Coming into Phoenix Monday, we flew very near the Gladiator fire, an awesome and disturbing sight from the air. It reminded me of Boy Scout camping in the Crown King area in the 1960s, when it was wild and unpopulated. On the ground, Phoenix was drowning in a soup of dirty air. From Midtown, I could not see the South Mountains. When I tweeted this, several attempted to school me: "It's forest fires, not smog," and that kind of thing. The instant defensiveness is so curious. a) I know all about the fires, having flown over one; b) The dirty air is in Phoenix, a health and, um, "image" problem for all those living here or even flying through; c) It is also caused by some 2 million cars, mostly deployed in single-occupancy, high-mileage driving d) If you want to get into the rising number of wildfires caused by too many people, encroachment of exurbia and climate change, that another upsetting conversation you have bumbled into. Imagine what this city could be if the defensive energy were turned to something constructive or progressive.
This morning, the wind has shifted a bit, so "everything's fine!" (Let's not talk about this scary early May heat wave). Speaking of image, someone sent me an article headlined, "Groups worry for Arizona's image." It was about potential consequences from the latest How Crazy Can You Get legislative session. They should be worried. But it's not an image but a substance problem. Oh, for a two-party state.
More later...
Jon: Ma Nature didn't exactly roll out the welcome mat! You'll likely be VERY happy to return home after your autograph events. My heart aches for Phoenix 'cause it seems to be in the cross-hairs for climate change and political stupidity. We know that the Booster Club has generally decamped for cooler climes, so they can view this whole mess with some detachment to go along with their self-serving denial. Be safe my friend . . . and don't inhale!
Posted by: morecleanair | May 15, 2012 at 09:55 AM
Rain and sunshine in Austin
Posted by: cal Lash | May 15, 2012 at 03:49 PM
I didn't even know there was a fire. Evidently I get all my local news from Rogue Columnist! And the air did suck yesterday.
Posted by: eclecticdog | May 15, 2012 at 05:17 PM
Something's Burning?
That would be Phoenix?
I think Abbey covered that in Good News
The fire will burn out when the oil is gone
Posted by: cal Lash | May 15, 2012 at 06:10 PM
If one were filming a movie titled "Apocalypse 2012", Phoenix would be an appropriate setting right now. Almost broke a temp record set 75 years ago when I was BORN! There's a Spanish expression, something like "salsipuedes" . . meaning GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN!
Posted by: morecleanair | May 15, 2012 at 09:21 PM
Carried over from the "Book Time" thread. Mr. Talton wrote:
"I was talking to the chief economist of Fiserv, which gathers the Case-Shiller Index. Change in Phoenix house prices from 2Q 2006 peak to 4Q 2011: Down 56 percent. Estimated annual price change through the fourth quarter of 2016: Up 1.7 percent (vs. 5 percent in Seattle). Prices there expected to "go sideways" after "investor" interest stops, which it will. Forecast change in prices this year before market hits bottom: Down 11.1 percent."
Thanks very much for this, Mr. Talton!
The Phoenix Business Journal (blog) reported something similar and received quite a lot of blowback from "the local real estate community".
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/blog/business/2012/05/fiserv-case-shiller-defends-housing.html?page=all
Note, however, that David Stiff (the chief Fiserv economist) says that this forecast "only takes into account data compiled through the end of 2011" and that "the model hasn’t seen the strong spring market in Phoenix yet. The prediction could change substantially as the year goes on".
The Bizjournal blog goes on to note:
"Michael Orr is director of the Center for Real Estate Theory & Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University He’s as in-tune with the local housing market as anyone in Phoenix, and was shocked at Fiserv Case-Shiller’s predictions.
" 'Phoenix prices hit bottom in 3Q 2011 and have already moved 20 percent higher,' Orr said. “By 3Q 2012 they will be at least 25 percent higher than the year before, and that is an absolute minimum of the range.' "
I can't even begin to sort out who is right about this, but it seems we have two fairly objective experts taking different views, perhaps on the basis of a time-lag in the model used by Fiserv, or perhaps on the basis of different assumptions about the sustainability of a housing recovery in a market (Phoenix) where "40 percent of buyers are investors" and "there is still a large amount of foreclosure inventory".
