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April 13, 2009

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Another parallel with the pirate attacks is that piracy has been escalating off the Somali coast for the last two years. The International Chamber of Commerce maintains a website that tracks piracy and they show an attack for every day in March, 2009. They also recommend round-the-clock watches anywhere within 1000 nautical miles of Somalia. Those that do keep watch have little trouble evadnig the pirates. Only those that do not watch are boarded. (that is no reflection on the brave work of the crew AFTER they were boarded)

So, much like our economy, there are those who have seen it coming and tried to warn others.

And, much like the media coverage, until it happens to an American ship and an American crew - its not news.

If you're outside the walled fortress called Conventional Wisdom (say, this blog, Krugman, various doomers and cranks, and those hands-on regulators like William Black and Simon Johnson), you'll catch the surreality of the false war. It pits the right-wing scream machine, perennially angry and excitable, vs the "socialists" (say, Democrats). That the real war is actually being waged against the screamers and most non-filthy rich Americans is the coup itself. We don't know because we've been subverted into thinking stimulus spending is some huge evil (money that might end up in black hands, no less). So, instead of following the quickly moving hands that secrete the nut in a different shell, we pretend we're hip to a phantom transgression.

Does it elucidate this drama that the right-wing billionaire funders of "tea parties" and the putative left-wing apologists for Wall Street have similar interests? That is, keeping the financial industry above water while the rest of us drown? The scandal is that America has no rhetorical skill set that can confront corporate malfeasance and greed. We gave it up for the loony-tunes outrage of right-wing puppetmasters.

If you're frustrated and angry, these charlatans are very convincing. They keep you agitated about the jaywalkers and litter bugs while the sharpies are robbing the bank.

Somehow, we have to hope Obama succeeds at a game that is ultimately going to preserve concentrated wealth at our expense. It's either an irony if you're somewhat aware or a bitter pill if you're genuinely liberal. We don't have options here because we let the debate shift so far to the right that a Larry Summers somehow got on our team. Obama is the hope of a culture that has no real political power because it traded cold-eyed realism for a Prague Spring called "change".

I know that the pirate drama is being used as a metaphor here, but before I comment on the metaphorical content, I'd like to remark on the events which inspired it, because I think there is a common thread.

Frankly, it all seems a bit staged. The pirates are, first of all, not terrorists, but out of work Somali fishermen, originally organized into militias to stop toxic dumping and illegal fishing off their coasts by ships from more advanced countries -- apparently what ruined their livelihood in the first place -- who then turned to piracy as a source of easy money.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-vazquez/on-pirates_b_186015.html

The four pirates involved in the current drama, were reported by the Associated Press to be out of ammunition and, being stuck on a drifting vessel, under the hot sun, in shark infested waters, and surrounded by potently armed naval destroyers, were ready to release the captain of the seized vessel in exchange for, not ransom, but the mere promise of their unaccosted escape. One of the pirates (the one "captured") was in fact in discussions with the navy at the time of the "rescue" operation.

http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/1138895.html

So, how does one evaluate the claim of "clear and present danger" when the navy, being a party to these negotiations at the very time of the "rescue", knew what the pirates' position and intent was?

Supposedly, the navy snipers fired when one of the pirates pointed an automatic weapon at the back of the captain, as though with the intent to shoot him.

So, an automatic weapon, with finger on trigger, was pointed at a hostage, and we are to believe that at this time the trained navy rescue snipers chose to shoot. One might expect this to be contrary to training, since a finger on the trigger of an automatic weapon pointed at a hostage might easily go off, spraying said hostage with bullets, strictly as a reflex in response to being shot. Yet, not only did the navy supposedly choose this moment to fire, but the hostage went unharmed.

Then, there is the remarkable fact that, whereas the choice by a navy sniper to fire, based on the pointing of a rifle at the hostage, must ipso facto have been spontaneous, all of the pirates (excluding the fourth, who was in negotiations with the navy for the safe release of the hostage) were killed simultaneously: something that, surely, argues coordination and planning.

In short, all of the unfriendly witnesses to the events were killed.

I can't help but wonder whether, with the clock ticking away, and the peaceful release of the hostage (and escape of his captors) looking more and more like an unwelcome anti-climax, a decision was made to use the first excuse that came along to end the standoff dramatically and decisively.

The Somalis, predictably, have issued threatening statements in response to this. The media may attempt to built this up into a terrorist threat, just as they did with the pirates (though unsuccessfully, since they are, unquestionably, sad sacks indeed).

