Borderline personality disorder

Here's the way the media see things. "House Republican Flailing Over Border Bill Drags On," from Daily Kos. "House GOP Abandons Border Crisis Bill Amid Conservative Opposition," from Talking Points Memo. The New York Times writes:

Many Republicans worried that leaving for the break without passing any border legislation would be damaging to them politically in the midterm elections, and vowed to stay as long as was necessary to reach a compromise within their own ranks.

The House may pass some kind of bill, but the meme, among some smart journalists, rests on some questionable assumptions.

One, that Republicans want to make a constructive response to the "border crisis" of the moment. Two, that the GOP is terrified that it must address this and other immigration issues or lose the future to changing demographics. Thus, failure to "do something" is a Republican defeat. Three, that there is a split within the Republican Party that has any real meaning.

I addressed the third point in a previous post. Today, I want to explore the first two assumptions.

Anyone who has been paying attention to Arizona politics for the past decade understands the reality of Republican border and immigration politics.

Sowing fear of immigrants, particularly illegal Hispanic immigrants, has proved highly profitable for the GOP. This is not only true in Arizona, where no political price was paid for SB 1070 and Arpaio's "sweeps," but nationally in the states of the New Confederacy. In fact, the result was increased political power.

There is no small amount of hypocrisy and cynicism in GOP calculations. But the party's stance — whatever the theater of "internal divisions" — appeals to deep-seated fears among its base of whites, and especially older whites.

Some are bigots. Others don't even realize they are pushing for continued white supremacy. Still others use illegal immigration and a "browner" America as a proxy for the destruction of the middle class. Here, the Republicans have masterfully shifted the focus of rage away from the real culprits: the oligarchy and bad policies such as tax cuts, federal austerity and bad trade deals.

So even if some Republican strategists and (quietly) a few pols would prefer a more constructive approach, doing so would alienate the base. And in a party whose policies are mostly out of touch with a majority of potential voters, the energizes base is all important.

As as result, I have always been skeptical of the notion that Republicans must join Democrats and President Obama in "comprehensive immigration reform." The status quo is better for Republicans (and many of their business allies that like a cheap and fearful illegal immigrant workforce). Serious concerns and tradeoffs involving immigration and border issues are lost amid all the WHAT PART OF ILLEGAL DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND!!! fever.

Similarly, the media conceit that Republicans will go the way of the Whigs if they don't make concessions to attract Hispanic voters isn't convincing. Everything from gerrymandered state legislative and U.S. House districts to voter suppression measures and hapless Democrats ensure that Republicans can keep de facto control for many years to come.

Two consecutive presidential election losses has done nothing to cause more than a handful of GOP wonks to take stock. The party has become more extreme. And its tight discipline and true-believer dogma makes it effective. It can destroy every Obama policy initiative — and then blame Obama for getting nothing done. Apparently a majority of Americans believe them.

 

Comments

[Don McArthur]

My working theory about GOP/Tea Party planning is that demographic trends will preclude them from winning national office unless they morph into something they are not interested in becoming. So, their game plan is to abandon realistic Presidential candidacies, frustrate and obstruct the act of governance at the national level, achieve supermajorities in the many states where they can, and rely on SCOTUS and the 10th Amendment to eventually allow them to carve out a virtual Confederate theocracy to their liking.

[cal Lash]

McArthur, I agree!

Jon Said, and I agree this has been going on strongly since Obama was elected and even stronger since his second election. In Arizona the kook's just keep running for every office possible.
"Similarly, the media conceit that Republicans will go the way of the Whigs if they don't make concessions to attract Hispanic voters isn't convincing. Everything from gerrymandered state legislative and U.S. House districts to voter suppression measures and hapless Democrats ensure that Republicans can keep de facto control for many years to come."

[cal Lash]

WKG, left you a message on Killing and Religion back on No Justice, No Peace.
Read Facetious!

[Trotsky]

The Tea Party is the GOP's smoke screen for doing exactly what the party leaders want. The GOP wants to make sure Obama fails and goverment appears incompetent. The loss of progress and harm to millions of Americans from unemployment, lack of health care, inadequate education and needless military engagements is of no consequence to the Republican Party.
What is important to the GOP is to retain disproportional political power through unrestrained political contributions and other privileges accorded the wealthy few. Race, religious issues and immigration, among others, are political diversions to maintain or enhance the political power structure based upon wealth.

