Rogue Columnist

Phoenix, Dubai and other heat dreams

On the ground in Phoenix, and sometimes green sprouts arise even amid the ugliness of the cityscape and thuggingness of the politics. A woman on a walker watched me struggle into CVS; on the way out, she said, "I've been praying for you." It keeps me aloft. Tuesday night saw an overflow crowd at the Poisoned Pen Bookstore for the launch of my new mystery/suspense novel, The Pain Nurse. Today I was on KJZZ with Steve Goldstein, where my friend Grady Gammage and I reprised our good cop/bad cop routine with Phoenix in the interrogation room (guess who plays bad cop).

I got to read the Arizona Republic on blessed, relaxing paper this morning, a welcome break from the Information Center. Today's Phoenix Laff Riot is Mayor Phil Gordon concluding some kind of economic partnership with Dubai. It's hard to know where to begin with what's wrong with this deeply unserious distraction. For one thing, rhetoric about solar power, sustainability, etc. is a joke considering Phoenix is a basket case in all categories. It let solar research and enterprise get away after the 1950s and now has nothing to offer the Mideast kingdom, other than a model of worst practices. Meanwhile, Dubai is in a deep recession, partly caused by overbuilding. So the benefit is, what...?

The end is always near

Word comes this morning of a 6.0 earthquake centered about 130 miles from Mexico City, a place already frightened by the swine flu outbreak. "We Mexicans are not used to living with so much fear, but all that is happening -- the economic crisis, the illnesses and now this -- it feels like the apocalypse," a 22-year-old told the Associated Press. Take comfort, Yanks. Apparently the teaching of history is as neglected in Mexico as here. In 1519, apocalypse of the mighty and advanced Aztec Empire came at the hands of Hernan Cortes, 600 conquistadores and Indian allies who had chafed under the Aztec lash. Cortes leveled Tenochtitlan, built Mexico City.

Something American schoolchildren aren't taught: 90 percent of the indigenous population of the New World perished in the decades after first contact with the Europeans, mostly because the Europeans unwittingly carried diseases against which the Indians had no immunity. Entire tribes were wiped out. Civilizations do end, sometimes with great speed.

We have the jitters. This morning, the backup plane for Air Force One flew low over Manhattan accompanied by fighter jets. It was a photo-op, but nervous people evacuated several buildings. The flu -- it's hard to know. Much of instant, electronic, everywhere media have one speed: hysteria. Still, at least 20 million people were killed by the 1918 flu, perhaps many more -- and that particular strain is still not completely understood. It came as another world was ending, as empires were collapsing at the end of World War I's then unprecedented carnage and the particular optimism of the early 20th century vanished forever.

'I must go home...

periodically to renew my sense of horror," as Carson McCullers said. Also to see old friends, commune with the less-spoiled parts of Phoenix, gather material for my next Mapstone novel -- and launch my newest mystery, The Pain Nurse. Signing and talk at 7 p.m. Tuesday at the Poisoned Pen Bookstore in Scottsdale, and 2 p.m. Saturday at Clues Unlimited in Tucson.

How'd that boom work out for you?

The data are in and most Phoenicians have to show for the Great Real Estate Boom...not much. The federal Bureau of Economic Analysis this week released its comprehensive survey of per-capita personal income for metro areas and counties in 2007. It's the gold standard yardstick for measuring how the average person was actually doing after the Bush "boom" and as the nation prepared to slide into recession.

In metro Phoenix, per-capita personal income totaled $35,185, an increase of 1 percent from 2006 vs. the national average of 4.9 percent. From 1997 to 2007, income growth was 3.9 percent, vs. 4.3 percent nationally. More context: Phoenix's 2007 income was only 91 percent of the national average. Although Phoenix is the nation's 13th most populous metro area, it ranks 134th among metros in per-capita personal income. In 1997, it ranked 126th. This should be astonishing, if any one takes note.

Let's drill down deeper. Phoenix doesn't compete for talent and capital against the national average that includes Mississippi and Alabama. It competes against other big cities (here and abroad), whether it wants to or not. How did its competitors do?

Dangerous party animals

Dear God, I wish America had a real two-party system. As it is, the Republicans have been reduced to a regional gaggle of angry white guys. They're opposed to everything but tax cuts and -- now that their profligate former president is gone -- government spending. One of their most prominent governors hinted that Texas ought to secede. I wish we could let them go, confiscating North Dakota's nukes on the way out. And given the Great Disruption that is only beginning, national breakup is not out of the question. But the reality is that what's left of the Republican Party are welfare queen states such as Arizona and Mississippi that need the federal Treasury even as they curse it.

