Election open thread

As we head into Election Day, I call your attention to Rogue's Campaign 2012 one-stop shop with some of the best articles on the presidential race. It's tempting to say this is the most consequential election of recent years, but so was 2000, 2004 and 2008. I'll check in as I can, semi-live-blogging, while also trying to finish up a novel.

I leave the comments fields to you.

UPDATE 10:30 a.m. 11/5: My Seattle Times blog post on businessmen as presidents. The record isn't what you might think.

11 a.m. 11/5: The Kookocracy is busy with election stealing in Arizona, with Flake robocalls telling Democrats to vote at the wrong polling locations. Meanwhile, a right-wing Arizona group sent $11 million in secretive "dark money" to meddle in California politics. It's a creepy story.

 9:30 a.m. 11/6: Atlas Shrugged vs. the Fire Next Time.

Read on for more. I'll be live-blogging starting at 6 p.m. Pacific Time

3 p.m. 11/6: Howard Fineman nails the essential problems of this presidential election:

Voters could settle for what they knew and sort of liked but were not crazy about –- President Obama –- or they could take a gamble on what was behind the curtain without having the faintest idea whether it was a trip to the Bahamas or a dog bowl.

What did we end up knowing about Romney? Arguably much less than we knew a few years ago. There is probably something gamey if not illegal in his tax returns of yore -- but nuts to you, the voter, if you wanted to know what that history was.

He just flat out wasn’t going to tell you. Ditto for his records as governor as Massachusetts, most of which he had wiped clean from the hard drives of the computers his staff used in Boston.

Update from the Daily Beast on the difficulties many are having casting a vote.

6 p.m.: Jim Kunstler succinctly dispatches wealthy Republican Willard Milton "Mitt" Romney and the white suburban mob of his reality-denying supporters:

Which gets to the larger issue of what the "drill drill drill" mantra really means: namely, that Mitt Romney has no idea where history is taking us. The public may be very nervous about how they will pay for gasoline needed to live in the suburban matrix, but the reality of the situation is that the suburban matrix is the problem and doing everything and anything we can to prop it up is going to destroy the nation. Mr. Romney is oblivious to this reality and so you can be sure that his mysterious "plan" for leadership is an empty promise. A reality-based plan, for instance, would be the rapid rebuilding and electrification of the regular railroad system, both as an economic development measure and a national security issue, along with the spirited promotion of walkable neighborhoods and the rebuilding of our small towns and small cities. But Mitt is "a car man," as he likes to say.

6:05 p.m.: Ironic to see the Great Plains and most of the Intermountain West states so solidly red. It's the New Confederacy. The irony: All these are net taker states on federal taxes vs. revenues. They heavily depend on farm subsidies and other welfare. They are the 47 percent.

6:10 p.m.: NBC states the obvious: Republicans retain the House of Representatives. So will anything change if Obama wins? We will see a Tea Party bloc committed to Mr. Obama's destruction, even if it means taking the country down with it as it did on the debt ceiling standoff. If Romney wins, all bets are off. Biggest takeaway: The Democratic Party does not have game below the national ticket.

If Obama wins Hamilton County (Cincinnati), Ohio is his.

6:17 p.m.: National pundits saying if Carmona wins in Arizona, it will be because of Hispanic vote. If so, the seat is lost. Hispanic turnout won't make it. Flake only loses if enough voters see him as the nut he is, and how he will continue to starve Arizona of federal dollars for research and infrastructure.

6:22 p.m.: Amazing that Pat McCrory wins North Carolina governor's race. I lived in Charlotte when he was the mayor. Nice man; mediocrity in a weak-mayor system. He accomplished nothing. The big-business leaders did it all. He saluted and did as he was told. And the economy was booming. How much has this onetime moderate sold his soul to the Tea Party and white supremacists.

6:32 p.m.: Why is the presidential election close? You tell me. I say: Race and big, Citizens United money.

6:39 p.m.: Check out Nate Silver's live blog.

6:45 p.m.: Elizabeth Warren's win in Massachusetts is big. She's a true progressive, unlikely to be absorbed into the Potomac borg. Meanwhile, Donnelly in Indiana defeats the Tea Party's Mourdock (God wants you to be raped). Mourdock sounds like a dark tower in Lord of the Rings. Glad you did in Dick Lugar, morons?

6:50: Here's what you need to know about Colorado: There's Denver and everybody else. Denver is progressive and Democratic. Down in the Springs is one of the biggest centers of right-wing extremism in America. So Colorado comes down to the Denver suburbs and the sprawl between Denver and Colorado Springs. Lots of white right. Too close to call, indeed.

6:51 p.m.: How long has it been since the presidential and vice presidential nominees didn't carry their home states? Admittedly, Romney is from the state of money, but still...

7 p.m.: Sadly, the only thing you need to know about "Nickle-Bag Joe" Arpaio is white supremacy. He would have fit into the Jim Crow South perfectly, only his target is the "Mescans." And he has the white-right apartheid suburbs with him, especially the old whites and the Mormons.

7:14 p.m.: Interesting that, unlike 2010, some whackos are losing tonight, including Mourdock, Akin, maybe Walsh. Could Flake follow? My gut tells me, no. The East Valley votes are sitting out there, ready to save the day. Meanwhile, Tea Party whacko Cruz wins. A mixed bag.

7:23 p.m.: It's 10:23 in Florida and people are still in line. Chad? Are you there?

7:34 p.m.: Gee, big surprise, Arizona is called for Romney. It was sadly amusing to see the national pundits talk about Arizona being in play because of the Hispanic vote. It's not there. It could be, but there's no movement, particularly a union movement that changed politics in California. The LDS votes. End of story. Arizona is solidly in the New Confederacy.

8:03 p.m.: It ain't over, but so much for Romney's attempt to play Ronald Reagan to Obama's Jimmy Carter.

8:10 p.m.: Sen. Claire McCaskill utters the three suicide words for Democrats: "Across the aisle."

8:14 p.m.: News orgs calling the election for Obama, winning Ohio.

8:18 p.m.: At least we don't have to find out the hard way who Mitt Romney really is.

8:45 p.m.: Interesting that Team Romney is not conceding Ohio. Hang on.

