Rogue Columnist will mark its fourth anniversary next week, a veteran run in the blogosphere. I write and produce this blog because it offers analysis and commentary, especially for my Arizona readers, that I don't find elsewhere. I write it because, as George Smiley said, I always thought I owed. I'm indebted to Richard Silc, the honorary front page editor of Rogue, as well as others who pass along important news. My thanks go out to the regular commenters who enliven and enlighten the conversation here, and to the growing number of readers who come to the site. May you all have a happy New Year.
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No, thank you, Jon. And enjoy this new year, which will no doubt be very interesting in a "Chinese" kind of way.
That goes for the rest of the Rogue denizens as well.
Posted by: Petro | December 31, 2011 at 01:01 PM
Jon, Here's to anther forty years of this blog and your continued mysteries. I feel fortunate to have read along as you produced great material with great responses by some truly gifted folks and young bright folks that hopefully can carry the banner forward. I repeat myself from the last blog and suggest a RC committee be formed to attend, audit and provide input the Phoenix city council. I will be happy to provide transportation and security.
Along the lines of Tempe, I spent a considerable amount of time in Tempe since 1950 and other than the Harkins theatre and a few other sites, I find Tempe currently jammed and rushed. Also Tempe has a crime problem in that police resources are mis-allocated in my opinion. For example attached is a post by retired Mesa officer and editorial writer Bill Richardson on the latest Big Narcotics busts by Tempe PD. http://eastvalleytribune.com/opinion/article_f1d70eb0-3276-11e1-b273-0019bb2963f4.html
Once again a local agency doing the feds work because it’s enthralling and it brings in big federal bucks to do more of the same and by fancy toys. The cartels would not be selling Mary Jane in Downtown Tempe if you could pick up a pack at Circle K.
I am a member of LEAP a cop group pro legalizing current illegal drugs.
C U all next year, should I wake up again manana. Mas Tarde.
Posted by: cal Lash | December 31, 2011 at 02:07 PM
cal, I am somewhat reluctantly returning to the, um, "Valley" in the next couple of weeks to stay with my son (Portland is not employing me), specifically in Tempe. (At least before I was closer to center-city - ah, well, baby steps.)
A possible bright spot is that I may get to kibitz with you folks sometime at one of your meets.
Posted by: Petro | December 31, 2011 at 04:39 PM
Thanks, Jon. Happy 2012!
Posted by: Rate Crimes | December 31, 2011 at 08:03 PM
This blog is so good, and the entries so well-written, I feel like I should be paying for the content. To get it for free is truly a gift. Thanks, Jon. Happy New Year to everyone.
Posted by: ChrisInDenver | January 01, 2012 at 02:43 AM
Petro, Sorry to hear U have to leave Portland. Make sure you pickup a face mask before you arrive in Phoenix. Breathing is rather difficult.
We will be happy to have U join us.
Cal
Posted by: cal Lash | January 01, 2012 at 10:15 AM
Thanks, Cal - you are too kind.
Posted by: Petro | January 01, 2012 at 12:56 PM
This is almost a parody of local-yokel "positive thinking," but done in complete seriousness:
http://www.azcentral.com/community/chandler/articles/2011/12/20/20111220se-valley-cities-towns-learn-lessons-new-economy.html
And this:
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/12/21/20111221experts-predict-brighter-2012-arizona.html
Now, compare with:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/jontalton/2017122608_biztaltoncol01.html
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | January 01, 2012 at 01:01 PM
Such a pessimist, Jon!
Judging from the execrable orgy of delusion on display in Times Square last night, I predict that such reality-based thinking will continue to be in short supply in 2012.
Posted by: Petro | January 01, 2012 at 01:17 PM
Yes, thank you very much to Mr Talton, and the many other contributors to this wonderful blog! I have learned much about Phoenix here. Happy New Year - year of the Dragon to everyone!
Posted by: pat L | January 01, 2012 at 01:56 PM
Happy New Years to all, and let's not let the "perfect be the enemy of the good." I took my grandchildren swimming today at the Marriott after treating them to a great block party($5 admission) last night in Tempe. In spite of smog,airport traffic,congestion, and crime( which is like the weather-nobody ever does anything about it)Tempe has the closest thing to a downtown than any city in Valley. IMHO. By the way,does anyone teach semantics anymore? It was the best class I took at Phoenix College.
Posted by: mike doughty | January 01, 2012 at 02:04 PM
S I Hayakawa.
and i am a July 1940 Dragon.