The damage from the Republican crackup goes beyond the latest laff riot on Fox "News" or even the bottleneck in the Senate. I think about Seattle, where Democrats have been in charge for years, often with bumbling results. It would be nice to have a real opposition party that would provide meaningful competition. One-party polities are never healthy. But the Republicans can't be trusted because in power, even those who claim independent thought almost invariably become janizaries of the extreme right and its bankrupt policies.

Think about Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Big Finance). Wouldn't it be nice to have a Prescott Bush-style Republican to take him on (Bush defeated Dodd's father for the senate seat Connecticut in the 1950s)? Such a Republican wouldn't be focused on defunding Amtrak, denying global warming and voting in lockstep with the extreme right. We would have an alternative -- perhaps as much a creature of big money, perhaps not. But competition that would keep everyone more honest.

In the kill zone

We don't know the details yet. But I imagine Doug Georgianni as another struggling, underpaid guy trying to find that illusive Arizona dream. Now he's dead, a young 51. Three months ago he took a job servicing the speed cameras on Phoenix freeways. Sunday night, while parked on the Loop 101 near 7th Ave. in a marked Department of Public Safety photo enforcement van, Georgianni was shot multiple times. The suspect, since arrested, is a white male (of course) driving a Chevy Suburban (of course).

I never completely understood the loud controversy over speed and red-light cameras. Metro Phoenix has a horrendous problem of major traffic violators, fatal and often spectacular wrecks and pedestrian killings, many hit-and-runs. Meanwhile, the religion of tax cuts and Arizona's unwillingness to fund its public sector to keep up with population growth mean there aren't enough traffic officers. The problem is made worse, of course, by sprawl, huge freeways and eight-lane "city streets," plus a population driving giant vehicles they can't really control on streets with increasing numbers of pedestrians. Even the former Catholic bishop came to grief this way, and in his character-revealing response of driving away from the victim like so many other 'Zonies had done.

Yet to the Kookocracy the speed cameras were the worst kind of "big brother." It's funny, they didn't have a problem with their party's implementation of torture and rendition as American policy, or with the tactics of "America's toughest sheriff." I wonder if any of them -- from the pols to the talk-radio "hosts" -- now regret the years they have spent fighting the cameras with the usual intemperate language?

Obama gets aboard high-speed rail

President Obama has pledged $13 billion to begin high-speed rail in America. I don't want to be a cynic and ask, does anyone believe we'll see this in our lifetimes (or at all, as American continues its whacko-driven, debt-laden decline)? I'll say the action is a good start. And the sensibility -- actually acknowledging the importance of rail to the 21st century -- is first rate.

It's important to note a few essentials to understanding the situation. 1) Rail is essential to a sustainable future, using less fuel and having a smaller negative environmental impact that airlines or freeways. 2) It's essential to improving productivity and competitiveness, as workers and semis are stuck in gridlock, and face steadily rising fuel costs anyway. 3) Modern rail systems are thriving around the world, and China sees this as essential to its leapfrog to world supremacy -- note to Americans who don't get out much: We're the country that's behind, far behind. 4) The nation's only passenger rail system, Amtrak, has been starved of funding for years, so it has much catching up to do, just on refitting equipment, etc.

With Obama's plan, the devil will be in the details, of course. Yet we're still not thinking holistically about the issue -- and we'd better get our act together toot sweet.

The conscience of the Kookocracy?

They wish they knew how to quit me. Even though it's been two years since I wrote a column for the Arizona Republic, I keep popping up on various Web sites as the devil that's missed by the Kookocracy. After all, who can they now denounce as a SOCIALIST!! -- Clay Thompson? The pretty-in-pink Moms Like Me page? Anyway, this was brought home again in a story last week about a conference on the flatlined-in-a-body-bag Arizona economy.

One commenter generously wrote: "Jon Talton preached this for nearly a decade, yet no one believed him. In fact, the GOP-led Legislature and the Real Estate Industrial Complex put a lot of pressure on The Arizona Republic to silence him, and in the end, Talton was run out of town. Perhaps if those idiots had actually paid attention to what Talton had to say, then the state wouldn't be in this mess. And legislators wouldn't have to solicit advice from ordinary Arizonans, as they did just last week. Fools." This was followed by -- I am not making this up: "You mean John Talton the corporate socialist shill?" Etc. Spelling has never been their thing.

