I taught at a small college in Oklahoma years ago, then started my journalism "career" there. One of the first things I learned is that Oklahoma, along with Singapore, has the most intense thunderstorms in the world along with their attendant tornadoes. Nearly every day in the spring and early summer, they form atop New Mexico's spookily beautiful Caprock bluffs and then move east. So many days I would see a black line along the horizon in the morning. In the middle of the day, the darkness might be so complete that the streetlights would come on. Tornado watches were routine; warnings and sirens things to dread. Drenching rain, golfball-sized hail and then violent wind were commonplace during the season. People watched carefully for the formation of a funnel — if they could see the sky in the darkness and rain. Major damage was more rare in the rolling woods of the eastern part of the state; west of I-35, watch out. The movie Twister, for all of Helen Hunt's considerable charms, doesn't even begin to capture the terrifying majesty of an Oklahoma storm.
All the old-timers had Tornado Alley lore. About pieces of straw driven through telephone poles. About the freak contingency of the storms: How one side of a street might be leveled and the other look as if nothing at all were amiss. About cars picked up and put down yet the occupants lived. And the little towns that once existed before being swept off the map. Every town has a section that is prone to get hit. Soon you learned your own storm wisdom, such as the strange color of the sky after a twister-laden front had moved past. Before coming to Arizona Territory in the late 19th century, my great-grandparents lived in Indian Territory, the eastern half of what became the state of Oklahoma. A tornado was my grandmother's earliest memory: Of being carried into a shelter before the monster leveled the little settlement, killing one of her sisters.
I think about this in the aftermath of the Joplin, Mo., tornado. The region suffers through the occasional bad year, where the most intense level of tornadoes can even destroy brick buildings. The so-called "super outbreak" of 1974 is the prime example, where 148 twisters struck 13 states on April 3 and 4. There was Terrible Tuesday in 1979, when an EF-4 — reportedly five-miles wide at one point — lethally struck the suburban edge of Wichita Falls, Texas. It was part of a storm that ravaged the Red River Valley, coming way too close to the little college town where I lived. Now we're living through another super outbreak year: Nearly 1,000 tornadoes and 500 dead. Or we're entering something different.
I used Mapquest and Google Earth to check out the path of the Joplin tornado. It didn't hit the heart of the town, but the newer areas. A Super Wal-Mart was destroyed, and Bentonville doesn't tend to place these monsters in established neighborhoods. One piece of tornado lore is that many towns were laid out on former tribal villages or areas known to have been relatively immune to the worst of the storms. It's no guarantee: One lethal tornado in the 1974 outbreak hit the heart of Xenia, Ohio, and downtown Fort Worth suffered at least a microburst a few years ago. But the degree of sprawl and larger populations are undeniable, as is, in most cases, the lack of caring about the older parts of towns. So we can expect more damage in the years ahead. The target zone has become much, much bigger. (And I wonder how many of these crapola tract houses have basements).
But is this a freak year or the start of more severe tornado outbreaks as a routine? The rational answer is, we don't know yet. Climate science is imprecise. Even if there's no serious scientific debate as to whether climate change is real, happening and man-made, assessing the consequences is more difficult. One report predicts a rise in tornado activity. Consensus will take time. And serious discussions are consigned to places where the infrequently energized American voter rare reads.
The so-called deniers don't need no rational answers. Consensus is dogma. To Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, climate change is "the greatest hoax ever perpetrated." Thanks to lawmakers like him, along with the science whores, publicists and "think tanks" funded by the fossil fuels industry, we don't want to know. Add a big shout-out to a largely lazy, incurious and, in some cases, bought-off media. All these have also been big players in the lack of sensible land use and the spread of sprawl, whatever its environmental consequences, other externalities and, now, weather risks (add river flooding to this list). We only want science if it reinforces drivin' and house-buildin' and Super Wal-Mart and NASCAR.
The earth and it's climate change on a planetary scale and at a planetary pace. In the same way that we do not concern ourselves with the two week life span of a fly, the earth cares little about our 75 year span. Planets speak in units of billions of years.