8:48 p.m.: NBC calls Arizona for Flake. Such a shame. Says much about the dysfunction in the state. Flake will make Kyl look like Pericles.

WRAPPING UP: At 9:25 p.m., Romney has still not called President Obama. But I think you can stick a fork in it unless they find a way to give this election to the Roberts Supreme Court. I don't think defeat will cause Republicans to take stock and move back to the center. They will become more extreme. They will ramp up their questioning of Mr. Obama's legitimacy. The "cold civil war" in this country is not over.

Obama ran a so-so campaign, but the auto bailout helped, as did the extremism of the right, whatever the Etch-a-Sketch of the nominee. Romney tried to make this a referendum on the incumbent and lost. Failing to turn the House red is a big problem, as are Republican gains at statehouses.

Arizona is just sad: Apraio and Flake. Gag. Such a tragedy: Retrograde, reactionary, intolerant — not the climate that will attract much young talent. A mindset that will continue to hold back the state. It's instructive to compare with Colorado, another Intermountain West state, with a big conservative cohort. But Denver and some progressive suburbs gave the state to Obama. Democrats also took back the state House. No wonder metro Denver leaves Phoenix in the dust competitively.

P.S., AP just called Virginia for Obama.

P.P.S, CBS reports that Romney has called Obama to concede. Fingers and toes. Or will he do an LBO of the United States?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comments

[cal Lash]

US stock market plunges while Mexican Drug Cartel sales experience a over night dramatic increase. Pollesters contribute the rush to zoned out American voters particularly third candidate supporters.

Dont forget to support your 2nd amendment candidate, vote for Chapo.

[Petro]

A FB friend in the Miami area is reporting on the voting shenanigans there. Long lines in (D) districts, of course, and suppression/cutoff of absentee & early ballots. Also, one "boleteros" indicted:

In Miami, a boleteros is on who bundles absentee ballots. Many times they also fill out ballots for others and influence the votes of absentee ballot voters. Of course it is illegal. Major boleteros was charged will felony counts of manipulating absentee recently. The boleteros was quoted as being "stunned" that anyone would snitch on his illegal activity.

[AWinter]

This election was largely predictable years ago. Romney would be the candidate (do you remember the ridiculous discussions about a possible Bachman presidency during the primaries?) and Obama would win. We still have those breathless 'reports' about how the election is "close" and what to do in case of a Romney presidency. Sell me some other stories!

[Petro]

I'm with you 100%, AWinter. This "horse race" thing is self-serving equine dung.

[Petro]

Early Voting in Florida Becomes a Nightmare

[Linda]

Vote suppression in Ohio.

http://wosu.org/2012/news/2012/11/05/husted-stands-behind-provisional-ballot-order/

[Petro]

OT, but this Salon interview on e-publishing should be of some interest:

After e-literature, there’s no going back

[cal Lash]

I repeat: They will cheat: From your local Pessimist.
This will be one of the largest cheating elections in US history.
It's the old pots and pans scam or the "buyers beware" philosophy. The right considers this election a war between the godly greedy and the godless. Godless, that would be U and that commie Obama. The right considers it their duty to God to do anything, that’s anything folks, to win the war for their god. It’s amazing how after over a hundred years of war between the Calvinists and the Smiths they have forged an alliance on behalf of the billionaires that fondly believe that they are right as their god favors kill or be killed. I guess there will be no riots in the streets and unlike the French we will not behead a queen.
Time for PHXSUNFAN to provide the blog a shot of Optimisms.

[cal Lash]

Petro, U R really into this.
U havent posted this much in such a short time period, ever.
U want to load up and go to Reb's hideout and wait for the radiation to clear?

[Petro]

I don't follow sports, cal, and Presidential elections are my "Superbowl & Olympics" rolled up into one. It's a vice that I'm not proud of, but there it is.

The confluence of vapidity and gravity that surrounds this "leader of the free world" business is mesmerizing.

[cal Lash]

Petro"The confluence of vapidity and gravity that surrounds this "leader of the free world" business is mesmerizing."
I suppose after 10 Coronas I would be able to decipher the above?

Sports? Politics, Same game,
Kill or be killed.

[Petro]

"The mixture of the trivial and the important..."

Oh, never mind - as I tried to explain to Reb on the ride home last week, I really can't help it...

:)

As for sports v. politics... agreed, though it's far easier to ridicule sports. There, at least, the bloodied are willing participants.

[cal Lash]

I meant after U have had 10 Coronas it will be come much clearer.

Trivial and important?
Wonder if Jon's next novel will solve this dilemma?

I offer, again
"the fate of every successful species is to wipe itself out"
Lynn Margulis

[Petro]

I meant after U have had 10 Coronas it will be come much clearer.

Oh, I'll be downright fucking elegant then.

[cal Lash]

How Romney and his billionaire buddies want you to see it.
"A common assumption Americans make that if they are smart, they should be rich, and if they are not rich, it's a personal failing."

Geez that makes Chapo the 40th smartest man on earth. And just a 4 grade education , no Harvard credentials or rich parents. And given his lively occupation he will not live long enough to worry about social security or medicare.

[Petro]

The 2012 election may turn out to be the most fraudulent and contested election in US history.

http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/Why The Democrats and Media Deny Election Rigging

[cal Lash]

Petro, U know I been repeating this cheating for several years. A number of recent articles like above have been making the news.

Kennedy and Bush Jr elections together will not come close to the cheating in this election. The money will hire the electronics to make miracles happen. It will be the second coming of Moroni and the tablets. Now U see it, now you dont.
We have come along way from smoking a little Missouri river bank Indian weed.

[ChrisInDenver]

Cal, Jon, Emil, et al., I am voting for Obama. Not willingly. But because, as Emil and PhxSuns have posted over and over, the alternative is too dangerous. I had intended to vote for Jill Stein, Green Party candidate for president. But, after thinking this through for days, I can't make peace with my decision for Stein if Romney wins.
It's sad, because I have lost respect for Obama. I consider him to be a failure -- a DINO -- who caved in to the GOP's demands whenever the going got tough. Jon, your columns that were critical of Obama changed my perspective on him. In 2008, I looked up to him; not now. I would say you even helped me to understand truly what a dismal president he has been.
This will be a torturous vote.

