I've never been big on predictions, much less had the talent to match the trenchant dazzle of Jim Kunstler's annual revel (my favorite line: "Unlike the 1930s, we are no longer a nation who call each other 'Mister' and "Ma'am,' where even the down-and-out wear neckties and speak a discernible variant of regular English, where hoboes say 'thank you,' and where, in short, there is something like a common culture of shared values. We're a nation of thugs and louts with flames tattooed on our necks, who call each other 'motherfucker' and are skilled only on playing video games based on mass murder.")
No, history is too filled with contingency to make crystal balls reliable. The conventional wisdom of our experts is perhaps more corrupted and thus worthless than at any time since 1929 or 1914. Our collective inability to see things as they are, rather than as we wish them to be, makes any clear-eyed assessment immediately consigned to the perdition of "doomers" and "he's so negative." We have more "information sources" than ever before, and we are more ignorant. Even so, we can take a spin through the major themes that the new year and decade will bring.
For America: The continued bleeding of multiple wars will continue to be underreported and ignored by most of our fellow citizens, barring a major calamity. And yet it will be an uber-burden that will keep building new matrices of trouble for the nation. One example is how our military is essentially providing cover for China to spend billions extracting Afghanistan's resources for the good of the Chinese economy. The military is the jobs and stimulus program for the United States, but unlike investment in, say, infrastructure and research, it will not repay itself. It is, in Ross Perot's famous locution, the giant sucking sound. We can't pacify tribal "nations" driven by medieval theology (and I'm not talking about Gilbert, Ariz., here). Our efforts will not stop terrorism. Let me go really far out on a limb and say President Obama's "limited" Afghan surge will end up like LBJ circa 1966.
Back home, we will not get high-speed rail or even a better conventional Amtrak, both easily within our grasp, both of which would have the potential to create huge numbers of permanent good jobs. We will not get better healthcare. We will not rebuild American manufacturing, or reconstitute the American middle class, or return to the trajectory of a nation that could fight a misbegotten war, keep a totalitarian empire at bay, build the greatest economy in the history of the world with its fruits shared the widest, fulfill the promise of the Declaration in civil rights acts -- and send men to the moon. We will keep funneling billions of public dollars to the politically connected corporatocracy: the big bankers, insurers, multinationals, etc. We will not use this gift of transition time to prepare for a new world of peak oil and climate change. "Sustainability" will be a word that's so '00. Instead, we will argue over silly things or peer like pitiful voyeurs into the bedrooms of celebrities. Fewer Americans will read. Fewer men will go to college. Television will keep rotting our brains.
The chances of a double-dip recession are good. However, comparisons to the early 1980s are perilous. Back then, American still had the most powerful and diverse economy in the world, and much of the downturn was Paul Volcker's necessary war on inflation. Today, the U.S. economy is heavily dependent on moving around money and sprawl house building. The former adds risk and income inequality while leaving no lasting real productive economy -- indeed, it destroys it by continued mergers and other plays. The latter isn't coming back, whatever "green shoots" the clueless media keep finding each news cycle. Vast amounts of bad debt have still not been unwound. More bad debt is on the way. We're heavily in hock to China and other nations. Average Americans keep slipping further down the slope, but as individuals and families, each conditioned to ignore the real causes and either endure it quietly, or have our cries ignored, or look for the wrong people to blame or empower.
Which brings us to the 2010 elections. I think it will be a good year for the Republicans. Democrats had a chance to deliver immediate, discrete reforms after the 2008 elections that would improve the material condition and optimism of average Americans. They had a chance to take on the financial interests, from the big bankers to the rapacious insurers, that most Americans hate. They failed. So the chances of a continued Democratic hold on Congress are slim. The GOP is a party of insanity, but somehow it might be better able to channel the inchoate rage out there -- Americans have too short an attention span or knowledge of things to realize the Republicans are the party that wrecked America and are even more bought and paid for by the interests. With one or both houses of Congress in GOP hands -- and even gains by Republicans will be decisive, so skillfully have 40 GOP senators stifled the Democrats -- that the last two years of the Obama presidency will be tragic.