Back to this big summit, convened by the Greater Phoenix Economic Council. Chairman Michael Bidwill "said that...the state relies too much on retail and contracting revenues." Yes, he of the Arizona Cardinals whose taxpayer-funded stadium in the cotton field was meant to be a magnet for contracting and retail. Glendale Mayor Elaine Scruggs said, "It's overwhelming. It's really overwhelming when you look at all the areas where we are deficient." Duh, ace, as we said in fifth grade. You get the picture. Deeply unserious -- another summit to nowhere. But rather than go back to discuss the real problems and solutions, which you can find here, I want to encourage the Kookocracy to use Teabag Day to redouble their efforts.

The bigger hostage drama

The rescue of the American captain from pirates -- handled with cool competence from President Obama to the SEAL snipers -- gives the nation a much-needed boost. This comes after eight years of "bring 'em on" grandstanding by the Bush administration. And now, as the company that once stood for American success and the rising middle class, General Motors, faces bankruptcy. At least we can still do something right.

This should not distract us from piracy that has been happening on Wall Street, and that the Obama administration seems committed to, at best, merely applying a nip-and-tuck. It emerges that Obama chief economic adviser Larry Summers not only received $5.2 million from a hedge fund and $2.7 million in speaking fees from big financial institutions after he left Harvard. He also was working for a hedge fund while he was president of Harvard. Frank Rich asks, "Can he be a fair broker of the bailout when he so recently received lavish compensation from some of its present and, no doubt, future players?" Ben Stein answers, "I know people and I know money, at least the basics. If anyone thinks that a man who has had a taste of honey from Wall Street on that scale will ever really crack the whip on Wall Street, he’s dreaming."

Larry Summers, the man leading Obama's reckless push into socialism; sorry, SOCIALISM!! (or is it fascism? -- the right-wingers can't figure it out). What's really happening is that the pirates are winning, and there's no SEAL team out of D.C. to protect taxpayers -- or the future of this republic.

ASU, part deux

ASU President Michael Crow has issued an apology for what he calls the "confusion" about the university's apparent decision to not award an honorary degree to President Obama when he delivers the commencement address. Crow also said ASU "is naming and expanding its most important scholarship program" in Obama's honor. The statement reads in part:

“I apologize for the confusion surrounding our invitation to President Obama to address ASU students at commencement,” said ASU President Michael M. Crow. “The entire ASU community has been electrified with excitement since we learned of his participation in our commencement ceremony. We hope that the recent discussion of honorary degrees will not detract from the honor and thrill that ASU – and indeed all of Arizona – is experiencing in anticipation of his visit. I am honored, as are our faculty, staff and students, that President Obama will give his first commencement speech as president of the United States at ASU.” 

You can read the Huffington Post take here, (with some background here) as well as comments. HuffPo and Politico ignited an international firestorm of criticism of ASU when they reported this story earlier this week. The original Rogue post raised indigation among readers -- but also hackles in Sparkyville.

No class: ASU's Obama slight

President Obama will give Arizona State University the rare if not unprecedented honor of having a sitting president speak at its commencement. ASU, however, refuses to give Obama the typical recognition accorded such high-powered visitors: an honorary degree. I have searched the "Information Center" in vain for this rather huge story, but it obviously remains a supplicant to the propaganda organs of Tempe Normal. The world knows, however, from stories on Huffington Post and Politico. It's been on national television.

ASU, widely known as "the Desert Ivy," deemed Obama's accomplishments insufficient to merit an honorary degree. That mediocre diploma mill -- you've probably never even heard of it -- the University of Notre Dame is granting Obama a degree. In reality, perhaps Obama did not attend enough keggers or spend enough time oogling the coeds sunbathing outside the dorms or walking saucily by Hayden Library to qualify.

The more than 3,300 comments from around the world on HuffPo are devastating. Among them: "Arizona State??? Well, that's one way to get your name in the news and raise your admission levels. NOT!!!." "This is the proof African Americans needed to know for certain that racism is also rooted in the academia of the country's highest educational institutions." "As ASU alumni I am thoroughly disgusted!...If Lattie Coor were still president - this more than likely never have happened." "This is an incredible act on the part of ASU. I would love the see the body of work that the six member honorary committee has produced in their lives so far. Something tells me it would pale in comparison to what President Obama has done so far in his life. Shame on you ASU. Why did you invite him if you were going to insult him?" "What an insult to an extremely accomplished US President. Obama has done more in 2+ months than his predecessor did in 8 years! This does not surprise me, however. Wasn't AZ one of the last states to recognize the MLK holiday?"

