What, us worry?

I had dinner last night with a friend from Phoenix. It was a beautiful night in downtown Seattle and our table had a great view of Elliott Bay with the ferries coming and going. But the news from home was uniformly bleak, from the ongoing housing depression to the normality of crazy politics. Neither of us think there's a chance that the odious Russell Pearce will be recalled. It makes me wonder for the thousandth time: Why did the East Valley get stuck with the nihilist Mormons? By contrast, Salt Lake just opened yet another light-rail line, along with its commuter rail service. None of that would have happened without support from the church.

A story in the paper about the real-estate situation quoted Elliott Pollack as an authoritative "Arizona economist." Pollack is a developer and a relentless shill for the Real Estate Industrial Complex. He's a pleasant guy and our relations were cordial. But why does he have any cred left, having completely missed or dismissed the state and metro's dangerous dependency on housing and usually sugar-coating the reality after things blew up. Must be a nice gig. As is the case in so much of America, there's no price to be paid, no accountability, as long as you hang with the right crowd and stay on message. And to be fair, this blindness/denial was true of all the "experts" as Arizona ran up to the edge and jumped off.

But everything's really fine, right? We just need more optimism. The boosters are still promoting the so-called Sun Corridor, a "megapolitan" area stretching from Tucson to Prescott and containing 10 million people, or 9 million, or 8 million by 2030 or 2040. Whatever. It's going to be big, and essentially the model that propelled Phoenix during the age of cheap gas and abundant water can go on for ever. The only concession by the boosters now seems to be that this thing will bring in a few less people.

I would be tempted to say, what hallucinogens are they ingesting? The water for such a population doesn't exist. The cost of energy for everything from air conditioning to single-occupancy car trips across this single-family-detached house suburban paradise will be prohibitive. The debt overhang, falling incomes and diminished retirement expectations for Americans make the old Sun Belt migration less likely to continue. Environmental consequences of the single mode of sprawl development that Arizona knows will grow exponentially. To the heat island and worsening drought conditions, one can add the increasing damage from climate change. And where will these additional millions work in a nation facing sustained high unemployment? No matter. The sprawl crew gets paid to peddle this crap, including the disastrous Superstition Vistas. (Of course, it will be "sustainable.").Think positive!

Occasionally reality intrudes, such as a recent presentation about the state's dismal performance in the world economy. Well, duh. Measures such as SB 1070 don't help. But the state has never had a strategy to lure foreign direct investment, create an export-based economy or play off its relative closeness to the ports of LA/Long Beach in the logistics field. Sunshine is enough, right? Maybe if the state had one-quarter of its present unsustainable population. Of course when it, did Arizona actually exported things, from copper to produce and electronics. Were it not for Intel, the state wouldn't have anything to contribute to the world economy aside from being a holding pen for "I got mine" sociopaths from the Midwest.

Speaking of which, somebody told me that Wal-Mart CEO Mike Duke has a "home" in north Scottsdale. Of course, he gives nothing to the local arts or for civic betterment. As Arizona's largest employer, Wally is a huge contributor to the AHCCCS rolls, as it is to Medicaid everywhere. Economic freedom! Down with government! Hands off the job creators! Oh, wait... Anyway, it would be interesting to know how many of the 1 percent have one of their twelve or twenty "homes" in "the Valley." And then to catalog the shameful lack of civic engagement, besides helping fund the likes of the "Goldwater" Institute and assorted right-ring causes.

In a similar vein, John Sperling turned 90 and received a, let us say flattering, piece in the newspaper. Little was said about Apollo and the University of Phoenix's troubles with regulators and others, or the poisonous and costly legacy of the "for-profit university" that Sperling pioneered. Again, feeding at the taxpayers' trough while denouncing "Big Government." As bad, the man is one of the richest in America and what has he done to help the namesake city of his "university" racket? Even the headquarters was built in an industrial area south of the Salt River instead of downtown. What a contrast with Bill Gates and Paul Allen, and what they have done for Seattle.

Occupy North Scottsdale!

 

Comments

[cal lash]

Peak fossil fuels
Peak globalization
How about the five steps of
"The Third Industrial Revolution'?