What has changed at an unnatural pace is the number of people, who by random chance cross paths with earth's rumblings and weather events.
Too many people.
Too many people.
Too many people.
When something in nature becomes unnatural. Nature, without malice, makes a correction.
Corrections really hurt.
God bless the victims and families of these terrible storms.
Posted by: azrebel | May 25, 2011 at 09:16 PM
The Visible Hand of Entropy clenches.
Posted by: Rate Crimes | May 26, 2011 at 05:05 AM
Entropy "the degree of disorder or randomness in the system."
Out of Chaos comes a unknown degree of order but I prefer a statement made by one of my two Indian native wives, remarking on the 100 year flood plain near Scottsdale, AZ. “My people are not so stupid as to set up a tepee in a river bed.” As a kid in Iowa, storm cellars were where we went during a twister. No storm cellar, then lay down in a ditch as the storm follows the natural contours of the earth and seemingly strikes at raised oddities above the ground surface. My Grandfather was in a barn full of mules when it was destroyed by a tornado, all the mules died, may grandfather lost his left eye after being struck by a flying mule heel. There were no doctors or hospitals. He survived and died in his eighties bearing the face of a man smashed in by nature’s unpredictable forces. I have seen straw drilled straight into board planks. I certainly agree with azrebels above statements but as some on this blog would say, we come from that pessimistic group known as “old guys.” Religious driven nut job, Senator Jim Inhofe qualifies for a religious liftoff. If only his god would find a twister for him. I am back from Tejas where the wind does blow. In the 100 books I left my grandkids are some books on Weather and its disorderly conduct. Good piece Jon at least for us old history buffs.
Posted by: cal Lash | May 26, 2011 at 08:50 AM
Surprisingly, NOAA doesn't seem to find any connection between more severe events and climate change. They refer to stuff like the La Nina effect. Did I just stop Googling too soon?
Posted by: morecleanair | May 26, 2011 at 09:05 AM
Thanks for the definition cal. I thought Rate was talking about what happens to your hand when it is in a cast for a few months.
Posted by: azrebel | May 26, 2011 at 10:08 AM
NOAA lost all credibility with me (not that it had a lot to begin with) when they sold us out in the gulf by stating "Oh my! All the oil is gone. We looked out our window here in DC and we can't see a drop of oil. So, as government scientists we deduce that it is gone. Good times are here again!!"
Posted by: azrebel | May 26, 2011 at 10:56 AM
Even McKibben is calling global wierding (a.k.a. "global climate disruption") "climate change" . . .
"A link between climate change and Joplin tornadoes? Never!"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-link-between-climate-change-and-joplin-tornadoes-never/2011/05/23/AFrVC49G_story.html
Posted by: Rate Crimes | May 26, 2011 at 02:21 PM
I think the advantage of the pattern-finding mind is that even when we're wrong, which is most of the time, we can at least be curious about why things happen. What is odd about the current string of surreal weather events involves the remarkable degree of incuriosity among those who could otherwise divine a cataclysm from a chicken's entrails. Record drought over here, record precipitation over there, record cyclonic activity and record ocean temperatures. Gee? You think something kinda weird is happening?
The SCIENCE of climate change is not about certitude. It's about probability. And it's been telling us these weird weather events will become more frequent as the atmosphere and oceans heat up. This is not a matter of "liberal" scientists mocking God-fearing morons in Missouri. It's about physics. It's about things we can measure and know with confidence. Convesely, denialism is about things it can ridicule as "booklearnin'" and "pointy-headed intellectuals" telling us stuff we'd prefer not to know.
There is an element of poetic justice (if not schadenfreude) when Bible Belt denialists bear the brunt of nature's mechanistic fury. God doesn't protect the innocent and optimistic from random acts of molecules. It doesn't protect God's favorite nation and planet from human activity upsetting exquisite balances in global climate systems. A nation in thrall to easy answers from charlatans like Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck will find out the hard way. Here's wishing they learn hard, fast, and decisively.
