« The permanent crisis | Main | Exceptionalism »

September 13, 2013


Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Syria, http://www.theglobalist.com/sikorski-plan/

LDS/ASU: God U just cant get away from these folks!

Wonk Blog"How to argue about research you dont like" (see above)

In an attempt to be smarter like so many others here, I tried to understand the Wonkblog, but it was too much: I prefer just making unsubstantiated bizarre statements. Maybe I could compete with the blog savants if I had been born Des Moines instead of in an Iowa farm barn and went to country school and maybe if I had traveled extensively and studied in England? But what the heck I am just an trailer isolated dude drinking Urban Bean coffee.

PS Petro U will have to explain that Archibald dude to me, I'll buy the coffee.

cal Lash and his phantom dog Spot from their motorhome somewhere in the Sonoran desert, whats left of it.

Wonder how many Sahuaros you could have planted in that space ASU gave to the Tooth Fairy folks.

That it rained and they had to take their GOLD shovels inside to pretend breaking earth is surely a sign from above. Will ASU be stocking the surveillence state in competition with BYU or will it be one big happy family?

Jonathan Franzen: what's wrong with the modern world -

We can't face the real problems; we spent a trillion dollars not really solving a problem in Iraq that wasn't really a problem; we can't even agree on how to keep healthcare costs from devouring the GNP. What we can all agree to do instead is to deliver ourselves to the cool new media and technologies, to Steve Jobs and Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos, and to let them profit at our expense. Our situation looks quite a bit like Vienna's in 1910, except that newspaper technology has been replaced by digital technology and Viennese charm by American coolness.
Nowadays, the refrain is that "there's no stopping our powerful new technologies". [...] we find ourselves spending most of our waking hours texting and emailing and Tweeting and posting on colour-screen gadgets because Moore's law said we could. We're told that, to remain competitive economically, we need to forget about the humanities and teach our children "passion" for digital technology and prepare them to spend their entire lives incessantly re-educating themselves to keep up with it.
In my own little corner of the world, which is to say American fiction, Jeff Bezos of Amazon may not be the antichrist, but he surely looks like one of the four horsemen.

In wingnut world, Obama is simultaneously doing too much and too little about Syria.

Cheer up people: I can't wait to make war on Christmas again! It's just around the corner. With the right attitude, it's always coming up roses.

Long, long after all the silliness of our times is forgotten, what will be remembered is that this is the time the first man-made object left the solar system. Happy trails little guy.


Since the 70 odd years of chaos in the middle east was caused by the random borders drawn by colonial invaders, how about we all get out of the area and say, "alright guys, you draw them where you want them, then get back to us". We'll deal with whoever is left standing.

Yeah, but now the solar system is out of balance. Physical matter that has existed in this solar system since the Master of the Universe created it, has gone forever -- leaving a tiny black butterfly hole in the fabric of time.

Who knows where the time goes? Stephen Hawking, maybe -- and he ain't talking.

Actally I think Hawking said we only have a 1000 years left on this planet.

Experts warn of water rationing in Arizona:


And here's a quiz for your AZ "libertarian" friends:


It wasn't a quiz. It was an ESSAY test.

Independent contrarians don't do essay tests.

Besides, I scrolled down to the bottom and got distracted by the article about Jenny McCarthy.

The Good News: AzRebel, Next year I believe you and I and Petro should go to Burning Man. What a great show it was again and it is spreading its cultural art that I think Jon would appreciate.

I have left Phoenix for whats left of the Great Sonoran desert. I have became a denizen among denizen. I spend time with a fully employed rattlesnake and have made pets of a horny toad and a desert tortoise. Out here where the sky is clear and the stars shine I think I saw the son of Hal and David streaking across the sky,spewing data back to earth as they chase Voyager1.

Speaking of the desert and Jenny McCarthy, STATISTICALLY I am more likely to die face up in the sand from overuse of Viagra than a scorpion bite.

cal, shorter "Archibald":

It appears that humanity is cycling back to more reality-based religious sensibilities, based on the present and tactile cycles of Nature, life and death, and turning at last (for now) away from the fantastical delusions of afterlife philosophies...

As for Burning Man: When I read the accounts of this affair, I am reminded (as an ex-carny myself) of the cheesy sideshow of anything-on-a-stick cuisine and baroque step-right-up titillations. Couple this with the professed hipster elitism ("Are you in?") of the "veteran" Burners, and my gag reflex is in full effect. It's a fake city-experience, underwritten by a great deal of wealth from guilt-ridden poseurs taking a break from their capitalistic exploitation day-jobs.