[cal Lash]

ChrisInDenver, Torturous or not the best thing you did was vote, it's one of the few freedoms left to manunkind.

[cal Lash]

Better yet I will let e e c say it.

"'pity this busy monster, manunkind'

pity this busy monster, manunkind,

not. Progress is a comfortable disease:
your victim (death and life safely beyond)

plays with the bigness of his littleness
--- electrons deify one razorblade
into a mountainrange; lenses extend
unwish through curving wherewhen till unwish
returns on its unself.
A world of made
is not a world of born --- pity poor flesh

and trees, poor stars and stones, but never this
fine specimen of hypermagical

ultraomnipotence. We doctors know

a hopeless case if --- listen: there's a hell
of a good universe next door; let's go

E. E. Cummings"

[ChrisInDenver]

e.e. c would be very unhappy with you for capitalizing his initials, Cal.

[cal Lash]

U note I did not at top
Poem and bottom name is off the web.
It's my all time favorite

[Petro]

Irish Betting Company So Sure Obama Will Win It's Paying Out a Day Early

[cal Lash]

Petro, What are the irish odds that the Pope is Catholic?

[cal Lash]

The kids know.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/obama-elected-by-american_n_2079304.html?utm_hp_ref=education

[cal Lash]

and the cheating goes on:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/true-the-vote-ohio_n_2082362.html?ref=topbar

[koreyel]

@ ChrisInDenver...

It was a nobrainer...
Congratulations on being wise beyond your years.

And it case you are at all perturbed in choosing the lesser of two evils, consider this cut and paste:

...there is a profound difference between President Obama's energy advisor and Republican nominee Mitt Romney's energy advisor. Harold Hamm is part of team Romney while Heather Zichal is in Obama's camp.

Hamm made his fortune from oil, his academic qualifications consist of little more than a high school diploma. By contrast, Zichal has worked as an intern for the Sierra Club while at Rutgers University. Her meteoric rise in Washington's policy ranks took a little over a decade.

Hamm is the chairman and CEO of Continental Resources and one of the richest men in America. He is an enthusiastic supporter of more oil and gas drilling, or as he refers to it, an "American renaissance." Hamm wants to less federal regulation and he wants to give states more say in environmental regulation. Hamm does not believe that the federal government should be involved in environmental regulation.

That's from here:
http://www.thegreenmarketoracle.com/2012/11/obamas-and-romneys-energy-advisers.html

And then as an antidote to Jon Talton's frequent rages at a disappointing, weak-wristed Obama, I highly recommend this perspective by Jon Chait:

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/barack-obama-is-a-great-president-yes-great.html

Quite frankly there are few who write about politics at Chait's level. I think even Mr. Talton will agree his prose is remarkable for clarity, polish, and logical incisiveness.

If you favor video, this interview of Mike Grunwald by Jared Bernstein is also quite compelling:

http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/talking-new-new-deal-with-mike-grunwald-%E2%80%94-live-2/

[Petro]

It's Election Day, so your boosterism is to be expected and celebrated (hey, I'm doing mostly the same thing, and for the same side,) but:

The general thrust of his reforms, especially in economic policy, has been a combination of politically radical and ideologically moderate.

As a master of the unintentionally obtuse, I still find this sentence to be absolutely nonsensical, except in the sense that it foreshadows the calorie-free apologia that follows.

I wasn't going to comment on the piece here, but then Chait throws in a solid assertion that is classic strawman:

The sense among Obama’s wavering supporters that he has failed rests upon a two-part indictment. The first and most potent is that he has presided over a weak economy...

The second indictment of Obama is that he failed to redeem the broader vision of trans-partisan governance he campaigned on...

Neither of these "failures" have anything remotely to do with my "wavering support."* While the "weak economy" is lamentable, there are bigger factors at play there and "the left" is hardly hanging that around his neck. As for the latter, again it is only the right that would even touch that bogus lament.

What a weak essay.

(Enjoyed the Grunwald interview - but again, I think the economic arguments against Obama are more concerns of the right than of the disappointed left.)

---

*Civil liberties, rule of law, assassination, extrajudicial incarceration, torture, corporatism (e.g., as expressed in the HCR "reform")... a very partial list of issues that eclipse what Chait's offered.

[cal Lash]

WOW!

[Emil Pulsifer]

ChrisInDenver wrote:

"...Jon, Emil, et al., I am voting for Obama. Not willingly. But because, as Emil and PhxSuns have posted over and over, the alternative is too dangerous."

Congratulations!

After you previously said that you knew the score but decided to waste your vote on a third-party or write-in candidate, an analogy came to mind of someone who smokes four packs a day and tells the doctor "Yeah, I know, but...".

Either the diseased lung-section photos remain an abstraction for that individual regardless of what he says, or else he believes that he personally is immune from or unlikely to suffer such consequences, regardless of what he says about general cognizance.

Lying in a hospital bed with half a lung removed and the other half slowly dying, unable to walk more than a few yards without being out of breath, wheezing all the time for lack of oxygen, and having a tube stuck up your nose, requires no foresight or imagination at all; but by then it's too late.

Still, the carnival had moved on and you had indicated a desire to end the thread, and it had all been said already anyway; so I just held my tongue and hoped.

Again, good stuff. Did you share this reevaluation with those you had previously discussed the issue with?

[Emil Pulsifer]

Thanks to Koreyel for the Chait link. I agree that Obama is an underrated president by the Left, currently: I think that if Romney were elected we would all read a lot of really sobering 20/20 hindsight within six months.

That said, Petro's rebuttal was surprisingly strong (and surprisingly elegant!). I know that sounds like a "left-handed compliment", but whereas I did previously admit that Petro has a way of turning a neat phrase, I also have found that his focus is sometimes dispersed and his arguments sometimes vague. Not here.

I actually think that Bill Clinton was a better president than Obama. He cashed in the savings from the end of the Cold War instead of reflexively perpetuating the military-industrial complex, raised income taxes on the top 2 percent, decreased government secrecy (the classification rates really fell for awhile) and generally moderated Attorney General guidelines for "intelligence/terrorism" investigations; actually ran budget surpluses for several years (and no, it wasn't just the "dot-com" boom); and tried to pass a health-care bill (which probably deserved to be shot down, but hey, he's in the ballpark).