Posted by: soleri | May 26, 2011 at 04:46 PM
Weather and climate, while related, are not the same thing. That is what we often hear from scientist and it is very true. It is also immensely confusing to those who have little grasp of math and science. However, we cannot directly correlate these storms with global warming as much as we can with rising ocean levels and temperatures, and the increasing measurements of CO2 in arctic ice core samples. Science is not a religion and rightly, we do not believe, hope, or jump to conclusions based on loose data.
Posted by: phxSUNSfan | May 26, 2011 at 06:10 PM
Speaking of the Arctic, Barry Lopez's "Arctic Dreams" is a worthy read. His most recent fictional work, "Resistance", is as well.
Posted by: Rate Crimes | May 26, 2011 at 08:24 PM
Thanks Soleri, that's what I was trying to say. And you did it so well.
Posted by: cal Lash | May 26, 2011 at 08:46 PM
Just got my first comment censored on AZCentral.
I expressed my wish that congress burn in hell for extending the Patriot Act.
Time to head for a higher elevation and get away from all this.
Posted by: azrebel | May 27, 2011 at 12:10 AM
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/26/twisters-tale/?ref=opinion
One of things I had been hoping for was a catastrophe bad enough to galvanize attention, but not one so bad that it made collective action impossible. These tornadoes might be it. It's not a matter of proving global warming produced them. It's a matter of showing that the likelihood of destructive weather will increase as the atmosphere and oceans warm up. In other words, welcome to THIS future and probably worse.
Posted by: soleri | May 27, 2011 at 06:28 AM
soleri,
I don't know when it stared, maybe our generation was the first, the boomers. The generational relay of important, basic information about how to survive on this planet stopped being received by the new generation. Maybe moving to cities and becoming dumbed down made it hard for the old generation to pass on the information. Old timers know about weather such as tornados. The folks in the new cities don't think tornados would have the audacity to hit a city. Maybe that's why only 3% of homes in tornado alley have a storm shelter.
I am not without blame. I still feel guilty to this day for losing a home in the Rodeo-Chedeski fire. I can just hear the voices of my ancestors, "What? You built a home among the trees in a forest without clearing a fire break around the structure. You built IN THE TREES? What are you, an idiot???"
We're devolving and you know what nature does to those who devolve? Just ask the Dodo bird.
Posted by: azrebel | May 27, 2011 at 07:50 AM
As our Valley grows warmer, the Bad Ozone also grows. When the number exceeds 100, there's significant cause for concern. Those of us with respiratory issues are well-advised to stay indoors. Today's the 2nd or 3rd in a series of soft-pedaled "alerts" and "warnings". The Republic's weather website has conveniently omitted air quality information. Who'd want to discourage folks from driving over this holiday weekend? It would be un-'Merican! Once again we sense the invisible hand of the omnipotent Real Estate Booster Club.
Posted by: morecleanair | May 27, 2011 at 09:29 AM
"It's a matter of showing that the likelihood of destructive weather will increase as the atmosphere and oceans warm up. In other words, welcome to THIS future and probably worse." Soleri
Agreed, the problem with weather patterns and attributing them to global warming is that we don't know how weather will be affected over time. Will next year progressively get worse for tornadoes and flooding? And will the year after that be even worse? Or will there be more droughts, as some scientists have been modeling, for the Midwest and a possible return of the dust bowl? This is why most scientist today will not say, yes, these tornadoes are due to global warming and the nation will experience more of this in the future.
What we do know is that global warming is occurring at an unnatural pace due to pollution and human activity. The natural cooling and heating of the earth is well documented throughout history: Romans marched toward the Rhineland over the Alps with little difficulty at times because many high passes in the Alps were not covered with snow year round and glacial activity during some centuries was more sporadic. The earth was much warmer then.
The problem today is population growth and the quickening pace of warming. We don't have the time to react to our changing environments; therefore, it will be devastating to human population centers on every continent.
