Growthgasm!

The SanTan Village shopping center in Gilbert. 

The big news back home is that Gilbert is now among the top 100 U.S. cities in population. When I worked as a columnist at the Arizona Republic, I would term these highly-played announcements as "growthgasms," an old Arizona obsession in focusing on merely adding people. A closer look at the data show that, in the metro Phoenix depression, they are faking it. Gilbert grew by 1.7 percent in the first year after the 2010 Census. That compared with 90 percent from 2000 to 2010. Any way you slice it, population growth has slowed dramatically in a place that values it above all else.

People are moving much less today because of the bad economy. But the Austin suburb of Round Rock clocked 4.8 percent in the same year and Austin itself grew by 3.8 percent. Denver increased 3.3 percent. Phoenix, which was kicked back a notch to the nation's sixth-largest city added less than 24,000 people, keeping it 67,000 behind No. 5 Philadelphia. Houston, No. 4, added nearly 46,000 residents. Yes, Phoenix was 7th in the top ten in adding raw population, but the numbers were nothing like those seen every year in the 1990s and 2000s, and by percent are below anything seen since the early 1950s and the advent of widespread air conditioning.

Gilbert is technically a "town," allowing it a runaround from many of the responsibilities of cities in the eyes of the state government. And for those who live there, I suppose it's very pleasant: New housing built around large garages in "master planned communities," more than 81 percent white, affluent, heavily Mormon, a fakey little "Old Town," well-financed schools, endless motoring, right-wing politics, chain restaurants, a sham "downtown" (all private property) at the SanTan Village shopping center and relatively low crime. The endless walls facing even modest thoroughfares are telling.

I pointed out on Twitter that Gilbert has little that is city-like to show for its ascendancy to the ranks of cities. The Republic Business Writer Eugene Scott replied, "I've been told by many that those things that fans of cities like us consider assets are not loved by all, hence Gilbert's growth."

Yes, no doubt Gilbert is appreciated as a place, if not in the same way and for the same reasons as central Phoenix, Denver or Seattle. So it's all a matter of taste. Maybe. I have a hard time believing the automobile suburbs of America are landscapes worth caring about — so many are easily abandoned for the next new subdivision. Or that was the mentality before the crash. Except for the large LDS population, Gilbert is Maryvale circa 1966.

Unfortunately, there are deeper problems with most of the "migropolis" suburbs of Phoenix (and most U.S. cities), and some specific to Gilbert. For example, building those massive subdivisions destroyed agriculture that cooled the region and someday might be needed to feed it. Although a huge windfall for the playerz, it was heavily subsidized by freeways that made the land valuable for residential and commercial development. This heavily distorted incentives and land-use patterns. Sprawl is costly, inefficient and damaging to the environment. It prevents more efficient and livable reinvestment in the older urban core. It often, and Gilbert takes the prize, represents white-right apartheid and a breeding ground for extremist politics. If there's a "we" society beyond the garage door or the local stake, it certainly doesn't include different people across metro Phoenix. Indeed, places such as Gilbert are consistently in the veto elite, helping ensure, for example, that no commuter rail happens. That might bring, you know, "those people." And in a metro area with such a limited economy, prosperity for places such as Gilbert comes heavily at Phoenix's expense, even though they would be at sea without the big city's remaining infrastructure and borrowed expertise from Phoenix City Hall staff.

The future will not be kind to most of these places. Economic growth, especially of the trend-setting Creative Class that Richard Florida chronicles, is moving back to cities, especially walkable, diverse, tolerant cities with plenty of energy, quality density and the assets to attract young talented workers. Poverty has become a suburban phenomenon. The moment in history that gave rise to the migropolis suburb is passing, especially when it's not attached to a city with a real and powerful economy.

