I'll wrap up my trip back home with the question that started it: What now?
In numerous conversations with the well-connected and just average 'Zonies, nobody has an answer. "Every time things seem to be improving, we take a step back," said one prominent player. "We have an unerring ability to shoot ourselves in the head." I would add: "And reload." While the state is very different from metro Phoenix in many ways, economically it has become an even less diverse mirror of it, depending on population growth, housing and tourism. The "plan," such as there is one, seems to be hoping the Growth Machine can sputter to life for one more good run. The white-right rhetoric about cutting taxes and regulation to gain business is nonsense: If that were the key, Mississippi and Somalia would be economic giants. The reality: There's no plan B.
In my old haunts, every little triumph is offset by a heartbreak or moronic misstep. Some new restaurants have set up along the light-rail line — wish some productive businesses or headquarters with high-wage jobs would do so. The historic districts continue to hold on, despite scads of "for-sale" signs. ASU downtown seems there to stay, no small accomplishment. Yet the number of empty storefronts is astounding, a sign of the lack of capital coming to the city. The city can't afford to keep up iconic Encanto Park while what was the shady oasis adjacent to the Viad tower has been turned into a horrid faux desert radioactive zone. Every time someone throws down rocks and removes shade trees and grass from the old city, it only increases the heat island and decreases the livability. "We're in a desert!!" No, Mr. or Ms. Transplant, old Phoenix was always an oasis.
Scottsdale seems to motor on with its affluent white people: The federal bailouts of the old order have been very good to the rich. The coveys of miniskirted young women prowl the nightspots. I always wonder, what's their stories? It's not as if they work day jobs at the software or biotech clusters that Phoenix doesn't have. Yet even Scottsdale's budget is suffering and it's not as if this apartheid enclave can support a huge metropolitan area. Scottsdale has become a civic black hole. It sucks in retail sales and much of the limited capital invested in metro Phoenix, while emitting nothing.
What now? No other state as populous as Arizona is so dependent on government, whatever the propaganda of the white-right. Thus, the state fiscal crisis is a disproportionate drag on the economy. Tax revenues have never been adjusted to the needs of a populous, heavily urbanized state, so there's no stopping draconian cutbacks despite the temporary sales tax. But Arizona's woes go deeper. It is a creation of the federal government, and no place more so than Phoenix, social-engineering spawn of the Newlands Act. For much of the 20th century, Arizona developed a private economy proportionate to its population, an example of the good government can do. For example, Flagstaff had the Santa Fe railroad and the lumber industry. Phoenix had agriculture, aerospace, transistors and semiconductors, some manufacturing. Almost all of this was subverted and subsumed by the Growth Machine, itself a federally subsidized endeavor. Social Security makes up a huge part of the state's economy now. The military and military contractors are also substantial players. (Unfortunately, Arizona most wanted the CAP, then the new "conservatives" wanted to deny Arizona's need for federal help, so the state didn't get the high-end federal work that went elsewhere). Now the federal government's tapped out. It can't rescue Arizona.
Metro Phoenix is the creation of a different America and a specific moment in history. A Sun Belt migration by millions of retirees who wanted a "lifestyle" their grandchildren and great-grandchildren will likely find repugnant — and they probably can't afford it anyway. That was the America of dependable pensions, stock holdings in secure companies, a career with steadily improving wages and safe Social Security and Medicare. The moment was defined by cheap and abundant energy: Gasoline to empower sprawl (the worst living arrangement one could image for a desert city) and power for air conditioning. That's going fast, with the BP catastrophe flashing the warning light. Americans won't pay attention. But one has to wonder about the medium-term prospects for places such as Phoenix, once gas hits $10 a gallon and keeps rising. And if it doesn't, that's because the economy is in a long depression that will hit the aging Sun Belt growth stars hardest. All this as the consequences of climate change creep forward.
Today's economy in Phoenix and Arizona is worse than the 1990 "apocalypse." Alas, the state squandered that warning, starting the decade with some ambitious plans to diversify the economy, ending it drunk on population growth. The 2001 recession was another red flag. But hot money flew into real estate and we were off to the races again. Despite a few signal improvements, the 2000s were largely wasted. The Phoenix Biosciences Campus was not built out (one new building has finally been started) to become a major jobs generator. The "meds and eds" strategy was not pursued. Neither state nor city could be persuaded to, say, open a business-relocation office in Southern California, go after Hollywood productions or employ proven economic-development tools. Commuter rail never happened. Amtrak still doesn't go through Phoenix. Urban problems got worse. The human capital of the working poor was squandered. All this and more could have been funded by a modest real-estate transfer tax and higher taxes on the idle rich. The decade was wasted.
Now the politics are so extreme that progress seems impossible. Many people disagree with this turn of affairs, but they are enough? Or will they remain in foxholes just trying to preserve the remaining gems of the state from the white-right vandals? No state needs to be discussing a new definition of growth more than Arizona. It's not happening. No state needs to be resetting itself for a very different future than its recent past. Yet in Arizona, "sustainability" means trying to sustain the status quo.