[morecleanair]

Wonder why Sue Clark Johnson @ Morrison allows Grady Gammage to peddle his "Sun Corridor" pipe dreams? I thought she was one of the white hats! The Republic treats him as a respected source . .

And I wonder who winds up with the geezers' "homes" after they return to Peoria or go on to their great reward?

[soleri]

Cal, were you listening to Jeremy Rifkin on Diane Rehm?

This might seem just a bit OT but Rifkin struck a chord about how Obama hasn't given an overarching narrative to the coming energy revolution. His administration makes many good movies toward alternative energy but it's the old guard that still rules our consciousness. So, instead of planning for an economy that takes root in the scorched earth of a failing energy paradigm, we let the old crush most of the green shoots that pop up.

For Phoenix, the stakes are dire. Yet we don't generate a necessary sense of urgency because the traditional players like Pollack still own the discourse. The political right, culturally, technologically, and neurologically reactionary, rule in the public square where change must emerge. OWS will have a rally in downtown Phoenix this Saturday, but it will highlight just how marginal the left is and how hostile reactionary culture is to innovation and reinvention.

We're not going to have another real-estate boom in a metroplex where nearly one in five houses is empty. That's over and we can rejoice in our deliverance from that tyranny. But Phoenix's hostility to innovators and creators keeps us stuck in a low-ebb tide pool. Pearce, Arpaio, Kyl, McCain, Brewer, and Horne feed off public fear and sclerosis of the old order. Their day is almost done. But unless Phoenix's death wish has some late-stage intervention, it's going down with them.

[cal Lash]

I was on the peak above Crystal canyon today while listening to PBS and the bit about the book “The Third Industrial Revolution”. Sounds like something I will read. Looks like Germany once again forges to the forefront? Those folks know how to put a good head on a beer.But for those who have a lot of Hope for beer drinking in Phoenix, there is always Tom’s Tavern as re-done by the classy sports boys. Eighty years ago Toms Tavern might have not been as Classy but it certainly had character. I used to sneak in, in the early 50’s for a game of pool and some beans. Some current Arizona politicians should consider a move to short creek where their views might find an obedient audience. Of course there is not much outrage in Phoenix over anything except illegal’s and Obama. Not much matters to the religious right kooks except the right to yell what “them illegal’s and the black dude gotta go!”
It’s still the Wild West. Arizona is a place where we got the crooks policing the crooks. Wyatt Earp looks good compared to some Arizona law enforcement. They may have hung Tom Horn for killing but no one ever accused him of lying.
So Phoenix continues to burn and the Hohokam ghosts wander in the desert breeze looking for more of us to arrive as dust on the wind.

[koreyel]

Occupy North Scottsdale!

Only if someone first implements an idea I've been toying with. And that I might as well let loose into the internet wilds:

--Free guns for poor brown people!--

After all, we do believe in the 2nd Amendment...
If anything excessively so in AZ...
And so arming poor people is a good thing...
Russell Pearce oughta love the idea...
Joe Ape too...

I don't think it would cost much to do this.
Buy cheap hand guns and bullets in bulk...
Have poor people sign a simple pledge:

"I promise on my honor not to use my free gun to commit a crime against other poor or middle class people."

And that's it.
Load em' up.
Give 'em a cheap holster...
Bus 'em up north...

And then...
Occupy North Scottsdale!

(Hell of an idea, no? If you ever dreamed of being famous, I just gifted you the fast track.)

[jmav]

It would be a good lesson for rightists in other parts of the US to live in metropolitan Phoenix to actually experience their right-wing ideology in action. I don't mean in Paradise Valley with piles of wealth but working in a median wage job.

Random street violence from stupid people exercising their 2nd Amendment, unnecessarily polluted air, inadequately resourced schools to provide funding for unending prison expansion, a lot of many mentally unstable people being ground down by the system and few opportunities for employment advancement.

[cal Lash]

I can tell Koreyel just finished reading the latest copy of Adbusters.
Los Morenos esta aqui.

Think I will re watch the existetial Syriana tonite.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Just a note: I added a brief coda (and mea culpa) to the "Peak Oil For Smart People" thread preceding this.

