Note to readers

I always feel as if I let you down when I don't post two columns a week. But the reality is that my day job intrudes. Thursday is the deadline for my Sunday Seattle Times column. I also do a daily online column for the Times, as well as being a commentator for KUOW, the local NPR station. Then there are books. I have been commissioned by the History Press to write a Phoenix history.

The result: Some weeks you're not going to get two Rogue posts. This is one of them.

 

Comments

[Hattie]

Aaachoo! That's all I have to say about Seattle today. Dust and pollen are driving my sinuses crazy. Maybe I should send them to Arizona?

[cal Lash]

As I said on previous post. Congrats Jon.

[Rogue Columnist]

Thanks, Cal.

[Emil Pulsifer]

The recent publicity stunt by a mailman flying a gyro-copter onto the lawn of the White House started me thinking about Capitol security as an abstract problem.

A little research shows that the Capitol is surrounded by restricted airspace for some tens of miles, and within that is a no fly zone with a 16 mile radius centered on Ronald Reagan Washington Airport (which is about 3 miles south of downtown Washington D.C.).

Flight through the outer restricted airspace is permitted but planes must have working transponders and pilots must coordinate with air traffic controllers.

Flight in the inner no fly zone is restricted to flights given special clearance, typically government transports and emergency air vehicles (presumably police and medical transport helicopters, though I'm only guessing about that.

It is therefore possible for a civilian aircraft to fly through the outer restricted airspace on a path tangent to the inner no fly circle. That allows a flight path which doesn't point into downtown D.C. but which comes close to the border of the inner no fly zone at one point along its circular border.

A legally owned Gulfstream 650 corporate jet would probably not excite suspicion flying through the outer restricted airspace, provided it followed the rules, stayed in radio contact, and had a plausible flight plan. This would be especially true if the same aircraft had previously followed this flight path on numerous occasions without incident. The wealthy are seldom considered high profile suspects, and there are plenty of wealthy who have good reasons to jet into and out of the D.C. area.

A Gulf stream 650 can do more than 600 MPH over short distances. A flight path skirting a no fly zone tangent at the north of the city might have as little as 13 miles to cover to reach the White House or Capitol Hill. (I confess that my knowledge of D.C. geography is sketchy at best, but the no fly zone had a radius of 16 miles and is centered on an airport three miles south of downtown.)

That means it could cover the distance in just 1 minute 20 seconds.

The area is guarded by Avenger missile batteries and quick response F-16s at Andrews AFB.

However, missile defense is not automatic for the obvious reason that cleared flights as well as stray but innocent uncleared civilian flights breach the airspace fairly routinely.

So, assume the Gulfstream flies as usual on its flight path tangential to the no fly zone. It then calls in a report to air traffic control of problems with its electronic systems, perhaps cutting the audio in and out for verisimilitude. It then turns off its transponders, changes its vector, and assumes maximum speed.

At this point primary ground radar must identify the craft and radar control must report the violation of airspace up the chain of command. At some point someone must give an authorization to scramble military jets and/or for a fire-control crew of a missile battery to select a target from the Avenger system radar and enable firing.

All of this detection, reporting, confirmation, vectoring and/or travel, target identification, selection, and firing, must occur successfully within 90 seconds to avoid kamikaze attack from a corporate jet packed with jet fuel and or high explosives.

To make matters worse, plotters might employ several decoy planes simultaneously to divert attention from the real strike craft.

A Gulfstream 650 is expensive but well within the budget of highly funded organizations like Al Qaeda.

[jmav]

1, 2 or more columns per week Rogue, thank you. You have taught me a lot. An outstanding public service!

[Suzanne]

Yes, congrats Rogue!

Sarah Palin hired Schweizer (author of 'Clinton Cash') to advise her on foreign policy when she was considering a presidential run. (That is from a 2011 NYT article.)

[Ramjet]

Jon,
Try to stop and smell the coffee once in a while. Most of us here can survive on one per week OK. Looking forward to book on Phoenix History. I know a bit about that from the 40's on.

[Mike Doughty]

We are just lucky to have someone who cares enough about Phx. to write anything that might be counter to the boosterism we normally get here.Your efforts will be missed but certainly the cause is appreciated.

