Economic report card

I arrived back in Phoenix to find the local newspaper editorializing, "Now is the time to invent a new Arizona." I thought the "new Arizona" was what came together to put St. Janet in power and had since been cleansed from the capitol by the Kookocracy. Anyway, on a Page One snippet (the highly formatted "product" is full of "snippets") we read, "Arizona stands on the threshold of a shimmering future...This place is redolent of change — Arizona is primed for progress." While it talks of "lift(ing) off the dead weight of the Great Recession and ... start(ing) now to ambitiously reinvent our state," the overall tone of the package is very cheerleader-y. No edge. Kid gloves. The reliable developer-economist Elliott Pollack is quoted. Gov. Jan Brewer is given a column. The status quo smiles. Everything's fine.

No disrespect. The people that remain there are nice folks doing the best they can within the constraints of the huge corporate owner, right-wing extremists and Real Estate Industrial Complex. But the Arizona Republic under Sue Clark-Johnson had a few years of sterner stuff, when I and others wrote seriously about the state's opportunities — and the challenges it would take to achieve them. We had a few successes: ASU downtown, the Phoenix Convention Center, T-Gen, Science Foundation Arizona, all-day kindergarten and light rail (WBIYB). But the moment was fleeting, the opposition ferocious and the real progress was stymied or rolled back. It has been a decade since Mary Jo Waits of a more muscular Morrison Institute wrote the Five Shoes Waiting to Drop report. While it helped spur some action back then, the rise of the Kookocracy stopped it. All shoes dropped. As Waits repeatedly warned, "Arizona will become the Appalachia of the 21st century."

Back in the 1980s, when the Republic was independent, publisher Pat Murphy led similar efforts to get the city and state's attention. Powerful civic leaders — and Phoenix once had them — used the 1990-91 crash to form a new economic strategy and go after high-wage clusters. In every case, the growth machine overwhelmed reform. Why should the Great Recession, which hit Phoenix worse than most places, be any different. But my intention today is a deeper examination of where the state and metro actually stand.

• In a new Brookings Institution report on exports, metro Phoenix ranked 17th out of the top 100 metropolitan areas in the value of goods and services it sold overseas. As the 13th largest metro area by population, one could say, "so far, not so bad." But a couple of important footnotes: It ranked only 64th in export "intensity," the degree to which exports contribute to overall output. Also, it underperforms its population peers (Seattle at 6; metro Detroit, 8; Minneapolis, 14; San Diego, 16) and even some smaller, high-wage metros (Portland, 11). Also, exports are heavily dependent on legacy industries: Semiconductors and aircraft/aircraft parts. These were brought to Phoenix by leadership of an earlier era.

Arizona's exports in 2012 stood at $18.4 billion vs. $11.9 billion in 2002. Adjusted for inflation, that's mediocre growth at best (Washington, with a similar population, posted $75.6 billion vs. $34.7 billion a decade earlier). Arizona's exports to its largest trading partner, Mexico, were only 6.3 billion, little more than Washington state. Oregon, with about 2.6 million fewer people, matched the value of Arizona's exports. This matters all the more considering that exports have been one of the few areas of growth in this dismal recovery

• The state's unemployment rate climbed to 8.7 percent in August from 8.4 percent in July. Joblessness was already higher here than nationally, but if this holds it will place Arizona among the highest rates in the country. In the second quarter, state joblessness was 15.7 percent using the U-6 measure which counts part-timers and discouraged workers.

Most of the jobs created since the end of the recession have been in low-wage sectors, and with Arizona already a low-wage state, the pain must be worse here. (And, no, purchasing power is not substantally greater in metro Phoenix). As of the second quarter, employment in metro Phoenix remained 7.2 percent below its peak, among the worst showings of the 100 largest metros. And remember, the labor force has grown since the peak.

• Figures don't lie, but liars figure. So it is with the so-called recovery of the state's pathologically dominant industry: Laying down and selling tract houses. From the trough of the downturn to the second quarter of this year, metro Phoenix house prices rose 18.3 percent, the best in the nation. But these are percentages, and naturally they look good coming off a very low baseline. Indeed, house prices were still 48 percent below the fourth quarter 2006 peak.

Although the housing industry has healed somewhat, much of it is coming from distortions that will lead to future bubbles, such as hedge funds and private equity buying empty or foreclosed houses to rent out and then bundle the proceeds into securities to sell on Wall Street. Yes, some building is happening in the affluent suburbs. But the old housing boom is not back, is not coming back. All the wishing, cheerleading, misleading numbers and intimidation of fact-telling won't change it.

• Last week's Census report showed metropolitan Phoenix with the second worst poverty rate among the top 25 metro areas, 17.4 percent. The city of Phoenix continued to be the widening donut hole, with 24 percent living below the federal poverty line. Arizona's rate in 2012 was 18.7 percent, which would make it the fifth worst in the nation. All these measures are significantly worse than in 2000.

• Both the state and its metro areas have suffered falling and low per-capita income relative to the national average since the 1980s. Arizona ranked 41st among the states in 2012, slipping from 32nd in 2007. According to one study, Phoenix and Tucson incomes have been lagging for 40 years. The same trouble and trend is found in median household income. The numbers are even more profound when Phoenix is stacked up against high-wage/high-performance cities and metros.