Thanks for the explanation. I like this
"away from the fantastical delusions of afterlife philosophies..."

Burning Man: Yea but some cool structures. But then nothing man made rivals a great Sajuaro.

You're a braver man than I, cal. (Not to be confused with iCal). I can hardly bear to go out in the "country," much less the fringes of the metro Phoenix blob -- it's such a heartbreak to see what has been done to our beautiful state.

but rogue, cal has access to a club house, pool, shuffle board and especially a putting green.

I heard he has already approached several women asking if they wanted to hold his putter.

Okay Petro how about photos of Burning man around 5000 BC.

Burning Man: The populist answer to Bohemian Grove (the Cremation of Care ceremony bears an eerie resemblance to the denouement of BM.)

What starts out as wild and populist quickly succumbs to rules-making to preserve... something... and it takes on a life of its own, directly in opposition to the freedom it purports to celebrate.

Petro, Very interesting.
I called AZREBEL but he didnt know what denouement meant so I had to look it up in the dictionary.
So BM was okay but has now fell into the hands of the rich and famous? I did note that several San Francisco art groups spend all year and thousands of dollars to create the objects they take to burning man. However now many works are not destroyed but transported to cities for display. Its kinda like Bansky settling down and making a living?

Its kinda like Bansky settling down and making a living?

Kinda... it also could be kinda like me having sour grapes because I don't feel "in."

This sort of thing must be decided by someone other than me. :)

Changes in U.S. employment are complex and longstanding, and Mr. Talton has written eloquently on many of these changes in previous blogs. That said, I felt that the previous thread (The Permanent Crisis) was unfinished.

In particular, I thought it might be interesting, in evaluating the issue of the economic recovery, to examine which types of jobs have yet (as of August 2013) to recover their pre-recession levels (December 2007).

For figures on this I consulted The Employment Situation, a detailed monthly report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for the two months in question and compared figures.

I found that just three categories (or sub-categories) account for nearly all of the "jobs gap":

The largest is "Office and administrative support occupations", which is still roughly 2.5 million jobs behind the December 2007 level.

The next largest is "Construction and extraction occupations", which is still roughly 1.9 million jobs behind the December 2007 level.

The third category is "Production occupations" -- essentially manufacturing -- which is still about 1.1 million jobs behind the December 2007 level.

You'll notice that the sum of these jobs gaps adds to a total of 5.5 million, despite the fact that employment as a whole is only about 2 million behind the level of December 2007. That is because many other categories have gained jobs, so that 2 million is the net total jobs gap.

In other words, office workers, construction workers, and manufacturing workers are the three sectors still way behind December 2007 levels and accounting for the vast bulk of the jobs gap.

Sectors that have larger employment (more jobs) now relative to December 2007 include, as broad categories: Management, business, and financial operations occupations; professional and related occupations; service occupations; and sales occupations.

Of course, this says nothing about the quality of jobs added (a larger percentage of which are temp positions). What it does do, however, is give a starting point for a discussion about changing employment dynamics in the United States.

It isn't surprising that construction jobs tanked and haven't recovered after a housing and credit crash of the magnitude seen during and immediately following the recession. Bear in mind that construction job losses are the second largest category among those in the jobs gap. These jobs will recover once the housing market recovers.

Manufacturing jobs are the third largest loss in the jobs gap category. In my opinion this reflects not only layoffs during the recession, but the determination of manufacturing employers to further cut labor costs and attendant risks with additional automation and outsourcing; if so, this represents the tail of a long downward trend in manufacturing jobs in America and they likely will not be recovered.

As for the largest category, office and administrative support occupations, I'm a little surprised and not sure what to make of it. My guess would be that the clerical professions are seeing the same kind of management-led cost retrenchment that manufacturing has seen: more automation and outsourcing, to cut labor costs while maintaining productivity.

"As for the largest category, office and administrative support occupations, I'm a little surprised and not sure what to make of it. My guess would be that the clerical professions are seeing the same kind of management-led cost retrenchment that manufacturing has seen: more automation and outsourcing, to cut labor costs while maintaining productivity."
I'll buy that.

I agree.
"Manufacturing jobs are the third largest loss in the jobs gap category. In my opinion this reflects not only layoffs during the recession, but the determination of manufacturing employers to further cut labor costs and attendant risks with additional automation and outsourcing; if so, this represents the tail of a long downward trend in manufacturing jobs in America and they likely will not be recovered."

"These jobs will recover once the housing market recovers."
I am opposed to a recovery in building MORE houses. Less houses, less commercial building, less golf courses, more wilderness. More Wolves, more wild turkeys, more mountain lions,less people.