Posted by: phxSUNSfan | May 27, 2011 at 03:52 PM
PSF, while we can't know anything with certainty, we can know some things in terms of probability. That's why computer models are critical here. If warmer air holds more moisture, storms will tend to be more violent. Drought, which is forecast for the desert Southwest, will be the flip side of that phenomenon - drier air currents aloft moving in places at increasingly higher latitudes. Now, maybe some years will be wetter, or some drier, but what we can safely assert is that sea levels will rise, glaciers will continue melting, and desertification will worsen.
Because Big Oil's disinformation campaign (not to mention the Republican noise machine) has persuaded a majority of Americans that there is no real issue here, the problems will go unaddressed. We need vivid examples and alarmist rhetoric if we're going to have any hope of countering these trends. Whether we can conclusively explain every weather phenomenon as related to global warming isn't the issue. The issue is that we're already running out of critical time. I'd rather err on the side of scientific nicety than incur further disasters to Earth's ecosystems and climates. It's probably too late as it is. If we don't scream, we're not going to avert a looming catastrophe several short decades in the future. Don't worry about being absolutely certain here because it's unlikely anyone is going to notice. What they'll notice is you hedging your bets and decide that it's probably not that serious anyway.
Posted by: soleri | May 27, 2011 at 04:47 PM
Something to really watch is Siberia, where climate change is thawing the permafrost, threatening to release methane, which will only increase the feedback loop.
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | May 27, 2011 at 04:48 PM
Soleri, I think the only small but significant thing we disagree about it what we need to scream to those that don't believe in global warming. If we pin hopes on these type of weather disasters (occurring more frequently) and those predictions turn out incorrect or only periodic, then the disbelievers will continue to disbelieve.
They will say, "see this year is dry and dusty but next year might be the worst flooding in the Mississippi's course since the building of the ancient serpent mounds." It is important to stress that more violent storms for the earth are likely, but also that more unpredictable weather will also follow.
Posted by: phxSUNSfan | May 27, 2011 at 05:04 PM
Hate to be the pessimist (again) but education is out and ignorance is in. In Brazil A few days ago the greedy and ignorant sent another message to environmentalists, quit or we will kill you. I hear that kind of talk regularly from very angry local foes of protecting the environment. And most of those folks also belong to the NRA and God.
Posted by: cal Lash | May 27, 2011 at 06:31 PM
If you want to hear the anger out there, go undercover as a militant right wing agent of god. The ignorant make a lot of bad assumptions based on appearance consequently I fit right into their perception as of one of them!
Posted by: cal Lash | May 27, 2011 at 06:35 PM
Somehow, religion gets a bad rap in discussions of climate change denial. One of George Carlin's last gigs was a rant against God. It made for good theater, but mainly profiled the evangelical right whack-a-doodles. Then there's the progressive school of theology (pastors like Jack Spong and Dom Crossan) that tends to debunk segments of the Bible as metaphor and woo-woo. They maintain that the Bible "should be taken seriously but not literally". belong to one of those churches and it is like a breath of fresh air. They support social justice issues like gay rights and don't always vote Republican!
Posted by: morecleanair | May 28, 2011 at 07:48 AM
morecleanair, in my 70 years of travels I have experienced attempted drowning by many "christian" religions. And I am an amateur student of world religions. I have spent many an hour with religious clergy and found most to be well educated and fairly liberal at least in their personal lives out of sight of I least in their personal lives out of sight of the congregation. I have had discussions with a number of clergy that I think do not actually believe in the god as depicted in the world’s religions. I have acquaintances that believe Jesus was a terrorist.
I kinda like the Hopi religion but don’t take it seriously. Around the Xmas holidays I watch Elmer Gantry for entertainment and to remind me of the evangelists that came through small Midwest towns with their tent shows. Leaving behind a trail of looting and sexually deviances. I have had the experience of out running a religious pedophile (The tent fire depicted in the movie, Elmer Gantry reminds me of the whackos that got fired in Waco. Thanks for the info on liberal religious places but I’ll get my religion on my recumbent or on top of a mountain in a lighting storm where you can get really close to the “power.”