And don't believe the brush-off that living costs are lower, therefore it all balances out. In 2011, Arizona's regional price parity was 98.6, with the national average of 100. Thirty two states were as affordable or cheaper than Arizona. Living costs are higher still in metro Phoenix, and many remote towns. And don't fall for the perennial Bob Robb column trying to wish this data away and using a statistical trick of fast percentage growth for a limited period (this was flashier when more people were coming to Arizona, hence the appearance of growth but really just bouncing off a low baseline).

What all this points to is a low-wage economy with plenty of working poor, and it's not getting better. I started writing about this in 2000, and the local-yokels were defensive and denying, as usual. Then the Greater Phoenix Economic Council commissioned a study and at its in-house unveiling, I am told that people gasped and murmured "My god, Talton's right." The post-1991 cluster strategy had failed for lack of sustained focus. Not that this realization did any good. The "drunk on growth" mentality, as the first GPEC President Ioanna Morfessis put it, continued and continues still. In addition to an economy based on low-wage, low-skill jobs, slow growth hurts, too. Despite having (on paper, at least) the 15th largest gross metropolitan product, Phoenix came in 83rd in growth. This partly drives the poisonous infighting over a limited pie in the metro area, with suburbs drawing assets from Phoenix, and even one part of the city trying to bushwhack another — because the pie isn't growing fast enough.

• Startups are barely a factor in metro Phoenix, a serious impediment to competitiveness. For example, last year's Global Startup Ecosystem Index listed Seattle fourth in the world. Phoenix wasn't on the list. Phoenix consistently fails to draw the amount of venture capital of its high-performing rivals. This is a big reason, although not the only one, that Phoenix can't match the technology prowess of competing cities such as Austin or San Diego (tellingly, neither of which consider lackluster Phoenix a competitor).

• Nor have the "business-friendly" policies of the Kookocracy yielded especially strong results, despite the attention that the latest call center or warehouse gets. Everything I have written above points to the failure of the right. But there's also a useful interactive map from the Census Bureau showing the number of businesses in each state. For its population, Arizona performs poorly. For example, the state has 130,305 businesses, but supposedly left-wing (and similar population size) Washington state has 173,511. Colorado, with fewer people, a Democratic governor and the commie hive of Planet Boulder, has 150,889. And, as we have discussed often here, Phoenix has lost the major headquarters and powerful moneyed stewards that are essential to progress.

• With the lowest percentage of adults over 25 with bachelor's degrees or higher among major metros, Phoenix is not a significant player among what Richard Florida calls "the Knowledge Metros" that are not just winners post-recession, but best positioned for the future. Without a true big-city downtown and density, Phoenix is not drawing the level of young talent it needs. ASU is a fine asset, but not enough, especially with the continuing brain drain.

I could keep laying out the case, but I am mindful of your time and patience. I write this not because I "hate Arizona," but because people need a fact-based, clear-eyed view of how the state and city stand. Then, perhaps some responses can be formulated. Because the inaction, policy blunders and denial of the past 20 years won't help. The selective statistics. The comparing Phoenix against itself or a "peer" Fresno or El Paso. The business-unfriendly extremism. The illusion that "average" is good enough in today's world or the attitude of "let us alone in the sun." The world won't let us alone. A metropolis the size of Phoenix is either competing on a world-class level or it is failing.

The Five Shoes have fallen. A closet-full awaits.

 

Comments

[phxSUNSfan]

It is also interesting to note that the metro areas with the highest rates of poverty have the largest Latino populations. I am biased here, but to me this means something a little different than the creation of the "Appalachia of the 21st Century." A small correction before I move on: Phoenix is tied for the 4th highest poverty rate among the 25 largest metro statistical areas (MSA)—not 2nd—with cities like Miami, Los Angeles, and Riverside-San Bernardino outpacing Phoenix in both percentage of people in poverty and growth of percentage of people in poverty. There are 5 other large metro areas with similar rates of poverty as well. Cities and metro areas like Seattle, which are mostly White, do not have the same complications and are not comparable in terms of demography. Seattle’s poverty rate of 11.7% is only 5.7 percentage points lower than the rate in Phoenix—this despite Phoenix being nearly 50% Latino whereas Seattle is only 6.3% Latino.

I believe that despite a large segment of the Latino population coming from lower income households, this group will prevent cities like Phoenix from becoming regions of backward underdevelopment like Appalachia. I believe this to be true for a variety of reasons: for one, Latinos are starting to show positive trends in troubling statistics that negatively and disproportionately affected this group in the past. Rates of teen pregnancies are dropping, educational attainment is on the rise and this increasingly tolerant community shows it has the ability to change with the times. For these reasons I consider Latinos part of a resilient community. Latino and mixed neighborhoods in Phoenix, even Maryvale, are vibrant hoods and even if there are those that disparage it as a linear slum, it is home to an increasing number of Latino businesses and organizations… and most importantly, it is home.