[eclecticdog]

Joe Ape! Made me smile.

cal, I think Dan Thrapp in his book on Al Seiber, Chief of Scouts, accuses Horn of stretching the truth (he was a mule skinner on Crook's chases and not a scout).

[Emil Pulsifer]

Even Pollack says that recovery in Arizona isn't likely before 2015-2016. The legislature's $538 million (conservatively estimated) tax cut package, a fraction of which has already taken effect and will slowly ramp up, is scheduled to phase in more fully in 2014, when the temporary sales tax increase is also scheduled to expire.

I'll bet that the estimated revenue loss was made with rosy supply-side assumptions and optimism about the state's near-term economic performance, and that actual revenue losses will prove considerably higher.

If you thought that the latest budget fight and spending cuts were like pulling teeth, just wait until we have to do the same thing every year. Part of the conservative strategy to "starve the beast"?

The Arizona Republic had an interesting article in the Sunday Business section about real estate woes.

One part noted that investors, who account for the lion's share of home purchases at present, might be driving down home prices, setting "
the optimal price point at the low end of the market, they said, because investors can minimize their financial risk and turn a profit more quickly on a rental home if the purchase price is low".

Naturally, lenders are eager to sell at lower than market prices when investors take large lots off their hands. Since they also hire the appraisers that probably isn't too difficult to finesse.

The article also mentioned that luxury homes are only just now starting to hit the foreclosure skids because, unlike homes priced under $500,000 which were insured by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, where lenders could pass losses on to the government, the more expensire houses aren't thus insured. So, they went after the little guy aggressively at taxpayer expense, but more foreclosure troubles are on the way. (Almost out of online time.)

http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2011/10/08/20111008phoenix-real-estate-improved-fundamentals.html

[cal lash]

Ur right electric dog. Mule skinner to killer was probably an easy step.

[morecleanair]

Please don't gloss over the subject of air quality in our discussion about what makes Phoenix' future so cloudy. The American Lung Assn. gives "F" grades to the Valley's air. The Brown Cloud and the Bad Ozone affect (their estimate) one in six residents. This translates to over 600,000 people with various respiratory ailments that are often written off as allergies, sinus or "sniffles".

Public health issues seem beyond our state legislature's purview, which is no surprise. Meanwhile, back on the Potomac, Congress wants to gut the EPA and Obama has chickened out on tightening the emission standards.

Bottom line: we talk a lot about water and give short shrift to air. It isn't in the sprawlmeisters' lexicon!

[jmav]

Holding pen for sociopaths from the Midwest. That says it all and could not be better put.

[Rate Crimes]

A quick glance at the available evidence should make any bearer of the oxymoronic moniker, "Arizona Economist", a target of unending ridicule. The modifier, "authoritative" raises 'ridiculous' into the Austro-Chicagoan realm of the absurd.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Sorry, the item about high-end foreclosures was in the same issue but a different article. Here's the relevant excerpt:

"Mortgages for very large amounts - above a varying threshold that has never been higher than $500,000 in metro Phoenix - aren't insured by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. With these large loans, rather than simply passing along their losses to the federal mortgage agencies, lenders suffer the losses themselves. So lenders have been slower to foreclose on these high-end homes. . ."The luxury market has been last to be hurt by foreclosures," said Paradise Valley real-estate agent Walt Danley. He said in some cases homeowners with multimillion-dollar mortgages haven't made their loan payments for many months but lenders have acted more slowly, focusing on lower-priced homes first."

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2011/10/09/20111009phoenix-real-estate-foreclosure-crisis-economy.html

This seems to suggest that the real reason lenders aggressively foreclosed on the little guy and were recalcitrant about reducing mortgage payments (interest or balance) was that the foreclosure costs (most or all) were being paid by the taxpayer.

Note also that in the past such "jumbo" or "nonconforming" loans have been defined for considerably lower amounts: one website lists the cut-off point for mortgage insurance at $359,650 for a single family residence in 2005. So, the problem may be bigger than it at first appears.

http://www.arizonamortgagenet.com/jumbo-home-loans.php

[Emil Pulsifer]

I like reading the Business section of the Arizona Republic because sometimes one gets straighter information there.

