Post-crash Phoenix snapshots

Starting Tuesday, we'll get a huge data dump from the 2010 Census. We will learn, for example, whether Phoenix remains the nation's fifth most populous city or if it has been eclipsed by San Antonio. The dear hopes of boosters, that it would surpass Houston at No. 4 (as if raw population alone was a gold standard), won't happen. But the American Community Survey, a useful in-depth report on a variety of areas, came out this week with information through 2009.

The main city of the metro area is poorer than in 2000. In Phoenix, 18.2 percent of the population is below the poverty line; for children, the number is 26.3, well above the state's shocking 20.8 percent. In 1999, the overall number was 15.8 percent. In Colorado, by comparison, the 2009 rate is 15.7 percent (26.4 percent in Denver) and Washington state's 15.3 percent (12.4 percent in Seattle).

The fall in median household income from 2000 to 2009 is widespread across the metro area. Much of Maryvale saw drops of 25 percent or more. But most of Peoria and Glendale didn't fare much better. In Scottsdale, McCormick Ranch Census tracks saw declines from 16 percent to 24 percent. Most of Ahwatukee saw incomes nosedive up to 26 percent from 2000. Rises in formerly rural areas are entirely an artifice of more people moving into new subdivisions. Interestingly, central Phoenix saw an income rise (up 17 percent in Willo/Alvarado and 9 percent in Palmcroft), going along with a national trend.

Many people remained at work despite the depressed economy. The employment-to-population ratio in Phoenix is 69.5 percent vs. a metro area of 70.7. In Seattle, the ratio is 75.6.

Phoenix has caught the majority of the immigrants among the metro area's major cities. Nearly 29 percent of the city's population is foreign born, the vast majority (nearly 80 percent) from Mexico. In Gilbert, that number is 8.5 percent, 16.3 percent in Tucson and 14.7 percent for the entire state. In Phoenix, 32.8 percent of those five and older speak Spanish at home.

Still, the percent of the population listed as "white alone" (i.e., not also Hispanic) is 77.6 percent statewide, and 76.7 percent in Phoenix, a benefit of the 500-square-mile city's vast new subdivisions north of the traditional Salt River Valley.

Arizona and Phoenix appear slightly younger than the nation a a whole. Unfortunately much of this is skewed by the large, unskilled, poorly educated underclass. It doesn't answer the questions of whether Phoenix is attracting the most talented young, or attracting them in numbers commensurate with it's size as a city (doubtful). The state's median age is 34.8; Phoenix is slightly younger (31.2). Some 12.9 percent is 65 and older statewide, but only 7.8 percent in the city. Sun City, not surprisingly, comes in at 72 percent (and 82 percent for Sun City West). Other age-oases include Scottsdale (18.4), Paradise Valley (20.6), Mesa (13.9) and Fountain Hills (23.4). Gilbert, with its young families, LDS and others, has only 5.3 percent senior citizens. In rural Arizona, Quartzite is nearly 57 percent 65 and older. Nationally, 12.6 percent are 65 or older, and the median age is 36.5.

Not surprisingly, the car remains king. In Phoenix, 73.2 percent drive alone to work, but that's lower than the state (75) and the suburbs. But 3.7 percent use public transit, a wild achievement considering most Arizona suburbs and towns come in at zero. An exception: Tempe, at 5.4 percent. Seattle's rate is 18.3 percent, and Portland's 12.4 percent.

Educational attainment remains a competitive disadvantage. Only 24 percent of Phoenix city residents have a bachelor's degree, a two point improvement over 2000. In Mesa, a city more populous than Minneapolis, 22.9 percent (the big twin in Minnesota has 43 percent of the population with BAs). Here the better-off 'burbs, not surprisingly, do much better: Gilbert (37.8 percent, Litchfield Park (42.4), Scottsdale (50.5), Paradise Valley (68.8). Statewide, the percentage is 25.7 percent. By comparison, 30.8 percent of people in Washington state have bachelor's degrees, and 54.3 percent of Seattlites.