Still, Obama is a lot better than many on the Left generally give him credit for; how much better will probably not be properly documented in the commercial press until after his presidency, whenever that might be...

[Emil Pulsifer]

P.S. Clinton and Obama have very different policy contexts for civil liberties type legislation. Clinton saw the end of Communism (more or less) at a time when Al Qaida had yet to make its mark; Obama has to deal with quite a different post-9/11 world.

I haven't looked at the recent Executive Orders and analysis in enough detail to determine whether the threats to domestic civil liberties are really as big as some on the Left would claim: details and correct interpretation are important, but on the other hand it's also important to understand that a framework giving the federal government latitude which isn't fully utilized by the current administration may end up being easily abused by future administrations.

At present I'm more concerned with the nefarious and undisciplined connection between local police departments (e.g., NYPD) and "foreign intelligence" services like the CIA (and, via cut-outs, actual foreign intelligence services acting as proxies for the CIA but on domestic soil) than I am with the FBI. Maybe that's mistaken and behind the curve, given the Bureau's long record of domestic intelligence abuses, as well as their use of these local PDs (and their private sources) as proxies themselves, but I still have a sense that the Bureau has a much stronger sense of civil liberties, constitutional restrictions, and rule-of-law procedural necessities, than foreign intelligence agencies like the CIA and military intelligence.

I think those private sources are really of concern also, since they can do things that government agencies like the FBI may find difficult to justify even post-9/11, while still contributing their results to the Bureau (and others) as a public source: clearly a loophole in regulations (however weak) meant to rein in federal investigative and intelligence agencies; and the records of these private agencies are not subject to Freedom of Information Act or similar requests under federal law.

State and local police agencies (whose records fall under state and local laws) may also be likely loopholes to escape federal restrictions, inasmuch as they are generally subject to much weaker (and much more local) oversight.

[Emil Pulsifer]

P.S. Sometimes these issues (e.g., classification rates) are framed as "liberal" concerns; but really I think that those legitimately concerned with national security would be much better served by a system where classification is reserved for genuinely dangerous information -- which engenders far more respect among those handing it than does a system where every trivial and/or politically sensitive bit 'o crap ends up getting rubber stamped secret.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Mr. Talton (quoting Kunstler) wrote:

"The public may be very nervous about how they will pay for gasoline needed to live in the suburban matrix, but the reality of the situation is that the suburban matrix is the problem and doing everything and anything we can to prop it up is going to destroy the nation."

I'll break my own rule of posting only in the "spirit of the as-ifness of things" by saying that in actual reality "we" live in a very different kind of Matrix than the suburban variety. This is not necessarily to allude to a computer simulation, but I think that the real dynamics are much different than the conventional social and scientific ones, and to actually believe otherwise (as opposed to pretending to) is to succumb to delusion.

Mechanical causality is not a real agency if it is an illusion in the world where it supposedly reigns supreme. Social studies and psychology don't govern human behavior in a world where you're the only human (or at least sentient being) in your universe, and the rest is just so many column-inches of fraud and that many more faces and voices displaying fraudulent pseudo-affect on the bus, at the grocery store, and at the local bar. Really scary stuff doesn't happen until you dismiss nursery-school boogeymen like Mitt Romney (or if you're of a different political persuation, Barack Obama) as empty illusions disguising a much stranger reality.

[ChrisInDenver]

Emil,
The only sharing I did regarding my change of heart was my post today. Cal responded, in true Cal fashion. I want to make it clear that I didn't enjoy voting for Obama; unlike 2008, when I was truly excited to cast my vote for him, this time, I had tremendous reservations. I guess you could say I realized that I would be voting with my heart for a 3rd-party candidate, and I knew that just wasn't an intelligent choice. Sure, it might make me feel empowered, but in the end, what good does it do for the nation?

[ChrisInDenver]

I just skimmed over Petro's 2:14 p.m. response to Koreyel's earlier post -- didn't have enough time to read it in depth -- but I am curious, now: Did Petro just punk Koreyel in his reply?
Man, I would love to see you guys talk politics after several martinis.

[Petro]

I hope koreyl doesn't take it that way, Chris! I was critiquing Chait - but, as Emil pointed out, I came off a bit stridently. I didn't mean to lay it on koreyel. Truth is, I respect and agree with most of his views.

(Emil, I happily accept compliments slung from either hand :) - I'd be a pauper in the compliment department if I didn't.)

[ChrisInDenver]

Thanks for clarifying, Petro. You did come across that way, but it's all good.

[Petro]

Now that "our side" has assured itself another four (the excitement over the victory here at the Rogue thread is overwhelming, BTW), one assumes that the O-bot trolls will now permit a little feet to the fire and make him do it action, right? Now that the throne is assured?

Seriously, all of the defenders of the practical (albeit provisional?) lesser-of-two-evils logic should now be seriously polishing the other political power that they possess (other than the vote), and that would be organizing for a strong and more progressive Democratic candidate and platform for '16, with an eye on the progressive memes that will favorably alter the character of the Congress when the reactionary elections due in two short years come to pass.

If not, then they are just the sad rah-rah party boosters that the rhetoric of the last few months seemed to make them out to be.

[Petro]

Clarification needed: I'm not referring to trolling here at the Rogue. This is a smart, civil bunch - I'm talking about the food-fights I've observed (and regrettedly involved myself in) in many other forums.

[morecleanair]

The market doesn't much like Obama's victory, some tagging him with responsibility for the looming sequester, others holding him to account for the looming "over-regulation" that continues to cramp the style of the banksters and other perps of financial fraud. President Romney, by contrast, would have put on his magic hat and sung Kum Bye Yah with Boehner & Co. Thus, things would be put to rights and we could go on ignoring the excesses that threaten to submerge us

Oy! How stupid can we be?

[homeless]

Arizona affirms its membership in the New Confederacy.

Uncle Joe just won't go. Filibuster Flake will assure Arizona of more national black eyes in the coming years.

Within the two divisions of the New Confederacy, Arizona aligns most closely with Missouri, Montana, Georgia and South Carolina based upon voter percentages for Romney.