Immigration fever is less about race and more about playing upon the fear of change that immigrants represent to those Americans who exist in sheltered monocultural parts of the US. Skin color differences of course never hurt helping those who want to create a climate of fear in the fundamentally racist nation of the USA.

[cal Lash]

Trotsky very well said.

Off subject whats your take on Frida?

[Petro]

Why, it's almost like the GOP are against the people of the United States!

[cal Lash]

Petro do U think the GOP will adopt Honor Killing?
Like knocking off "RHINOS" .

[cal Lash]

Since we did Emil ' s deal on Isreal/Palastine, how about a post on the Russian/Ukraine affair. Starting with the ridiculous Crimean war.

[cal Lash]

Playing to the Kooks and filling the Democratic coffers.
http://www.aol.com/article/2014/08/01/house-oks-bill-to-address-border-crisis/20940872/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk1%26pLid%3D510156

[cal Lash]

Crimean war:
All roads lead back to Jerusalem.

[Rogue Columnist]

Cal,

It doesn't go back to the Crimean War, but here's a decent read:

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-maps-out-the-kremlin-s-plan-for-a-re-divided-world

[cal Lash]

Jon,
Crimean war, Russia and the Ukraine.
"The war had a permanent impact. Because nationalist movements were incited by the war, the present-day states of Ukraine, Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and regions such as Crimea and the Caucasus all changed in small or large ways due to this conflict.[9] Russia was seriously humiliated but it survived, and launched a reform program to remedy its glaring economic, social and military weaknesses.[10]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War

[Ruben]

Was it common knowledge that they are building a fourth reactor at Palo Verde?

A dude working out there informed me of that a couple of days ago.

[mike doughty]

Anybody remember "We had to destroy the village to save it"?Read Krugman on Jon's link and it makes sense what Republicans are doing.

[cal Lash]

In the Bi-Polar House of representatives the Maniacs have succeeded in subduing the passive. As the world turns a noisy Kook Spring is in the making. Which side of the barricades will U find yourself on?
Ruben are you still downwind from Palo Verde, as is the Valley of the Sun? As the droughts continue will there be enough water to cool the reactors? The location of the plant is where the ground water use has caused sinking. Sinking even before the built Palo Verde.

[cal Lash]

Mike the current political insanity reminds me of some phrases, "Take no prisoners, Naplam, Scorched earth."
The planets humans have disposed of negotiation and is on path to killing is the only answer.

Front line has two documentaries out on Syria on PBS, One dealing with Children. It brought back memories of the child in Vietnam that survived a Napalm attack.
https://www.google.com/search?q=little+girl+on+fire+vietnam&rlz=1C1CHWA_enUS566US566&espv=2&tbm=isch&imgil=FB8JxBRMZaFtNM%253A%253BL54bv1onB3xoeM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fnews.bbc.co.uk%25252F2%25252Fhi%25252Fasia-pacific%25252F8678478.stm&source=iu&usg=__Wtd2GzfllWm3vBRD1G2URAIXgyo%3D&sa=X&ei=bLXeU466Gov-oQSYuoGICw&ved=0CDIQ9QEwAg&biw=1376&bih=643&dpr=0.9#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=W8Ah2H43FIsRpM%253A%3Bj2uTVauyp9sRVM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fi.dailymail.co.uk%252Fi%252Fpix%252F2012%252F06%252F01%252Farticle-0-136433DA000005DC-963_634x406.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%252Fnews%252Farticle-2153091%252FNapalm-girl-photo-Vietnam-War-turns-40.html%3B634%3B406

[Emil Pulsifer]

Mr. Talton hits the bullseye once again.

Most of the media employs very broad, vague arguments to arrive at the conclusion that Republicans are committing political suicide by refusing to pass comprehensive immigration reform.

They note that there is a large wave of Hispanic children beginning to reach voting age.

What they fail to note is how many of these are residents of voting districts already dominated by Democrats, and thus unlikely to take legislative control from Republicans in other districts.

