New life for Luke?

Much celebration has accompanied the announcement that Luke Air Force Base will be the training base for the new F-35 Lightning II fighter. If I read the news story correctly, the claims include 1,000 "permanent direct and indirect jobs," and the program will "bolster" the base's economic impact of $2.2 billion (from 2005). Winning the F-35 gives Luke a future as F-16 pilot training winds down over the next 11 years. Republic editorialists strained to tell how about how this West Valley "coup" was good for the East Valley. Mesa Mayor Scott Smith wrote how this enhances the region's dream of being an aerospace hub. On the other side of town, it seemed necessary to celebrate the benefits for Little League and dry cleaners.

As usual, it's left to Homey to sun on the parade.

Despite all the professed love for Luke, the Real Estate Industrial Complex has been encroaching for years on a base that was once separated by many miles from the urban area. The difficult route that pilots must fly, especially when armed for exercises on the Goldwater range, and the danger to nearby subdivisions is one of the many unexplored local stories. As for the new house-owners who find out just how loud a fighter jet is...suckers. By the mid-2000s, land brokers were feverishly assembling parcels even closer to Luke for new tract houses and some very powerful land-owners were, er, tepid in their support of continued Air Force operations. This was a quiet but fierce clash that went on even as the Pentagon wondered whether it was safe and economical to continue such a large training base so close to residential development.

Then came the real-estate crash, along with Glendale's bonding itself into eternity for its ill-fated sports-real estate hustle, and suddenly Luke looked like a pretty good deal. Wealthy Republican John Sidney McCain and Jon Kyl, nominally senators who represent Arizona, apparently leaned on the Pentagon to bring the new fighter training to Luke. I'd love to know that back story, but it's worth noting that neither senator, just like all their cohorts in the GOP delegation, does anything to steer federal money to the state. Both were MIA in, say, securing transit dollars or research grants. I guess if it's used to blow something up, the situation is different.

But for all the cheerleading, the ambivalence over Luke is still there. If the growth machine should somehow restart, so will the tension.

As for the economic impact claims...I don't know what they mean. What is the context? What are the opportunity costs? What is crowded out? A thousand "direct and indirect" jobs in a metro area the size of Phoenix isn't very much, particularly if those indirect jobs include the workers at the dry cleaners. In San Diego, residential encroachment eventually played a role in the loss of the "Top Gun" school and the turning over of a much-diminished Miramar base to the Marines. But San Diego has grown into a world-class technology hub, so the change was barely felt (and the Navy remains big). Phoenix lacks such an engine, even with Intel's Chandler operations, so I suppose Luke looms larger.

How this translates to a strategy to transform "the Valley" into a major aerospace cluster is even more puzzling. Drunk on population growth and housing for decades, the local yokels ignored the aerospace sector that had been painstakingly put in place in the 1950s and 1960s. Most of it went away. What remains are legacy operations, such as the helicopter plant in Mesa now owned by Boeing. Arizona isn't willing to spend the incentives that South Carolina used to lure a Boeing Dreamliner plant or Alabama deployed to attract Airbus. Even these won't create the major ecosystem of a Seattle or Toulouse. What's the plan? Luke, like the defunct Williams Air Force Base, is just a training operation, with extremely small spin-off effects, if any, to building an aerospace cluster.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

Finally, it's critical to note that the F-35 is not the F-16. The F-35 joint strike fighter program has been deeply problematic for the Pentagon. It was intended to be, as the New York Times put it, "the arms program that broke the mold, proof that the Pentagon could build something affordable, dependable and without much drama." It was supposed to be the next-generation fighter that could be mass produced for the Air Force, Navy and Marines, as well as exported to allies. "But rather than being the Chevrolet of the skies, as it was once billed, the F-35 has become the Pentagon’s biggest budget-buster. As such, the F-35 would be especially vulnerable should $500 billion in automatic defense budget cuts go into effect starting in  January 2013."

Forbes ran an article recently saying the F-35 is "progressing nicely." What most readers don't know is that the writer is Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute, a right-wing think tank heavily funded by the Military-Industrial Complex. So make of this piece what you will. In any event, only about 63 of these very expensive airplanes have been built, compared with 4,500 F-16s.

So "good news"? Sure. But it doesn't solve metro Phoenix's lack of a diverse, competitive economy. It doesn't even answer the long-term questions that hover over Luke Air Force Base.

 

 

Comments

[phxSUNSfan]

I don't understand claims that Luke will create a vibrant economy. I support the base and hope that agricultural land surrounding the base remains as is for long-term operational success of the installation. However, Luke is not capable of supporting and contributing to large scale industrial output for a metro area the size of Phoenix...that being said, it is great to have the base in the Phoenix area.