One thing that does worry me about the growing Latino population in Arizona is the lack of support and representation at the state level. One bad thing to recently come out of the statehouse is the decision by Brewer to deny driver’s licenses to immigrants granted deferred action from deportation. This is evil and I hope it is overturned by the courts. One good thing to come out of the statehouse is the passage of “Obamacare” legislation and participation in the health insurance exchange (Health Insurance Marketplace). Latinos are uninsured at a higher rate than the general population; therefore, the ACA is an important tool for Latinos as it will allow them to seek proper care when needed. Good health is sacrosanct to this segment of the population since remaining healthy means they remain employed and employable. This is of the utmost importance for those employed in segments of the economy requiring manual labor.

One of my biggest frustrations with living in Arizona is not so much who has been elected here, but the fact that Latinos aren’t helping their cause. If Latinos participated at rates similar to those of other groups (e.g. Mormons and old retirees in Sun City) republicans wouldn’t stand a chance in this state, much less metro Phoenix and Maricopa County. I want to hold my fellow Latinos culpable for the state of our city and Arizona. I want us to do something about it so that we can increase rates of success for all youths. I believe that this is likely with higher rates of participation in the coming election cycles. This makes Arizona different from the South in that Latinos have yet to influence the direction of state, unlike poorer Whites in the South who are aligned with extreme right-wing priorities.

[cal Lash]

Interesting piece Jon. A little technical for me, as was Phxsunfans response but I think I caught the drift. Last train to Lompoc. Before U all get to intent on “more” I suggest a Google of NRDC for Arizona and particularly Maricopa County. Phxsunfan may I suggest in order to stimulate your “Hispanics” you might want to move to Mexicans with a capital M. And maybe a couple of days with Alfredo Gutierrez at Fair Trade Coffee café or The Portland might assist you in help you see a bigger picture about the Mexican political movement.
And Emil, C U at the Bill Bryson event.

[cal Lash]

Off topic, the news from Egypt. Army Arrests president and bans his political party.
Next:American Military Arrests Obama and bans Democratic Party.
Tea Party dances in the street and all citizens are required to carry AK 47's and go to Christian Churches.

[phxSUNSfan]

Cal, the only thing about alienating other Latinos by using "Mexican" is that it creates a disconnect between the various Latino communities instead of bringing them together. While it is true that most of the Latinos in Arizona are of Mexican descent, is it unwise to label all under one nationality. I also am aware that Mexican-Americans (Chicanos) whose families have been in the U.S. for generations do not always identify themselves as Mexican. Many do not even know what Mexico is like.

[cal Lash]

Phxsunfan, Spain is Hispanic and it plundered and raped the indigenous folks in Central and South America and created Mestizo's.
I have been in Arizona since 50 and worked los campos always with Mexicans.
Even my most red neck Republican Mexican friends since high school and even now still refer to themselves as Mexicans not Hispanics. Actually they chuckle and get a slight grin on their face when they hear that word. To me Hispanic Power sounds weak to the sound of Mexican Power. And its scary to those pale lilly gringo faces at the Arizona Legislator.

[cal Lash]

Phxsunfan how do U define Chicano? I find the Wikepida definition lacking in substance. What the H is wrong with Mexican?
The terms Chicano/Chicana (also spelled Xicano/Xicana) are used when referencing Mexicans who grew up in the U.S. However, these terms have a wide range of meanings in various parts of the world. The term became widely used during the Chicano Movement, mainly among Mexican Americans, especially during the movement's peak in the late 1960s and early 1970s.[1]

Though Chicano was often used to refer to anyone with a Mexican American background, the users at the time understood it to be mainly applicable to the Tejano community. Other terms that are used interchangeably with Chicano are Mexican Americans, Hispanics, and Latinos. Despite its wide spread use, there are arguably negative connotations associated with the usage of Chicano and these alternatives serve to avoid those feelings when used in both formal and informal conversation.[1]

[phxSUNSfan]

Cal, you won't find Spaniards referring to themselves as Hispanic. Hell you'll find Spaniards who refuse to call themselves Spaniard (e.g. Cataláns, Euskaldunak—the Basque peoples). Hispanic is a word now used to describe more than Mexicans as well. I don't really have a preference between Latino or Hispanic, I believe both are fitting umbrella terms. I also don't think, really speaking for myself here, that our goal is to scare Whites. The goal is to prepare all of us for inevitable change. It is also not so easy for Latinos to use race (or more fittingly) skin color as a descriptor for ourselves. My family ranges in skin color from pale white to browns as dark as many "Blacks." Many Latinos are in fact, Black and are part of many larger communities and nationalities.

[Drifter]

Great article phxSUNSfan!

[Drifter]

Same for you Rogue.

[phxSUNSfan]

Cal, you'll find Chicano is mostly used in the Southwest and California. Like the explanation in the definition you found, most self-described Chicanos are Mexican-Americans whose families have been in the U.S. for generations. One reason Chicano came into use was that many Mexican-Americans in the past found themselves alientated from both "real" Mexicans and "true" Americans. They used this term to identify their own culture and their unique communities. Heavy use of Spanglish also tends to set this group apart. Mexicans and Chicanos have not always seen eye-to-eye and there have been conflicts between the two in the past. In a way, you might say that labeling Mexicans and Chicanos as one in the same is similar to mistaking Canadians for Americans.