An editor may attempt to put an optimistic spin on the story by assigning a pollyannic headline, as in the article headlined "Valley job outlook tops state's" (subheadlined "Economists predict metro Phoenix to lead recovery"), but the information is frequently there in the story itself. For example, this very article informs the reader that:

In 2011 Metro Phoenix is expected to add 15,000 new jobs; and 24,600 in 2012.

In 2011 Tucson and nearby communities will add 200 new jobs; and 2,500 in 2012.

The rest of Arizona outside of Phoenix and Tucson should see 300 new jobs in 2011 and 2,800 in 2012.

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/10/10/20111010biz-phoenixjobs1010.html

That's just 15,500 for the entire state in 2011, and 29,900 in 2012.

By comparison, Arizona has lost about 300,000 jobs since late 2007 and only this year began to finally start adding jobs, according to an Arizona Republic story published at the end of last month.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2011/09/27/20110927arizona-entity-drives-effort-create-jobs.html

At the end of 2012, if this latest (downgraded) estimate proves correct, that will leave roughly 255,000 new jobs still to be generated just to get the state back to where it was five years previously.

Meanwhile, those tax cuts will result in substantially less state revenues -- probably far higher than the $538 million price tag estimated by a legislature using Voodoo Economics to project future economic growth and state revenues following the tax cuts, which they probably also expect to bring the housing market back to rip-roaring life.

On top of that: revenue losses from the expiration of the temporary sales tax on May 31, 2013, assuming that conservatives don't manage to repeal it before then. This was expected to bolster state revenues by about $1 billion a year through its three-year life, though that assumption proved exaggerated due to overly rosy assumptions regarding economic growth and consumer spending. Even so, put the two together and the state faces one hell of a revenue slump and thus continuing budget crisis.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Mr. Talton wrote:

"Arizona [once] actually exported things, from copper to produce and electronics. Were it not for Intel, the state wouldn't have anything to contribute to the world economy aside from being a holding pen for "I got mine" sociopaths from the Midwest."

This is a bit of an exaggeration. It's true that in 2010, Arizona's exports equalled only 1.2 percent of total U.S. exports. That said, all of those things (and a whole lot more) are still exported by Arizona. Here's a list of the top 25 of the state's exports from 2007 through 2010:

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/az.html

Note also (scroll down) that Mexico gets fully 1/3 of Arizona exports, followed by Canada (12.5%), China (6.6%),, and Germany/Singapore/United Kingdom in a three-way tie at 4.2% each.

[Rogue Columnist]

Emil,

If you want to get deep in the weeds, Arizona's exports totaled $15.6 billion in 2010, vs. $11.8 billion in 1999. Although they went up as high as $19.8 billion in 2008, this in no way tracks the much higher growth rate in population. One-third of this is dependent mostly on semiconductors, commodity items that are still made there because of a political/sentimental decision by Intel.

In addition, it falls behind comparable states. Washington in 2010: $53.4 billion; Massachusetts, $26.3 billion; Indiana, $28.7 billion. As trade has become more important to a high-wage, highly competitive economy, Arizona has, as usual, stagnated or underperformed.

I have neither the time nor the inclination to dig up historical data from the 1960s, but one can just look at patterns of the railroads to see that the state and especially metro Phoenix once sold more to the nation, at least, if not the world. The economy was more diverse and value-added, and the "carrying cost" of the population was much smaller.

[phxSUNSfan]

I saw Bill Bidwill downtown getting ready to make his entrance into Tom's Tavern. It seemed like quite the event. There were reporters, lights, red carpets, the whole shebang. He looked rather spiffy in a red jacket; I suspect he is there to support his son's new Restaurant and whatever event that is closed to the public. I wonder if the Bidwells miss the downtown lights, foot traffic, and buildings as opposed to the dead lots of Westgate? It's not downtown Seattle, but it's not bankrupted Westgate either.

The Bentleys, Maybachs, Mercedes, and exotic sports cars making their way downtown these last few weeks are intriguing...Why have their drivers decided to come down here now? There have been more sales at the multi-million dollar Chateau on Central as well. Could some of Phoenix' moneyed be giving up on the burbs?