Posted by: cal lash | January 01, 2012 at 02:59 PM
Thanks Jon. I never comment, but you are my favorite website. And you're right, it's the only place I can get a point of view that's close to my own. Plus, I love the Front Page links!
Posted by: John | January 01, 2012 at 04:13 PM
The Chinese Dragon year does not kick in until mid-February; in the meantime, rock on everybody.
Posted by: terese dudas | January 01, 2012 at 04:47 PM
"By the way,does anyone teach semantics anymore?"
Certainly, in the context of programming languages. Have you read 'Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid'?
Posted by: Rate Crimes | January 01, 2012 at 09:18 PM
Gave that boik to my grandson in July.
I read in the New Yorker that Portland is where young people go to retire?
Posted by: cal lash | January 01, 2012 at 09:23 PM
Thank you very much for your blog. I thoroughly enjoy it. It is the only place I know where the comments section does not instantly devolve into a rant about illegal immigration. (This happens even on sports stories on azcentral.) In fact, I find the comments well thought out and challenging. As someone who has taken on the Quixotic journey of running for the state legislature as a Democrat, I am one those folks who will do my best to turn this state around. I know this will not be easy. I know it may cause my physical and intellectual doom. But I am all in and will continue to read Rogue for inspiration and sanity.
Posted by: Lorenzo Sierra | January 02, 2012 at 09:57 AM
Happy New Year Rogue! Thank you for all the scribblings and thank you to all the commenters too. This is the one blog I always check, read every post, and read every comment.
Posted by: eclecticdog | January 02, 2012 at 10:02 AM
Welcome to another Year, hopefully filled with great positive stuff. Here's to Jon's New book,Powers of Arrest due out soon. To Phoenix Shrinkage and Phxsunfan how about a wish list for the "Valley of the Sun"? And is there a good coffee shop in city scape that allows old dogs to hang out or may be we should work out a get together in Tempe in honor of our Tempe bloggers. Is there a Tempe coffee shop that's a few yards off the light rail?
Posted by: cal Lash | January 02, 2012 at 10:34 AM
Contrarians eat optimists and pessimists for breakfast.
We wish you all a prosperous and healthy CONTRARIAN 2012.
AzReb
Warren Peace
Helen Highwater
Posted by: Warren Peace | January 02, 2012 at 03:30 PM
petro, we'd love to share coffee and a debate with you. Please be advised that newcomers to the group have to wear a dress and sit in cal's lap.
Posted by: AzRebel | January 02, 2012 at 03:34 PM
This blog often makes me cry. I was, when I owned my PR firm in the 80's and 90's, one of the real estate industrial complex boosters, dependent for my living on that market. I made many assumptions that weren't true, because I had to feed my family. Only after I started a second career coaching startups and learned how hard it is for them in Phoenix did I come to realize why you write with such passion about people who were my clients and "friends." I don't comment because I have little to add; I was there for all of it, and it all went down just as you have said, from 1968 when I arrived until today. Happy New Year. It's a wonderful labor of love you perform here, Jon.
Posted by: twitter.com/hardaway | January 02, 2012 at 03:58 PM
Hardaway, if you are able to make the conversion to a true "contrarian" you will able to see the situation for what it really is, then you will be able to advise your friends and neighbors and family about the true course of events and they will be able to make decisions which will serve them best. Don't buy the BS. Look for the reality.
May the force be with you.
Posted by: AzRebel | January 02, 2012 at 04:15 PM
Nappy Yuckin' Hew Fear!
Posted by: Supreme Commander | January 02, 2012 at 04:29 PM
Very funny SC.
If I were on a date with Nappy Napolitano, there would be a bunch of Yucky going on, along with great fear at the point where the good night kiss was being anticipated.
Screw Nappy and screw the department of homeland insecurity.
Posted by: AzRebel | January 02, 2012 at 05:08 PM
Rebel U drinking or smoking?
Posted by: cal Lash | January 02, 2012 at 05:24 PM
I guess this is as good a time as any to break cover and say thanks to Jon and all you regulars for the blog and discussion. I'd like to be able to say "long time listener, first time commenter," but in truth I only found it about a week ago (via Bird on Fire). However, I have been reading avidly and extensively since. I wish I'd been here for the last four years.
Given the content here, I wonder if anyone knows/remembers Walt Lockley -- he used to have an extensive series of articles about Phoenix architecture and urbanism up at www.waltlockley.com (to include one about Wenceslaus Sarmiento, the "Punchcard Building" guy), but he has apparently since decamped to Portland and all the PHX stuff is gone from his site; even Wayback Machine won't recover it, at least not through my inept ministrations. Sad, but I assume he has his reasons.