[Sanjeev Ramchandra]

Check out my plan to restructure the Arizona University System to provide for greater accessibility, affordability, and accountability to a public university education for many more Arizonans while breaking-up the ASU monopoly within Greater Phoenix.

It does this by merging the ASU West & Polytechnic campuses into an independent, "medium-cost" & moderate research state university that is then housed at the Polytechnic campus location while transforming the West campus into an independent, "low-cost" & non-research state university with its own complete set of workforce-oriented, academic degree programs on site.

Click on my name below which links to my website for the details of my strategic plan:

[eclecticdog]

cal, 'mericans would be required to carry AR-15s!

When I was at East High in the 1970s there was a Chicano Power movement. I have met US citizens of Mexican descent who have had unpleasant run-ins with native Mexicans.

Mexico was also a part of the African slave trade, but not as much as the US or the Carribean or South America, because Mexican natives were also enslaved and didn't die off in the numbers of those other places. Either they are much hardier stock (most likely) or the Spanish were kind overlords (unlikely).

[morecleanair]

Good job Jon! I keep "5 Shoes" on my desktop, thinking that it deserves to be a live document vs a mothballed relic of Morrison's insight.

[climatehawk]

It's a shame that with all the good info in the post that the comments are almost all focused on the "Latino" issues. I think the more important take-away is that the GOP is incompetent at business creation and job creation, regardless of their non-stop campaigning on those issues. We've had a one-party state for way too long and we're paying the price for it. The Thomas/Arpaio circus cost the taxpayers millions and was not a real business attractor, either. It's not going to get better until we get some grownups in charge.

[phxSUNSfan]

Climatehawk, in order to address any of the info in the article, you have to address the "'Latino' issues" because they can't be uncoupled in Arizona. Even in 2001 when Five Shoes Waiting to Drop was written, Latino youths accounted for "36 percent of those under 18 years of age." 12 years later, you can be sure that the 36% figure has increased. My comments also weren't meant to be all inclusive, or the final word, regarding the issues.

[ptb]

phxSUNSfan makes an excellent observation that adds greatly to this discussion. The fact remains that a huge segment of our population remains forgotten in most of these circles, whether regarded as Latino, Hispanic, or any less generalized terms. According to the census, those who identify as "Hispanic or Latino" make up about a third of our state and county populations, or about 41% of Phoenix and 47% of my part of Phoenix (SoMo-Laveen), or conversely only about 9% of Scottsdale.

While the kooks are all too happy to discuss localized economic costs of immigration in much cruder terms that ultimately identify all who might speak Spanish as a "problem" to be solved, we get distracted from remembering how this segment has long been something of a resilient backbone for our community and economy. Immigration has been positively tied to our state's economic growth cycles, whether from California, Canada, or Mexico. Plus, I'd argue that while the burbs go through their boom and bust cycles of growth, our more established neighborhoods have sort of kept chugging along in recent years -- hindered almost exclusively by the shock waves created by our region's boom and bust cycles. This is as true of central Scottsdale as it is of south Phoenix, which are demographically different places, but each has a sense of place for those who call it home.

Several years ago, when Local First Arizona took off as a brilliant maneuver to bring together our truly local businesses (a grossly under-appreciated group when it comes to anything besides construction contractors), Kimber Lanning and her team went after clusters of success from which the organization could rapidly grow. My first thought other than to praise LFA's successful outreach to local restaurant clusters and aggressively hit the statewide speaking/educating circuit, was to question the group's outreach to the Latino business community. Behold, my question was answered in short order with Fuerza Local, a distinct but non-exclusive offshoot of LFA that is aimed specifically at this community.

While we may not have the catalytic presence of VCs that many other metros offer, we do have some very dedicated groups like these that brighten my outlook for our city. As we continue to support their efforts and draw greater awareness to them, my hope is that those who are truly invested in our city/metro (and the ranks continue to grow) will become even more emboldened by their successes. This translates into greater political and economic power and offers the opportunity for a shift in our state's power base, back from the isolationist burbs.

We already see the effects of positive change, being expressed as those suburban minded folks trying to either replicate or steal our little seeds of growth -- to which I'd say, just keep chugging along and invite them back into the fold. No need to be defensive as long as we know we're winning. As cognitive dissonance continues to erode the story of how much better AZ's suburban living is than living near the core, others will come and take part as well, whether via our traditional growth mechanisms or simply from folks coming "back home". That means VCs, too, eventually. We just have to keep planting the seeds and nurturing growth where we know we want and need it for long term prosperity. The time to stop playing catch-up is now -- let the technocrats play at that game as we keep forcing their attention back toward the community they serve.

[climatehawk]

phxSunsfan, you're quite correct about the Latino issues and my comment was not meant to dismiss that. It's just that the overall management of the state is rotten, and the Latino issues are reflecting that. Until we recognize that the state GOP is incompetent at governing and fix that, we won't make much progress on any of our issues. That is not a suggestion that we shouldn't try, of course, but having the current GOP is like dragging an anchor while we try to improve things.