Posted by: cal Lash | May 28, 2011 at 10:05 AM
Morecleanair: I'm a Christian and I'm not a nut. My faith only strengthens my sense of stewardship and the duty to address these many environmental disasters we are bringing on ourselves by our own free agency.
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | May 28, 2011 at 01:51 PM
Jon: what you said! Or do the hipsters say "WORD"?
Posted by: morecleanair | May 28, 2011 at 02:56 PM
"Free agency" I had this discussion with a Unitarian clergy person on top of a mountain that overlooks 4 SE states. I had this meeting while backpacking across America in 95-96 and was invited to this retreat by a North Carolina anthropologist professor. I am a militant agnostic but hopefully I will be able to tell the “good” Christian stewards from the “others” as I pass through the land of great Saguaros and the sands of time.
Posted by: cal Lash | May 28, 2011 at 09:02 PM
Funny Cal, a lightning bolt crashed a few yards away from me on Camelback a few (or more) years ago. Scared off the two fellas in front of me, but I didn't think it should spoil a good hike.
For all: Does anyone know the quote from General Sherman about Arizona?
Posted by: eclecticdog | May 28, 2011 at 09:47 PM
Nevermind the quote -- I think I found it (thanks to Google Books):
At Maricopa, 23 October 1880
Sherman: "What a hell of a country!"
Capt. Hancock of Phoenix: "Why General, it is not such a bad country; we have to the north a rich agricultural valley and mines. Possibly Arizona is a bit warm, but all she needs is more water and better immigration."
Sherman: "Huh! Less heat! More water! Better society! That’s all hell needs!"
Thus Captain Hancock is probably the granddaddy of all AZ real estate scams and dirty development deals, SB1070, and of the Rogue Columnist blog!
Posted by: eclecticdog | May 28, 2011 at 10:51 PM
Electricdog: Hancock was talking about the location in Texas where they named a Fort after him? Only Mere mortals would leave the mountain. Whats a few lighting bolts among us gods. Mere mortals have trouble with intense electrical currents. I remember the farm boy contest where we would grab the electric (animal) fence and see who could hold on the longest.
If you hold on strongly and long enough your hands and arms up to your elbows become numb and you cant feel a thing.
Gordon J Liddy from Sarah Palins new homeland, Scottsdale, AZ
Posted by: cal Lash | May 29, 2011 at 08:18 AM
Sherman also said if he owned both hell and Texas, he would live in hell and rent out Texas.
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | May 29, 2011 at 08:58 AM
Sherman sounds similar to his fellow Ohioans of today who have emigrated to Arizona...except, these Ohioans don't leave so easily!
Posted by: phxSUNSfan | May 29, 2011 at 12:41 PM
Cal,
Capt. Hancock and Gen'l Sherman were on a train stopped at Maricopa, AZ. Hancock evidently was an early Phoenix settler, the first store in Phoenix being a rented room in his adobe around 1st & Washington:
http://books.google.com/books?id=53kUAAAAYAAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false
Posted by: eclecticdog | May 30, 2011 at 11:09 AM
A small bio on page 270 in my above link.
PSF -- If it weren't for air conditioning no midwesterners or alaskans would live here!
I like Sherman's take on TX too! Thanks.
Posted by: eclecticdog | May 30, 2011 at 11:12 AM
Hope you all had a great weekend and are enjoying Memorial Day. About to fire up the grill as it has been very cool here in Phoenix this spring.
E-dog, I'm sure mid-westerners would live here September through April/May (or this year until June) after which it would get too hot without A/C...
Posted by: phxSUNSfan | May 30, 2011 at 03:46 PM
Just for the record, even though I have been here 61 years I am from Iowa and I love da heat. Hancock and I used to hunt the desert North of Sunnyslope. Wayne Hancock.
Posted by: cal Lash | May 30, 2011 at 08:05 PM
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-29/global-climate-change-freak-storms-are-the-new-normal/#
Posted by: soleri | May 30, 2011 at 09:33 PM