[phxSUNSfan]

I am very excited the direction we are headed in regarding national policy. I do believe the President (I told you guys we would win this) will be more aggressive his next 4 years; he has nothing to lose.

Back home, I am very disappointed and disgusted with the Arpaio and Flake election results above all others. The LDS and white neo-cons still hold the advantage statewide. However, there are bright spots even in the wins for Arpaio and Flake. For one, Jon, Latinos did turn out to vote in larger numbers than before (especially in the nationwide elections). Arpaio won by the smallest margin in his campaign history (52% in 2012; compared to 67% in 2000, 57% in 2004, 55% in 2008). It is important to remember that the Latino population is still very young in Arizona and many are not of voting age or are still young enough that apathy gets the better of them.

But the numbers point to a definitive trend; Maricopa County and Arizona will be a blue state in 4 years if demographic trends continue. Jeff Flake only won with 50.4% of the vote over Carmona and that is another example of the narrowing advantage for extreme Republicanism in AZ. Focusing in on the metro Phoenix area, Sinema (a progressive liberal that would fit in well among her peers from Seattle and San Francisco) won AZ’s new Congressional District 9 which covers parts of Phoenix, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa, Chandler, and Ahwatukee. Grijalva reestablished his dominance in his Southern Arizona district.

You can be damn sure that the Latino vote gave Sinema and Grijalva (and Ann Kirkpatrick) the win because that part of the electorate has been growing in S. Arizona, East Phoenix, South Scottsdale, West Mesa, Tempe, and even around Ahwatukee. And of course, the Legislative and Congressional districts that cover most of Phoenix, especially the Central City, are deep blue.

I am still optimistic that Arizona can continue to turn the tide in 2014. 2016 will be the election that moves this country even further to the left. I know that many of you, especially Jon, have dismissed AZ as a “new confederate state” but I see something different. Granted, this is only my first time voting as an Arizona resident (2rd time in the Presidential Election), so my history of frustration with the state is much lower than most here.

In the bigger picture, of the 24 states that voted in favor of Romney, 9 of them were Republican by a slim majority (55% and under in favor of Romney) and Arizona remains one of those states that is on the brink, as I mentioned before. Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, and North Carolina are quickly becoming less conservative. They are younger and more diverse in their largest metro areas in comparison; all good signs. In juxtaposition, Texas, Kansas, Utah, Alabama, Oklahoma, to name a few are still deeply conservative with 60-70% of their electorate voting Republican.

[morecleanair]

It deserves to be said again. Romney wasn't a good canddidate. He had more positions than the Kama Sutra!

Arizona may actually benefit by a slower growth rate if it means fewer Midwest seniors can afford to sell out and move here . . .

[Rogue Columnist]

Interesting piece from Jon Chait, "Republicans bet everything and Obama won it all":

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/11/republicans-bet-everything-and-obama-won-it-all.html

As to the market, it would be nice to imagine the rich are cashing out their profits before our Kenyan Socialist Overlord raises taxes, taxes carbon and goes after Wall Street.

Unfortunately, it has more to do with fears of intransigent Republicans on the fiscal cliff and a report on Germany's economy slowing dramatically.

[Petro]

Greenwald, with an eye on SS & Medicare, considers the feet to the fire and make him do it question. His six steps of liberal/progressive failure is devastating in its accuracy:

Obama and progressives: what will liberals do with their big election victory?

[eclecticdog]

The confluence of vapidity and gravity that surrounds this "leader of the free world" business is mesmerizing.

Good summation Petro! Luv it.

[phxSUNSfan]

Provisional ballots in Maricopa County were NOT being counted...it is estimated that 400,000 ballots are still out there and the county confirmed they will be tallied and added to the voter totals. This could be the numbers that get rid of Arpaio; most of the issues with casting provisional ballots occurred in many Latino neighborhoods.

"Breaking: Arizona Outrage Over Unprecedented Provisional Ballot Mayhem; Record Latino Vote Marred"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeff-biggers/breaking-arizona-outrage-_b_2090237.html

[phxSUNSfan]

Note: the Maricopa County provisional ballet issue could also change the outcome of the close race between Carmona and Flake.

[phxSUNSfan]

One more note: Arpaio is only leading Penzone by 87,096 votes.

[phxSUNSfan]

Issues that could have caused many provisional ballot issues:

At one precinct (Mitchell Park) in Tempe, Arizona, poll observers reported the precinct ran out of Provisional Ballot forms. County elections workers that address issues on election day took two hours to come up with more. Numerous potential voters left with no indication they would return before polls close at 7pm.

Other poll observers posted on facebook that Arizona State University students are being told they must bring a screenshot of their MyASU account showing their local residence or dorm address to prove identity before being allowed to vote.

These problems come after reports last month that Maricopa County Elections was holding more than a thousand voter registration forms, filed by ASU students, in suspense.

Nov. 5 — ARIZONA — Robocalls directing Democratic voters to wrong poll locations. Arizona’s Democratic Party demanded a state and federal probe after a round of automated phone calls on behalf of U.S. Senate candidate Jeff Flake identified the wrong polling location to Democratic voters, the Arizona Republic reported. Flake acknowledged his campaign paid for the robocalls but said the inadvertent misinformation affected few people.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/11/05/roundup-voter-irregularities/

[AzRebel]

Jesse Ventura 2016

[Petro]

Dialing back on my political posts on FB for a short bit, to give my conservative friends a break - probably appreciated by the liberally-bent who aren't as "into" this sort of thing as I might be - so I'm glad this thread is still here for now. :) Amy Goodman:

...There will be much attention paid by the pundit class to the mechanics of the campaigns, to the techniques of microtargeting potential voters, the effectiveness of get-out-the-vote efforts. The media analysts will fill the hours on the cable news networks, proffering post-election chestnuts about the accuracy of polls, or about either candidate’s success with one demographic or another. Missed by the mainstream media, but churning at the heart of our democracy, are social movements, movements without which President Obama would not have been re-elected.

Now the Work of Movements Begins

[Petro]

A depressing aspect of the Dem "win" (which of course would be worse if they didn't, blah, blah) - Robert Reich (my emphases):

...Our central challenge, he should say, is not to reduce the budget deficit. It’s to create more good jobs, grow the economy, and widen the circle of prosperity...