[eclecticdog]

We already know the Kooks are incompetent. It is necessary to turn out the folks against them to improve AZ governance (or wait until the Kooks die - which could happen).

[ptb]

Working within the system proves arduous when this is how the kooks' thought leaders set the tone:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/23/fox-news-children-of-the-corn_n_3976074.html

[phxSUNSfan]

One way to limit and reverse the kookification is to increase Latino participation. I have volunteered for many drives to register Latinos (and other minorities) and to encourage them to send in their ballots or to go to the polls. Many of these registration drives also include neighborhoods where younger, more diverse populations live (like gayborhoods near Latino communities) and the same story is given for not taking the time to vote. Many of the younger, non-Hispanics in these communities are new to Arizona or moved to the Central City after high school. Their first mistake is to avoid politics because "it is too divisive."

I am still surprised by the number of Latinos (legal and able to vote) who have chosen not to be counted because they don't think their participation matters. If they only knew they weren't outnumbered, especially in metro Phoenix, and that there is a large segment (nearly 50% of registered voters) of the non-Hispanic population that shares many of their views and concerns things would look different.

[cal Lash]

The politicians that dominate Arizona and Utah are not likely to go away. they continue strongly at controlling "everything" from school boards to the state house. I suggest regardless of Hispanic and democrat and libertarian voters U still need 10 to 15 percent of "conservative" votes to change things in Arizona.

Watch they are going to build us another Freeway. (but young illegal immigrants will be denied drivers licenses) Watch who the contracts go to and then research who owns these companies.

[phxSUNSfan]

Cal, that might be true in some districts around the state but where the impact would be felt significantly is in federal elections, Maricopa County elections (think the Office of the Sheriff and County Attorney), and elections in urban centers in Arizona where most Latinos live (Phoenix, Tucson, Yuma, Flagstaff, etc.). Did you hear about Sheriff Joe being kicked out of The Hispanic Women’s Corporation convention in Phoenix. Apparently, he's dumbfounded as to why this would happen:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/23/joe-arpaio-latina-conference_n_3975456.html?utm_source=concierge&utm_medium=onsite&utm_campaign=sailthru%2Bslider%2B

"Sheriff Joe Arpaio isn’t welcome at this Latina conference.

The Hispanic Women’s Corporation rejected the Maricopa County sheriff from putting up a recruitment booth at its annual conference at the Phoenix Convention Center, citing a court ruling against his office for racially profiling Latinos.

'The conference is about leading and inspiring Latina professionals,' said Leticia de la Vara, a spokeswoman for the HWC, according to the Associated Press. 'Arpaio does not fit that mold, so it was a pretty easy decision on why we would go forward with that.'

Arpaio lashed out at the Hispanic group in a press release for denying his office’s request to put up the booth, calling the decision 'politically motivated' and citing HWC president Linda Mazon Gutierrez past work with the National Council of La Raza as evidence. NCLR is one of the most prominent Hispanic political advocacy organizations in the country."

[Bob Diehl]

Thank you for the richness of economic sources

[cal Lash]

Phxsunfan, HISPANIC i might not be but I have 63 years of being a part of the community.
I read that Joe (Probably planned) tirade. Just Joe doing his mad dog PR routine. In the 63 years I have been here the Maricopa County Sheriffs office has never seized the opportunity to be extremely professional. Does not mean there are not very professional deputies but as long as we elect politicians to be the leader of Sheriff agencies politics will rule the day.

[cal Lash]

If U would be interested in coffee on the afternoon of the 27th in downtown Phoenix, U may contact me at [email protected]

[Donna Gratehouse]

I've told this story several times in several venue so apologies in advance if you've heard it already: At the end of June 2009 when they were last minute wrangling over a budget at the state capitol I went down to the House to observe the proceedings. The AEA had gotten a big conference room and their comm director Jennifer Loredo was explaining the budget process to an assemblage of mostly teachers, many of whom were recently pink-slipped, as denoted by their wearing pink t-shirts. At one point Jennifer instructed everyone to take out their cellphones as lists of legislators and their numbers were passed out. We were to call our district reps and ask them not to make harsh education cuts.

I'd been chatting with a very nice woman wearing a pink t-shirt. I guess I seemed knowledgeable to her so she asked me a lot of questions. When she was getting ready to make her calls she pointed to the name of her State Senator, Pamela Gorman, and asked, "is she one of the crazy ones?" I replied that, yes, she was. The next words out of her mouth were, "I had no idea! I just vote R all the way down the ballot every time!" Pink slipped teacher.

This, friends, is why this state sucks. Pink Slipped Teacher was obviously not a kook but she had joined with the kooks in voting GOP for whatever reasons she had. Which were undoubtedly based on the "both sides" claptrap lazily spewed by the media. Democrats do win the moderate vote here, according to exit polls, but 40% of self-identified moderates still vote Republican. Why?

[cal Lash]

Because God told them to.