As for all those new subdivisions planned for the extra-periphery: they are pipe-dreams. Those developers likely stand to lose money if they build to Tucson.

[mike doughty]

Is anyone surprised that although Mexico is our top export customer,we routinely demonize their people for coming here to wash our dishes and mow our lawns.You gotta love the Az. Legislature and Governor.If people get the government they deserve,Az. really has hit bottom.

[cal Lash]

While not yet noted in robots, Exaggeration is good for the HUMAN psyche and an everyday common occurrence in the activities of the feeble human race. As did the advent of agriculture doom the human race per Jared Diamond so did the real-estate construction industry doom the existence of a nice town once called the Valley of The Sun? But not to worry the exaggeration was on show at the CLASSY opening of Toms Tavern. What with Chicago Bill via Kansas City in attendance you know there is going to be a lot of wanabe fish swimming in that KOIpond. Like ole man Joe Kennedy I am sure Bill is happy to see his family doing well. I was unable to make the event as I was on top of South Mountain with my girlfriend taking samples of the air quality. But then the Bidwills probably didn’t serve beans. Let me know how Tom’s is doing in a couple of years.
PS, is that figure right a -57.4 for export of bombs and ammunition? I would think we are exporting to Mexico at least 50 percent of the guns and ammo they need to keep supplying the US with cheap and high quality illegal drugs.
Chapo for President.

[phxSUNSfan]

Cal, I rather the "exaggeration" happen in downtown than in Westgate or Scottsdale where the money is usually spent. I say, bring on more of their "exaggeration" to downtown; couldn't hurt.

[phxSUNSfan]

I don't think Russell Pearce will win in November. The Olivia Cortes controversy has exposed more of Pearce's warts and the Mormon Church is backing Lewis 100%. Lewis is a sensible leader and his disposition is much more welcoming compared to Pearce's ugliness and Scrooge-like demeanor.

[cal Lash]

Dear Phxsunfan, I agree with you, just as soon it be downtown Phoenix as Snotsdale or Los Campos de Westgate. I must confess here that I am a “holding pen Sociopath.” As I did arrive in Sunnyslope Arizona in 1950 from the “Midwest”. It is interesting that since the Bimpson, Pulliam and Rosenswieg, crowd did there thing 60 years ago the only two big shakers and movers have been two sports mogul boys from the Chicago outfit. The formula with the old boys was Walter the banker made sure the bucks were available, Eugene made sure everyone knew where Arizona was and Harry provided the zoning. I have a good read about Pulliam if you would like to borrow the book. To be honest with you I will float down to Tom’s with a friend for lunch and look it over. I did stop in for a Rosie burger at Portland’s a few nights ago and a glass of Kung Fu Girl. But mostly I spend my time eating at Gallo Blanco, Wildflower and Urban bean. Quaint places with local flavor and a lot of nice young and old people. Even though I am a sociopath, I am a desert rat loony sociopath and fantasize about the Valley of the Sun holding at the 200,000 folks that were in the valley when I got to town. That’s “town” nota megacity. Well got to get back to the “Good News” by Ed Abbey. Mas Tarde.
PS, I waiting Jon where’s your next book?

[phxSUNSfan]

Chicago money does have history in Phoenix; the Wrigley's and their mansion make that list.

[Rogue Columnist]

To clarify: Not everybody from the Midwest is a sociopath. It's a question of whether you will make Phoenix truly home, give of yourself to it, learn its history, conserve its best, fight for a quality future.

[cal Lash]

Thanks Jon, I always knew Ed Abbey was one of the good guys.

[soleri]

My folks came Joad-like into Phoenix 63 years ago from Oklahoma. They were not involved in community or its consevation but they contributed some of their own history to this place even if it was on the scandal side of the ledger. The fictional Joads were dirt-poor farmers kicked off their land. They went to California searching for milk and honey and found brutal cops, dishonest growers, and people just like themselves: dispossessed and hard-bitten, but durable.

I think the Joads or their descendants would be mostly Tea Partiers today. Once you lose the land, the land loses you. Phoenix is like that: a place that emptied itself of its stories and traditions to be a tourist camp for dreamers from someplace else. Soon the dreams were all manufactured, mostly in California, and we buried our own dreams in places no one could find them.

