Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran — John McCain, channeling the Beach Boys
Republicans are dead set against President Obama's plan, worked out with Russia, China, the UK, France, Germany and Iran, to at least forestall the Islamic Republic from making nuclear weapons.
Israel doesn't like it! It's not verifiable! It won't succeed! It's not what Ronald Reagan would do!
In fact, it's exactly what Reagan would do. Dutch happily did business with Iran to finance the Contras. And as his horror of nuclear weapons grew, he came very close to making a deal with Mikhail Gorbachev to completely eliminate them.
As usual, the Republicans don't have a real alternative. It's like repealing Obamacare.
But a more apposite question is whether it is our place to deny Iran nuclear weapons?
After all, we helped Britain acquire them. China joined the nuclear club on its own. France did so, too, and then helped Israel develop a robust arsenal. Apartheid South Africa went nuclear with Israel's help, then unilaterally disarmed after Nelson Mandela took over. India got the bomb. Pakistan, too. And North Korea.
The United States had an important national interest in spending billions to help Russia secure its nukes after the breakup of the Soviet Union, and encouraging Ukraine — the third largest nuclear power — to give up its weapons of mass destruction. This was a triumph of American foreign policy.
Sure, the five permanent, nuclear-armed members of the UN Security Council say they want to stop proliferation. But they've done a lousy job in practice. China allowed its crazy client North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons — and its statement forbidding war on the Korean peninsula may not go far if Pyongyang decides to lob an ICBM at Honolulu.
History shows that if a nation state seeks to build a nuclear weapon, it's very difficult to stop it.
The Republicans want war. They sing John McCain's song. But bombing, even with the massive ordnance penetrator, would only set the nuclear program back a few years at best. We would win further hatred of the Iranian people, who haven't forgotten the CIA coup that took down their democratically elected government in 1953. We would alienate our negotiating partners in the P5+1 group.
Boots on the ground? How did Iraq turn out. Iraq's population is 36 million. Iran's is more than $78 million 78 million.
Critics of the agreement point to statements by some Iranian leaders that they will destroy Israel. But let's think this through: We got the bomb. Russia got the bomb. Through 40 years of Cold War, no nuclear exchange took place. It's called deterrence and it works.
Could this lead to a Saudi bomb and the potential for a localized nuclear war? Maybe. But we're not the world police. Trying to be so for the past 14 years has been costly and counterproductive.
We should be equally troubled by Israel and its domestic apologists trying to make Jerusalem's stubborn position equal to American national interests. It is not.
Average Iranians are educated, interested in joining the world community and like Americans. Many went to college here. They are not our enemies. Peaceful exchange will bring down the extremists much more effectively than bombing. Including our own extremists, hammers in search of the nail called endless war.
Our Front Page Editor, an old Middle East hand for the government, adds this: "Saudis crashed planes into NY and DC, not Iranians.Saudis are fucking over shale drillers (and our banks who financed them), not Iranians; Saudis financed IS2, not the Iranians."
Sidebar: Jon and the Novel story.
http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/arts/tom-zoellner-explores-why-theres-no-great-arizona-novel-at-changing-hands-in-phoenix-7544295
And Jon in the future please refer to me as Cactus Cal.
Posted by: Cal Lash | August 13, 2015 at 02:58 PM
Excellent piece Jon. I agree.
PS did you mean 78 mililon not $78 million.
Posted by: Cal Lash | August 13, 2015 at 03:03 PM
Thank you.
Posted by: Nancy Lesicka | August 13, 2015 at 03:05 PM
Sorry, Cal, but the Phoenix history is set in type. Next book, I promise.
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | August 13, 2015 at 03:09 PM
Hawkeye cal.
You can take the kid out of Iowa, but you can't take the Iowa out of the kid.
Posted by: Ruben Perez | August 13, 2015 at 03:11 PM
The Reagan comparison falls on its face.
It's completely unclear what he knew about the Iran Contra business. He may have been too lax, but it's never been shown that he was actively complicit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tower_Commission
Even if he had dropped the arms off himself, there were much different goals and objectives then and Iran was a much different place in the late 70's than it is today.
I just don't think you can take anyone's actions from 35 years ago and try to extrapolate what they would do today.