[Donna Gratehouse]

The ones who vote GOP because of God are kooks. But kooks are about 40% of the electorate, tops. In some legislative districts there are more than enough of them to completely shut out opposition but it doesn't explain kooks winning statewide and competitive districts as often as they do. I attribute it to a business and media establishment that is all too willing to help them bamboozle enough non-kook but low information voters because any Republican is preferable to any Democrat. The Democrat, no matter how centrist, may vote against a business interest a time or two and we can't have that!

[AzRebel R. Perez]

To quote the master Lewis Black:

"I know about hallucinations because I took LSD when I was young just to prepare me for this moment in time. I saw my refrigerator turn into a puma and run away. I tracked that son of a bitch for three days, mostly wondering, "what am I gonna tell my parents?" And when I finally caught up with it in the middle of the woods and I was cutting open its stomach in order to get a beer, as crazy as I was at that point, I was less crazy than anyone in this room who's still a Democrat or a Republican.

[Donna Gratehouse]

Yeah, Lewis Black is wrong. Like it or not our politics are a two team sport. One team denies climate change and evolution, wants to dismantle the safety net, wants to roll back the Civil Rights and women's rights, wants Creationism taught in schools, basically wants to repeal the 20th century and go back to the robber baron days. I vote with the other team. You?

[AzRebel R. Perez]

I vote for the person, not the party.

I donate large sums of money to the Salvation Army.

I donate large sums of money to food banks in Phoenix and Mesa.

I donate large sums of money directly to teachers who need supplies for their classes.

Action, not words.

If Americans spoke with their wallets and not with their mouths, many problems would get solved.

I'm not making these comments directly at you Donna, just at the general public at large.

That's why I am a big fan of the Occupy movement. They act.

[AzRebel R. Perez]

Since you brought it up:

Climate change - hopefully, in a thousand years we will have at least a 1% understanding of planetary/solar dynamics. Until then, don't think that puny man has any ability to change global trends. (other than soiling the cities in which the species chooses to soil with it's chemicals and shit)

Evolution has been proven. End of story.

Safety net - we need it now more than ever.

Civil Rights - Discrimination is alive and thriving more than ever. Especially, $$$ discrimination.

Women's rights - I have a daughter and two granddaughters. If I could figure out this issue I would, but I can't.

Creationism - the level of ignorance to believe in this is beyond my comprehension.

Robber Barons - compared to the current DC and Wall Street folks, I yearn for the old Robber Barons.

[Emil Pulsifer]

New home building is concentrated in the outlying areas because that is where most of the available lots are. That's been the case since before the recession, even when homebuilding was hot.

New homebuilding is slowing down. Since homebuilders determine the rate at which new homes are built, they are the culprit. There is existing demand for new homes, so it isn't that. Supposedly construction workers are hard to come by, yet last month saw a HUGE layoff of construction workers, so it isn't that either.

Homebuilders had a bad few years and now they want to enjoy a few years of high profits. If they accomodate demand for new homes they will sell more homes but make less profit. The reason home prices have climbed so much in metro Phoenix is that investors bought most of the foreclosures and families seeking new homes have to compete over a very small supply. It also helps that about 25 percent of Arizonans are still underwater and can't sell existing homes, and that new lending standards make mortgages less accessible than they used to be.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Mr. Talton wrote:

"What all this points to is a low-wage economy with plenty of working poor, and it's not getting better."

Yes. The fact that a large Latino population contributes to higher than average poverty levels doesn't change this.

Phoenix has had a low-wage economy for a long time. Construction jobs offered better wages than the retail sector but at least half of the 300,000 jobs lost in the state during the recession and in the early years following it were in construction, and those haven't been recovered. This explains why Arizona has recovered such a smaller percentage of its lost jobs than the national average (tens of percentage points less) and why it is near the bottom of the rankings by state using this measure.

That said, a 12 month moving average from August 2012 to August 2013 shows Arizona 6th in the nation for job growth, according to ASU's WP Carey School of Business database, Job Growth USA. So, the state is doing better than others in recent job growth, over a statistically significant period of time.

[Emil Pulsifer]

The WP Carey database link:

http://wpcarey.asu.edu/bluechip/jobgrowth/secure_states.cfm

You'll have to change the default for the Data Set to "12-month Moving Avg".

[Emil Pulsifer]

I think there's a bit of a chicken and egg phenomenon at work. The economic recovery will be slow until housing recovers (the traditional engine of post-recessionary growth); but lenders are loath to relax lending standards until the economy and the housing market show considerable improvement and a stable upward trend; so the housing recovery remains slow and therefore so does the economic recovery.

[Emil Pulsifer]

I wonder how long it will be before investors sell the houses they bought to turn into rentals. On the one hand, they are making money not only from rent but also from bundled mortgages sold as financial instruments. On the other hand, they will eventually want to cash out with a capital gain. My guess is that if the rise in housing prices slows to a crawl, increasing numbers of them will try to sell before the others jump in, so as to avoid losing capital gains (since a sudden large increase in homes for sale will depress market values). Then there will be a wholesale investor exodus which helps families wanting to purchase homes, but kills the new home market (since prices for existing homes will become so attractive). That will mean a big setback for the construction business and for Phoenix jobs.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Note that mortgage rates have been climbing significantly since May. Though they recently dipped slightly they're still well above where they were earlier this year. If this climb were to continue for any reason, it would likely be a mechanism to further dampen (or stop) growth in home prices, which have already slowed to near stagnancy in Arizona over the summer.