The sociopath of today is just someone who forgot where the ghosts dwell. So, instead of mourning the loss of connection to the land and its stories, he created a melodrama from politics and current events. This becomes his substitute story: once there was a beautiful country that evil people ruined. And it's that story that rules us from an impregnable redoubt of bitterness. Our stories once were personal and vivid. Now they're empty husks blown about in a dust bowl we can't escape.

[cal Lash]

and as I said Soleri the Hohokam ghosts await our arrival in the swirling dust. U sure you are not related to Harry Potter? great comment.

[terry dudas]

Yup - I'm sure feelin like a husk in a dust bowl.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Mr. Talton wrote:

"To clarify: Not everybody from the Midwest is a sociopath. It's a question of whether you will make Phoenix truly home, give of yourself to it, learn its history, conserve its best, fight for a quality future."

Pity the fool who simply moves here for the sunshine and comparatively low cost of living, without becoming a historian, an environmentalist, and a prophet. Imagine not simply being able to move here, as to any other state, without being required to become a scholarly, proactive, man for all seasons. (Lost behind the sun?)

Of course, I'm being facetious, just as Mr. Talton was in writing of midwestern sociopaths; but a nugget of truth remains in both.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Soleri wrote:

"I think the Joads or their descendants would be mostly Tea Partiers today. Once you lose the land, the land loses you."

Well, perhaps. You never know what you'll lose, down through the generations. But this doesn't sound like a Tea-Partier:

Tom Joad: I been thinking about us, too, about our people living like pigs and good rich land layin' fallow. Or maybe one guy with a million acres and a hundred thousand farmers starvin'. And I been wonderin' if all our folks got together and yelled...

Ma Joad: Oh, Tommy, they'd drag you out and cut you down just like they done to Casy.

Tom Joad: They'd drag me anyways. Sooner or later they'd get me for one thing if not for another. Until then...

Ma Joad: Tommy, you're not aimin' to kill nobody.

Tom Joad: No, Ma, not that. That ain't it. It's just, well as long as I'm an outlaw anyways... maybe I can do somethin'... maybe I can just find out somethin', just scrounge around and maybe find out what it is that's wrong and see if they ain't somethin' that can be done about it. I ain't thought it out all clear, Ma. I can't. I don't know enough.

Ma Joad: How am I gonna know about ya, Tommy? Why they could kill ya and I'd never know. They could hurt ya. How am I gonna know?

Tom Joad: Well, maybe it's like Casy says. A fellow ain't got a soul of his own, just little piece of a big soul, the one big soul that belongs to everybody, then...

Ma Joad: Then what, Tom?

Tom Joad: Then it don't matter. I'll be all around in the dark - I'll be everywhere. Wherever you can look - wherever there's a fight, so hungry people can eat, I'll be there. Wherever there's a cop beatin' up a guy, I'll be there. I'll be in the way guys yell when they're mad. I'll be in the way kids laugh when they're hungry and they know supper's ready, and when the people are eatin' the stuff they raise and livin' in the houses they build - I'll be there, too.

Ma Joad: I don't understand it, Tom.

Tom Joad: Me, neither, Ma, but - just somethin' I been thinkin' about.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0032551/quotes

Which reminds me, somehow, of Carl Sandburg:

The people so often sleepy, weary, enigmatic,
is a vast huddle with many units saying:
"I earn my living.
I make enough to get by
and it takes all my time.
If I had more time
I could do more for myself
and maybe for others.
I could read and study
and talk things over
and find out about things.
It takes time.
I wish I had the time."

http://glenavalon.com/peopleyes.html

My biggest problem with the movie quote above is the self-defeating argument of a collective soul; if you haven't got one of your own then you don't have anything to contribute...

[cal lash]

Well, Bidwill, Brewer, the Arizons Republic and the Supebowl clinches the mayors race for Bidwill,s boy, Wes Gullett. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Will the game at Tom's Tavern be eight ball or snooker?

[Emil Pulsifer]

Rogue,

I'll have a comment, surely, on your latest comment; but not tonight, since my remaining online time leaves nothing for research much less contemplation, creation, and editing.

