” liberals who have insisted in steering us away from the “melting pot” concept that was in vogue when Emma Lazarus penned those words and towards acceptance of a multicultural America populated by persons of hyphenated heritage.

For all its faults, America—and our culture—are exceptional, and the “moral relativism” promulgated by many liberals has done more damage than any influx of immigrants.

Securing the border—physically, electronically, or in some fashion—would benefit the immigrants themselves most. The border should be secured not to keep immigrants out, but to guide them to official points of entry where they can be processed through to learn who they are and what their intentions are.

If it makes sense to “background check” persons who purchase guns, it also makes sense to “background check” anyone who enters this country—and for similar reasons.

Except for Native Americans and some Hispanics, all of us are immigrants or descendants of immigrants, and we should approach the issue with the sensitivity that fact infers. We need to focus less on “legal” and “illegal” and more on who is coming here and why.

I knew an illegal immigrant in Phoenix who belonged to my running club. Although he was in his twenties, it took him a quite long time to learn English. He works for a landscaping company in the north Valley, now as the operational manager. His brother was killed in a car wreck back in Sinaloa a few years back, so he returned to Mexico to help settle property issues and mourn his dead brother. He had to hire a coyote to bring him back over the border, a trip so arduous this elite distance runner feared for his life. His life now is here, he's fairly successful, and most of his family is here, too. Legally, I should add.

When we talk about illegal immigration, it helps to remember these people have stories. Not every story is as good as my friend's but they are still worthy of respect and the dignity as human beings. When I look at someone like Joe Arpaio, who I don't respect, I find myself caring less about the law and more about the people who are victimized by it.

We live in an era of rapid globalization and the free flow of capital. At the same time, human capital is despised if it's wrapped in the wrong skin color. Ironically enough, it's often by the same people who think money is the paramount human value.

I don't know many Real Americans who can pick tomatoes all day, or sew garments in sweat shops, or build new houses for Midwestern transplants in exurban Arizona. Most white-skinned people couldn't last a day out in the fields let alone on a construction site in Mesa. Yet they despise the people whose labor keeps their food cheap and their housing affordable.

I'm not disagreeing with anyone here. I understand that change is upsetting. I fully get why people want laws to be enforced. I just want some simple acknowledgment that immigrants are human beings, too. If you're a Christian and you support someone like Donald Trump (a recent poll shows Trump leading among evangelical Christians), you are a hypocrite of the worst kind. Yes, it's okay to have mixed feelings about complex issues like immigration. But please: separate out from those feelings your petty bigotries, which are nothing more than the cruel instinct to despise "others" as less than yourself.

Very good post soleri.

Here in the southwest, when you go to a Chinese, Vietnamese, Thai, Korean restaurant and the owner and staff speak their language exclusively, they are "quaint, adding to the ambience, respecting their culture."

When you go to a Mexican restaurant and they speak Spanish, "why don't they learn to speak English"

I fail to understand the two different attitudes.

Bigotry is a tough thing to get your lasso around.

Bigotry feeds on ignorance and lately the feeding is good.

For some interesting reading on possible growth check out this sight.

az.gov/passengerrail select purpose and need. Check out table 1-2 projected population growth.

This whole thing might become another WBYIB.
As I have often said "we are screwing ourselves out of a place to stand"

"The only solution available is to rebuild the places in Syria and Libya et al that the refugees originate from, and allow them to live decent lives in their homelands. If Brussels, and Washington, fail to realize this, things will get real ugly. We haven’t seen anything yet." -- Even if Brussels and Washington realize this (an arguable point), there is still the "minor" problem of achieving such a change in these regions by external players. It is not like all the West has to do is snap its fingers and all will be bliss. Turning back movements like ISIS, which has made these countries unlivable, is no easy task, short of all-out war. Thanks to the efforts of GWB and his cronies by extending an explainable war (Afghanistan) into a larger, contrived conflict (Iraq), they have permanently poisoned the waters in this region, and depleted whatever energy our nation has (financial, military, or emotional) to repeat the process. Sadly, our options are few and far between for dealing with the real problem you raise here.

When you get that many unemployed young men the traditional employment for them is war and empire.

Assimilation is the problem—or the challenge. Not. We've assimilated all the white people, a few of Asian decent, and a few of Hispanic descent. Our prejudice/bigotry/racism prevent us from assimilating or even treating equally Americans of African descent and those of the 500 Nations and those that are just too ethnic (read darker).

I am descended from two sets of immigrants. Everyone else was a colonist.