Posted by: TooLeeRollUm | January 02, 2012 at 06:10 PM
The real estate boom is on in Iowa with black soil going for $10,500 an acre.
Posted by: cal Lash | January 02, 2012 at 06:59 PM
Like Emil would advertise, good late edition stuff in the last blog. Go back and read it.
Posted by: AzRebel | January 02, 2012 at 08:44 PM
Cal-Einstein Bagels closest thing I know to coffee shop at Univ. and Rural.1/2 block from light rail station-if you can walk that far:>)
Posted by: mike doughty | January 02, 2012 at 10:49 PM
My thanks as well. I didn't want it to seem as though I got my guest column and then stopped participating: I use the Internet via libraries and between Christmas and New Years closures and hours restrictions, as well as difficulties with personal finances and a bit of depression as a result, I've had perhaps 20 minutes online time recently.
Anyway, great blog: like no other that I've come across in its emphasis, sensibilities, range of variety consistent with these, the professional journalism background of the blogger (and all of the standards that stem from this background) as well as his accessibility to readers, informed and engaged commenters, the links to Phoenix and Arizona without the parochialism that often accompanies such, and on and on; not to mention the recherche links that pass through the Front Page (and often into its archives).
Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | January 03, 2012 at 09:33 AM
Seen this?
"Gasoline exports have also grown to the point where they are getting close to equaling the amount of imports. The number of exports totaled 562,000 barrels a day, compared to imports of 596,000.
"...Even with its ability to export, the U.S. refining industry is not operating at peak capacity. It is currently running at a rate of 84.7 percent, but the picture for the industry could also change in coming months as the east coast continues to see refineries shut down. Two big closures are pending in the Mid-Atlantic for 2012."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45826765/
Er, drill baby, um...drill?
Incidentally, one aspect I haven't seen mentioned in anything on the subject (though I haven't done a comprehensive search) is the spread in prices between West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil. The former has been considerably cheaper per barrel all through 2011:
http://www.thestreet.com/topic/45741/oil-prices.html
The point is that with (some) domestic oil cheaper than foreign oil (Brent), gasoline refined from it could be sold with more competitive pricing.
The articles I've read mention that they have no idea what the exported gasoline and other products are selling for compared to domestic prices, since the petroleum export companies aren't telling; but they suggest that prices for exports must be higher because foreign demand for gasoline in developing countries (adding more cars to the roads) is high, and from general market principles if they could get an equal or better price here in America, they wouldn't export.
But I don't think this necessarily holds up to scrutiny: demand for gasoline has been dropping in the U.S. and you can't sell more of what there is less demand for: also, profits are determined by total sales not by per unit prices: if you can sell enough units by lowering the price, you can make greater total profits.
Of course, sales prices for exports could be higher: but we just don't know because the journalists don't seem to be doing their job. It would be ironic though if gasoline or other refined petroleum products sold to, say South America or Asia was actually cheaper than domestic prices.
Another wrinkle (just discovered in an online search) which might explain why two Atlantic Coast refineries are closing soon whereas profit margins for middle-American refineries are higher:
http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/2011/08/why-havent-gas-prices-fallen-more.html
Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | January 03, 2012 at 10:23 AM
P.S. In case I didn't make this clear enough, the import/export figures for gasoline reveal that if the United States sold all of the gasoline refined here to U.S. customers, it would only need to import 34,000 barrels per day instead of 596,000 barrels per day.
Another question which arises in considering this is, if U.S. petroleum exporters are selling gasoline to foreign markets because they're getting higher prices from foreign buyers, why is there any financial motive for American users to purchase imported gasoline? The gasoline exported to America should, ipso facto, be more expensive than the gasoline produced in America.
Of course, the issue is complicated and I pretend no expertise. I simply find the question fascinating.
Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | January 03, 2012 at 10:38 AM
Coincidently my Mom worked for Ms Hardaway. She got hired right before the PR firm was sold after a long independent run and then got laid off right after. This really isn't a knock or negative post -- just a fact. In fact, the position my Mom took made her feel like she had done well in the industry and had reached the top. Afterwards, she never really worked in PR again, but went into mortgage underwriting, and that is another story!
Posted by: eclecticdog | January 03, 2012 at 10:47 AM
I think I got my PR firms mixed (is it that hard to do or am I just getting old?). Mea culpa!
Posted by: eclecticdog | January 03, 2012 at 11:18 AM
Thank you Jon, for your consitant, enlighting, and very much enjoyed blogs.
Regards,
Truth
Posted by: Truth08 | January 06, 2012 at 05:37 PM