[Emil Pulsifer]

P.S. Sorry: unaccountably vague. I meant, with regard to Mr. Talton's comment on Arizona exports.

[phxSUNSfan]

I thought about the implications of the Super Bowl in Arizona again. I read that the majority of the Bowl's events will be held in downtown this time. The Committee wanted to skip Scottsdale and the parties and concerts that happened on Scottsdale's waterfront and instead plan them near the arenas in Phoenix. The Superbowl Committee's chief complaint was that Glendale, Tempe, and Scottsdale are too far apart to make the entire experience convenient and exciting.

This brought the Arizona Superbowl Committee to make plans and promises to team owners that downtown Phoenix would be the epicenter for events in 2015. That certainly isn't Gullett's platform. The Super Bowl was sold on Arizona because of new hotels in downtown Phoenix, the light rail, the expanded Convention Center, and more projects inline for sites near CityScape; including two new towers with a "large retail anchor" in one building...Gullet factors little into this equation.

[phxSUNSfan]

Gullet has been a vocal critic of the light rail and the City's tax incentives to developers of CityScape and other downtown projects; things that enticed the bowl committee to return to Phoenix. Him trying to take credit now and away from Stanton, a vocal proponent of light rail and downtown investment, would be easily scooped. Phoenix voters (the little that show up to vote) have historically been more savvy than the typical Arizona voter.

[Rogue Columnist]

I have in the past weighed in with the conversation in the comments section. I'm beginning to think this is a mistake. I get my say in the blog post. You get yours in the comments section. So I will not comment unless there's a pressing need for clarity. The columns can speak for themselves, and if they're not clear, shame on me.

[cal lash]

Hope u right phxsunfan. But that was a Bidwell wearing a Gullet for mayor badge on his jacket.

Now i know why i have contributed nada
I go no soul.

[cal lash]

Hope u right phxsunfan. But that was a Bidwell wearing a Gullet for mayor badge on his jacket.

Now i know why i have contributed nada
I go no soul.

[phxSUNSfan]

I've had a feeling that Bidwell supported Gullett in order to get Phoenix money to build more infrastructure near and around Westgate. Including offering incentives similar to those given to CityScape developers. Possibly even "flipping" Gullett on light rail if he were to be elected in order to get Phoenix to pay for Glendale's section of LRT. Of course, this is all conjecture.

[azrebel]

Probably a good decision, Rogue.

If you was a pig farmer and you throwed a bucket of slop into the pen and you noticed you accidently throwed in a clean, wrapped candy bar and you jumped in to try to get that candy, you gonna git purdy muddy and yur gonna upset the pigs. Best you throw in the slop and stand back.

Just sayin.

[eclecticdog]

Four legs good, two legs better! Just be sure to pass those truffles along and enjoy your husks.

[cal lash]

Thats what the "PROs" do?

[azrebel]

In the 1500's the Spanish explorers came into the southwest and with them they brought germs which decimated the native population with small pox.

In the late 1900's MIdwestern explorers came into the southwest and with them they brought germs which decimated the native population with Cerebral-sclerosis, (Hardening of the attitude).

[Emil Pulsifer]

I hope Mr. Talton continues to weigh in during the comments phase. I enjoy the interactions between writer and readers and the follow-up gives all parties a chance to refine and enrich their arguments and understanding of the issues. I have a much greater sense of participation knowing that the writer may interact with readers than I do with any of the talking heads of the national media who remain aloof and unapproachable, which is only one of many reasons why I choose to spend online time here.

I don't think clarity is the issue: your blogs may be a model of clarity (and generally are) but no blog is comprehensive, and there may also be competing viewpoints. While I'm glad that the writer maintains a dignified distance with a confidence that doesn't require responding to every comment, withdrawing behind a veil of silence between blogs would not only disenchant but would also deprive readers of the process of thesis / antithesis / synthesis that occasionally improves one's grasp of a subject.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Mr. Talton wrote:

"I have neither the time nor the inclination to dig up historical data from the 1960s, but one can just look at patterns of the railroads to see that the state and especially metro Phoenix once sold more to the nation, at least, if not the world. The economy was more diverse and value-added, and the "carrying cost" of the population was much smaller."