There must be a smarter solution than re creating the Wall of China and the Berlin Wall on the North and South borders of the US. But if you must spend my money doing that I want many passage ways for all non human living species to go back and forth. I like seeing Jaguars in Santa Cruz County. More Mas Tarde.

Ending the drug war would go a long to stabilizing Mexico and Central America.

Jerry, U kidding! Ending the drug war would seriously erode the profit margins for the 6000 financiers that run the world and god only knows how the Mexican elite would survive let alone put a lot of peons out of work.
So let's keep the Evil Marijuana Man scaring our kids.
HA! Weed is the only evil one can't buy at the local convenience market. Booze, cigs, lottery tickets, sugary drinks and food guareenteed to give you diabetes and where you can pickup a hooker but not a hookah.

And why is it banks pay you one percent on your savings bur make 30 percent on laundering?

Sealing and open borders. For a while i have posted advocating for open borders. I must admit this stupid remark was in response to the stupidity of "Sealing" the border. As a 75 year old retired cop I know both are not possible. I believe the best solutions are creating environments that encourage people to not migrate. And of course Malthus and I still think there is population issue that should continue to be addressed.
but from time to time I will still make outlandish remarks as i believe they generate controversial conversation.

I recently looked up the DEA Schedule I classification of marijuana and compared it the other four schedules and surprise, surprise, what was not on any schedule was alcohol, nicotine, or caffeine. Strange, but convincing evidence that marijuana should not be classified either.

Making the elite of the world do honest work (if that is possible in those circles) would solve a few migration problems too. Sending their children off to fight their wars would be even better, because obviously the refugees from, say Syria or Mexico or Honduras or Guatemala, don't believe there is anything worth fighting for there.

The reality is this, as this country ages, people are going to realize that unlimited growth is dead. Then comes the pull the ladder up behind mentality. With that comes the shut out the competition for our own poor folks.

And that means the end of no real identification in America. Boo hoo. Everyone will be in the system, one way or another. The illegals will have to be entered into the system, and it will most likely be a DNA print, which will be unassailable, since we are already taking samples from everyone going through the justice system. Now, whether or not we decide to end birthright citizenship, employment and access to social services will depend entirely on your citizenship status.

I also foresee that children of illegals who wish to keep their parents here will be forced to pay for them to access social services, or pick up the tab at the door.

Mass deportation. Well, for all of the folks who fly here, and get smuggled in, and overstay visas- too bad. Good bye.

Asylum will be nearly dead.

Simple lifeboat economics. We have millions of people who think coming here will save them, and we don't want to pay for them.

And a country that ages has far less sympathy for refugees, because they are thinking of their senior center versus subsidized housing for refugees.

Refugees lose, especially in the numbers we are talking about. Last week I was in St. Paul MN, doing business with the locals, and the comments about the Somalis and the Hmong were absolutely racist by the old swedish bunch. And they were pissed at the cultural dilution and crowding resulting from those resettlements.

If one of the most liberal states in America is done, well, shut the door.

Cal, a wall won't be necessary, if you have big brother. And we have big brother.

The day of the illegal immigrant is passed, and Mexico has not been a large net contributor in the past 7 years. The rest of Central America is now the largest source.

As for some benighted idea that we can fix governance and the economy in some foreign land to shut off the sources of illegal immigration, we can barely manage to poorly govern our own country.

So, in short, technology will enable what will be decried as fascism, but will be implemented in the next five to ten years. The first steps alone will cause quite the exodus from America.

In reality, these solutions are not very palatable to folks raised on the idealism of the past, but reality is the current bottom half of America does not need more competition, and we really don't need H1-B visas beyond a few high powered professors.

Now these laws would be passed in an instant if you threatened to import another million lawyers....just sayin;-0

I have often wondered
if climate change was acerbating the migration problem and terrorism was just the spark that started the fire.If you look at the terrain of the migrants you sure understand why they want to migrate.

Walls: I do not like walls whether they are around a house a pasture or a country. I seek the open landscape where one can see to the edge of the earth.

Lots of nothing available in Arizona, I suggest you buy some land out in Northeast Arizona. The horizon is your temple there, and empty is the word.

Just remember what so much of the world now resembles, and take a view of Mexico City from Google Earth.

Cal Lash, western romantic in a world that runs more like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touch_of_Evil

Excellent post RC. Not to argue the point, but Lefties have been equally complicit in having “sane discussions” about immigration. Any objection to open borders is met with the racist accusations.

To all: the main logical failing exhibited is the assumption that peace, prosperity and justice are the natural order of things. The truth: only in most fleeting periods of history has this been even remotely true.