This is only a series of snapshots of our big wayward place. I throw it out and you can make of it what you will.

 

 

Comments

[azrebel]

Folks, I'm heading to the hills for the holidays. Need to finish my survival bunker in the mountains. I would like to wish all of you the most Contrarian Christmas possible. I really like that label. May have to get a t-shirt made with it. Seriously, Merry Christmas and Happy New year to all of you. See you in 2011.

[soleri]

Here's The New York Times' survey of the same data but with more entertaining graphics:
http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/explorer?ref=censusbureau

Transfer payments from the federal government, particularly in health care, are keeping Arizona's economy afloat. As such, they keep our population growing (if much more modestly than during the Great Boom). It's the trendlines that should really catch out attention since inertia is a fact we can't easily spin. Since Arizona's economy is based on a quasi-libertarian model favoring low wages, cheap growth, and low investment, none of this should surprise.

[Wrathful God]

"I throw it out and you can make of it what you will."

Run.

[phxSUNSfan]

I'm actually surprised by these numbers. For Phoenix to have bared the brunt of much immigration, including illegal I expected the poverty rate to be higher. It is somewhat shocking that Denver's poverty rate is 26.4% while Phoenix' is 18.2% and Seattle's is 12.4%.

I also found this interesting in the community survey:

"Median household incomes in 185 of the 234 counties (79.1 percent) in the country’s 25 largest
metropolitan areas were above the national 75th percentile. In eight of the 25 largest Metropolitan
areas (Phoenix, Arizona; Los Angeles, California; Riverside-San Bernadino, California; Sacramento,
California; San Francisco, California; Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota; Portland-Vancouver, Oregon;
Seattle, Washington) all counties that comprised the metropolitan areas were in the national top
quartile."

http://www.census.gov/did/www/saipe/data/highlights/files/saipe_highlights_2009.pdf

When I have time I'll look at the data closer, but it seems that the metro area/urban area/and principal city poverty rates are mixed. Seattle (principal city) looks like it has a higher poverty rate than Phoenix (principal city). This doesn't account for Seattle's exploding homeless populations (mainly, children, teens). In contrast Phoenix' homeless population has shrunk.

Soleri's NYTimes map is a very cool tool. I think it is misleading to say that Phoenix population estimates and white population is somehow skewed by its land size (500 sq miles). If you look at the census map, less than 80,000 people live in far north Phoenix (north of the loop 101). In fact, less than 100,000 people live south and near the Loop 101).

Nearly 1.3 million people live in a relatively small area of the city Metro Center area and south. This means that most of Phoenix' 1.6 million residents live in about 200 square miles (about 8,000/sq mile).

Also, San Antonio is not the nearest city in terms of population to Phoenix, Philadelphia still holds the sixth most populous city spot. The 2010 early released population counts are this:

Houston: 2.2 million
Phoenix: 1.63 million
Philladelphia: 1.52 million
San Antonio: 1.3 million

It was never predicted that Phoenix would surpass Houston this decade since Houston has been hovering around 2 million people for a very long time.

Soleri, do you have comparisons of Arizona's share of Federal dollars compared to other states. From recent Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Republic columns I've read, Arizona's share of federal dollars is among the lowest in the country.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2010/11/22/phoenix-population-steady-at-no-5.html

[phxSUNSfan]

Edit:

This means that most of Phoenix' 1.6 million residents live in about 200 square miles (about 8,000/sq mile).

Correction:

1.3 million residents live in about 200 square miles (about 6,500/sq mile).

[krazy bill]

"Post-crash"? The view from central Phoenix is that the crash is not over.

[Rate Crimes]

Is it even 'mid-crash'?

[koreyel]

Suggestion: Read the post looking for Joe Arpaio's raison d'être. I feel sure it's lurking in the data...