They also make the dubious assumption that coming of voting age equals registering to vote, and on top of that, taking an active part in congressional legislative elections.

Finally, there is the timing of the aging of this demographic cohort to be considered.

Republicans have plenty of money to pay private research firms to assess these factors, not on the basis of vague arguments, but district by district in concrete terms, and to report on the overall effect as well.

Meanwhile, unless and until new Hispanic voters threaten the Republican Party, they have to play to their own base: and the base of the Republican Party is in large part anti-immigration reform. They want fences and tough talk.

Finally, there is the question of how much credit Republicans can manage to get from comprehensive immigration reform. This has largely been a Democratic endeavor. Are they willing to alienate their base, when they don't need to yet, just to get a little of the Democrats' reflected glory to rub off on them?

[koreyel]

Some bold predictions

Obama will "free" the Hispanic slaves by granting work visas to many millions of them who must meet a very carefully chosen set of criteria. The rules will be firm but fair-minded.

This will lead to impeachment articles being drawn up by red-faced (raging) Republicans.

Impeachment will not succeed, but will fire up the Democratic base going into the 2016 elections. Many more Hispanics will enter the voting pool because of the impeachment attacks. I see a Democratic landslide with the House and Senate going Democratic and Hillary winning the presidency.

You can quote me on that...

Obamacare will continue to thrive under Hillary as well the EPA rules on carbon dioxide containment, gay marriage, and gender equity.

The Republicans are on the wrong side of history on all these issues. And as the first poster suggested, they can only try to gum up the works and hold back the flow.

That's a sisyphean task doomed to failure.
Nobody can hold back the future...

They will be buried by the humanity's unrelenting forward flow into global science and global clean energy. Which is happening at ever-increasing rates even as I type...

[cal Lash]

Koreyel Good post
and
they will keep coming
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/03/world/americas/hope-dwindles-for-hondurans-living-in-peril.html

[Rogue Columnist]

This makes my point about how the GOP isn't in danger because of its reliance on the white vote:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-increasing-reliance-on-white-voters-may-not-spell-electoral-doom-just-yet/2014/08/03/04f0c85c-1b21-11e4-ab7b-696c295ddfd1_story.html?hpid=z2

“Given that whites still make up about three-quarters of the voters in the nation and will likely be the clear majority for decades to come, there is every reason to believe that whites will have a real say in who governs.”

[koreyel]

A major mystery...

This makes my point about how the GOP isn't in danger because of its reliance on the white vote...

The real question is will the GOP be able to hang on to all those white voters?

One of the great unspoken conundrums of our time is how the white race, which virtually invented the scientific method, and then successfully nurtured the model of Big Science from 1950 to 2000, has turned its back on the most successful tool in human history.

So I would say unto you:

Given that the white race pretty much invented Big Science, how sustainable is it that they will abandon it forever? Keep in mind the GOP is increasing entrenching itself in anti-science policy. To vote Republican today means to doubt and slander the most successful tool in human history.

My own thoughts on this: I think it is inevitable the white race will return to believing in reason, fact-sharing, and the scientific model in general.

This will take time, but it will happen. Once again white children will be encouraged to study hard and make something of themselves in the Sciences and Engineering.

Basically, the Republicans just need to lose a few more presidential elections to realize that bashing Big Science on the one hand, while you inject yourself with synthetic insulin derived from re-engineered bacteria genes with the other, is non-sustainable in the 21st century.

Like I said in my preceding post: Republicans are on the wrong side of history on this issue. That's a powerful flow that can't be successfully resisted. Ultimately Republicans will realize this. But again: it will take time...

[Jerry McKenzie]

I'm waiting to see what happens during the upcoming midterm elections. By all rights, the Republicans should get a bloody nose at minimum, but it all depends on Democrats, independents, and minorities turning out to vote. Are they outraged enough to do that?

The AZ Democratic Party is running probably one of the most unified and electable slates in years (if not decades). Will AZ flip to Blue? The next election will tell.

[Rogue Columnist]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-gop-senate-forecast/

[Jerry McKenzie]

Still hoping Nate Silver will be wrong (but I will not bet on it!).