@Cal: You’re such a likable guy, I hate to say this: you really need to look into just how wonderful the primitive life is. You quoted Jared Diamond recently. He wrote a really interesting book. “The World Until Yesterday: What We Can Learn from Traditional Societies” detailing his experiences in New Guinea.

Unlimited growth dead? The US and other developed economies grow on average only 2-3% over the long term. Little or no growth would effect much more than the bottom half of the US population.

Where will the revenue for Social Security, Medicare and state pensions come from without population growth? Far more than half the US population relies heavily on these programs being funded.

Given the fertility rates of citizens in the US, without immigration the national economic model will be Detroit, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Gary during the collapse of the industrial base in the US. It is humorous to read the native Arizonans comments on the benefits of a contracting population in Arizona. Guess what, the first to leave the contracting economy ship is future talent not the unskilled.

Nothing much will change politically in the next 5 to 10 years if the past is any indication, and it is the best indication of future political action. As long as world population continues to grow, so will the US population. There is a lot of room in the US for growth and continued immigration is one necessary key.

The world does not look like Mexico City. Texas and most of the heartland have plenty of room to increase population. Yes, it is crowded on the coasts and Phoenix is too big for the desert environment. The rest of the US not so much.

There are rednecks everywhere in the US. The Twin Cities has them just like NYC, Seattle and Arizona. The difference is the community values of Minneapolis are strong, and Minneapolis has long been a refugee welcoming state due to the activities of the Lutheran Church which has powerful outreach programs for Africa and previously for Vietnam. Rather than judge the immigrant climate of a city by talking to white locals who develop their notions on immigration from Faux News and snowbird adventures to Texas, Florida and Arizona, go to the Mosque on prayer day in NE Minneapolis or the great libraries any day, and observe the health and welfare of Somalis and Hmong. Clean and healthy unlike the masses on the streets of Arizona. The political power there has a brain and a soul, unlike the politicians in cowboy Arizona.

The developed countries will be competing for immigrants to shore up demographic holes from low fertility rates in their countries. The US electorate and political power would ultimately choose increased immigration over long term no economic growth. But that issue will never be decided because things will continue more or less as the have for the past decades.

Rogue and company once again shows its reactionary Goldwater essence of national and regional bigotry with pretty words and sly denials. No deep understanding of the entire US nor the world for that matter.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2015_09/why_donald_trump_will_defeat_t057458.php#

The link above illuminates the real meaning of the Trump rump: the Southern Strategy as a permanent feature of a party taking advantage of the backlash from the civil-rights revolution. At the same time, Republican operatives knew their advantage was time-stamped. Demographic changes would eventually doom any whites-only political party, hence immigration reform as the necessary escape hatch from their own cynical calculations. Enter right: Donald Trump locking in the suicide pact the party thought it could finesse. It can't. It's a permanent feature of a party self-immolating in its own fiery id.

@Escapee re: “Unlimited growth dead? The US and other developed economies grow on average only 2-3% over the long term. Little or no growth would effect much more than the bottom half of the US population.”
2-3% economic growth is a good rate when compounded of over a period of time. But there is some provocative evidence that the future rate will be somewhere around 0%. The cause: lack of scientific/engineering breakthroughs.

A highly recommended article which addresses this issue:

http://nymag.com/news/features/economic-growth-2013-7/

From the article:
“For all of measurable human history up until the year 1750, nothing happened that mattered. This isn’t to say history was stagnant, or that life was only grim and blank, but the well-being of average people did not perceptibly improve. All of the wars, literature, love affairs, and religious schisms, the schemes for empire-making and ocean-crossing and simple profit and freedom, the entire human theater of ambition and deceit and redemption took place on a scale too small to register, too minor to much improve the lot of ordinary human beings.”
…..
“Then two things happened that did matter, and they were so grand that they dwarfed everything that had come before and encompassed most everything that has come since: the first industrial revolution, beginning in 1750 or so in the north of England, and the second industrial revolution, beginning around 1870 and created mostly in this country.”
….
“ If nothing like the first and second industrial revolutions had ever happened before, what is to say that anything similar will happen again? Then, perhaps, the global economic slump that we have endured since 2008 might not merely be the consequence of the burst housing bubble, or financial entanglement and overreach, or the coming generational trauma of the retiring baby boomers, but instead a glimpse at a far broader change, the slow expiration of a historically singular event. Perhaps our fitful post-crisis recovery is no aberration. This line of thinking would make you an acolyte of a 72-year-old economist at Northwestern named Robert Gordon, and you would probably share his view that it would be crazy to expect something on the scale of the second industrial revolution to ever take place again.”