[cal Lash]

Donna about a month before Gabriel Giffords was shot I talked to her at the Singing Winds Book store on a ranch near Benson. She explained that she had to get 15 percent of the Republican vote in SE Arizona to win elections

[SuzannePhx]

Well, at least we don't have to wonder where you stand, Jon. I agree the sprawl machine is a problem but how, exactly, do we stop it? Who imposes growth controls when anybody can buy cheap land, throw up cheap houses and make money? Not being facetious - I really would like guidance.

[Donna Gratehouse]

"I vote for the person, not the party."

Not a good way to vote. Parties represent values. If you value things like good schools, clean air, availability of potable water, women of reproductive age not being wards/wombs of the state, etc., you really should look beyond how much you like a candidate to what that candidate actually stands for. Jeff Flake is a super nice, personable guy, from my experience.

[cal Lash]

Wow: "Not a good way to vote"?????

[cal Lash]

I hope this does not happen:
"until housing recovers (the traditional engine of post-recessionary growth)"

[cal Lash]

War not housing keeps the economy moving.
The case for war:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/24/war-evolution-institution-societies-math-model_n_3981379.html?ref=topbar
forward soldiers marching as to war

[AWinter]

Re Drunk on Growth - the higher education racket:
http://thebaffler.com/past/academy_fight_song

What actually will happen to higher ed, when the breaking point comes, will be an extension of what has already happened, what money wants to see happen. Another market-driven disaster will be understood as a disaster of socialism, requiring an ever deeper penetration of the university by market rationality. Trustees and presidents will redouble their efforts to achieve some ineffable “excellence” they associate with tech and architecture and corporate sponsorships.

[Suzanne]

Good column Mr. Talton! Thank you

Interesting comments, phxSUNSfan.

Cal, your talking about Chicano’s reminded me of the Chicano Art Movement. One of my favorite art forms for its graphic, bold signature. I too looked to Wiki to refresh myself on the Chicano Art Movement: “1960’s post Mexican Revolution ideologies and current Mexican-American social, political and cultural issues. . . . El Movimiento, was a sociopolitical movement by Mexican-Americans [mainly in the southwest] organizing into a unified voice to create change for their people.” On the surface, this sounds like what phxSUNSfan is trying to espouse.

phxSUNSfan - I understand your effort to use language that unifies larger segments of community. ‘Hispanic’ does homogenize by language, but it also softens, or removes the rebellious spark implied in ‘Chicano’. Likewise, entwined within the word ‘Mexican’ is the inclusion of natives, who are then ‘again’ excluded by using the term ‘Latino’. So, whichever term you choose, there is a consequence.

ptb - I had to laugh at “Local First Arizona took off as a brilliant maneuver to bring together our truly local businesses (a grossly under-appreciated group when it comes to anything besides construction contractors),” So true, so true.

Donna – I, at times, have been frustrated by the “both sides” interview; it is maddening. However, it ALWAYS seems clear to me which side has made the more impressive argument. ;>)

I donate large sums of money to Hospice.

And finally, If futurist Pete Alcorn is correct and the population declines – we have reason to be optimistic. http://www.ted.com/talks/pete_alcorn_s_vision_of_a_better_world.html

[cal Lash]

Suzanne good to hear from You. I grew up in the valley with Mexicans, that's what they called themselves. My first girlfriend's name was Moreno. I dated the Mexican (Aztec) girl from Mexico City. She has green eyes,blond hair and was fair skinned, at 14 she was working at Grubers underwear factory. She thought of her self as a Mexican not an Indian. With 2 exceptions all my male friends were Mexicans. We worked the fields, fished and drank and went to High School together. We fought the Pachucos and the White Russians. Eventually I married two American Indians but never left the Mexican culture. For years and currently two of my PI business associates are Mexicans, the intimidator, Hector from Nogales and Marty, the surveillance expert from Ajo. For seven years I have been with a lady whose grandparents on both sides came from Spain to Globe/Miami. Until she was in her late twenties she was called a Mexican. Today she prefers the term American. For more on this subject I suggest the book, "To Sin Against Hope: Life and Politics on the Borderland" by Alfredo Gutierrez.
PHXSUNFAN: Right fist in air, I am a MEXICAN, ORALE.

If you would like to keep up on Mexico Frontera List is a good web site.

Pete's population theory has been around for some time but I am not sure the time line will save us. I think Malthus is making a comeback.

[cal Lash]

"Chicano Art Movement" Was around in the early 1900's. Frida Kahola and Diego Rivera were the parents. Surrealists they were called but you do not have to look hard to see where today's movement had its roots. In 91 I bought a painting from a San Francisco Mexican native that was painting on the street in New Orleans to support English classes for Mexican youth in New Orleans. His style was a mix of What we now call Chicano Art and Frazzeta.
Doug from Mexico City, owner of Gallo Blanco and now Otro, has Hugo Medina doing art for him and when you go to Otro there is a huge mural on the next door building that can be seen from the restaurant. A Mexican artist friend, told me, "only a Mexican artist is capable of creating a mural on a chain link fence."