Sixty-five million. That's the amount the world's urban population grows every year. In China alone, more than 160 cities have populations of more than 1 million. For a few decades, adding people on the cheap seemed a wonderful business proposition for metro Phoenix, especially for its elites that make up the Real Estate Industrial Complex. Yeah, we lost the Japanese Flower Gardens and the citrus groves and much of the city is blighted vacant lots and linear slums (to house the despised but needed workers that prop up the Ponzi scheme). But, hey, collateral damage. I got mine!

That thinking persists at the highest and most humble levels. The more important aspects of creating a competitive, sustainable, livable city for the 21st century are ignored by those with the power to get things done. And they are reviled (SOCIALISM!) by the right-wing which sets the debate in Arizona. Yet the huge costs associated with fast population growth, most of which had been pushed ever forward in time for "somebody else" to fix, are ever more coming due. Mesa's strategy to lure college satellites to its downtown is a beginning. But far, far more must be done, especially realizing that large population increases are more curse than charm. If the hunter-gatherer culture doesn't leave Gilbert as another slum in 20 years, so what? Outside those walls will be forces that even the most "pleasant" place can't keep out.

 

Comments

[Slitherin' Creature]

"The SanTan Village shopping center in Gilbert."

Replace "SanTan Village" with 'X'.

I could take an almost exact duplicate picture of at least two newish 'shopping centers' that are located in my new town a thousand miles away from "Santan Village". I swear that I've seen the same damned shopping center in every city that I've visited in the last ten years.

Damn!! You architects are a dull, unimaginative, sheepish lot.

[xraymike79]

Excellent blog post. And that link to Professor Lisa McGirr's article was also enlightening.
I was just in Phoenix this past Tuesday and stopped by my old stomping grounds to see what they were like, i.e. Metrocenter Mall. Wow! What an eerie place it has become. Once teaming with thousands of visitors, that mall is now a veritable ghost town. I counted no more than 3 or 4 dozen shoppers in the entire place. And the bathrooms are at the end of a long corridor, perhaps more than 100 feet long, and located next to the 'security office'. Many stores were closed and a few of the businesses that remained had their sales people standing outside the store to entice (drag) passersby in. It was a very sad and ominous picture of urban decay in the new post housing-bubble America.

[AzRebel]

I like the way Laurie Roberts has turned her column into an actual "do something about the problem column" with her De-kook the state movement.

I hope all of you here in the state are participating.

[cal Lash]

Gezz Jon, lets not be discouraging those folks in Gilbert.
I want them to stay there and not move into my neighborhood.

[cal Lash]

Talk about an ugly picture, you get it when U click on the link
"big news back home".

[cal Lash]

Off topic, A weather report.
http://act.engagementlab.org/go/273?t=3&akid=166.66536.ZC1tDk

[AzRebel]

Definitely off topic, but with the column bogged down, thought I'd give everyone an update on the Motorola employee head count for AZ.

As of 07/11/2012

56 employees

[cal Lash]

And the high number was?
and
Gilbert is like white bread:BORING

[koreyel]

According to a recent column in AARP's newsletter:

In Arizona, more than 1 million people receive Social Security benefits, about one in six, and over 920,000 are covered by Medicare.

I wonder what the Glendale specific numbers are? And I wonder would Glendale even be there were it not for both of these government run programs? I suspect it would dry up like an albino raisin in the sun were it not for the hated FDR's social policies.

http://www.aarp.org/politics-society/advocacy/info-07-2012/youve-earned-a-say-az.html

[phxSUNSfan]

AZReb, I'm surprised that Motorala has that many employees in AZ. After Nokia/Siemens purchased Motorola most of the employees in AZ where then employed under the new company name. Over 300 were "transfered".

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2011/05/02/nokia-completes-motorola-sale.html

[AWinter]

Flame the Florida!

The Baffler has mocked, analyzed, and derided money’s cultivation of hipness since our earliest days in print. Just think of all the permutations of urban hipness that have flickered by since we undertook that mission: Rollerblading near water. “Potemkin bohemias” like Chicago’s Wicker Park. Richard Florida’s “creative class.” And while each in turn drew the cheers of the bystanders, utilities were privatized to disastrous effect, the New Economy came and went, the real estate bubble grew and burst, the banks got ever bigger, state governments declared war on public workers, and the economy went off a cliff.