Note that the Fiserv report is considerably more upbeat in its national predictions:
"The relationship between home prices and rents has returned to 1998 levels. The ratio of median single-family home price to median family income is lower than any time since 1991. For a conventional mortgage, the payment for a median-priced home represents just 12 percent of median-family income, the lowest percentage on record (since 1971). Fiserv Case Shiller projects this record-level affordability will eventually bring more first-time and trade-up buyers back into the housing market, especially as apartment rents continue to increase and new households are formed, making buying a cheaper option than renting. Growing demand from first-time and trade-up buyers will finally put a floor under home prices, ending the nearly seven-year collapse of the housing bubble."
http://investors.fiserv.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=671290
Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | May 16, 2012 at 02:21 PM
Spoke with some "real" people today. They are involved in real estate, construction, finance.
They agree with the basics of the above discussion.
Market is bumping along the bottom.
Prices are "inching' up. (not 20-25%)
Most buying is speculative.
Real buyers are so rare, that homes for sale are getting maybe one inquiry and that's it. If you don't sell to that one buyer, you're done for now.
I've always preferred real people over BS generators who get paid by the ton.
Posted by: AZRebel | May 16, 2012 at 05:52 PM
I am lucky to be able to spend summers near Flagstaff.When I come down the hill into Anthem,the air quality over Phoenix is disgusting.I ask my friends and family how they stand it and they don't even notice it.I am always amazed at the lack of indignation over the pollution of a beautiful valley.When I came here in 66, the boosters denied that cars caused pollution,even when the air suddenly became obviously cleaner on the weekends.Now,they say nothing can be done because it would cost us jobs-and they laugh at the punchline-"But Senor,I cannot fix the roof in the rain"
Posted by: mike doughty | May 16, 2012 at 08:01 PM
AZRebel,
Why do you classify the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University as "BS generators who get paid by the ton"?
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2012/04/26/20120426phoenix-area-homes-prices-up-20-percent.html
Why does your informal survey of a tiny handful of individuals, as reported by you, trump careful collection and study of data from a broad variety of sources?
Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | May 17, 2012 at 07:15 PM
Because they are on the front lines.
Who do you want to check with on how the game is going, the player on the field in the stadium, or the person in the air conditioned skybox.
Spectators are just that, spectators.
I want to talk with people who have skin in the game.
Posted by: AZRebel | May 17, 2012 at 08:31 PM
So, ASU doesn't talk to front line players in compiling such data?
Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | May 17, 2012 at 08:50 PM
Apparently not.
Posted by: AZRebel | May 18, 2012 at 07:07 AM
On a side note, why would W.P. Carey school of business have to run an add of itself on a billboard on the Beeline highway? Is that how it rounds up students?
Is it an elite business school or is it the circus coming to town.
Kind of looks to me like our university systems have sort of lost their way.
Posted by: AZRebel | May 18, 2012 at 07:28 AM
Went house hunting today. Disappointed at how little 200k will buy in the Central corridor. I will probably close on something by August so I'm not giving up just a little sticker shocked.
I bought a 1100 sq foot house with a pool in NorCal back in 1996 for 170k. A similar house near Camelback and Central would be quickly sold for 325k now.
One of the houses is like 80 steps to the light rail which makes up for quite alot. I will deploy a pool builder the day after closing as well.
Posted by: Chris M | May 20, 2012 at 08:44 PM
Chris, this is not directed at you.
If a person paid 325k for 1100 sqft at Camelback and Central, then the old adage of " a fool and his money" would apply.
We don't have housing bubbles, we have fool bubbles.
Posted by: AZRebel | May 22, 2012 at 06:20 AM
AZRebel... I totally agree.
Until I looked in earnest in Central PHX I didn't really think it would cost more than 225k for a modest house with say a functional 60's pool. There are none. Heck there is currently a non aircon house for sale in the St. Francis area for 165k. I don't mean to say the aircon isn't working... It was simply never installed. Some tough folks must have lived there.
Posted by: Chris M | May 22, 2012 at 02:49 PM