In Arizona: Nothing much will change on the surface. Peyton and Joe will continue their games and the Robespierres of the state Republican Party continue to lead ever greater numbers of their own to the guillotine. It will stay hotter longer but the weather will, again, be "odd," helping the climate-change "skeptics." Nothing will be done to meaningfully address water issues, except for the continued throwing down of gravel and cutting of shade trees in the center city, which is of course exactly the worst thing one could do. Terry Goddard might become governor -- Arizona should be so lucky -- but the state's situation can't change for the better until the Kookocracy is decisively defeated in the legislative elections.
Under the surface, the state's tribulations will only become worse. This will be downplayed by the media and ignored by the elite that profit from it and spend the increasingly unpleasant summer months elsewhere. Mexico's increasing path toward becoming a failed state will be more deeply felt across the border and in the largest city nearest that line. The state economy will stay in a depression, both because of dependence on housing and continued failure to engage in real economic development, but also because the state's fiscal calamity will only make things worse. All the crap about "government needs to tighten its belt because families are, too" will continue to be spouted, and continue to produce disastrous results. Arizona and Phoenix's American competitors will at least hold their commanding positions, and world rivals will sprint ahead. Arizona and Phoenix will tread sunshine, thinking they are not really part of this world competition. "Leaders" may bring out new reports to be forgotten. There will be much hyping of the next savor: Superstition Vistas! Williams Gateway! Buckeye! None of it real. Arizona is in decline.
Phoenix's rate of descent will become more clear next year. The crackup of Mayor Phil Gordon is a story that must wait to be told. He will, at best, be remembered as someone who carried through the major projects started by his predecessor, but failed to use his copious opportunities to move the city ahead. Meanwhile, people will line up, or not, to succeed him in 2011. The City Council seems much more fractured and less effective than in the early- and mid-2000s. So the barons of the huge council districts have their "power," none of which addresses the city's monumental trials. It was telling that David Cavazos was picked as city manager. Nice guy, well-meaning, inoffensive, and the least capable of the candidates for the job (all internal candidates in this pathologically inward-looking city). Make no waves. Move across the water quietly.
Developers will continue to hold sway, but not for any discernible public good: the vast tracts of empty, blighted land in the heart of the city will remain. The underclass will grow. Economic assets will continue to move to the beltways. The brain drain will also continue. If the misbegotten South Mountain Freeway is built, it will be heralded as a great civic achievement. The real leapfrog, a crash program to build out the downtown biomedical campus, will not be tackled. The real transportation leapfrog, commuter rail to the west, northwest and southeast valley, as well as trains to Tucson, will be, at best, "studied." Schools and the underclass will continue to be ignored. What could possibly go wrong?
Everywhere we must hunker down for a hard new year. We seem incapable of stepping forward and grasping a realistic and even inspiring future, incapable even of envisioning life any different from the way most Americans now lead it.
Every day is a gift. I wish you all a Happy New Year.
Nice review, Mr. Talton.
In a light vein, regarding the comments in the first paragraph, don't forget the ubiquitous skulls.
While I'm in curmudgeon mode, allow me to add that, unless your name is Elvira Mistress of the Dark or you're attending a Halloween costume party, black is not an appropriate shade for nail polish.
Also, I can recall a time when appearing in public in your underwear or pajamas was a common anxiety-nightmare. Now it's a fashion statement.
The irritating, omnipresent, sibilant scratching of bad music turned up to deafening levels on someone else's headphones was bad enough for public transit commuters. Now, despite the advances of a digital age for audiophiles everywhere, all too many of these fellow travelers have abandoned headphones (too discrete!) for the open speaker of their cellphone, intruding even more into the consciousness of those trying to concentrate or relax, with audio harking back to the cheapest, tinniest 60s era transistor radios ever produced by Hong Kong.
Presumably these are the same nincompoops who, when able to drive a car or truck, mount monster bass cannons in their trunks, played at volumes so high that they literally shake the vehicles with vibration. The sound produced is so distorted that it could not conceivably be a source of musical enjoyment -- much less inside the cab of the vehicle itself -- even by someone who appreciates the subtle pleasures of thumping accompanied by atonal and unintelligible vocals, but it has the undeniable virtue of drawing everyone's attention to you, like a fart at a dinner party.
Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | December 31, 2009 at 01:43 PM
Nice post, Emil. Happy New Year to you and also to you, Jon Talton. I still think you rock.
Terry Dudas
Posted by: terry dudas | December 31, 2009 at 01:54 PM
I occasionally discuss comparative American calamities with people who remember a recession or two decades earlier with vivid horror. They say this one is not as bad and we'll bounce back quickly. It's the optimism of those who recall unions and the remnants of America's manufacturing might as definite downers.
The jujitsu that the American Right has played on American consciousness has been a stunning success. Jimmy Carter's inflation was tamed by Ronald Reagan, who also tamed unions, the Evil Empire, and the federal government. The 1990s were dripping with appeasers and Quislings, ready to turn America into a politically correct, terrorist-coddling therapy program. Thank God, George W Bush changed all that. Now, a Muslim mole is threatening us again with socialism and political correctness aimed at stifling Christian witness. Le plus ca change....
Arizona's decline is evidence of something but it won't lead to reappraisals or systematic analysis. We are so painted into our corner that real estate and tourism exist as our only viable options. But it's fascinating how Arizona is not that different from other states. If there's some chastened cheerleader on CNBC or writing for Forbes, they've yet to surface. What we keep seeing is that old time religion, tax cuts and government spending freezes, that will solve everything. You gotta believe! That's why we still love Reagan. It's why Sarah Palin is the latest human cartoon promising manna from heaven for True Believers.
And who are we, liberal ironists, to mock these real Americans? We have so little faith in authentic American dreamers that no one wants to listen to us. All these hoaxes like "global warming" only prove to real Americans how liberals hate success and self-reliance. We want the government to take care of everybody! And provide health care even though it's not in the Constitution!
Predictions: 2010 will seem even worse than 2009. The recovery will sputter but the "haves" will start spending more. The jobless rate will exceed 11%. States will lobby Washington hard for another stimulus bill. Obama's approval rating will continue to slide. And Republicans will capture 40 House seats and five Senate seats. The Middle East will continue to roil and oil will pass $100/bbl.
.....le plus ca meme.
Posted by: soleri | December 31, 2009 at 02:23 PM
The scary thing is,if you are only half-right,we are so screwed.
Posted by: mike doughty | December 31, 2009 at 05:19 PM
Jon, when we no longer hope, we might as well pull the sod over us. When I read the long recitation of our miseries, I also wonder what might have happened if the Bush debacle had been followed by a McCain reign. At least such a reflection would give us some perspective . . and just maybe a smidgen of hope!
Posted by: Jim Hamblin | December 31, 2009 at 05:37 PM
Incidentally, quite a number of Mr. Talton's assessments for Arizona were supported in a recent Arizona Republic article by the talented business writer Betty Beard.
Despite the upbeat headlined assigned by editors "Arizona's road to recovery mapped out", it becomes clear from the article both that: (a) the road is basically the same one as before the recession; (b) it's going to be slow going along that road for a very long time.
"What Arizona needs most to come roaring back is more residents. Newcomers would generate more businesses to absorb all the empty buildings and spark the construction industry."
(The article goes on to mention the flatness of recent demographic trends, noting that "Without more people, commercial construction is unnecessary", then goes on to cite "Scottsdale economist" Elliott Pollack who "said he doubts another major office building will be built here for five to seven years".
"And right now, Arizona is dead last in the country for job creation.
"Retirees, who have flocked to Arizona deserts for decades, are reluctant to move now because their homes and investment portfolios have lost value and many are continuing to work.
"Over time, metro Phoenix's growth machine could face other challenges. Water supplies are already tight in the state. And if gas prices soared again as they did in mid-2008, the practice of continuing to build single-family homes farther out from the urban cores could change."
Also:
"A large reason the state's economy is hurting and budgets are out of balance is that consumers, whose spending makes up two-thirds of the economy, have less to spend and remain hesitant to shop.
"...Pollack said consumers gained wealth in the 1990s from the stock market and in the mid-2000s from housing values. Now, they have no such source other than what they earn. As they pay down debt and save more, those actions will continue to crimp retail sales."