The deficit is a problem only in proportion to the overall size of the economy. If the economy grows faster than its current 2 percent annualized rate, the deficit shrinks in proportion...

But if economic growth slows... the deficit becomes larger in proportion.

Obama’s Next Economy: Why He Must Reframe the Economic Debate

It's no surprise that our politics, as catapulted by the capitalism-enthralled media, can't directly address the real "fiscal cliff" of resource depletion (and its twin, ecological degradation), that can only be addressed with an increasingly necessary look at zero-growth options.

It falls to the (progressive) writers and tastemakers to take up the slack here, to help steep people in this truth, so these kicking-the-can-down-road zombie economic policies can enjoy their final resting place in history. Reich and other thoughtful pundits could be a lot more helpful on this than they are.

[Petro]

The Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy have an, um, agenda - but this is the sort of rhetoric I'd like to see creep into the general consciousness. #Occupy unexpectedly shifted the country's attention to economic disparity and class (the American taboo). I know these sorts of shifts happen organically and are hard to engineer (not least because it's difficult to detect just what people are ready and willing to hear,) but my thoughts turn towards just what might be the spoonful of sugar that will mitigate the initial bitterness of this truth?

We’ll excuse almost anything if it happens in the name of jobs [sorry, Mick]... The Republican Party wants to throw environmental regulations overboard because they throttle back the unfettered growth we must have. Across the aisle, many who normally exhibit a stronger environmental ethic are joining the massacre, so strong is the mandate to grow the economy and create jobs...

...We have hit peak oil, peak food, peak biodiversity and peak water. We had a good run, but the party’s over...

Who Will Get This Economy Going? No One

[Rogue Columnist]

Giffords' seat going red in an election with Democratic gains elsewhere and historic Hispanic vote nationally is latest sign that Arizona is solidly in the New Confederacy.

[Petro]

...going red in an election with Democratic gains elsewhere...

The latency of self-sorting? (Which has probably slowed some, more liberal exodus than the reverse now...)

[cal Lash]

Petro, said "It's no surprise that our politics, as catapulted by the capitalism-enthralled media, can't directly address the real "fiscal cliff" of resource depletion (and its twin, ecological degradation), that can only be addressed with an increasingly necessary look at zero-growth options."

I bin saying that since 58.

and Petro said, "The latency of self-sorting? (Which has probably slowed some, more liberal exodus than the reverse now...)"

Sorry Petro but WHAT?

[Petro]

Sorry, cal - Jon has spoken before about the great "self sort" which has, over decades, resulted in the more conservative population of greater Phoenix.

[eclecticdog]

We're all Neo-Confederates now. I'll do as my Kentucky ancestors did and enlist wtih the opposition.

The war on brown people continues:

http://www.kpho.com/story/19925188/diplomats-investigate-arrest-of-7-guatemalans

Why not just use drones?

[eclecticdog]

I followed cal's link on Romney's Mexican cousins and found a nice summary of that time of the Mormon Polygamist exit at:

http://www.common-place.org/vol-12/no-03/herman/

[cal Lash]

What happened to the R Reagan post and GEN X post?

Gen X

Born in 40 I consider myself as consistent with Gen X. (see below definitions)*

However about Ronnie Regean: Not my favorite Republican. I thought he was a third grade Hollywood actor and as a politician a third grade actor running against people with no acting experience. I don’t give him credit for the cold war thaw (It was economics stupid) but I did like his line, Tear Down that wall” Much better than, “build that dang wall.” Poor John, talk about senile.

All that said about terrible republicans, I have been a registered Republican most my life. But haven’t had a favorite republican since IKE. And except for Teddy approving the Roosevelt dam project in Arizona I thought he did OK. Nixon was a drunken nut job and a criminal, Bush Sr. was sort of an OK guy that didn’t hurt the country too bad. But he was in the Chase for the money boys. Clinton was a Republican; he just didn’t think he could get ahead without appearing to be a Democrat, a Conservative Tyson Chicken Democrat. Then we had Bush Jr. In my grandparents days they kept their embarrassments in the hall closet. Along came that socialist commie Obama that thought he could talk tea party kooks into compromise. These kinds of actions almost cost him the progressive liberal vote. And I guess only your god knows why we haven’t gone after the crooked financial world.

For me, I awakened the morn after election night actually believing the ever optimistic Phxsunfan was right, the voters (except in a few places like Arizona) they knew and got it right. Democracy is still alive in the US. But the people who knew right from wrong must keep the watch on Whacko Donald Trump and the other fringe right wing god fearing kooks with a lot of guns.

I sent my note of congrat off to Barak noting that he was busy but I did expect him to create more WILDERNESS than Teddy did and for god sakes rev up the tax base with legalized MJ. Heck we can provide old guys with lots of pain a couple of joints a day and a raise in their Social Security ( I get $296).

*Professor Christine Henseler summarizes it as "a generation whose worldview is based on change, on the need to combat corruption, dictatorships, abuse, AIDS, a generation in search of human dignity and individual freedom, the need for stability, love, tolerance, and human rights for all."
Compared with previous generations, Generation X represents a more heterogeneous generation, exhibiting great variety of diversity in such aspects as race, class, religion, ethnicity, and sexual orientation
Change is more the rule for the people of Generation X than the exception. Unlike their parents who challenged leaders with an intent to replace them, Gen Xers tend to ignore leaders and work for more long term institutional and systematic change through economic, media and consumer actions.

[cal Lash]

a psycho slip I always spell Reagan, Regean.

[Petro]

cal, great post.

Re generations: According to Strauss & Howe, you're on the cusp of late G.I. / early Silent Generations - the Silent Generation (Artist) has much in common with Generation X (Nomad), since they are both in between the more active (Hero) and excitable (Prophet) generations.

Strauss-Howe generational theory

[cal Lash]

Thanks Petro. I just puked it up after I saw that Reagan post (that suddenly disappeared.)? So i apologize for not trying to construct it better.

So petro, eclecticdog, reb and whomever else want do a round on Saturday?

[Petro]

I'm always up for it.

[AzRebel]

I'm available late morning to mid afternoon. Just name the place.