Arizona escapee,
Where did you escape to? It would help to understand your interesting world view.

Why do I get the feeling our immigration policy is dictated by the MIC?

Invade Vietnam. Hey, any of you folks heard of MN, CA, gulf coast?

Invade Afghanistan. Hey, any of you folks heard of the South Bay of San fran.

Stick our nose in Somalia. Hey, any of you pirates been to AZ.

Invade Iraq. Hey, good luck, stay home.

Stick our nose in Yemen. Hey, good luck. Watch out for those drones.

Invade Mexico and we'll have 11 million new citizens.

Wow . Dead thread.

I know, F#@k the immigrants.

We're here. Stay where you are.

If God wanted you to be American, you would have been born here.

Destiny is a bitch. Get over it.

Geez Ruben, have some patience with the huddled Masses.
Wkg I have seen the book. But waiting for a cheap copy and right now i gotta a stack ahead of it.

AND
Ah, such an enjoyable spanking by the ever professorial Arizona Escapee, or should we just call him Professor Bill. He doesn’t appear to be god like or maybe the second son of Hal and David. I did agree with a most of his observations but found it unnecessary of him to remind me that I am just a mentally challenged child. At least in his opinion. I think the Lutheran church has been extremely efficient at their missionary work. So was my mother. But I am not. I have never been a fan of religious missionary proselytizing. I spread my donations out among street urchins (not Panhandlers Jon.) and Kieran Suckling.
Professor Bills post was based on 5 to 10 years? What about 2060 and the population then, lots of old soylent green people to feed the lesser young population. That’s the bad news. The good news, it appears the world population may start to be decreasing? Demographic Transition!
In the meantime, since “Phoenix is too big for the desert.” I agree so let us starting exiling all but those whose ancestors got here after 1400. (Ruben you get to stay). And I do not want to fill up empty spaces but create more Roadless Wilderness. U want to grow the population, Do it in Houston, NY City, Seattle, Deli, Shanghai, Istanbul, London but not LA, they keep moving west nor Tokyo, likely to erupt in a violent fury of lavas and Mexico city is sinking so no more there, not Cairo they are soon to be out of river water. Well you get my drift. Less people more Oryx gracing the Arabian desert.
Keep posting Bill but Arizona Escapee do not come back unless you bring proof of your prior 1400 ancestors.

"I agree so let us starting exiling all but those whose ancestors got here after 1400. (Ruben you get to stay).
Should be BEFORE 1400 not after.

Lol, nobody thinks we can turn back the hands of the immigration clock. But it has been done before in America, and look at those polls- geez the political chattering class is fracturing away- it is wascist to simply point out the obvious- the current immigration debacle is going to get much worse.

So, what happens when it gets bad enough to cause us to re-evaluate our sacred growth cows? Arizona growth is now anemic, because intra America immigration has slowed to Arizona. And now illegals are going to leave. I find it ironic that kicking out a ton of people will initially slow the economy, but in the long run will raise wages.

And the long run is the most important to consider- and quite frankly while people keep burying the GOP as wascist, they manage to keep on winning elections.

Trump is terrifying because the establishment can't control him, can't buy him off, and most likely can't stop him from being elected unless the Dems get someone to be a better populist.

And Hillary sure ain't a populist.


http://www.census.gov/popclock/world

The developed countries will be competing for immigrants to shore up demographic holes from low fertility rates in their countries. The US electorate and political power would ultimately choose increased immigration over long term no economic growth.

This is an idea worth watching. It visited my consciousness a few months back when I was reading about the countries with the two oldest populations: Japan and Italy.

Those two nations are much further along the aging path than we here. Japan's immediate future in particularly will be worth watching. As arguably, there is no substitute for the energy and idealism of young people. Of course, like everything, too much of a good thing can become a bad thing.

Lastly, James Wimberley's recent post has some interesting ideas in it. Along the line of Cal's question: "Might it be cheaper to do something to make people not want to migrate?" Perhaps it might:

http://www.samefacts.com/2015/09/international-affairs/paying-for-a-green-ethiopia/


Great post by wkg.

As technology improves, the need for it to improve more decreases (how much faster do you need Cox to download, for example).

If the utility of expanding technology begins to decrease, you're going to see even crappier GNP growth and the result will be even more stress on tax receipts, more social services, etc. Government budgets that are already a mess might feel even more pressure should tax receipts nosedive.