Unlike Army posts and even some Naval stations, Air Force Bases (even the biggest like Lackland) tend to be very small and specialized. Many of the bases I was stationed at in the Air Force were extremely diminutive compared to the Army posts I grew up on or near. Many AFB's were also meant to remain somewhat isolated; I often felt as though I might as well have been at a forward operating base in the Middle East.

While I personally feel that saving Luke is important, investing in the universities, renewable energy (solar), bio-tech/med, and high tech infrastructure should be view as extremely important and at the forefront of economic activity in Phoenix.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Mr. Talton wrote:

"Despite all the professed love for Luke, the Real Estate Industrial Complex has been encroaching for years on a base that was once separated by many miles from the urban area."

The Arizona Republic ran a story boosting Chandler Airport not long ago. At the very end of the article, after all the hype about how this was such a BFD economically and in terms of infrastructure, came this little balloon popper:

"One improvement to the airport that isn't being discussed is a runway expansion. A public vote turned that down three times."

http://www.usatoday.com/USCP/PNI/Business/2012-06-22-PNI0622biz-cr-airportPNIBrd_ST_U.htm

[Emil Pulsifer]

Side note: an Associated Press story appearing in today's Arizona Republic (and many other newspapers across the nation) finally spills the beans about how easy it is to solve the projected 75 year funding gap between Social Security tax collections and Social Security spending:

". . . Options:

". . . Apply the Social Security tax to all wages, including those above $110,100. Workers making $200,000 in wages would get a tax increase of $5,574, an amount their employers would have to match. Their future benefits would increase, too. This option would eliminate 72 percent of the shortfall. Two years ago, it would have wiped out 99 percent."

Re "two years ago":

". . . To illustrate how Social Security's long-term finances have become worse in the past two years, the AP also calculated the share of the shortfall that would have been eliminated, if the options had been adopted in 2010."

http://news.yahoo.com/social-security-fixable-changes-politically-tough-113657402.html

But why would the program's "long-term finances" change so much in two years? A closer read gives the answer:

"Social Security is financed by a 12.4 percent tax on wages. Workers pay half and their employers pay the other half. The tax is applied to the first $110,100 of a worker's wages, a level that increases each year with inflation. For 2011 and 2012, the tax rate for employees was reduced to 4.2 percent, but is scheduled to return to 6.2 percent in January."

In other words, the 2 percent payroll tax cut, which occurred after 2010 (two years ago).

According to this article then, 99 percent of the Social Security long-term funding shortfall can be eliminated by ending the 2 percent tax cut (which is a temporary stimulus anyway) and eliminating the cap on earned income taxable by Social Security (currently, earned income above $110,100 is not subject to the payroll tax).

We now return you to your regularly scheduled blog.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Re context: the phrase "1,000 direct and indirect permanent jobs" seemed to appear in the mass media first on August 1. The phrase (and the estimate) came from the Air Force itself. I'll see if I can whip up a USAF or DOD report that details this.

[cal Lash]

just what we need more noise and jet fuel pollution. Kyl and McCain (and Harry Reid) also were responsible for killing the bill to reduce flights over the grand canyon, interesting as the big pushers were Nevada corporations. Money talks.

[phxSUNSfan]

Cal with the phase-out of the well-used F-16s there could be less jet fuel wasted. Jet noise was there before most of the suburban populace...which now feels like it owns the skies as. How "unpatriotic" when the mission is close to home.

[cal Lash]

im not a patriot!
im not nationalistic!
and tire of those that draw lines in the sand
so as to erect killing fields
from my cell
on the road to Shauaro land

[phxSUNSfan]

Too funny Cal! But I am talking about those right wingers out near the base complaining about jet noise.

[phxSUNSfan]

My comment was vague but was not meant literally; hence, the quotation marks. It is more a comment regarding duplicitous attitudes Republicans exude regarding many topics including this: "Cut taxes, but leave my Medicare alone. Support the troops, but don't inconvenience me."

[cal Lash]

lo siento no es necario

[cal Lash]

Getting Off
Topic
I am sure you all heard that the Head Bishop in Maricopa County has announced that the priest sex offenders list will not be out until fall. It was due this last time in June. As I recall this list thing was put in motion back when County Attorney Rick Romley and the Catholic Church got into it over the transfer of offending and offensive priests into different parishes on unsuspecting children and parents.

Am I alone in my paranoia that religion has taken over the US?
The land of the Free. Freedom from religion and the king.

Ah Reverend Wright give me an Amen for brother Obama and all those great evangelistic, crusading, proselytizing god folks. Bless Willard and Allah is great.

Elmer

[morecleanair]

cal: You're certainly welcome to whatever paranoia suits you, but it appears that mainline churches in the US are shrinking as their congregations age. What's more, they're further weakened by all kinds of internal strife over social issues. The Catholic church is riddled with intrigue and abuses. So this leaves the Southern US with its often wacky Bible Belters. This is hardly the sort of foundation from which "religion" can take over the US. More to the point: the erosion of basic moral principles is what threatens to bring us down. This is brought into our daily lives as politicians pimp for policies that will put additional burdens on the least among us. So, the demons probably don't wear clerical vestments . . but rather navy suits and red ties!