I'm fine with the Iran deal. Some progress is better than none. It's not the deal today that matters- if Iran plays ball, we're all off to the races.
The key to the deal will be the will of a subsequent America to enforce provisions when (or if) Iran cheats.
Will we hold their feet to the fire?
Posted by: INPHX | August 13, 2015 at 03:39 PM
Iran Contra was in the mid 80's
Posted by: INPHX | August 13, 2015 at 03:45 PM
You all are missing the Huffington Post headline here.
Seattle journalist declares Iranian lives are worth $ 1,
Cal caught it.
Posted by: Ruben Perez | August 13, 2015 at 04:24 PM
Getting rather prickly cal?
Posted by: Jerry McKenzie | August 13, 2015 at 07:29 PM
Jerry jus call me Cactus Cal.
In Phx glad to hear U agree with the current Iranian Deal.
But methinks your grasp of neocon military surveillance industrial complex past and present is lacking in information. Second rate lifeguard and actor, cowardly snitch and dementia president Ronnie was up to his big ears in the ongoing saga of the CIA and DEA to support dictatorships. Ollie North should have gone to jail just as should the criminals that lied their ass off to murder thousands of young Americans in the invasion of Iraq. And on and on it goes to a musical tune. Bomb bomb bomb with Senile John McCain with his magical wand
And where do the Boys have Pancho Villas head?
Posted by: cal Lash | August 13, 2015 at 10:35 PM
In my humble 75 year experience Republican IKE Eisenhower was overall a good president. Nixon had some good things going but his alcohol fled paranoia and megalomaniac tendencies brought him down. Just as eventually Democrat LBJ slipped off into depression. The Presidency seems to be somewhat a thankless job. And PS INPHX Ronnie knew about Iran/contra. And if you don't believe that then you probably should not think LBJ had a twinkling about those the terrible twosome Kennedy upstarts going down.
I want to open the skull and crossbones crypt and see if the old boys club really dies have Villas skull. Maybe Chapos in there tooooo.
Posted by: cal Lash | August 13, 2015 at 11:21 PM
Las Angeles couple hikes 10 hours on the Peralta Trail in the Superstions. 65 year old female hiker dies on the trail in 100 degree heat.
Posted by: cal Lash | August 13, 2015 at 11:41 PM
We now have to add stupid exercise enthusiasts to " only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the noon day sun" This is an unforgiving climate and we humans cannot change that.
Posted by: Mike doughty | August 14, 2015 at 06:30 AM
It's a done deal.
And a good deal...
Especially if you have Apple stock.
Young Iranians (and there are gobs of them) want iPhones.
The absolute best way to bring Iranians on board, and ameliorate their hostility, is to sell them Western goods. Bombing them only makes sense for a few American companies. It's crass and low brow. Selling them hamburgers and Fords and NFL shirts is immensely more sensical.
I see the Europeans aren't wasting any time:
http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2015/07/iran_nuclear_deal_has_companie.html
Posted by: koreyel | August 14, 2015 at 07:33 AM
What would Reagan do? If history is our guide, he would sell Iran nuclear technology and use the proceeds to reduce taxes on the rich here at home.
Snark aside, I wonder if the politicization of arcane treaties is just another aspect of our descent into the monkey cage that is now our public discourse. Our eyes glaze over before we can even begin to process relevant information. Instead, we take convenient short-cuts: Obama is Satan marching Israel to the ovens!
There's a parallel here to the way we "understand" climate change. People who can't spell "atmospheric physics" count themselves experts in an arena that devalues actual knowledge in favor of heartfelt certitude. This is America! If we believe it, it must be true!
Buffoonery on the right is taken as a sign of authenticity, which is why almost every Republican presidential candidate is now flooding the Zone of Crazy in the wake of Donald Trump's Grand Tour du China Shop. America is tired of complexity. Let's give the people what they want just as soon as we figure out a way to fleece them of their Social Security.