Petro, Maybe U would find painting peaceful, Churchill did. He wrote a book on how to paint, its used in University elementary educational classes.

Denouement - the process of removing nouns out of a paragraph.

LDS Institute is part of the public university ASU? What about an Islamic Institute for ASU funded by Saudi money?
Both have a history of polygamy, abhor alcohol, arose out of the desert, possess the same views on women and gays, and have a secretive, exclusive world view.

ASU fire expert.
For those who care about wilderness

Jmav, U catch the recent documentary on
Warren Jeffs. He and his tribe and the Kingston tribe (Mormon Mafia according to Rolling Stone Magazine) are the true believers. The boys in Salt Lake are just Faux Mormons.
Show me the gold.
The gold Mormon tablets.
I wonder if Joe Smith and Mohammed were smoking the same river bank weed.
And if you dont believe they own Arizona, you would be wrong.

and if U R an "Illegal"
start a biz

But the LDS did not sprout from the desert, it was grown in New York, Illinois and Missouri (via the fetid mind of that flim-flam man Joseph Smith), left for the great west, settled in the verdant Salt Lake Valley, and then shooed those pesky Natives away while simultaneously making them scapgoats.

Home affordability continue to drive suburbanization in the Phoenix metropolitan area:

"The average price of a new home in Estrella is $232,365, more than $75,000 below the Valley average. . .Through June, 36 percent of all new-home sales were in Mesa and Gilbert. The southwest Valley is second, with a 23 percent market share. But southwest has 6,549 available lots, more than any other part of metro Phoenix. Estrella isn’t the only growing community in the southwest Valley: Verrado in Buckeye is the top-selling master-planned community in the Valley."


Can someone explain to me the market dynamics of this? Why are new homes cheaper on the fringes of the city than in the center?

1. "Drive till you qualify"

2. You city lovers can talk until you are blue in the face, but bottom line, 0% of young families want their kids attending schools in the center city.

Perception or reality? Doesn't matter. It is what it is.

I don't know, Reb - the value of suburban life is being challenged by the slow, jerky and irreversible ratcheting of fuel costs. As for schooling fears: Each generation seems to be less culturally provincial (and less touchy about economic class, as the middle class gets decimated, one economic lightning strike at a time.)

Wow - I apologize for how over-the-top-emo that last bit was. I actually considered deleting it before I posted, but my impermeable sense of integrity compelled me to "leave it in," as we all like to imagine the editors would say.

Homes are cheaper on the fringes because the land is relatively cheap and development is subsidized by freeways and unconstrained by, say, growth boundaries or agriculture-only zoning. The negative externalities, such as rising heat island and more emissions from commuting, are not priced into these subdivisions.

Central Phoenix has a limited stock of attractive houses, especially period revival and bungalows. Most are located in appealing historic districts. These have proved to be remarkably valuable as they have been remodeled and restored. Hence, more expensive than the fringes. The size, shade and amenities of houses in North Central and Arcadia similarly make them pricey.

Unfortunately, much of older, closer-in Phoenix was laid down with inexpensive tract houses that haven't held their value, can't be easily restored to mid-century marvels, and are located in what are now impoverished barrios. They are inexpensive, but Anglos wouldn't live there.

Finally, land banking in the core keeps parcels off the market that could otherwise be down-zoned and turned into residential neighborhoods. This, in turn, helps keep prices for quality housing in the core higher than on the fringes.

Jon with the professional answer.
Emil, trick question? U do not have to be 70 to know, a white male, religious, anti gay, keep the race pure, would not move to SW Phoenix when he could live in Gilbert.
Some Gilbert white only history.
I recently became of aware of a small LDS construction company in Mesa that had a 40 million gross year. And they own more like company's. So how did they do that?

The assailants are all Devil Dogs, the Valley's most publicized gang and a subset of an older outfit in Gilbert known as White Power. They are a new kind of street thug, suburban children with all of life's advantages -

see racial and hate homo comments.

Petro, Middle class? did U mean to say poor and the 1 percent.

Mr. Talton wrote:

"Homes are cheaper on the fringes because the land is relatively cheap and development is subsidized by freeways..."

Two follow-up questions:

First, why is land relatively cheap on the fringes? I understand the land-banking argument regarding housing in the core, but I want to consider the broader, citywide picture.

Second, how do freeways subsidize development on the fringes, and how does this play into reduced prices for new homes on the fringes?

Thanks in advance...

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.


Post a comment

Your Information

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

My Photo

Your email address:

Powered by FeedBlitz