It is time to acknowledge the truth: that our leaders have nothing to say, really, about any of this. They have nothing to suggest, really, to Cairo, Illinois, or St. Joseph, Missouri. They have no comment to make, really, about the depopulation of the countryside or the deindustrialization of the Midwest. They have nothing to offer, really, but the same suggestions as before, gussied up with a new set of clichés. They have no idea what to do for places or people that aren’t already successful or that have no prospects of ever becoming cool.

Dead End on Shakin’ Street by Thomas Frank:
http://www.thebaffler.com/past/dead_end_on_shakin_street/print
(via Salon)

[cal Lash]

Jon, thanks for your post on your front page news of How Mormons make money. The following quote is what drives most LDS generated legislative fiscal policy in Arizona.

“The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints attends to the total needs of its members,” says Keith B. McMullin, who for 37 years served within the Mormon leadership.

And the LDS are not interested in state or federal legislation that will cost them money to help those who are not LDS.

One should note that when the LDS gives its members financial help, the member and his or her relatives are always on the hook to repay that help.

The "total needs" part of the quote is not just about financial help. It's about all things. So if you are a LDS member in good standing that needs food, the church provides. If your kids seem to be slipping in their faith you can count on lots of spiritual guidance and pressure to get in line with church beliefs. And if your young child is being molested you can depend on the leadership to jump right in and help. But you can also be sure the leadership is not going to call for help outside the church, like calling the cops or child protective services.

If you think that the LDS INC philosophy about secrecy ends with church records you would be mistaken. To prove this just put in to obtain copies of criminal police reports from the Phoenix and Gilbert Police departments.

I repeat, I view Organized Religion as criminal enterprises and the most hideous destructive and killing machines on the planet. Particularly those with Theocratic foundations.

From glad I don't live in Gilbert. Cabrone Cal

[cal Lash]

For you deep thinkers,
Petro has a very interesting post.

a partial piece.

By what diabolical purpose does Nature (or God, if you must) justify cursing us with this unnecessary self-awareness, that so much of the "something better" industry is vested in transcending?

[Rogue Columnist]

Thomas Frank is usually so good. But he either doesn't understand Florida's theories or only reads the comic-strip versions of them.

[AzRebel]

When I ride home with petro after a coffee gathering, my IQ goes up a few points.

When I read petro's blog, I realize I have a long way to go.

The extent of my deep thinking is picturing Brewer in a zombie movie. You know, the one where she scares the other zombies to death.

[cal Lash]

I have to admit I didn't know what a Teabagger was until I read that the New Times got in trouble for using the word.
So I read in the Republic today about a state medical board member that has a political "ear connection."
Does that make one a "wax bagger."
We have gone entirely insane
May the DOGs forgive us.

[eclecticdog]

Thought you all might enjoy this:

http://www.joebageant.com/joe/2007/07/the-ants-of-gai.html

[Petro]

A classic, eclecticdog. Thanks for the link.

[cal Lash]

And Malthus strikes again

[AzRebel]

great link, eclec. Thanks.

I go to bed tonight, grumpy and sad.

The wife and I had dinner with a couple of gay family members. During dinner I asked, "I bet you guys are upset at Brewer for taking a run at denying your ability to have health care for your partners."

Their answer, " Nah, we still support her as long as she takes care of those illegals".

Maybe Brewer, Horne, Pearce, Arpio, Bennett, Quayle, Kyl, McCain, Kavanaugh and all their supporters are sane and I'm the crazy one.

It's sure starting to look that way.

Good night.

[cal Lash]

Don't let it get U down REB.
Sexuality does not define your politics.
Sad is, what was allowed to go on at Penn State for years on end. Sad is, what religious organizations have ignored and condoned when it comes to young children. Sad is, that we have spent years not developing a decent immigration policy.
Sad is, that its been a long time since this state and now the nation has considered negotiation and compromise.