[Dawgzy]

I check out a lot of blogs. This is among the best- great pieces by rogue and great commentators with pretty good diversity of viewpoints. I started visiting out of curiosity about Phoenix, stayed for the very fine writing on both sides.
I just checked AZCentral's opinion on joearp. EdBoard, Roberts are bailing on him. Profiles in courage. Even montini's snarky. I just want to see the man treated using the same standards he's used on others. That's only fair, right?

[Emil Pulsifer]

Congratulations on the book deal, Mr. Talton. I have often admired your erudite, finely detailed yet narrative focused (not trivia focused) historical blogs.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Dawgzy, Arizona Republic columnists aren't the only ones bailing out on Arpaio. When right hand men like Brian Sands turn state's evidence and testify to first hand expressions of intent by Arpaio, it's game over.

[cal lash]

I repeat
can Joe serve as sheriff from jail?
Likely he would win another election if he runs.

[cal lash]

I think the fan club should go for coffee first of June or so and have pastries, talk trivia, and our elation for Jon;s new contract and his next Mapstone mystery. Ruben's buying.

[Rogue Columnist]

This 2011 column is just as relevant today. More so:

http://www.roguecolumnist.com/rogue_columnist/2011/05/why-isnt-joe-arpaio-in-jail.html

[cal lash]

Thanks for the reminder Jon. Besides and including what you wrote in that piece in 2011 I would like to reiterate that had "Democrat" St. Janet done her Job as US Attorney, Joe would have been gone a long time ago. She also insured Joes future by getting her guy appointed as the next US Attorney. So she and Democrat (election robo-caller) retired Senator Dennis Deconcini maintained their blood oath (to Joe B) and Joe A stayed in power.

[Emil Pulsifer]

I'll also agree with Dawgzy about the relatively high quality of discourse here, as well as the desirability of a (healthy) diversity of views.

"The relationships between error and true understanding are in any case too abstruse for anyone to presume to regulate them by authority. Men have no choice but to make long detours through hypotheses, mistakes, and imaginative guesses, if they are to succeed in extricating assessments which are more exact, if partly provisional: for there are few cases of complete exactness. This means that freedom of thought seems to me, of all values, one of the most essential."

-- Victor Serge, "Memoirs of a Revolutionary"

[cal Lash]

Re- Arpaio
" Nothing is more despicable that respect based on fear"
Albert Camus

[Emil Pulsifer]

Cal Lash wrote:

"I repeat can Joe serve as sheriff from jail? Likely he would win another election if he runs."

Tough call. Arizona law suspends the right of convicted felons to hold public office.

http://www.allenlawaz.com/do-companies-automatically-turn-down-potential-employees-for-felony-convictions/

However, even if Arpaio were found guilty of criminal contempt rather than the more likely civil sanctions, it isn't clear to this non-lawyer. The 11th Circuit federal court of appeals ruled a few years back that federal criminal contempt of court is neither a felony nor a misdemeanor, but rather a sui generis category. Arizona isn't part of the eleventh circuit, but a precedent set in a federal appeals court would likely hold here unless Arizona's own circuit appeals court has found otherwise. I don't think the U.S. Supreme Court has been consulted.

Just my inexpert and highly provisional opinion. Research on the mobile is too difficult for more at this time.

[wkg_in_bham]

RC: ditto the comments above. Happy for the paid gig on history book.

Thanks also for a “clean” front page (for lack of a better word). I’m on a pretty tight data plan and I’m reluctant to visit some sites. Can blow through 5-10 megs just opening the main page.

@Emil re Cali water releases. Found link below (Texas A&M Water Mgmt Science). No hard numbers, so hard to put into perspective though.

http://waterprogram.tamu.edu/latest-articles/291-california-drought-turns-political

[Rogue Columnist]

Interesting new reader comment on this post:

http://www.roguecolumnist.com/rogue_columnist/2009/06/phoenix-101-the-mormons.html

[Emil Pulsifer]

I don't see anything in the Texas A&M link about alleged dumping of California fresh water into the Pacific Ocean (as much as 20 percent of its allocation of fresh river water, claims FOX News) . Supposedly this is to reduce the temperature of the ocean (!) for the sake of some endangered species. I regard this as a Tea Party hoax gone viral (thanks to a conservative congressman's commentary on the Op-Ed page of the WSJ) and will continue to until I see some reputable source documenting this.