I'd love to find Arizona export data over a historical period dating back to the 1960s (if anyone has a link please post it). You might well be right, though I'm not sure whether the decline of railroads says as much about Arizona's service to the nation or the world as it does about changes in shipping methods over time.

More recently, "between 1997 and 2004, Arizona's exports as a percentage of GDP were always above the national average. The trend inverted in 2004 and has remained since then." See Graph 2:

http://azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu/AZE10Q1/AZ_Export.aspx

So, the problem seems to date back years rather than decades. Note, however, that even after 2004 Arizona's exports were pretty close to the national average for a few years: 0.3% below in 2005 and identical in 2006. By 2008 the split is substantial, but the question is, why?

If you look at the graph for 2007 and 2008 you see that Arizona's exports as a percentage of state GDP are stable for those two years; it's the national average that swells. Did other states suddenly become big exporters, even during the recession? Or was it simply that the decline in other economic sectors made exports a bigger percentage of other states' GDP? In the latter case, the split is an artifact. Note also that the recession, which has hit Arizona particularly hard, doesn't seem to have spared its export sector, which has took a hard nose-dive after 2008. That hasn't been true for some of the other "comparable" states Mr. Talton listed: Washington state's 2010 exports have a greater dollar value than its 2007 exports. Same for Massachusetts and Indiana. By contrast, the dollar value of Arizona's 2010 exports is way below the 2007 level. Why haven't Arizona's exports recovered?

Mr. Talton wrote:

"One-third of this [Arizona's exports] is dependent mostly on semiconductors, commodity items that are still made there because of a political/sentimental decision by Intel."

One third of Arizona's exports fall into the category "computers and electronic equipment", which includes semiconductors. Intel is not the only producer in the state (there are other large companies and countless small ones), and I doubt very much whether a corporation like Intel makes decisions on manufacturing location based on factors such as sentiment, or local politics. Presumably it could locate in other states, but instead, hasn't it recently opened new plants here?

[Rogue Columnist]

Emil,

Throw Hagelianism at me and I can't resist.

My point about the Midwesterners may seem harsh. But yes, I do hold them to high standards. Arizona's population skyrocketed, but its population of true stewards didn't keep up; indeed, it fell. The Arizona that people come to for sun and "to be left alone" would not exist were it not for a disproportionately large population at one time that collectively and individually acted to build a civilization there.

Today's problem is particularly exacerbated by the super-rich, part-time residents who do not engage. Do not give back. But it extends even to the average schmo who still considers Minnesota, or Iowa, or wherever, to be "home." It's the resort culture I have written of, and it's poison given the state's crying needs.

Re trade. Something else to noodle over is Arizona's standing in attracting foreign direct investment. It represented 76,500 jobs in 2008. Colorado, with less population, had 85,400. Washington, with the same pop., 91,200. South Carolina, which has aggressively sought FDI: 107,200.

[Emil Pulsifer]

Thanks for that Mr. Talton. I occasionally feel in the mood to play devil's advocate, but phrased that way it's difficult to disagree.

Whether they come from the midwest or back east, and whether rich or not, there are some cultural attitudes which do not transplant well -- such as (frankly racist) reactions to large numbers of brown-skinned Spanish-speakers they aren't used to and refuse to adapt to. The same thing applies to knee-jerk conservatism whether homegrown or imported.

I'll defer to your knowledge of migration patterns since I've never made a study of where most Arizona emigrants come from (probably depends on the period in question, too) but there has been a substantial rightward shift in the state's politics in recent decades, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this were in significant part due to the attitudes of those raised elsewhere -- those who have little understanding of, or patience with, cultures and subcultures of the desert southwest (and their Arizona nuances), to say nothing of the sorts of regional, state, and local problems you regularly bring to light.

[cal lash]

Did u all see Bill Shovers blistering attack on gov Brewer in yesterdays Republic?

[Web design sydney]

I don't think clarity is the issue: your blogs may be a model of clarity (and generally are) but no blog is comprehensive, and there may also be competing viewpoints.. .