That's one bumpy, dusty road.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/01/01/20100101biz-recession0101.html
Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | January 02, 2010 at 03:20 PM
"Phoenix will tread sunshine"
Great phrase!
Posted by: Rate Crimes | January 02, 2010 at 11:23 PM
That's a very harsh but very real and truthful look into 2010.
The most positive thing you can think of going into this January is that 2010 is a new decade and we can only hope that we started it bad and will come out of it good.
Posted by: Chuck Reynolds | January 03, 2010 at 07:00 PM
Mr. Talton and Mr. Hamblin, I borrow from each of your perspectives on this year in review, in noting that I am horrified at recent public discourse both nationally and in Arizona; yet I remain hopeful, based on the incremental changes that 2009 has brought us. The nature of the dialog is at least changing, which I find quite refreshing. Whether it lasts through the next potential bubble remains to be seen, but all we can really do is keep trying to make things better, ask tougher questions than most seem comfortable answering, and continue to argue our views. I remain hopeful that Ravi Bhatra's view of class struggle will ring true in 2010-2011, at which point the intellectual and working classes will align to recapture our power center. And on the subject of economists, thanks to Emil for placing quotes around Pollack's title as "Scottsdale economist." The guy is a glorified residential development consultant at best.
Posted by: Ptbrennan | January 03, 2010 at 08:35 PM
BTW, did anyone see this article from the AZ Republic today/yesterday: http://bit.ly/5JKg4w. Not bad, but I fear that the sound analysis/advice will be promptly forgotten by many of our leaders....
Posted by: Ptbrennan | January 04, 2010 at 12:50 AM
IMHO our greatest hope lies in the Republicans getting their way and all the dire predictions of Mr. Taltom and Mr. Pulsifer and Mr. Kunstler coming true. We must hope also that Democrats continue to be ineffective in planning, communicating and using their current majorities.
Until the situations(s) become undeniably bad (to a majority of Americans), we will not have enough people motivated to undertake the kinds of change we need. Until Global Warming is 'known' to be true (regardless of causes) we will not take the painful actions that it requires. Until peak oil 'happens' we will not change our addiction. Until the guy I spoke to at the bar understands that America is no longer the 'greatest country on earth in every possible way', we will not remake our government back into a democracy-in-fact
Despite what has happened so far, the Republican messages and plans can still be believed. There is still room to doubt the dire predictions of Rogue and others. There is still hope that this is another recession that will pass. One can still hope that the 80's-90's version of the American Dream is viable and can recover.
As I've said before,Americans are not quick to change. We always wait (almost) too long to act. If we can pull off a last-minute act-as-one one more time, we may still make the needed sea-changes.
What we are (or at least I am) waiting for is the next Pearl Harbor, the next Hiroshima, the next Sputnik, the next Martin Luther King.
We did get 9/11, but the "leaders" we had then chose to spin it as justification for the status quo- "Freedom", while simultaneously legislating many freedoms out of existence.
No, we need something big to get our attention, combined with enlightened leadership. Maybe, if Obama had been in office during 9/11, he could have done it then. (yes, he was too inexperienced then...) If we get the next BIG THING during 2010, he might be the one to lead us in the right direction.
The BIG THING obviously hasn't happened yet, or maybe our generation doesn't have the same chops as those of 1929, or 1941, or 1959.
Clearly there are some people around with a grasp of the present and a vision of the future- present company specifically included- but the public at large doesn't see it yet.
I'm very sad that that the country seems to need such a sitmulus in order to act, but it remains my greatest hope, my last hope.
Posted by: Buford | January 05, 2010 at 03:15 PM
Buford, that's a dangerous viewpoint. When things fall apart, and the center cannot hold the question should be asked, "And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"
I don't think anyone should assume that under current political circumstances, the result of anarchy loosed on the world will be a progressive solution. Who will lead that? Where is the political party and grassroots political infrastructure to support that?
More likely that a strong-man would make use of the ready-made morons conditioned by years of listening to Glenn Beck and such like. Be careful what you wish for...
Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | January 08, 2010 at 01:52 PM