The world turns. China and India are rising but unstable. Europe is being flushed down the toilet by the finance boyz. In Seattle, I see a modest recovery. But unlike Phoenix, this is a very outward-looking city with a diverse, dynamic private-sector economy with high-wage jobs, young talent and headquarters. Its recovery isn't dependent on housing. And even so, it's a "hold what you've got" recovery, here and in other improving American cities. The threat of a double-dip recession is very real. Political paralysis and ignorance ensure that America will not make any great leaps; reactionary politics could make things much worse yet again. In other words, in this "recovery" you are where you are. Does any of this penetrate the sun-addled brains of most Phoenicians?
No, too many will dream of 8 million people, Superstition Vistas, a vast collection of subdivisions in metropolitan Buckeye. They will not talk about water. They will unquestioningly read silly stories, about the "community" of DC Ranch "celebrating" 125 years, when the newish "exclusive" tract houses merely obliterated an entity of that name. The land could support relatively few cattle and was bought by Kemper Marley, of whom most now know nothing. Ultimately, the metropolitan area is way past its ability to support the cows driving its freeways listening to talk radio, sitting in their Arizona rooms watching Fox "News," living in "communities" that aren't, bearing the names of what they destroyed.
John McCain is now running TV ads touting his role on the Senate Armed Services Committee in keeping Luke (and Davis-Monthan) AFBs open. This illustrates another talking point on the right: earmarks are evidence of moral corruption but domestic military spending is good for us. It keeps us strong!
Another aspect of "good" government spending is health care (about 55% of this nation's health care expenditures is government-mediated). I stopped counting how many people I know - electricians, draftsmen, metal workers, et al - who are now studying nursing or some related medical field. There's a huge new hospital being built at Thomas Rd and the 51. Hospice of the Valley is building a substantial new headquarters at Osborn and 16th St.
Arizona's faux rugged individualists (many of whom enjoy SS and Medicare) seem obsessed about spending that benefits non-white people. Maybe that's unfair to some on the right, yet the attachment to explanations that essentially blame minorities for our fiscal problems is illuminating.
The "danged fence" construction, along with increased border patrol personnel and related "defense" spending is another boon for the state. Yet imagine if Arizona had a couple of senators who worked the system on our behalf when it came to federal stimulus money. Sky Harbor's People Mover wouldn't have to wait until 2020 for completion, and light rail might be zooming up 19th Avenue.
Posted by: soleri | May 24, 2010 at 01:46 PM
That last sentence was a sweet cherry on top! :)
Posted by: Rate Crimes | May 24, 2010 at 05:06 PM
The Moondog Mantra of "abandon hope all who enter here" needs to be replaced (my opinion) with a constructive focus on how we dig ourselves out of our mopic malaise. One suggestion: calling out those legislators with the most toxic emissions. It won't be easy. Example: 10 years ago, John Kavanagh was a NY Port Authority cop. Now, he's parlayed his Grover Norquist intellect into positions that synch with his friend Russell Pearce's media bandwagon . . and has become one of the most influential legislators in a few short years. (In the land of the visually challenged, a one-eyed man becomes king!)
Posted by: Jim Hamblin | May 24, 2010 at 05:21 PM
Jim,
I have written repeatedly and with great specificity, for years, about solutions and best practices. With few exceptions, these aren't happening. Nor is an alternative constructive response to the reality facing Phoenix and Arizona.
Instead, the Moondog Mantra by those in power continues to be, "Everything's fine...it's sunny...(shut up, Talton)..." Now I fear a tipping point has been reached and passed, where the Kooks are in unassailable control, the damage has been too great, and the larger forces at work in the world are too much. I long to be proven wrong.
Posted by: Rogue Columnist | May 24, 2010 at 05:38 PM
Jim, Rogue is right. Over the past 15 plus years, Rogue would present ideas in his columns here in AZ. The people in charge would act in ways 180 degrees opposite of his suggestions. In the end, he left, I'm sure frustrated and sad. Now that he is gone, all that he foretold has come to pass. Now that it is too late, his former critics, put forth his ideas as if they just came up with them themselves. The problem is that the ideas have a hollow ring coming from them since "the cows are out of the barn and it's will do no good to close the door now".
Posted by: AZREBEL | May 24, 2010 at 07:51 PM
Will there be a part IV? Will "Arizona depression" become a series?
Posted by: Rate Crimes | May 25, 2010 at 12:31 PM
If Arizona was a 'clean slate', how would you do it the second time around?
Posted by: Rate Crimes | May 25, 2010 at 12:33 PM
I'd love to build a coop on the corner of Chandler Blvd and Rural. Daytime hot water and electricity both generated from rooftop solar and made available to all residents. A mile walk gets you to most of what you need. The 72 bus takes you to ASU and Mill Ave. in a 1/2 hour. Now if you could just get a good gig at the Intel plant across the street, you are all hooked up.
Posted by: SJSU_UDub_Fan | May 25, 2010 at 04:32 PM
Until I've gone on to my great reward, I'll try my best to light the proverbial candle rather than settling for cursing the darkness. Just my nature. I respect Jon Talton and many of the bloggers here for their well-informed insights. But we'd do well to lay in a supply of those candles!
Posted by: Jim Hamblin | May 25, 2010 at 05:17 PM
I come to Rogue Columnist for the **light** it provides, in a state that has otherwise drunk the Kool-Aid.
Posted by: Marcia | May 25, 2010 at 08:36 PM