[eclecticdog]

Although I think the US remains a very religious country, I think the tithing part does not make much sense to the young folks just entering the job market at rock bottom wages. Not that religious folk pay much attention to what the Good Book says. Its all about the marketing now -- like McCain and Kyl allows jumping to the defense of Luke AFB (and all other defense spending), but quietly ignoring all other aspects of governance.

[cal Lash]

Jon and phxsunfan: I guess the positive to keeping Luke is they cant build another Suncity on the runway.

morecleanair, for you. I agree Mainstream churches are shrinking.

But it appears fanaticism is growing by leaps and bounds.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b0f049bc-e553-11e1-b758-00144feab49a.html#axzz23ssL9tLw

An excerpt:
although now firmly established in the minds of most Europeans, evolutionary theory remains highly contentious worldwide. Notoriously, this includes in the US. According to a Gallup poll conducted this year, nearly half of Americans believe we humans were created by God just as we are today, whereas a further third believe in a process of “intelligent design” guided by a divine hand. Only 15 per cent accept that we evolved unaided from some surprisingly upright apes.

[AzRebel]

Off topic.

Glad to hear about the Federal judge ruling that poker is a game of skill, not gambling.

Look for me and cal to be opening a bar and card room soon.

Our logo will be:

"Liquor up front, poker in the rear."

No cover charge.

[cal Lash]

Bad Bad Bad Reb

[koreyel]

Overheard in the "mental pub":

Phoenix Hangdog:

"The F-35. Crikey. A 1 trillion dollar military boondoggle and all I got was this lousy dry-cleaner job."

Tucson wag:

"Ha. Well not quite hangdog, you also got the nosiest sumbitch aircraft you are ever going to hear. Every conversation stops for a minute when one of those jets flys overhead. They completely rip the world apart...

Phoenix Hangdog:

"That's the sound of freedom! At least that's what the kooks say every time some poor dumb slob dares to moan about jet noise."

Tucson wag:

"Yeah will I prefer the freedom not to hear that shit. And so to all kooks near Luke, I say: Every time your world gets ripped apart by noise, this liberal is enjoying your freedom to feel that pain. Thank god you dummies got the F-35 and we didn't..."

[cal Lash]

Thank you koreyel.
Silence is golden.
A fact lost on the builders of mega cities and war driven stockholders of corporations of war. Kruppness is like a virus it just adapts and keeps building bigger guns.

[morecleanair]

Suggestion for future topics: the defense budget and how to tame it. We're fresh out of wars . . at least until John S. McCain or Bibi the Horrible try to start another one.

[cal Lash]

Fresh out of wars?
How about Syria, Somolia, Mali, and we will back Iran when Israel drops the bomb. And what about the Pakistan-India duel. Dont look for China to help unless its to their economic advantage. Genghis Kahn didnt invent the military-Industrial war machine but I bet today he would be it's CEO. My favorite scene in 2001 is when my ancestor picks up the large bone and realizing its value raises it to the sky. Let the killing begin.

[cal Lash]

speaking of jets and flying I like the way Top Gun director , Tony Scott chose to deal with his inoperable brain cancer. Good Movies, Good exit.

[koreyel]

Cal...

Didn't your buddy Ed Abbey frequently refer to mankind as the "noisy animal"? I think so...

Anyways, that gives me a chance to share with you this absolutely brilliant pice on Abbey. Interesting, he is buried somewhere outside Tucson. I wonder where?

First though, here is sip of it:

Years later, at a book signing, a fan approached Ed Abbey with her copy of Fool’s Progress. As the author scribbled his name across the title page, the woman exclaimed, “You know Mr. Abbey, I’m a novelist too!”

“Really,” Ed smiled (or was it a grimace?)

“Yes,” she boasted excitedly, “and I’ve been wanting to ask you a question. How many pages should a novel be?”

Ed stared at the woman a moment, his famous brow furrowed into a serious frown and he said without a hint of humor, “It should be 306 pages.”

The woman sighed in relief. “Thank God then…I’m almost done.”

Take it or Leave it: Was Cactus Ed’s Last Joke on Us (and Vice Versa)…by Jim Stiles | Canyon Country Zephyr

http://www.canyoncountryzephyr.com/2012/04/01/take-it-or-leave-it-was-cactus-eds-last-joke-on-us-and-vice-versa-by-jim-stiles/

[cal Lash]

Thanks Koreyel.
There's a lot I could say here but not the place. If you live in the Tucson area be happy to buy you a cup next time I am in town or on my way to Whetstone or Patagonia.
Or you can contact me at [email protected]

U like Abbey I suggest some of Charles Bowdens writings.