HL Mencken famously said "for every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong". Still, there's also this recent perspective:
"....bullshitters seek to convey a certain impression of themselves without being concerned about whether anything at all is true. They quietly change the rules governing their end of the conversation so that claims about truth and falsity are irrelevant. Frankfurt concludes that although bullshit can take many innocent forms, excessive indulgence in it can eventually undermine the practitioner's capacity to tell the truth in a way that lying does not. Liars at least acknowledge that it matters what is true. By virtue of this, Frankfurt writes, bullshit is a greater enemy of the truth than lies are."
http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7929.html
Posted by: soleri | August 14, 2015 at 07:36 AM
I bet Geronimo's skull is in there with Villa's, Cactus Cal. Cochise and Abbey were farsighted to want secret burials.
Saint Ronnie knew what was going on, but the ends justifies the means and that included flooding the good 'ole USA with cocaine and then heroin (who knew that Afghanistan would cause us so many troubles in the present!).
Iranians have a long historical sense. They are still pissed at Alexander the Great!
Posted by: Jerry McKenzie | August 14, 2015 at 08:49 AM
So if the Iranian Deal goes it means The Halliburton band will lose a profitable gig. And Roman Senator McCain will not get to sing the only song he knows. Poor John he just never made the grade to a Roman General Or Admiral like his dad and grandfather.
Posted by: cal Lash | August 14, 2015 at 10:15 AM
It's 115 out here in the Great Sonoran Desert and I think I smell and Englishman.
Posted by: cal Lash | August 14, 2015 at 10:22 AM
soleri writes:
Instead, we take convenient short-cuts: Obama is Satan marching Israel to the ovens!
Aye. That's prime-time stupid from right-wing extremists.
Left-wing extremists are equally pissed at Mr. Obama's attempts to contain ISIS. We don't have a dog in that fight they say (even as ISIS has joined up with Boko Haram in Nigeria, Africa's most populated country, and have killed 20,000+ civilians there). And they say, the US drone strikes are killing innocents, maybe even purposefully because the US govt. is such an evil thing (This last bit of sad nonsense from the heart of a left wing echo chamber).
So on the right hand Mr. Obama is not doing enough....
On the left hand he is doing way too much.
My own take is Mr. Obama is doing exactly what needs to be done. Negotiating to avoid war when possible: Giving the market place a chance to succeed in Iran. And bombing and droning ISIS fundamentalists,-- because living in peace with that particularly enemy of humanity, is simply a left-wing pipe dream. Modern Islamic fundamentalism is a virus, as deadly a disease as Ebola. It needs containing and elimination. And if one's hair isn't on fire in regards to it, pull it up out of the sand and have a look around...
Normally I would say it is one of those convenient short-cuts soleri decries to say when extremists from the left and right are equally pissed off, it means Mr. Obama must be doing the correct thing. But in this case, the observation seems to me to ring true...
Posted by: koreyel | August 14, 2015 at 10:31 AM
If you go to the previous thread you'll see the word lickspittle used in a sentence. I plan to look up the meaning later this morning.
I just read we live in an era of speculation. Every aspect of our dialogue is speculation. Since no one knows the future, nothing can be proven right or wrong.
Posted by: Ruben Perez | August 14, 2015 at 10:35 AM
Our Front Page editor had something important to say. I added it to the bottom of the column.
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | August 14, 2015 at 10:51 AM
Koreyel, climate change is an existential threat. ISIS, I suspect, is a regional challenge. I'm not an expert about it or the Middle East or even it's recent rise. But I recall how oblivious the hawks were about the dangers of military adventures. As Colin Powell warned Bush in advance of his foolhardy crusade in Iraq, "you are going to be the proud owner of 25 million people, you will own all their hopes, aspirations, and problems. You'll own it all." Privately, Powell and Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage called this the Pottery Barn rule: You break it, you own it.
Including ISIS.
I was thinking about this problem in regard to Iran. Last week I watched the Iranian movie A Separation which won the Oscar for best foreign film a couple years ago. It's a terrific family drama that also serves to highlight the internal stress in Iran between their modern, pro-Western middle-class and their traditionally religious working class. Remind you of some other nation?
Insofar as ISIS is cultural revolt against modernism, I doubt there's much we can do except work with our allies in the region who deserve better than a cabal of right-wing crazies making their lives hellish.In Iraq this would include the minorities like the Kurds and Christians. In Iran, it might advocate for the Ba'hai. In Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan, it would include women.
But you can already see the problem. Unlike the right in America, the Islamic right is ascendant with young people who are often uneducated and desperate. We can wait out the American right since obese old white people are more likely to hit the all-you-can-eat buffets than the trenches. But it's different in the Middle East.