Survival of the human species and all others is dependent on man developing a humane social survival model.

[Petro]

Way to buck up AzReb, cal. If I ever need cheering up, I know who to call.

(I know, I'm one to talk...) ;)

[Emil Pulsifer]

One preliminary point: the Census data on city growth runs through July 1, 2011. It's now July 2012.

One reason why Texas is seeing higher growth rates is that it escaped the housing crisis, comparatively. Some facts and background:

http://www.housingwire.com/news/how-texas-escaped-housing-crisis

During the 4th quarter of last year, 54.5 percent of homeowners in Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale were underwater. At the end of this year's first quarter, the figure was down to 46.2 percent. That's a big improvement, very quickly, but it's still bad. Phoenix currently has a family housing stock that is about 30 percent renter-occupied. The normal for this market is 10 percent.

So, many homeowners can't sell their homes (which means that migrants from other states can't buy them. Many of the rest are now owned by rentiers, who aren't selling them, because they're waiting for the market to recover so they can make a large capital gain from the sale; meanwhile they're making a large and steady income from their renters, in a market where competition for rental housing has bid up average rents higher than average home mortgage payments. The number of homes for sale in the area is down 50 percent from May 2011. High demand with low supply doesn't encourage a migration boom.

As for new homes, much of the available land was snapped up by investors during the downturn. Now they are trying to maximize profits, and homebuilders are hesitant to pay their asking prices. According to Mike Orr of ASU's Center for Real Estate Development, "Unless homebuilders assume home prices will go up, it is hard for them to make the projects work out at current land prices".

While median home prices in all categories were up 32.4 percent in May 2012 relative to May 2011, the median price for traditional resales was up only 0.6 percent, and that of new homes only 3.7 percent. Other categories include inevstor flips (up 18.4%), short-sales and pre-foreclosures (4.2%), bank-owned sales (42.8%), Fannie- and Freddie- owned sales 42.8%), HUD sales (20.3%), and third-party trustee sales (43.7%).

This is not a healthy housing market. Distressed properties (houses owned by homeowners facing foreclosure or short sales still make up the bulk of sales, about 43 percent in Metro Phoenix in May 2012. This is down from the high of 74 percent in September 2010. These properties face enormous competition from institutional buyers (read: investors) and few ordinary buyers stand a chance. Again, not the way to encourage migration.

According to a recent USA Today op-ed, "roughly 90 percent of new loans go to people with top credit scores, up from barely half before the crisis". That makes homebuying difficult for ordinary buyers who need a mortgage. This isn't just true for Phoenix, but it does have particular relevant to the question of whether and when Phoenix can resume its old growth patterns. It may take another decade for its housing market must recover. The relaxation of lending standards may also occur once lenders see rising home prices as well as general economic recovery.

[cal Lash]

If there is never another NEW home built in AZ.
Thats OK with me.

[AzRebel]

The builders who are currently in the middle of this housing "BOOM" can't find enough workers. They are going around raiding workers from other job sites with offers of more money.

Crazy times.

On Fareed Zakaria today a journalist stated "enough oil has been identified in North America so that fossil fuels will be around forever." No one on the panel challenged the comment. They even stated that Democrats can't seem to understand this glut of oil and what it means for the future.

Crazy times.

I'm attempting to read "Storms of our Grandchildren" by the WORLD'S LEADING CLIMATE SCIENTIST!

His writing and message is as CLEAR AS MUD.

Crazy times.

The world birth rate is 20 per 100,000
The world death rate is 8 per 100,000.

Do the math.

Crazy times.

[eclecticdog]

I think we might make it off this world before the guano hits the fan, but no telling what kind of world our descendants will wind up in. It is entirely possible that only the nations highly dependent on fossil fuels will suffer the apocalyse. If you're too poor to drive you are already probably gardening and living in a sustainable agricultural environment. The Americas suffered an apocalypse about 500 years ago and Europeans counted this as a blessing!