[cal Lash]

I do like "Latino Voices"
La Voz de Los Latinos.

[morecleanair]

'Fraid I'm losing both my mojo and my marbles because this whole discussion is hard to follow. Jon did a fine job in framing it, but this whole forum could (maybe) be organized along the lines of the "5 Shoes waiting to drop". It would show how AZ has run aground during the Kook-a-rama era.

[cal Lash]

Morecleanair U are a charmed round rolling agate.
But i prefer emotional blasting along chaos to staid voices.
Maybe that's why I am re reading "Sometimes a Great Notion."

If you have 50 grand we might be able to get Jon to publish a tome on the History of Arizona.

Suzanne and Phoenixsun fan. There is more to the Arizona Spaniard Mexican story that is relevant to this day that I could post but out of respect to Morecleanair and not getting off the subject I will save it for now

[headless]

Perez: "I vote for the person, not the party."

Of the many people who've told me this over the years, not one has been able to tell me anything about the candidates in a race, except whether they were Republican or Democrat.

...and they invariably voted Republican.

[headless]

Lash -- "only a Mexican artist is capable of creating a mural on a chain link fence."

I would love to see that mural.

[phxSUNSfan]

Suzanne, I actually used the term Chicano and Cal questioned my use of it. Many in my family still refer to us (and Mexican-Americans) as Chicanos and a few were involved with some of the movements in the 70s. Chicano culture is different from Mexican culture in a variety of ways, including dialects of Spanish used and upbringing. There are obvious regional dialects that give each group away. Of course we share some commonalities but there are distinct differences just as there are differences between Mexicans and Salvadorians ... although most White Americans wouldn't know the difference.

Pachuco was generally regarded as a gangster starting back in the day of the Zoot Suit. Cal, did you ever live in Los Angeles? Also, Mexicans refer to Chicanos derogatorily as Pochos, though the word is falling out of favor. Pocho translates roughly to mean rotten or discolored fruit. They referred to Chicanos as such because our culture is different from theirs and because of our usage of English. I think of it as something similar to the distrust and even, in some cases, hate that some Spaniards and Catalans have for one another. However, these differences have started to change and there is much less division than in the past; at least for my generation.

Frida Cahlo's art and Chicano art aren't all that similar. The use of colors are vibrant in some forms of Chicano art much like that of Kahlo's. However, most Latino art forms from Argentina, Cuba, to the U.S. tend to incorporate vibrant colors and exaggerate features. Furthermore, when I use the term Latino and Hispanic I am not simply referring to Mexicans or Mexican-Americans, I am including the myriad of nationalities and cultures within the ethnicity. I have Puerto Rican, Dominican, Salvadorian, Panamanian, etc. friends here in Phoenix and around the country and I would be remiss to not include them.

I apologize for being OT.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Side note: a reply to "headless" on the subject of chemical weapons disposal has been posted here:

http://www.roguecolumnist.com/rogue_columnist/2013/09/exceptionalism.html#more

[cal Lash]

Phxsunfan. I did not live nor die in East LA. Pachucos in Arizona in the fifties were primary located in the west valley and mostly in Glendale as were the white Russians.
Occasionally the Pachucos would sally forth as far as 27th avenue and Northern with their Zip guns made from car antennas and designed to fire a single 22 short round. The problem came when guys from other parts of town tried to pickup Mexican girls in Glendale.

Zoot Suit starring Edward Olmos as the Devil was a good film about a respectable Mexican family in LA. The Zoot wars were in LA in the forties during the war years and involved white prejudice military men. Zoot suit clothing worn by Mexican men was extremely colorful, and well designed art work

So Latinos onward. The next silicon valley will be in South America.

[cal Lash]

PS Phxsunfan have you checked out Diego Rivera's stuff.

[phxSUNSfan]

I am very familiar with Diego Rivera's work and his murals in Mexico City. I saw a few Zoot Suits in closets of some older relatives when I would visit them in L.A. The suit was an interesting way to protest some of the misgivings during the war era and I'm not really sure many of them knew what they were stating while wearing them; especially the younger Latinos. The zoot suit was manufactured on the black market, mostly in L.A. and New York, due to war rationing which included the wool used to make them. It was also popular among Blacks who were similarly targeted by White service members during the riots.

[eclecticdog]

I now agree with DG (and the AWOL soleri). There is no point in voting for Kooks. I'll vote for Wimps (or third-party candidates if they are a better candidate than the Wimp) until the Kooks give up, wise up, or die.

[HackySacky]

But Forbes says AZ will have the highest growth rate of jobs over the next 5 years.

http://blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com/valleyfever/2013/09/arizona_economy_jobs_growth_forbes.php

[eclecticdog]

Even Pat Buchanan is against the Kooks:

http://buchanan.org/blog/why-the-reagan-democrats-departed-5637

At least in this posting.