If we're going to militarize this problem, we're going to exhaust ourselves economically and morally. As in Southeast Asia, our best intentions led to some fairly awful consequences. The fatuous Jeb Bush said yesterday that "taking out Saddam Hussein was a pretty good deal". This blindness about our own agency is maddening although typical for a Bush. Iraq is a hornet's nest precisely because it doesn't have a ruthless thug keeping a lid on things.
In an ideal world, Neocons would bear the burden and cost of their arrogance and lies. I'm not an isolationist but I don't think we can beat Islamic extremists into submission. In the end, we may have to acknowledge what we did was wrong and allow the region its inescapable collapse into hell.
Posted by: soleri | August 14, 2015 at 11:55 AM
The Front Page editor is spot on!
Posted by: Jerry McKenzie | August 14, 2015 at 12:18 PM
If I thought about the fact that Iranian hostages were released as part of ronnie's inauguration, I dismissed it as coincidence. Otherwise, I'd have to think of it as cheap, evil very cynical theatrics and PR. Then of course I'd have to bend my mind around how such an obvious coinkidink might have gotten orchestrated on behalf of the greatest American Evah. Then I'd have to bother myself with wondering why the evil mullahs' assets got unfrozen, why 243 marines were unprotected and slaughtered, and of course why we furnished arms to the same evilosity. Sure am glad it's not a democrat, otherwise I'd have to bother my beautiful mind with finding a pattern in all of this. I'm truly concerned, though, about Benghazi and e-mails. Little known fact: Ron videotaped all of his business. I present you with a leaked portion here.
https://screen.yahoo.com/president-reagan-mastermind-000000075.html
Posted by: Dawgzy | August 14, 2015 at 12:30 PM
..... oh, BTW, Israel has 150-200 nukes. Why hasn't this been mentioned ??
Posted by: BEARSENSE | August 14, 2015 at 01:23 PM
Dawgzy, thanks for the Phil Hartman clip. He was the best. I remember this one "live", and it was and remains absolutely brilliant.
One plug I'd like to give is an actually pretty good movie, The Reagans, the made-for-TV movie the right went absolutely bonkers over for insufficient hagiography. CBS lost its nerve once again and gave it to cable. Josh Brolin's Reagan is a bit recessive as anyone with early dementia might appear. Nancy, played by Judy Davis, seems to be the real president. The movie suggests it was she who pushed the arms-control agreement with Gorbachev to secure Ronnie's legacy.
As for Iran/Contra, the movie explains Reagan's obsession with the hostages in Lebanon as a facet of his hero complex going all the way back to his boyhood lifeguard days in Dixon, Ill. Clearly, he was being portrayed as out of his depth as president but also as quite likeable and charming. A lesser personality probably would have been impeached.
Posted by: soleri | August 14, 2015 at 02:24 PM
The Israeli nukes don't get mentioned be us it would give me a sad to talk about how Iranians are suicidal. It would positively crack my brain to explain why Iran might want a bomb- like a shred of deterrence? Could they feel threatened by the nuclear power in their region? But I'm getting melancholy and bored by thinking about this. Let's roll. It's worked so well so far. Evidence? What evidence?
Posted by: Dawgzy | August 14, 2015 at 02:34 PM
It's raining in Seattle after a cool, cloudy day. This used to be normal summer. Not with climate change. It has been the warmest, driest year on record. The state has declared a drought emergency.
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | August 14, 2015 at 02:39 PM
Portburg has already broken record for most days annually 90 degrees.
Posted by: Dawgzy | August 14, 2015 at 02:53 PM
This is a good primer on ISIS:
http://phasezero.gawker.com/an-intelligence-vet-explains-isis-yemen-and-the-dick-1699407909
And this:
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/06/03/isis-forces-exbaathist-saddam-loyalists/
You can trace the roots of ISIS back to the ex-Baathists from Saddam Hussein’s Regime. The links provide a great description of how ISIS started and how it’s grown into a supergroup with “one lethal AQ-inspired ideology, with an Iraqi ex-Baathist chain of command.” So, the Iraq War is a gift (from hell) that keeps on giving. Note: most of the Republican clown car supports the war and wants to go back, in some form or another. Yikes.