I'm thoroughly thrilled at the smackdown that FOX News suffered in this election. The bastards are back-pedaling and slip-sliding like crazy in hopes that the crap on their faces won't stick.

[cal Lash]

AZREB, glad I dont watch TV.

Thx dog for the link. good read

a couple of excerpts

Perhaps one of the last battles in the war between the Skousenoia of old and the new moderation occurred when Mormon voters in Arizona recalled Russell Pearce from the state Senate in November 2011, and replaced him with a moderate Republican.

Arizona did more than that. Between 1907 and 1915, it banned prizefighting, gambling, and capital punishment; reformed prisons to promote rehabilitation rather than vengeance; and extended the vote to women. Though Arizona Progressives displayed a racist streak—they imposed a literacy test to screen out non-white voters—they rejected the state's Wild West image.

[cal Lash]

Fan Club attendees
Saturday, How about the Portland at 2 PM

[Emil Pulsifer]

morecleanair wrote:

"The market doesn't much like Obama's victory..."

That's one take. Another is that the markets' real objection is to continued gridlock and the implications this has for the looming "fiscal cliff", which economists agree could drive the economy into recession if all of the automatic spending cuts and tax increases are allowed to occur.

I suspect that if the combination of results from both the presidential and congressional elections had allowed *either* party to claim political dominance, the market would not be spooked.

It isn't very professional to sell just because your favored candidate lost, and Obama was not poised to propose (much less get passed through a divided Congress) sweeping additional financial regulations if he won; and though Romney would have undone regulations already passed, Obama's victory doesn't in and of itself affect the market value of already existing stock investments. So, I'm more inclined to view the gridlock/economic-slowdown theory as a motivator, at least where Wall Street professionals are concerned.

That said, Obama's 2008 love affair with the financial sector (as political donors) has clearly soured.

The Center for Responsive Politics noted earlier this year that:

"Between his campaign committee and a monster super PAC supporting his candidacy, Romney has benefited from about 72% percent of the near $33 million Wall Street has contributed through February.

. . . The industry's abandonment of Obama could hardly be more dramatic: Wall Street's preferred candidate in the 2008 race with more than $6 million in industry campaign contributions at this point in the cycle, he has received less than $2.6 million from the industry so far this time around."

http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2012/03/wall-streets-huge-bet-on-romney.html

[AzRebel]

The Lies of My Leaders

"North Vietnam has attacked our ship in the Gulf of Tonkin"

"Saddam Hussain has weapons of mass destruction"

"Iran has fired at one of our unmanned drones"

The Military Industrial Complex Monster is hungry and out hunting. It wants the dollars in your wallet and the blood of your sons and daughters. It must be fed.

Mahmoud I'm-a dinner-jacket, brace yourself, you're about to get an American enema.

[terese dudas]

I've fired my landscaper and house cleaner, both Hispanics. I've done my part. Life will now go as usual.

[cal Lash]

WOW REB and Petro got a new life since their saviour was resurrected from the liberal cellar. Well his god was just bigger than the other guys god.
God Bless
We have had different religions run at the office, how about someone that dosent end every speech with "and god bless"
Like a agnostic

[cal Lash]

terese dudas, I hired them, gave them a raise and have them in Sicario training, you know, for that day.
Condor

[Emil Pulsifer]

Aside from the president's victory, the good news is that of the 11 congressional seats which Democrats took away from Republicans, 9 of the lost seats were taken away from Tea Party freshmen who entered Congress in 2010.

Republicans took a few seats from Democrats, so the Dems' net take was maybe half a dozen; but this trend bodes well as a moderating influence.

A Washington Post story reprinted in today's Arizona Republic held out false hopes that an important faction of the Republican leadership might have read the tea(party)-leaves and were already prepared to compromise on the issue of increased revenues. The second paragraph in set the tone:

"With a sluggish economy facing major threats, House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) opened the door to increased tax revenue as part of a bipartisan deal to tame the soaring national debt. Republicans are 'willing to accept new revenues,' Boehner said, suggesting he is willing to break with the orthodoxy of many influential Republicans out of a desire to 'do what’s best for our country.'"

It wasn't until well into the continuation page that the story revealed the truth:

"Boehner said Republicans still oppose Obama’s plan to take 'a larger share of what the American people earn through higher tax rates.' He said, however, that the party is open to 'increased revenue . . . as the byproduct of a growing economy, energized by a simpler, cleaner, fairer tax code, with fewer loopholes, and lower rates for all.'"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/after-obamas-reelection-overtures-from-republicans-on-debt-negotiations/2012/11/07/8db0416e-28f6-11e2-bab2-eda299503684_story_1.html

Get it? The only "additional revenues" the Republicans are willing to countenance are the same old Voodoo Economics revenues they've been touting: cut taxes to grow the economy and as a result of this growth, tax collections will be even bigger than they would have been had tax rates not been cut.

When this magical equation fails to work out, and tax collections after the cut are below those expected under the old rates, the only options are to maintain spending and widen the deficit even more; or else to cut spending and -- wait for it -- slow the economy by decreasing total demand.

While it's true that cutting taxes gives private spenders more money to spend, cutting federal spending to equal the revenue loss from tax cuts decreases public demand by an equal amount: net increase in demand = zero and tax cuts are non-stimulative.

The reason this would actually slow the economy (instead of leaving total spending unchanged) is that tax cuts to the wealthy do not translate into equivalent consumer spending by them: they already have enough income to fulfill their consumer desires, and already invest part of their income in financial assets to increase their amassed wealth on paper. Giving them still more income through tax cuts simply gives them more investment money to play with, while the decrease in federal spending actually decreases total consumer demand.

Meanwhile, lesser folks who get tax breaks may use some of it to pay down debt rather than consume. So again, decreased total consumption.

[Petro]

I'm thoroughly thrilled at the smackdown that FOX News suffered in this election.

Heh. If you haven't seen it yet, Reb, this clip of Karl Rove's grief-laden denial of Ohio's outcome is schadenfreudelicious:

For the Ages

[Petro]

WOW REB and Petro got a new life since their saviour was resurrected from the liberal cellar.