I'll try to post something about the banking equivalent to piracy (the real subject of this blog item) later.

(By the way, I always enjoyed Ben Stein's deadpan comic delivery, and took particular pleasure in his performance as host of the comparatively highbrow trivia gameshow Win Ben Stein's Money, despite the fact that he is a political conservative who used to work for the Nixon administration. I had no idea that he wrote a column for the New York Times, but I'm delighted to learn of it.)

Regarding "the next get rich quick scheme", according to a recent New York Times article, the arbitragers, having received the equivalent of papal forgiveness for their schemes in the form of a revision to the accounting rules which makes their toxic assets less toxic on the books, and seeing some life in the stock markets, have already been hard at work investing your money (or if not yours, someone else's) in -- wait for it laddies -- the junk bond market.

"Even as credit rating agencies predict high rates of default for 2009 and junk-rated companies like General Growth Properties, the shopping mall owner, struggle to avoid bankruptcy, investors are pushing more money into high-yield debt. Junk bonds just ended their BEST QUARTER IN FIVE YEARS, and a report by AMG Data Services said that $923 million flowed into junk-bond mutual funds last WEEK, the most since 2005. . .Yields on junk bonds are about 16.5 percentage points more than Treasuries, a fat premium for risk by historical standards." (NYT, Business section, 4/7/09)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/07/business/economy/07credit.html?ref=business

Well, you know what they say: buy low, sell high. You can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs, and you can't buy low unless the market drove down prices in a panic. Arrrr, matey...

A few more skeptical observations regarding piracy on the high seas:

(1) The pirates were armed with automatic weapons, and there were four of them.

It is reported that the pirates came on board "shooting into the air" and that the captain ordered the crew to lock themselves into their cabins, then offered to exchange himself for their safety. Supposedly this is how he ended up in their hands in a small boat.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation/AP/story/996737.html

Yet, it is also reported that the 20 member unarmed crew "managed to overpower" the four pirates and to "regain control" of the ship. One of the pirates was reportedly stabbed in the hand during this outbreak -- yet not one crew member was shot.

(2) How did these pirates manage to get aboard? This was the second attempt in 30 minutes. The captain and crew should have been prepared, and at the very least have left the area at top speed after the first attempt. Yet, these "pirates" managed to approach a second time, in two "skiffs", and board using grappling hooks, without being repelled or outrun.

(3) The ship's owner is a Virginia based U.S. subsidiary of the Danish line, and is a "longtime Pentagon contractor" with "top security clearance".

Supposedly, these Defense Department connections involved training the captain and crew in "prevention methods to combat piracy".

Yet, they allowed four pirates to climb aboard after two tries, approaching in skiffs each time. Furthermore, they apparently felt comfortable attacking the pirates unarmed, despite having heard automatic rifle fire and having been given a direct order by their captain early on to lock themselves into their cabins.

It is also unclear how the crew, locked into their separate cabins, managed to coordinate a successful tactical operation against four pirates armed with automatic weapons.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-somali-pirates9-2009apr09,0,4104857.story

(4) It is now reported that three snipers fired simultaneously at all three pirates. Yet, supposedly the decision to fire was a spontaneous reaction to a "clear and present danger" involving a sudden, direct threat to the life of the captain which came from one of the pirates pointing a gun at his back.

Are we being asked to believe that, during the entire time that the captain was being held hostage, this is the only time that his captors pointed a weapon at him?

It is also reported that at one point the captain jumped overboard off the small boat and tried to swim away, only to be recaptured (without injury) by the pirates (who were also in direct negotiations with the navy to release the captain without a ransom, in exchange for their own free passage.

Maybe they were just unemployed fishermen, not hardened criminals, who were looking for easy money and were taken aback by unexpected resistence, but the whole story is fishy.

(5) Note that if the captain was already in the hands of the pirates at the time of the crew's outbreak, they not only undertook to risk themselves in an unarmed fight against four desperados wielding automatic weapons, but in doing so directly risked the life of the captain, who was a hostage of armed pirates.

If the captain was not already a hostage of the pirates at the time of the crew's outbreak (when they supposedly "overpowered" the four pirates and "regained control" of the ship), then how did he subsequently come to fall into their hands? After all, what need would there be to exchange himself for his crew's safety after they had overpowered the pirates and regained control of the ship, all without a single casualty among the crew?

Perhaps the captain felt that the pirates, brooding over their unseemly ejection, might work themselves into a blood frenzy if he did not give himself up as a hostage...

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