A negative GNP might be a good thing. I did note that the Neo Cons in the far East have been joined by the Agribusiness folks in India. A whole "PBS" documentary on the success of captalism and the failure of socialism in farming in India. The people that provided the funding for the piece were the world's biggest agribusiness's.
And for WKGINBHAM and all u technocrats I recommend you put on Kubrick's 2001 rather than watch the new movie on the guy who could have been Trumps son, Steve Jobs. I predict Trump will be the next president unless the voters really get behind Sanders. If Sanders makes it maybe he will pardon Snowden. But the why would Snowden want to live in the US?

wkg: just for U, OZY media.

Paul Krugman presented a heretical idea yesterday: Donald Trump is right.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/07/opinion/paul-krugman-trump-is-right-on-economics.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fpaul-krugman&action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=stream&module=stream_unit&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection

Of course, what Trump is right about is that the rich do need to pay higher taxes. For the cult of Grover Norquist and Perpetual Voodoo, this is the heresy. While we shouldn't argue religion with zealots, it's interesting that Trump's following among nativists hasn't been eroded as a result. It's almost as if the GOP base really does like Social Security and Medicare. What they don't like are Those People sharing the goodies. Trump gets that the GOP hoi polloi isn't really that wedded to the corporatist philosophy of the Republican establishment. Whispering nigger into the base's ear has long been a successful (and southern) strategy but when a blowhard strays off the reservation and shouts the word, you can see the sweat beads forming on Karl Rove's upper lip.

The irony here is that Republicans need Democrats protecting SS and Medicare lest their own base really connect the dots and realize that Paul Ryan really doesn't like them that much. The GOP establishment depends on its base not seeing the dots let alone connecting them. One close-to-home example: imagine Terry Dudas waking up and realizing there's cat food in her Republican dream scenario.

What IS your problem, Soleri?

Terry, when someone votes for a party that favors corporate interests over their own, people like me take note. No need to take it so personally. The GOP base is fascinating on many levels, which is why the phrase "cognitive dissonance" is often used in conjunction with it.

Dudas, since I'm a republican and coming soon to Tucson would u like me to bring u a months supply of conservative pet food. If it's good enough for me to live on should be OK for your cats.

Soleri and folks. I am unable to get the NY Times and a few of those other similar media links. But thanks anyhoo.

@Soleri re “While we shouldn't argue religion with zealots, it's interesting that Trump's following among nativists hasn't been eroded as a result.”

The common opinion of the commenters here is that Phoenix is too big. Not only are new immigrants unwanted (regardless of their point of origin – although the ones from the Midwest are found to be particularly odious) the preference is that many of the ones already here just die or move away.

Have a good day all you “nativists”.

wkg, "nativist" is not quite synonymous here with the meaning you're deriving from Zonies who disapprove of growth for its own sake, along with the bad drivers and snowbirds who follow in its wake. Rather, a closer meaning would be Real Americans who are white, "Christian", and xenophobic. Or just form a mental image of Sarah Palin, and leave it at that.

http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/there-goes-europe/

I'm going to regret answering you jerks regarding cats, their food and republicans, but here goes.

I am a senior (74-yrs-old) straight female, and vote Independent - I have for 30-yrs. Some of you were still learning to wipe your asses when I started paying attention to politics. Where do you bozos get off inserting me into your inane, psychotic diatribes? Oh yes, you're so much better than anyone who might disagree with you, or have a different point of view - true progressive A-Holes, I think you're called.
Well, Rogue, if you're going to ban me for this response, go ahead. You will save me the trouble of deleting this site from my computer lineup. It will be a late birthday present to myself.

You're still welcome, Terry.

Keep coming back Dudas. I support U in saying whatever you want. Let me know when I can buy you coffee in Tucson.
Cal 75 and working on 76.

Trump is alarming but we've seen in Europe the rise of white nationalism, so there is some concern from what I have seen that perhaps this could be a nascent political movement here, as well.

I am a conservative Christian who is alarmed by Trump and I personally do not understand why an informed evangelical would support him, given his numerous past positions which run counter to conservative values as well as his many concerning personal attributes and behavior that would seem to me to render him a poor choice as a candidate.

But I learned long ago that public discourse tends to be disheartening and I can only hope he will fade over time once the contest starts to mean something and people actually start voting.

Perhaps while we're rightfully condemning xenophobia, we should also condemn closed-mindedness, painting with a broad brush, and speaking harshly or rudely to anyone who holds a differing opinion. I don't see anything wrong with trying to engage in polite discourse with one another.

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