Posted by: D | August 14, 2015 at 06:00 PM
I was surprised that Thomas Friedman mentioned the Israeli nukes the other day. And he did so in such a way that it makes the Huckabee oven quote, instantly out of touch with reality:
http://nyti.ms/1L5cGiL
Posted by: koreyel | August 14, 2015 at 07:30 PM
soleri writes:
In the end, we may have to acknowledge what we did was wrong and allow the region its inescapable collapse into hell.
I'd be all for that. But it is beyond the region now. It has spread deep into North Africa. Boko Haram is wiring kids up with suicide vests and sending them into crowds of civilians. Where'd they learn that trick? And they've pledged unity with ISIS. Can you imagine Boko Haram overrunning Nigeria, the most populated country in Africa, while America sits primly on it's hands? I can't. Neither can Mr. Obama.
God only knows where we'd be now in Mr. Obama hadn't of acted to stopped ISIS from totally engulfing Iraq. We've stopped their forward progress and killed 10,000 of them. That's all to the good. Here's a thought experiment to try on:
If back in the 1920s Hitler had kidnapped Jewish children and sent them into Jewish neighborhoods wired with suicide vests, and then detonated them in crowds of Jews--would the world have said "whoa asshole" and done something?
I should hope so...
And if Boko Haram and ISIS are behaving this way now, infinitely worse than Hitler ever did at his inception, what can you expect of them in the future? I certainly don't want to find out. Like it or not, we have a moral obligation to stop these bastards.
Posted by: koreyel | August 14, 2015 at 07:53 PM
Israel 200 nukes and delivery systems along with thier policy of not ever leaving Jerusalem makes the US/IRAN DEAL a natural. I would like to see a young Persian financial uprising against the Ayottolas. I think a war can be won with Headphones and MP players for everyone. I am old enough to remember, " A chicken in every Pot." I'm not sure I care who runs Iraq. Between the Gulf Arab states and the rest of the Middle east Muslims should we intervene? I do think a deal should be brokered for the Kurds. And maybe a way for the Christians to lceave. Africa is the Hot spot and maybe a few drones for the Boko Haram might help. Maybe Pakistan can help us duplicate the phony take down of Osama Bin Laden.
A note for the Taliban of Afghanistan. The are now producing more poppy opium than any time in the last 3000 years. I forgot who got us into that deal?
Posted by: cal Lash | August 14, 2015 at 08:52 PM
It is awful to watch horrors unfold and feel that "we" are doing nothing. The "we" you refer to must be Civilized nation of the world as a true coalition. It can't be us(a.)The breeding ground for this has been chronic political and social instability, fed by religious fervor, to be sure, but also by a seemingly endless supply of weapons. What might young men be doing besides waging jihad? If they had a hope of a future doing things like work, play and family, they might not pick up the gun.
There Is an attitude of defiance toward the west and USA in particular. That is the root of it. We can "go in" and intensify the positive feedback. There don't appear to be good solutions.
Though I think that I see your point, Hitler and his early provocations were probably do-able. That doesn't mean that the mess we (as in USA) have fostered is do-able, at least by the same means that might have been used then. But acting on the helpless feeling in counterproductive ways will only intensify the mess.
Posted by: Dawgzy | August 14, 2015 at 09:07 PM
Israel's nukes:
http://fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/
http://fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/farr.htm
http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/nuclear-forces/israel
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | August 14, 2015 at 10:18 PM
80 or 200 nukes m It only takes on or two to take our Iran.
Posted by: cal Lash | August 14, 2015 at 10:31 PM
Is it possible Jeb and Hillary will not make the Cut. Will it be Trump and Biden. Or will Bernie surprise everyone?
Posted by: cal Lash | August 15, 2015 at 12:03 AM
Sorry for the $78 million typo. Been that kind of week. I left it in strikethrough so your jokes would still be on point.
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | August 15, 2015 at 09:47 AM
Don't explain it to us. Explain it to Huffington Post. They're the ones who've taken attention grabbing headlines to a new level.
SEATTLE JOURNALIST EQUATES ENTIRE IRANIAN POPULATION TO A CHEAP HOLLYWOOD MOVIE !!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Ruben Perez | August 15, 2015 at 11:03 AM