As to the committee that decided against granting the degree...sure. The faculty at ASU are less powerful than the teachers' lounge at Kenilworth School. Michael Crow runs the joint with an iron hand, and there's some hidden agenda. Perhaps trying to appease the screams of the Kookocracy or wealthy Republican John Sidney McCain III that Obama would have been invited in the first place. I wonder if ASU realizes how much damage it has done to itself, and to the state, by this small and pathetic act. As JFK once remarked about Richard Nixon: "No class."

Dead-on-arrival solutions

Nassim Taleb, who wrote The Black Swan, proved to be one of the most prescient observers of our current unpleasantness. On Global Guerrillas, he offers ten rules for a more resilient financial system. Very worth reading. Among them:

What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest.

And

No socialization of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal.

Also, be sure to check out Kevin Phillips on Talking Points Memo, explaining the vast expansion of financial services as part of the overall economy, and how it poses a bigger risk than the Great Depression. Why is Obama sleep-walking into trouble with Geithner and Summers?

Making a killing

(With update below)

The killers are among us. In exurban Washington state, a man with a stormy marriage reacts to his wife leaving him by killing his five children -- with multiple gunshots -- and then killing himself. This came the same day as a nutjob in Pittsburgh escalated a fight with his mother over a dog peeing in the house into the murder of three police officers. Days before, a man burst into a center that helps immigrants in Binghampton, N.Y. and shot 13 to death before committing suicide. Last month it was eight shot to death in North Carolina, another 10 shot to death in Alabama, and four Oakland officers murdered after a routine traffic stop.

In many cases, the gunmen had recently lost jobs. There were histories of instability and alienation among the suspects (the Oakland case was simply a murderous ex-con). And what our age now calls "anger management problems." All this happened during the Great Depression, too. America had plenty of guns then, and not a few demagogues whipping up the gullible. But in my relatively extensive study of the era I can't find one example of these kinds of mass shootings of innocent people. (I know my literate readers will disabuse me of my ignorance here; but the shootings certainly were not widespread). When America faced mass slaughter, it was events such as the now all-but-forgotten natural gas explosion at a rural Texas school in 1937. It killed nearly 300 students. The outpouring of support and volunteers was immense. (Even Adolf Hitler is said to have sent a telegram of condolence).

But we were a different nation then.

Problem solved

Using the Phoenix Solution to fix the economic crisis.

This is not hard

We're being played for fools again. The Financial Accounting Standards Board just relaxed its "mark to market" rule. Instead of forcing banks to value assets what they would really bring on the open market, the bankers get to set the value -- i.e., at bubble levels. At the least, this will bollix up the Geithner bailout plan, giving banks no incentive to part with "toxic" assets that are suddenly Chanel again. At the worst, it will create another bubble. It's already produced a sucker's rally on Wall Street.

As for that bank plan, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has produced something that sticks the taxpayers with most of the risk and does nothing to deal with the underlying problem. In many cases, these "assets" aren't. At any price. The bankers made bad decisions and we're still bailing them out. Not mad enough? Now that you own Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, you'll be glad to know that you'll be helping to pay $159 million in retention bonuses. And we want to retain these idiots...why? Let them take their "talent" into a job market with millions looking for work. Could an AIG or Fannie executive even count change correctly at McDonald's? ("Sorry, sir, that quarter I missed is now a derivative.")

Yet even the reformers can't get their acts together. "Populist rage" dissipated quickly -- that especially happens when people are faced with problems that seem impossibly complex. These are complex problems, but some solutions with proven records could be implemented quickly.

ASU's dreams dashed

When I saw this morning's headline in the Arizona Republic, "ASU's Dreams Dashed," I didn't realize it was just a sports story. Arizona State University was the prime example of a recent New York Times story headlined, "State Colleges Also Face Cutbacks in Ambitions." Reporting on the hundreds of layoffs and scores of closed programs, among other draconian austerity measures, the Times wrote:

...this year, Mr. Crow’s plans have crashed into new budget realities, raising questions about how many public research universities the nation needs and whether universities like Arizona State, in their drive to become prominent research institutions, have lost focus on their public mission to provide solid undergraduate education for state residents.

"Mr. Crow," of course, is Michael Crow, who arrived as ASU's president in 2002 promising "the new American university." When he was riding high, I talked to an eminent Arizonan, a huge supporter of higher ed, who had just spent some time with Crow. "He's brilliant...visionary," this person said. "And he's a con man." On my visit to Phoenix last month, a major civic leader said flatly: "I think Crow's house of cards will collapse soon."