Very funny, cal. Do you want me to shut up? Because I will shut up. :)

[cal Lash]

Naw keep it up Petro. It's good to c the enthusiasm. Toss in Reb and Phxsunfan and we got the motors humming.

What do itinerant con men Elmer Gantry and Karl Rove have in common. They got a lot of money and it went up in smoke.

[cal Lash]

Rolling Stones gather no moss

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/matt-taibbi-obama-wall-street-reforms_n_2092218.html?ref=topbar

[phxSUNSfan]

Jon, about Gabby Gifford's old seat in Congressional District 2: Ron Barber (D) is now only 81 votes behind Martha McSally (R). He was behind by a couple of thousand votes to McSally (R). With the counts of the provisional ballots and early ballots, he will take the lead. Sinema's lead over Parker (R) is continuing to grow in Arizona's new District 9. Kirkpatrick (D) is sailing ahead of her challenger at this point. That means during this election cycle Arizona will send a majority Democrat Congressional delegation to Washington (5 out of 9).

[phxSUNSfan]

Here are the latest tallies:

http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/free/20121108arizona-congressional-races-update.html

Most of the provisional ballots will be counted next week.

[morecleanair]

What's the back story on the half million provisional ballots that swamped the polling process and left so many races up in the air until they're finally counted? Were there many first-timers who got tangled in the hurdles? What were the demographics of the most afflicted polling locations? Channel 12 jumped on it, but the Rep has not. Once again, AZ looks inept.

[cal Lash]

morecleanair, Well there is a backstory.
but the front story is called, Bennett.

[cal Lash]

morecleanair, coffee a t the Portland Sat at 2PM? so far 3 guys with 175 years of baloney

[cal Lash]

Democracy, freedom, a great nation?

The Obama administration did not prosecute any Wall Street executives for contributing to the financial crisis. Meanwhile, 750,000 people were arrested for marijuana possession last year, according to FBI data.

Hope and change?

Time to follow Colorado ans Washington on buying weed at Circle K. Its the only ingestible substance not available at the corner market.

[phxSUNSfan]

"What's the back story on the half million provisional ballots that swamped the polling process and left so many races up in the air until they're finally counted? Were there many first-timers who got tangled in the hurdles? What were the demographics of the most afflicted polling locations?" -morecleanair

Most of those ballots are "early" (mail-in) ballots that were still being counted. On top of that, many people turned in their early ballots at polling sites in record numbers. Most of those who did so were predominantly Latinos in Democrat leaning precincts. My guess is that a last minute push to get out the vote sent huge numbers to the polls. A record number of provisional ballots, again in predominantly Latino communities, were cast during this election. Yes, many were first time voters who registered late or nearer the deadline. I'm assuming that many of the provisional ballots stem from people not updating their current address with the registrar's office. Either way, these ballots look like they are mostly from Latinos around the state. The counties affect most by these ballots are Coconino, Pima, and Maricopa.

Apparently, there are over 460,000 ballots to be counted in Maricopa County and over 600,000 statewide. Here are some stories concerning the counting:
http://politics.kfyi.com/cc-common/mainheadlines3.html?feed=118695&article=10557101

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/county-ballot-count-expected-to-last-until-end-of-next/article_e9e4f68d-33ff-5ebe-bb4b-a69eeee64b92.html

[phxSUNSfan]

I thought it was interesting that during my Google search for more information regarding the ballots, that KFYI (a Fox News-like radio station) has more info. than most sources...

[phxSUNSfan]

Found some more info:

http://tucsoncitizen.com/arizona-news/2012/11/08/uncounted-votes-complicate-several-close-races-2/

[morecleanair]

cal: thanks for the invite . . I'm an hour away and rarely venture into the city with my geezer-mobile.

[AzRebel]

I think I'm going to take the Lite-Rail to Portland's tomorrow.

There is a bar car on the train, is there not?

[Petro]

There is a bar car on the train, is there not?

One day I shall join you in "occupying" a car and we shall make it so.

[eclecticdog]

I'll try to make Portland's.

All those provisional ballots sound like a basement horde from Gilbert temples!

[Emil Pulsifer]

"cal Lash" wrote:

"WOW REB and Petro got a new life since their saviour was resurrected from the liberal cellar."

Nice try, but AZRebel voted for the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, remember?

P.S. cal, why have you never found the time over the decades to re-register from the Republican Party, which you claim to dislike even though you are a lifelong member, to something you like better -- if not a Democrat then at least an independent? Just curious.

[cal Lash]

Lincoln

[cal Lash]

Morecleanair, U call the place for the next meeting.

I do not post here to flash my dudley intellect from my old overcoat. I post here for FUN. I am not so old I don’t remember that REB voted for Johnson as did a Harvard professor that’s a “progressive” republican.

I do not watch comedy since Chaplin and Bruce died and Pryor burnt himself up. Folks that know me say I have a weird since of humor. They are kind, I am really insane. I find humor in Tsunami’s and Sandy.

NY, the Everglades and New Orleans will return to the swamp. This is a self evident as Nicholas Cage is bad in the Bad Lieutenant.

I was once, well twice, married to Native American Indians and they both told me their “people never pitched a tent in a river bed.”

Phxsunfan, Eclecticdog posted a partial answer to “holding votes”. Jon probably has more of the story than most.

Reb and Petro, Manana we can discuss (rather that a bar on lite bud rail) a trip on Amtrak. We can take Jon along and he can look for the ghosts of Ayn Rand and Agatha Christy.

John Galt

[AzRebel]

I'll be bringing the truck.

I found out Lite-rail doesn't have a bar car.

Why the hell would anyone build a train and not have a bar car?

Are you telling me these people ride the "train" in to work and they don't drink on the way in?

Then they ride the "train" home and don't have a drink before getting home?

No wonder workplace violence and violence in the home is on the rise. These people are trying to get through this life sober???

How's that working out for you, peasants????

[cal Lash]

Oh REB for a native u talk so british?
It is rather odd and rather pedestrian to have a rail car without a bar.

[cal Lash]

PUB?

[phxSUNSfan]

I hope you all enjoy your Friday nights...FYI, Ron Barber (D) is now leading McSally (R) for Gifford's seat in District 2...

[cal Lash]

phxsunfan u dont have a hair on your
if u dont show up for some hair of the dog on sat