[wkg_in_bham]

@Emil from the article: “The bill would permanently halt efforts to reconnect the San Joaquin River to the Pacific Ocean through San Francisco Bay, and permanently reallocate water south to Central Valley farmers. It would override protections for salmon and the endangered delta smelt, which Republicans mock as a useless, tiny fish but which environmentalists see as an indicator species.”

I think there are also issues concerning the salinity of the water in the East Bay.

The part about “Supposedly this is to reduce the temperature of the ocean…” is clearly insane.

[cal Lash]

The Dam Engineers again.
Unfortunate that the inhabitants of the Americas did have a better HLS to keep out the European whores.

[cal Lash]

That should have been hordes.
Apocalyptic disease ridden engineer's.

[cal Lash]

With the thousands of New Homes being built near Benson, the Kartchner Caverns and the San Pedro river it's time to bring a Corp of engineer's in to build a new golf course. Who cares about underground cavern sites when you can use the water to smack little white balls around on green grass while drinking margaritas served by a scantily clad young hard body driving a souped up golf cart. And of course the government has been drying up the San Pedro for years at their "military intelligence" base at Sierra Vista.
Yep the planet needs more engineers.

[Emil Pulsifer]

OK, I get it now:

(1) Rivers naturally flow to the sea.

(2) Pumps that divert river water to farmland irrigation and to municipal supplies prevent that water from reaching the sea.

(3) By this definition, any failure to divert 100 percent of a river's water through pumping is tantamount to dumping fresh water into the ocean.

(4) By extension, once pumping has been put in place that diverts 100 percent of a river's water, any act that reduces the level of diversion to less than 100 percent allows some water to flow to the sea.

(5) In the case in question, 100 percent diversion of the San Joaquin River caused the last 60 miles of it (the section closest to the sea) to completely dry up, destroying the once thriving salmon fishing industry that exploited annual salmon runs from the sea upriver to their spawning grounds.

(6) Allowing enough water to flow to the sea to restore the last section of river was conceived of as a way to restore salmon fishing. (See article link below.)

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/01/local/me-san-joaquin1

[INPHX]

Emil:

Don't know that this is the smoking gun you're looking for. but this explains the California run off and the three inch fish pretty well:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/forget-the-missing-rainfall-california-wheres-the-delta-smelt-1430085510

This might help:

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2013/feb/12/delta-smelt-deaths-means-less-water-central-and-so/

http://www.sldmwa.org/31314-statement-9th-circuit-decision-overturn-2011-wanger-ruling/

It's complicated, but it seems that bottom line the survival of the fish is trumping the ability to pump more water into Southern California.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/04/150403-smelt-california-bay-delta-extinction-endangered-species-drought-fish/

[wkg_in_bham]

.@Cal: at least part of the hoard were whores.

Re: “margaritas served by a scantily clad young hard body driving a souped up golf cart.” Who could have a problem with that. Is this a great country or what?
@ all - a neat site worth checking out:

http://granolashotgun.com/

His 4/13/15 post (“Drought and “Social Engineering”” specifically addresses Cali water problems.

@Emil: glad you could find a site you could have confidence in (L. A. Times). Read the attached article. Supposedly a straight-news item. But really it was an op/ed.

@All: Don’t want to get into this now. But we’ll no doubt revisit the immigration thing again. I don’t know how you can think about immigration without considering the food and environmental aspects (among many others).

[Emil Pulsifer]

I've no idea what wkg might be referring to as an attached article. The LA Times story is interrupted by a commercial ad by a salmon fishing charter. The news article continues beneath. I'm on mobile

Thanks to INPHX for the links, which I will read.

[Emil Pulsifer]

INPHX, the WSJ piece is commentary not news
The Natl. Geo. article looks good and I saved it for offline reading.

The original purpose of the water releases doesn't seem to have anything to do with smelt.

[cal Lash]

I'm for the fish.

[Emil Pulsifer]

P.S. I agree that the LAT article I linked to is upbeat and not balanced in its selection of sources. But if you check the URL you'll see it's just a local news announcement not a full news articles dealing with statewide water issues. I used it because it was contemporaneous with the first release of water and because the reporter gave the purpose of the river restoration at a time when smelt were not even an issue.

[Mark in Scottsdale]

Exciting news about the Phoenix history book. Please keep us posted, I look forward to purchasing it.